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Jacksonville to release Garrard


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Good post Dave. Maybe this stuff is partially linked to the global economic collapse, but one would think that the people who would be least affected by it would be the rich NFL owners. And at his age, how could economic conditions matter to RW? The man is guaranteed a profit from the TV contract alone, no? And, WNY was already having tough times.

 

I'm sorry to edge off topic. I'm still a bit dazed form the JW/NGU threads. And did you read the summary of the Nix interview that eball posted? It directly contradicts what these guys said.

Who are you (and of course others) inclined to believe more, Nix or NGU/JW? As for me, I lean towards believing JW/NGU as far as the Evans trade being an economic decision, and the meddling by Mr. Wilson.

I believe gnu/jw, but I do take NGU's point that Littman has more power than overdorf. I'll check eball's summary right now.

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Why would they decide to trade him after his salary goes down from $7 million to $3 million? For the record, I didn't like the trade because I think Evans is more of a help to this team than a 4th rounder. But maybe the coaches didn't simply like Evans' game. Gailey always talked about him improving his route running.

 

I love Evans and he is one of my favorite Bills ever. But what happened when we trade Moulds years ago? Time will tell how good of a trade this was but I don't believe it was for economic reasons.

 

And Garrad is one of the most underrated QBs in the NFL. He has had garbage at receiver his whole career. If a team like the 49ers sign him, they would make a playoff push. And Gabbert is Trent Edwards, Jr.

 

May be true...in 2 years. But no one can make that comparison now, not even the Jax coaching staff who sees the guy first hand.

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Now THAT'S what I call "cost cutting." I can't see this having anything but a huge negative impact on their locker room. I know they'll start McCown but this still puts the pressure squarely on Gabbert to perform better, faster.

 

I'm pissed if I'm a Jags fan.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

Wow! And people around here think we have problems. Imagine being a Jags fan today. It would be a WTF moment.

 

 

Wayne Weaver is cheap. I'd sign him as a backup and dump Thigpen.

 

PTR

 

There are so few Jags fans that this wont make any difference. Only 23 people in Jax even care about this and they are transplants from garrads hometown.

I think the owner is scrambling looking at so many blackouts and how he would have to pay and is deciding simply that he's not doing it. I suspect he is actively on the phone with Goodell telling him to get him in touch with the folks in LA he's had enough of this.

Then he will make the league or LA guarantee sellouts for five years or something.

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I thought Garrard's contract was one of the craziest NFL contracts ever when he got it.

 

Del Rio has been told that if he doesn't make the playoffs, he's fired. Now he's got to do it with McKown/Gabbert? He's a goner.

 

 

Blaine Gabbert is the QB of the future in Jacksonville,the writing was on the wall for Garrard.

 

This move solidifies the position of Jags HC Del Rio in my opinion.

Edited by Fig Newton
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Good post Dave. Maybe this stuff is partially linked to the global economic collapse, but one would think that the people who would be least affected by it would be the rich NFL owners. And at his age, how could economic conditions matter to RW? The man is guaranteed a profit from the TV contract alone, no? And, WNY was already having tough times.

 

I'm sorry to edge off topic. I'm still a bit dazed form the JW/NGU threads. And did you read the summary of the Nix interview that eball posted? It directly contradicts what these guys said.

Who are you (and of course others) inclined to believe more, Nix or NGU/JW? As for me, I lean towards believing JW/NGU as far as the Evans trade being an economic decision, and the meddling by Mr. Wilson.

It's my understanding that both Buddy Nix and John Wawrow agree that Overdorf was responsible for negotiating the Lee Evans trade. There has been some speculation that Overdorf and/or Littman may have initiated the Lee Evans trade for financial reasons. But I have not seen Wawrow or any other credible source assert this as a known fact. People were extrapolating from what we do know (that Overdorf negotiated the Evans trade).

 

I've seen the Bills foolishly overpay for second- or third-rate players like Peerless Price part 2, Langston Walker, Larry Triplett, Cornell Green, etc. I've seen the Bills foolishly let some of their best players go (Antoine Winfield, Jabari Greer, etc.). Even if the Bills had established a budget of (say) 90% of the cap, the team could have been much better run had they spent their budgeted money wisely.

 

Even this most recent offseason, the Bills attempted to sign Clabo or Colon to upgrade the RT position. Had one of those efforts been successful, it would partially or completely negated whatever money they're saving from the Lee Evans trade. It's not like a RT signing is a more-flash-than-substance, put-fans-in-the-seats, Terrell Owens style signing.

