K Gun Special Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I don't want to rain on your parade. But I did a little math. I started by calculating the average yards per attempt stat for the 15 most recent Fitz games to which you've alluded. It was 6.8. To put that into perspective, Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5. You need to have a career average of 7.2 to (in my book) be considered a marginal franchise QB, and an average of 7.4 to be considered a definite franchise QB. I then calculated Jim Kelly's average yards per attempt stat from the season you mentioned. It was 8.1. That number has "franchise QB" written all over it! The difference between 6.8 and 8.1 is big enough that Fitz's last 15 games are not in the same category as Kelly's best season as a Bill. That said, I'd argue that Fitz has played very well during his last two games. If he continues to look as good as he did against the Raiders and Chiefs, his yards per attempt stat will very likely improve. Not to mention it was 20 years ago. The NFL is far more pass happy now and the numbers skew higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramblin' Rob Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I was wrong. PTR See haters, this is so easy to do. I respected PTR as a poster before and now even more. As human beings we are wrong all the time. Good humans admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I don't want to rain on your parade. But I did a little math. I started by calculating the average yards per attempt stat for the 15 most recent Fitz games to which you've alluded. It was 6.8. To put that into perspective, Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5. You need to have a career average of 7.2 to (in my book) be considered a marginal franchise QB, and an average of 7.4 to be considered a definite franchise QB. I then calculated Jim Kelly's average yards per attempt stat from the season you mentioned. It was 8.1. That number has "franchise QB" written all over it! The difference between 6.8 and 8.1 is big enough that Fitz's last 15 games are not in the same category as Kelly's best season as a Bill. That said, I'd argue that Fitz has played very well during his last two games. If he continues to look as good as he did against the Raiders and Chiefs, his yards per attempt stat will very likely improve. Why did you choose ypa as a measure of a franchise QB ? Why did you come up with 7.2 ypa as a cut off (even if it is approximate) ? Factor in the poor OL performance and you see that Fitz has done very very well and not just in the past two games. Not to mention it was 20 years ago. The NFL is far more pass happy now and the numbers skew higher. Even assuming for a moment that the ypa statistic is a leading indicator of greatness, Tim Brady is 7.4 ypa, Manning is 7.6 ypa. I argue both are better QBs than Kelly was especially in the biggest game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Gun Special Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Why did you choose ypa as a measure of a franchise QB ? Why did you come up with 7.2 ypa as a cut off (even if it is approximate) ? Factor in the poor OL performance and you see that Fitz has done very very well and not just in the past two games. Even assuming for a moment that the ypa statistic is a leading indicator of greatness, Tim Brady is 7.4 ypa, Manning is 7.6 ypa. I argue both are better QBs than Kelly was especially in the biggest game. I didnt mean to reference YPC only, as i dont think its a sole indicator of anything. I meant numbers as a whole. Look up the top passers' numbers from the 90s and compare to today. Kelly was one of the best in the league, he had some of the best numbers in the league. 20 years ago. To compare that to Fitz now doesnt put anything in perspective, it doesnt show a fair comparison of Fitz's development. You need to breakdown where Fitz is in relation to other QBs in today's NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills14 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/125701-kelly-vs-fitzpatrickseriously/page__p__2079528__fromsearch__1#entry2079528 i remember when i tried to say this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 (edited) I don't want to rain on your parade. But I did a little math. I started by calculating the average yards per attempt stat for the 15 most recent Fitz games to which you've alluded. It was 6.8. To put that into perspective, Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5. You need to have a career average of 7.2 to (in my book) be considered a marginal franchise QB, and an average of 7.4 to be considered a definite franchise QB. I then calculated Jim Kelly's average yards per attempt stat from the season you mentioned. It was 8.1. That number has "franchise QB" written all over it! The difference between 6.8 and 8.1 is big enough that Fitz's last 15 games are not in the same category as Kelly's best season as a Bill. That said, I'd argue that Fitz has played very well during his last two games. If he continues to look as good as he did against the Raiders and Chiefs, his yards per attempt stat will very likely improve. Doesn't YPA have more to do with the type of offense you are running and not talent of the QB? Kelly was all about the long ball with Reed and Lofton. Chan and Fitz are carving up defenses with a thousand small cuts. In fact I would argue Fitz is BETTER than Kelly because when you have 5 receivers to follow you need better vision and decision-making. PTR Edited September 19, 2011 by PromoTheRobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 (edited) Why did you choose ypa as a measure of a franchise QB ? Why did you come up with 7.2 ypa as a cut off (even if it is approximate) ? Factor in the poor OL performance and you see that Fitz has done very very well and not just in the past two games. Even assuming for a moment that the ypa statistic is a leading indicator of greatness, Tim Brady is 7.4 ypa, Manning is 7.6 ypa. I argue