San Jose Bills Fan Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I posted in another topic how the Bills offense has almost gotten obsessive about getting the ball out quickly. This is generally viewed as a good thing but when taken to the extreme, I think it has its downside. Witness the last game against the Jets where Fitz was pressured but never sacked. By becoming fixated on avoiding the sack (risk), it seems to me that the Bills O is minimizing the amount of possible chunk yardage (reward) on passing downs. With no true field-stretching receiver, an average-armed quarterback, an offensive line missing its two top left tackles, and a mandate to throw the ball quickly, defenses are not under pressure from the Bills offense. They know that they can overplay the first two seconds of each pass play as an effective means of shutting down the Bills aerial attack. This same scenario is playing out in New England this year as the Welker/Tight End oriented offense is becoming less and less effective as teams clamp down on Brady and company. There is only one way an offense can counter this "pressure and press coverage" strategy. Like Aaron Rodgers or Big Ben, at some point it becomes incumbent on the quarterback to rely on his feet to extend plays to force defensive breakdowns. Via coaching/play calling, Fitz has to be given leeway to ad lib, allowing for longer developing plays that enable receivers to employ double moves and burn the defense for overplaying the front end of downs. The second part of this strategy to mobilize Fitz is to encourage him to run from time to time. If defenders are playing man instead of zone (which has been a growing tendency by Bills opponents), then it's easier for a quarterback to exploit the defense with scrambles. More defenders have their backs turned to the line of scrimmage. Here are some numbers I searched out that shows that Fitz is relying less and less on his good mobility to attack defenses: 2011: 260 pass attempts to 22 rushing attempts, scramble on 7.8% of pass plays, 2.8 carries per game, 6.6 rushing yards/game 2010: 441 pass attempts to 40 rushing attempts, scramble on 8.3% of pass plays, 3.1 carries per game, 20.7 rushing yards/game 2009: 227 pass attempts to 31 rushing attempts, scramble on 11.9% of pass plays, 3.1 carries per game,14.1 rushing yards per game 2008: 372 pass attempts to 60 rushing attempts, scramble on 13.9% of pass plays, 4.6 rushes per game, 23.4 rushing yards per game One or two scrambles for first downs or long throws on coverage breakdowns resulting from Fitz extending the play would make a world of difference in making the Bills offense much more difficult for teams to shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I think your onto something. Roethlisberger does this all the time, runs around extending the play and it works very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 But Fitz isn't a great scrambler and he can't throw it deep anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geno Smith's Arm Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I posted in another topic how the Bills offense has almost gotten obsessive about getting the ball out quickly. This is generally viewed as a good thing but when taken to the extreme, I think it has its downside. Witness the last game against the Jets where Fitz was pressured but never sacked. By becoming fixated on avoiding the sack (risk), it seems to me that the Bills O is minimizing the amount of possible chunk yardage (reward) on passing downs. With no true field-stretching receiver, an average-armed quarterback, an offensive line missing its two top left tackles, and a mandate to throw the ball quickly, defenses are not under pressure from the Bills offense. They know that they can overplay the first two seconds of each pass play as an effective means of shutting down the Bills aerial attack. This same scenario is playing out in New England this year as the Welker/Tight End oriented offense is becoming less and less effective as teams clamp down on Brady and company. There is only one way an offense can counter this "pressure and press coverage" strategy. Like Aaron Rodgers or Big Ben, at some point it becomes incumbent on the quarterback to rely on his feet to extend plays to force defensive breakdowns. Via coaching/play calling, Fitz has to be given leeway to ad lib, allowing for longer developing plays that enable receivers to employ double moves and burn the defense for overplaying the front end of downs. The second part of this strategy to mobilize Fitz is to encourage him to run from time to time. If defenders are playing man instead of zone (which has been a growing tendency by Bills opponents), then it's easier for a quarterback to exploit the defense with scrambles. More defenders have their backs turned to the line of scrimmage. Here are some numbers I searched out that shows that Fitz is relying less and less on his good mobility to attack defenses: 2011: 260 pass attempts to 22 rushing attempts, scramble on 7.8% of pass plays, 2.8 carries per game, 6.6 rushing yards/game 2010: 441 pass attempts to 40 rushing attempts, scramble on 8.3% of pass plays, 3.1 carries per game, 20.7 rushing yards/game 2009: 227 pass attempts to 31 rushing attempts, scramble on 11.9% of pass plays, 3.1 carries per game,14.1 rushing yards per game 2008: 372 pass attempts to 60 rushing attempts, scramble on 13.9% of pass plays, 4.6 rushes per game, 23.4 rushing yards per game One or two scrambles for first downs or long throws on coverage breakdowns resulting from Fitz extending the play would make a world of difference in making the Bills offense much more difficult for teams to shut down. They have been compensating for the O-line's injuries. They have the 3rd string LT and the 2nd string LG playing. When they have to face a good defense it complicates things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Griffin Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if Fitz isn't more banged up from the Redskins game than us fans are led to believe. This might account for the off day against the Jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray Beard Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if Fitz isn't more banged up from the Redskins game than us fans are led to believe. This might account