 

Back in the late '90s, the Bills were in salary cap trouble because they were spending too much money on players. But in more recent years the Bills have spent well below the salary cap (as have many other teams). The general trend in the NFL has been to spend less than the salary cap, in large part because the salary cap has grown so much faster than have shared revenues. Three possible reasons occur to me as to why the Bills are no longer near the salary cap limit.

 

1) Ralph is unwilling to spend the money.

 

2) Ralph is unable to spend the money because of the Bills being a small market team.

 

3) The Bills have drafted poorly in recent years, and so have had few players deserving of big contracts.

 

I suspect the truth may be a combination of the above three points. In particular I'd like to expand on point #3. Starting in 1997, the Bills' first round picks have been the following:

 

1997: Antowain Smith, 23rd overall

1998: none (traded away for Rob Johnson)

1999: Antoine Winfield, 23rd overall

2000: Erik Flowers, 26th overall

2001: Nate Clements, 21st overall

2002: Mike Williams, 4th overall

2003: traded for Drew Bledsoe

2003: Willis McGahee, 23rd overall

2004: Lee Evans, 13th overall

2004: JP Losman, 22nd overall

2005: none

2006: Donte Whitner, 8th overall

2006: John McCargo, 26th overall

2007: Marshawn Lynch, 12th overall

2008: Leodis McKelvin, 11th overall

2009: Aaron Maybin, 11th overall

2009: Eric Wood, 28th overall

2010: CJ Spiller, 9th overall

 

There are only two or three guys on this list who have met or exceeded the expectations associated with their draft positions. Winfield, Clements, and maybe Eric Wood. Maybe. Everyone else was either a mild disappointment, a moderate disappointment, a major disappointment, an outright bust, or (in the case of Spiller) too early to tell for sure. With drafts like this, it makes sense that the Bills would be far below the salary cap. Almost nobody on the above list is worth throwing major money at.

Edited by Edwards' Arm
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Why would they decide to trade him after his salary goes down from $7 million to $3 million? For the record, I didn't like the trade because I think Evans is more of a help to this team than a 4th rounder. But maybe the coaches didn't simply like Evans' game. Gailey always talked about him improving his route running.

 

I love Evans and he is one of my favorite Bills ever. But what happened when we trade Moulds years ago? Time will tell how good of a trade this was but I don't believe it was for economic reasons.

 

And Garrad is one of the most underrated QBs in the NFL. He has had garbage at receiver his whole career. If a team like the 49ers sign him, they would make a playoff push. And Gabbert is Trent Edwards, Jr.

its only a personel decision when its another team making the movebecause rumors come out that either the coaches weren't happy with his play, or in this case, the locker room hated him. When Buffalo makes a move, because the coaches don't like what he provides on the field, its all about cost cutting, even though his salary went down by more then half, and the Bills just paid out his bonus before trading him.

 

As for the comparrison to Edwards, the new coaching staff gave him a chance to atleast show what he could do in their system in a real NFL game instead of just pre-season, and I don't think anyone could argue that Edwards should have continued to start, or was working out in Chans offence. the jags on the other hand have started garrard for many seasons and know what they have in him, plus they are still running the same offence he is used to. This is much worse of a move then the Edwards move by the Bills last year and really sets the team back because he has shown before he is a good QB. it was about as dumb as the jauron canning his OC a week before the season starts and giving the job to an inexperienced QB coach

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Now THAT'S what I call "cost cutting." I can't see this having anything but a huge negative impact on their locker room. I know they'll start McCown but this still puts the pressure squarely on Gabbert to perform better, faster.

 

I'm pissed if I'm a Jags fan.

 

GO BILLS!!!

So similar to trading Lee Evans, cutting Langston Walker just days before the season a few years ago. Some teams are out to win, some are out to make money. Gotta be crappy atmospheres in those locker rooms.

 

It's my understanding that both Buddy Nix and John Wawrow agree that Overdorf was responsible for negotiating the Lee Evans trade. There has been some speculation that Overdorf and/or Littman may have initiated the Lee Evans trade for financial reasons. But I have not seen Wawrow or any other credible source assert this as a known fact. People were extrapolating from what we do know (that Overdorf negotiated the Evans trade).

 

I've seen the Bills foolishly overpay for second- or third-rate players like Peerless Price part 2, Langston Walker, Larry Triplett, Cornell Green, etc. I've seen the Bills foolishly let some of their best players go (Antoine Winfield, Jabari Greer, etc.). Even if the Bills had established a budget of (say) 90% of the cap, the team could have been much better run had they spent their budgeted money wisely.