both are better QBs than Kelly was especially in the biggest game. In answer to your first question, I chose yards per attempt as my main measurement after I saw how flawed the quarterback rating system was. John Elway had a QB rating of 79.9, as compared to 79.2 for Kelly Holcomb. Something seemed wrong with this. But Elway's yards per attempt was 7.1, as compared to 6.6 for Holcomb. That's a commanding difference! (And yes, I realize Elway's 7.1 yards per attempt is 0.1 YPA below my cutoff for franchise QBs. But he played in a different era, and his supporting cast was often hit-or-miss at best.) Quarterback rating unfairly rewards QBs like Holcomb who dump the ball off a lot, or who otherwise rely on short, high percentage passes. It unfairly punishes quarterbacks like Elway who put more emphasis on higher risk, higher reward type throws. If you take quarterback rating, and get rid of completion percentage (the source of these problems) what you're left with is yards per attempt, plus TD percentage and INT percentage. All three of these things are useful stats, with yards per attempt being the most useful. It generally works well: I've seen few or no cases where a good or great QB had a lousy yards per attempt, or where a lousy QB had an impressive yards per attempt. Yards per attempt is to quarterbacks what yards per carry is to running backs. Both stats are very hard to inflate! After looking at modern era QBs' stats, I saw that those who were below 7.2 yards per attempt were almost never franchise QBs. QBs in the 7.2 - 7.3 range are often franchise QBs. And QBs with an average of 7.4 or higher are always franchise QBs. I agree that Brady and Peyton Manning are better QBs than Jim Kelly. The 8.1 yards per attempt figure for Kelly is from his best season ever, and does not represent his career average. That career average is 7.4 yards per attempt; which correctly indicates he's worse than Manning, but incorrectly indicates that he's equivalent to Brady. No statistical measure is perfect. During his time with the Bills, Kelly had a very good OL, a Hall of Fame RB in the form of Thurman Thomas, a very good receiving corps, and a good TE. Neither Manning or Brady have typically had an offensive supporting cast as good as that. When you compare any of Kelly's offensive stats with Manning or Brady, Kelly's numbers are going to slightly overstate the quality of his play. Edited September 19, 2011 by Edwards' Arm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Man, maybe I could have supported Fitzy back when he was the number one QB in the League. ...but now that he's number 6????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Fitz's stats over the last 15 games played: 300/512 [58.5%] 3472 yds 30 TDs 16 INTs Jim Kelly's best season as a Bill - 1991 - 15 games played: 304/474 [64.1%] 3844 yds 33 TDs 17 INTs If we drafted a QB #1 and he had these stats we'd be dancing jig that we found our new "franchise guy." Fitz is darn close to Kelly's best year as a Bill right now. But in the name of full disclosure I have to admit that I did not think Fitz would be this good when he took over last year. I was wrong. PTR Hey Promo, remember this thread?...LOL http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/121711-bills-fans-should-take-ryan-fitzpatrick-seriously/ Ouch, I just hurt my shoulder patting myself on the back! Hey, I'm glad you finally came around to my line of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 Hey Promo, remember this thread?...LOL http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/121711-bills-fans-should-take-ryan-fitzpatrick-seriously/ Ouch, I just hurt my shoulder patting myself on the back! Hey, I'm glad you finally came around to my line of thinking. And my doubting words follow yours. May I have to sit next to a fan with bad BO as penence for my sin. You sir, on the other hand, are a visionary. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Fitz is NOT Kelly. But he's not Rob Johnson either. I'll admit that I was wrong about fitzgenious. He's a football player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I love your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 And my doubting words follow yours. May I have to sit next to a fan with bad BO as penence for my sin. You sir, on the other hand, are a visionary. PTR Go in peace Bills brother, you have been fully absolved. I had faith, but of course being a Bills fan there was doubt over there hanging on my other shoulder. I just thought that something clicked in for Fitzpatrick at the end of the 2009 season that was carrying over into 2010. This 2011 start is truly amazing and beyond even my high expectations. I hate to say it so soon into the season, but he really has the look of someone who's arrived as a franchise QB. Here's hoping we thoroughly enjoy watching the confirmation of Fitzpatrick in this regard the rest of the season and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whites Bay Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Echoing PTR's point, that's the one thing I see lacking in Fitzpatrick's game - the bomb. It might turn out to be an Achilles Heel, in that teams may eventually work to take away the underneath game. Countering this logic, of course, is the sense that he seems to have great field vision, and is able to spread the ball around and NOT get stuck in a predictable groove a la Losman-to-Evans. There's another comparison that should be made between Kelly and Fitzpatrick, and I'm too damn lazy or incompetent to do the research. Question - did the K-Gun offense ever successfully complete 5 touchdowns in 5 drives? I don't think they did during the 1990 AFC Championship, and I don't think they did in the "Never had to punt" game against San Francisco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 In answer to your first question, I chose yards per attempt as my main measurement after I saw how flawed the quarterback rating system was. John Elway had a QB rating of 79.9, as compared