for the off day against the Jets. I agree. Why no QB sneak on 4th and a foot? Why no zip on his passes, and no passes across the field? Why so few scrambles, even though he had some opportunities? Maybe his chest is still sore. He got hit a few times by the Jets, but nothing like when London Fletcher hit him. I hope an extra week to recover makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VADC Bills Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I posted in another topic how the Bills offense has almost gotten obsessive about getting the ball out quickly. This is generally viewed as a good thing but when taken to the extreme, I think it has its downside. Witness the last game against the Jets where Fitz was pressured but never sacked. By becoming fixated on avoiding the sack (risk), it seems to me that the Bills O is minimizing the amount of possible chunk yardage (reward) on passing downs. With no true field-stretching receiver, an average-armed quarterback, an offensive line missing its two top left tackles, and a mandate to throw the ball quickly, defenses are not under pressure from the Bills offense. They know that they can overplay the first two seconds of each pass play as an effective means of shutting down the Bills aerial attack. This same scenario is playing out in New England this year as the Welker/Tight End oriented offense is becoming less and less effective as teams clamp down on Brady and company. There is only one way an offense can counter this "pressure and press coverage" strategy. Like Aaron Rodgers or Big Ben, at some point it becomes incumbent on the quarterback to rely on his feet to extend plays to force defensive breakdowns. Via coaching/play calling, Fitz has to be given leeway to ad lib, allowing for longer developing plays that enable receivers to employ double moves and burn the defense for overplaying the front end of downs. The second part of this strategy to mobilize Fitz is to encourage him to run from time to time. If defenders are playing man instead of zone (which has been a growing tendency by Bills opponents), then it's easier for a quarterback to exploit the defense with scrambles. More defenders have their backs turned to the line of scrimmage. Here are some numbers I searched out that shows that Fitz is relying less and less on his good mobility to attack defenses: 2011: 260 pass attempts to 22 rushing attempts, scramble on 7.8% of pass plays, 2.8 carries per game, 6.6 rushing yards/game 2010: 441 pass attempts to 40 rushing attempts, scramble on 8.3% of pass plays, 3.1 carries per game, 20.7 rushing yards/game 2009: 227 pass attempts to 31 rushing attempts, scramble on 11.9% of pass plays, 3.1 carries per game,14.1 rushing yards per game 2008: 372 pass attempts to 60 rushing attempts, scramble on 13.9% of pass plays, 4.6 rushes per game, 23.4 rushing yards per game One or two scrambles for first downs or long throws on coverage breakdowns resulting from Fitz extending the play would make a world of difference in making the Bills offense much more difficult for teams to shut down. Good points a few more that I have noticed. Fitz is a mobile QB but I haven't seen any plays designed to move the pocket. We need a 1-2 punch in the back field. Fred Jackson and the rb position is being mismanaged. Braxton got carries behind OJ. Davis got carries behind Thurman but CJ can't get carries behind Jackson. If Gailey keeps running him the way he does Jackson will be banged up in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Here are some numbers I searched out Thanks for the thoughtful post. It reminded me of why TSW used to be such a great place to talk Bills football... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 Thanks Lurker. It seems like some more designed roll outs/moving pockets might be a nice adjustment for the offense. Also as others have mentioned in other threads, the Bills pound the ball a lot but don't seem to use much play action. Wasn't the long pass that Stevie dropped against the Steelers a play action? Regardless, using empty sets less often and using single back play action would work well for the Bills. Obviously Gailey doesn't need to be second guessed by the likes of us but this is what fans do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The problem with the scrambling statistics is, they go against the grain of success for Fitz. This is arguably his best year so far, and he's scrambling the least... so I'm not sure why making him scramble more would cause more success. I think what we are doing is generally fine as far as Fitz is concerned, I think our big issue is our WRs. We have Johnson and Nelson who are reliable possession receivers, but like you say, we have zero speed/deep threats. Jones, if he gets open, can't catch... and Spiller doesn't seem to be good enough to get on the field according to the coaches. Hopefully during the off season we can pick up a strong WR and keep Johnson around at the same time (I doubt it'll happen though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineMoxie Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 (edited) I agree. Why no QB sneak on 4th and a foot? Why no zip on his passes, and no passes across the field? Why so few scrambles, even though he had some opportunities? Maybe his chest is still sore. He got hit a few times by the Jets, but nothing like when London Fletcher hit him. I hope an extra week to recover makes a difference. I have no doubt that Fitz is banged up. So on fourth and inches when they should have run a QB sneak, why not put in Brad Smith? Aren't we paying him for this kind of thing anyway? I like Mega Mind and he's done a good job outcoaching a few of the best, but I expected to see more creativity in both the play calling and the utilization of players (e.g. CJ, Brad Smith, etc.). Edited November 12, 2011 by MaineMoxie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 (edited) I suspect many of his runs this year were actually out of the "victory" formation. Running for a 1st down or two would have definitley helped against the Jets. Edited November 12, 2011 by JESSEFEFFER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nostradamus Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Thanks Lurker. It seems like some more designed roll outs/moving pockets might be a nice adjustment