 

Even this most recent offseason, the Bills attempted to sign Clabo or Colon to upgrade the RT position. Had one of those efforts been successful, it would partially or completely negated whatever money they're saving from the Lee Evans trade. It's not like a RT signing is a more-flash-than-substance, put-fans-in-the-seats, Terrell Owens style signing.

 

Back in the late '90s, the Bills were in salary cap trouble because they were spending too much money on players. But in more recent years the Bills have spent well below the salary cap (as have many other teams). The general trend in the NFL has been to spend less than the salary cap, in large part because the salary cap has grown so much faster than have shared revenues. Three possible reasons occur to me as to why the Bills are no longer near the salary cap limit.

 

1) Ralph is unwilling to spend the money.

 

2) Ralph is unable to spend the money because of the Bills being a small market team.

 

3) The Bills have drafted poorly in recent years, and so have had few players deserving of big contracts.

 

I suspect the truth may be a combination of the above three points. In particular I'd like to expand on point #3. Starting in 1997, the Bills' first round picks have been the following:

 

1997: Antowain Smith, 23rd overall

1998: none (traded away for Rob Johnson)

1999: Antoine Winfield, 23rd overall

2000: Erik Flowers, 26th overall

2001: Nate Clements, 21st overall

2002: Mike Williams, 4th overall

2003: traded for Drew Bledsoe

2003: Willis McGahee, 23rd overall

2004: Lee Evans, 13th overall

2004: JP Losman, 22nd overall

2005: none

2006: Donte Whitner, 8th overall

2006: John McCargo, 26th overall

2007: Marshawn Lynch, 12th overall

2008: Leodis McKelvin, 11th overall

2009: Aaron Maybin, 11th overall

2009: Eric Wood, 28th overall

2010: CJ Spiller, 9th overall

 

There are only two or three guys on this list who have met or exceeded the expectations associated with their draft positions. Winfield, Clements, and maybe Eric Wood. Maybe. Everyone else was either a mild disappointment, a moderate disappointment, a major disappointment, an outright bust, or (in the case of Spiller) too early to tell for sure. With drafts like this, it makes sense that the Bills would be far below the salary cap. Almost nobody on the above list is worth throwing major money at.

Personal feelings aside, I am not sure how Eric Wood has met or exceeded expectations, when he has been nothing yet but an average lineman when healthy, but Lynch and McGahee haven't, even though they both played in Pro Bowls for the Bills and had multiple 1,000 seasons? I don't even think that Winfield or Clements made the Pro Bowl at all themselves while with the Bills.

 

Yes, let's change QB's before the fist game of the season. That'll make an impact! <_<

 

PTR

Kinda like changing Left Tackles and Offensive Coordinator right before the season. There are a few classy organizations in the league, aren't there?

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Blaine Gabbert is the QB of the future in Jacksonville,the writing was on the wall for Garrard.

 

This move solidifies the position of Jags HC Del Rio in my opinion.

Del Rio, a mediocre HC at best, will be gone this year. No playoffs (with Gabbert), no job next year--the writing has just been put on the wall for Clueless Jack.

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Some teams are out to win, some are out to make money.

Here is a newsflash - all teams are out to make money. They are business enterprises afterall. Some teams have much more money to spend and still be profitable. Jacksonville is at the bottom of the barrel revenue wise, a failing franchise. The bills have avoided the bottom due in part to the Toronto deal and in part because there are real fans (unlike Jacksonville)who continue to support the team by coming to games. So even though Buffalo has cheap ticket prices, no personal seat licenses, and a dearth of corporate sponsorship dollars, they are able to stay in business. The Jags cannot afford an $8 million QB who deoes not figure in their long term plans. No surpise there.

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It's my understanding that both Buddy Nix and John Wawrow agree that Overdorf was responsible for negotiating the Lee Evans trade. There has been some speculation that Overdorf and/or Littman may have initiated the Lee Evans trade for financial reasons. But I have not seen Wawrow or any other credible source assert this as a known fact. People were extrapolating from what we do know (that Overdorf negotiated the Evans trade).

 

I've seen the Bills foolishly overpay for second- or third-rate players like Peerless Price part 2, Langston Walker, Larry Triplett, Cornell Green, etc. I've seen the Bills foolishly let some of their best players go (Antoine Winfield, Jabari Greer, etc.). Even if the Bills had established a budget of (say) 90% of the cap, the team could have been much better run had they spent their budgeted money wisely.