to 79.2 for Kelly Holcomb. Something seemed wrong with this. But Elway's yards per attempt was 7.1, as compared to 6.6 for Holcomb. That's a commanding difference! (And yes, I realize Elway's 7.1 yards per attempt is 0.1 YPA below my cutoff for franchise QBs. But he played in a different era, and his supporting cast was often hit-or-miss at best.) Quarterback rating unfairly rewards QBs like Holcomb who dump the ball off a lot, or who otherwise rely on short, high percentage passes. It unfairly punishes quarterbacks like Elway who put more emphasis on higher risk, higher reward type throws. If you take quarterback rating, and get rid of completion percentage (the source of these problems) what you're left with is yards per attempt, plus TD percentage and INT percentage. All three of these things are useful stats, with yards per attempt being the most useful. It generally works well: I've seen few or no cases where a good or great QB had a lousy yards per attempt, or where a lousy QB had an impressive yards per attempt. Yards per attempt is to quarterbacks what yards per carry is to running backs. Both stats are very hard to inflate! After looking at modern era QBs' stats, I saw that those who were below 7.2 yards per attempt were almost never franchise QBs. QBs in the 7.2 - 7.3 range are often franchise QBs. And QBs with an average of 7.4 or higher are always franchise QBs. I agree that Brady and Peyton Manning are better QBs than Jim Kelly. The 8.1 yards per attempt figure for Kelly is from his best season ever, and does not represent his career average. That career average is 7.4 yards per attempt; which correctly indicates he's worse than Manning, but incorrectly indicates that he's equivalent to Brady. No statistical measure is perfect. During his time with the Bills, Kelly had a very good OL, a Hall of Fame RB in the form of Thurman Thomas, a very good receiving corps, and a good TE. Neither Manning or Brady have typically had an offensive supporting cast as good as that. When you compare any of Kelly's offensive stats with Manning or Brady, Kelly's numbers are going to slightly overstate the quality of his play. Frankly, kellys best year would be middle of the pack statistically today, and top 5 when he played. In this era he'd have much better stats due to several rules changes. Passing records are getting killed for a reason. We could also look at his best 16 games, instead of best season for accuracy of comparison too. I like fitz, just not that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThurmasThoman Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 the last interview i read with fitzpatrick, we was making analogies to sim city 2000. he is my favorite professional athlete since tiger woods in his prime/pre auto crash, and would be if he was the qb of another team. i like that he wears his wedding band on the field, i like that he doesn't mind being smart, i like that the first thing that comes to his mind when answering questions is video games. he's the man. and he happens to be the starting qb of my favorite sports franchise. i'm just going to enjoy the ride. i hope we win, i hope we extend him, i hope he wins us a ring, i hope he makes our wall of fame. he's the man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartacus Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I don't want to rain on your parade. But I did a little math. I started by calculating the average yards per attempt stat for the 15 most recent Fitz games to which you've alluded. It was 6.8. To put that into perspective, Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5. You need to have a career average of 7.2 to (in my book) be considered a marginal franchise QB, and an average of 7.4 to be considered a definite franchise QB. I then calculated Jim Kelly's average yards per attempt stat from the season you mentioned. It was 8.1. That number has "franchise QB" written all over it! The difference between 6.8 and 8.1 is big enough that Fitz's last 15 games are not in the same category as Kelly's best season as a Bill. That said, I'd argue that Fitz has played very well during his last two games. If he continues to look as good as he did against the Raiders and Chiefs, his yards per attempt stat will very likely improve. it won't if he doesn't throw the ball down field and this is where the Bills front office has hamstrung this franchise by providing Fitz an OL that can't protect him long enough to go down field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chimp Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Jim was one of the best QBs in the league during his era, and his numbers were always tops. Comparing Fitz's stats to a QB from 20 years ago doesn't show much. Also youre right, we would be dancing the jig if a new guy was putting up those numbers. Our guy is in his 7th year. Such a misleading post when you put the numbers next to each other. Why dont you show us how Fitz compares to other QBs over that span??? Did someone fart? Maybe it was just this post that was horribly rank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clippers of Nfl Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Fitz's stats over the last 15 games played: 300/512 [58.5%] 3472 yds 30 TDs 16 INTs Jim Kelly's best season as a Bill - 1991 - 15 games played: 304/474 [64.1%] 3844 yds 33 TDs 17 INTs If we drafted a QB #1 and he had these stats we'd be dancing jig that we found our new "franchise guy." Fitz is darn close to Kelly's best year as a Bill right now. But in the name of full disclosure I have to admit that I did not think Fitz would be this good when he took over last year. I was wrong. PTR i have liked him for a while collinsworth was sent by bengal nation to say, "GET HIM BACK" hell no bengal nation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Bengals are pretty excited about Dalton, I doubt they want Fitz back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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