for the offense. Also as others have mentioned in other threads, the Bills pound the ball a lot but don't seem to use much play action. Wasn't the long pass that Stevie dropped against the Steelers a play action? Regardless, using empty sets less often and using single back play action would work well for the Bills. Obviously Gailey doesn't need to be second guessed by the likes of us but this is what fans do. I remember watching the Cinci game and seeing us hand it to Jackson and having Fitzy fake an end-around to Spiller. Each time, the edge was wide open for what looked like a big gain, and I was surprised that we never gave CJ a shot at what looked like a play that was tailor made for him. Also, with the likes of Brad Smith, CJ, and Jackson, there has to be more possible plays out of the wildcat than the draws we see out of Smith. The offense has certainly slowed down after the first 3 games. It's definitely time for Gailey to introduce some new wrinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray Beard Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I have no doubt that Fitz is banged up. So on fourth and inches when they should have run a QB sneak, why not put in Brad Smith? Aren't we paying him for this kind of thing anyway? I like Mega Mind and he's done a good job outcoaching a few of the best, but I expected to see more creativity in both the play calling and the utilization of players (e.g. CJ, Brad Smith, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 (edited) The problem with the scrambling statistics is, they go against the grain of success for Fitz. This is arguably his best year so far, and he's scrambling the least... so I'm not sure why making him scramble more would cause more success. I think what we are doing is generally fine as far as Fitz is concerned, I think our big issue is our WRs. We have Johnson and Nelson who are reliable possession receivers, but like you say, we have zero speed/deep threats. Jones, if he gets open, can't catch... and Spiller doesn't seem to be good enough to get on the field according to the coaches. Hopefully during the off season we can pick up a strong WR and keep Johnson around at the same time (I doubt it'll happen though). But the offense has been less and less effective with each recent week. And regardless of the speed of the receivers, they will get open if they have enough time to work free. Especially when DBs are overplaying them early… leaving the coverage vulnerable when the play continues beyond the DB's internal clock. And I'm not interested in the offseason or next year. I'm thinking about what wrinkles will jump start the stagnant offense now. Edited November 12, 2011 by San Jose Bills Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I think Ryan took a shot with his defensive play against with the press at the line hoping we would feel pressured and react poorly. we did. As mentioned Fitz is hurt in body but he looked a bit gun shy as was Chan's play calling. A couple of deep pass attempts and some thing oddball from spiller were in order and i dont know at all why we did not use Brad. That still mystifies me. I think Chan gave himself a swift kick in the ass after this game! Overprotective i would call it. i expect that we begin to open it up here in the second half of the season. Nice post SJB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandemonium Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Is the offense in a slump at all though? I don't think it is. This year if you take away defensive touchdowns, the bills have scored 41, 38, 27, 13, 24, 24, 23, and 11 points in their games. Looks to me like a team that consistently scores on the mid 20's on offense, with a couple really good games and a couple really bad games thrown in. To say the offense has been less effective each passing week isn't accurate IMO, especially when one of the worst games for offensive point production was 5 games ago. I'm not saying I don't want them to get back to the production they had against kc and Oakland, but I think the trend we see in the numbers is more indicative of regression toward the mean than a stagnating offense at this point. If they put together a few more games in a row where they don't crack 20 on offense, I might be more inclined to agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The problem with the scrambling statistics is, they go against the grain of success for Fitz. This is arguably his best year so far, and he's scrambling the least... so I'm not sure why making him scramble more would cause more success. I think what we are doing is generally fine as far as Fitz is concerned, I think our big issue is our WRs. We have Johnson and Nelson who are reliable possession receivers, but like you say, we have zero speed/deep threats. Jones, if he gets open, can't catch... and Spiller doesn't seem to be good enough to get on the field according to the coaches. Hopefully during the off season we can pick up a strong WR and keep Johnson around at the same time (I doubt it'll happen though). Defenses are adjusting and playing 9 and 10 at the line pressing the WR's. The counter balance is to roll out and extend the play, screens. Get the defenders off the LOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fitzyflakes67 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Minus the Jets game the offensive production has been fine. Fitzy usually throwing between 200-300 yards, Jackson has been pretty consistent with 100 or near-100 yard games. Remember against Wash we were very close to scoring 30, same with the Giants game. Really just a few bad throws by Fitz screwed us, but it's not like we've been shut down and can't move the ball at all. If you expect us to score on each drive your dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Nice post San Jose. I completely agree with your analysis. The other thing that the two second release does is require perfect accuracy on the long ball because its thrown higher so the receiver has time to get to it. The one he threw to SJ over Revis was great, but its difficult to pull off. Our offense needs a shot in the arm. Bad for 6 quarters now. Cant wait to see what gailey has planned for tmrw..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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