 

Even this most recent offseason, the Bills attempted to sign Clabo or Colon to upgrade the RT position. Had one of those efforts been successful, it would partially or completely negated whatever money they're saving from the Lee Evans trade. It's not like a RT signing is a more-flash-than-substance, put-fans-in-the-seats, Terrell Owens style signing.

 

Back in the late '90s, the Bills were in salary cap trouble because they were spending too much money on players. But in more recent years the Bills have spent well below the salary cap (as have many other teams). The general trend in the NFL has been to spend less than the salary cap, in large part because the salary cap has grown so much faster than have shared revenues. Three possible reasons occur to me as to why the Bills are no longer near the salary cap limit.

 

1) Ralph is unwilling to spend the money.

 

2) Ralph is unable to spend the money because of the Bills being a small market team.

 

3) The Bills have drafted poorly in recent years, and so have had few players deserving of big contracts.

 

I suspect the truth may be a combination of the above three points. In particular I'd like to expand on point #3. Starting in 1997, the Bills' first round picks have been the following:

 

1997: Antowain Smith, 23rd overall

1998: none (traded away for Rob Johnson)

1999: Antoine Winfield, 23rd overall

2000: Erik Flowers, 26th overall

2001: Nate Clements, 21st overall

2002: Mike Williams, 4th overall

2003: traded for Drew Bledsoe

2003: Willis McGahee, 23rd overall

2004: Lee Evans, 13th overall

2004: JP Losman, 22nd overall

2005: none

2006: Donte Whitner, 8th overall

2006: John McCargo, 26th overall

2007: Marshawn Lynch, 12th overall

2008: Leodis McKelvin, 11th overall

2009: Aaron Maybin, 11th overall

2009: Eric Wood, 28th overall

2010: CJ Spiller, 9th overall

 

There are only two or three guys on this list who have met or exceeded the expectations associated with their draft positions. Winfield, Clements, and maybe Eric Wood. Maybe. Everyone else was either a mild disappointment, a moderate disappointment, a major disappointment, an outright bust, or (in the case of Spiller) too early to tell for sure. With drafts like this, it makes sense that the Bills would be far below the salary cap. Almost nobody on the above list is worth throwing major money at.

 

I disagree pretty strongly about one player: Antowain Smith ( http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAn00.htm ). To get at his most important stats, you need to look at the playoff box scores in 2001 and 2003. In both seasons, he never ran fewer than 15 times, and he averaged around 75 yards per game in six playoff contests (including two super bowls). He played very well in both of the Super Bowls, rushing for 92 and 83 yards in the two games. He was a draft success even if his best production came with the Pats.

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Personal feelings aside, I am not sure how Eric Wood has met or exceeded expectations, when he has been nothing yet but an average lineman when healthy, but Lynch and McGahee haven't, even though they both played in Pro Bowls for the Bills and had multiple 1,000 seasons? I don't even think that Winfield or Clements made the Pro Bowl at all themselves while with the Bills.

I gave Wood the benefit of the doubt because of his injury. Maybe I should have listed him in the "too early to tell" category.

 

Lynch was traded away after three years with the Bills. In theory, a RB's trade value should be at its high water mark around this point in his career. It's a long enough time for other GMs to see what he can do. A RB's trade value will presumably start to decline after the three year mark because of wear and tear. After Lynch's three years with the Bills, the other GMs in the league collectively decided he wasn't worth more than a fourth and sixth round pick. (Or a third round pick, if those running the Saints are believed). Assuming the Saints really did offer a third rounder for Lynch, and assuming their pick would have been about #20 in the third round, that pick would have been worth 170 points. The 12th overall pick is worth 1200 points. At most, the Bills could have had 14% of the value of their original pick, which I would classify as a "major disappointment."

 

McGahee never played in a Pro Bowl for the Bills (but did play in one for the Ravens). Like Lynch, McGahee was traded away after he'd been in the league at what should have been the peak of his trade value. He had his initial injured rookie season, plus three active seasons. He was traded away for two third rounders and a seventh round pick. The 15th pick in the third round is worth 195 points, and the 15th pick in the seventh round is worth 8.6 points. That's a total of 398.4 points. The 23rd pick in the draft is worth 760 points; which means McGahee returned about 52% of his initial value when traded away. I'd put that in the "moderate disappointment" category. The Lynch pick was three times as disappointing in terms of squandered draft day value. (As an aside, Baltimore's third round picks may have been less good than 15th overall; so the 52% value retained may be a best case scenario for McGahee.)

 

Antowain Winfield was by far the best football player on the earlier list, and amazingly is still a starter in the league today. The Bills could put him on an island against the other team's best WR, and know that over the course of the game that WR would not get out of hand. He was also a much better tackler than any CB has the right to be. If he had a weakness, it was his inability to catch potential INTs. A lot of fans base their Pro Bowl voting on whichever DB has the most INTs. Winfield clearly played at a Pro Bowl level while with the Bills, but didn't always receive the recognition he clearly deserved. The Bills got a very good return for the 23rd overall pick in the draft. (Or would have, had they not let Winfield go first-contract-and-out.)

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I disagree pretty strongly about one player: Antowain Smith ( http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAn00.htm ). To get at his most important stats, you need to look at the playoff box scores in 2001 and 2003. In both seasons, he never ran fewer than 15 times, and he averaged around 75 yards per game in six playoff contests (including two super bowls). He played very well in both of the Super Bowls, rushing for 92 and 83 yards in the two games. He was a draft success even if his best production came with the Pats.

Antowain Smith's career average yards per carry is 3.9. That includes his four years with the Bills, three years with the Patriots, and a couple of partial seasons with some other teams as his career wound down. The Bills' OL was better at run blocking than pass protection, and the Patriots' OL was good. 3.9 yards per carry doesn't really seem all that impressive to me. Other than his rookie year, he never averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in any given season. By contrast, Fred Jackson's career average is 4.4 yards per carry.

 

I haven't yet figured out who Smith's backups were during the late '90s. But in the 2000 season, he averaged 3.5 yards a carry for Buffalo, while Sammy Morris and Shawn Bryson each averaged 3.7 yards a carry for the Bills. There's a reason why Smith was simply released instead of being traded away.

Edited by Edwards' Arm
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+1 excellent post.

 

It's my understanding that both Buddy Nix and John Wawrow agree that Overdorf was responsible for negotiating the Lee Evans trade. There has been some speculation that Overdorf and/or Littman may have initiated the Lee Evans trade for financial reasons. But I have not seen Wawrow or any other credible source assert this as a known fact. People were extrapolating from what we do know (that Overdorf negotiated the Evans trade).

 

I've seen the Bills foolishly overpay for second- or third-rate players like Peerless Price part 2, Langston Walker, Larry Triplett, Cornell Green, etc. I've seen the Bills foolishly let some of their best players go (Antoine Winfield, Jabari Greer, etc.). Even if the Bills had established a budget of (say) 90% of the cap, the team could have been much better run had they spent their budgeted money wisely.

 

Even this most recent offseason, the Bills attempted to sign Clabo or Colon to upgrade the RT position. Had one of those efforts been successful, it would partially or completely negated whatever money they're saving from the Lee Evans trade. It's not like a RT signing is a more-flash-than-substance, put-fans-in-the-seats, Terrell Owens style signing.

 

Back in the late '90s, the Bills were in salary cap trouble because they were spending too much money on players. But in more recent years the Bills have spent well below the salary cap (as have many other teams). The general trend in the NFL has been to spend less than the salary cap, in large part because the salary cap has grown so much faster than have shared revenues. Three possible reasons occur to me as to why the Bills are no longer near the salary cap limit.

 

1) Ralph is unwilling to spend the money.

 

2) Ralph is unable to spend the money because of the Bills being a small market team.

 

3) The Bills have drafted poorly in recent years, and so have had few players deserving of big contracts.

 

I suspect the truth may be a combination of the above three points. In particular I'd like to expand on point #3. Starting in 1997, the Bills' first round picks have been the following:

 

1997: Antowain Smith, 23rd overall

1998: none (traded away for Rob Johnson)

1999: Antoine Winfield, 23rd overall

2000: Erik Flowers, 26th overall

2001: Nate Clements, 21st overall

2002: Mike Williams, 4th overall

2003: traded for Drew Bledsoe

2003: Willis McGahee, 23rd overall

2004: Lee Evans, 13th overall

2004: JP Losman, 22nd overall

2005: none

2006: Donte Whitner, 8th overall

2006: John McCargo, 26th overall

2007: Marshawn Lynch, 12th overall

2008: Leodis McKelvin, 11th overall

2009: Aaron Maybin, 11th overall

2009: Eric Wood, 28th overall

2010: CJ Spiller, 9th overall

 

There are only two or three guys on this list who have met or exceeded the expectations associated with their draft positions. Winfield, Clements, and maybe Eric Wood. Maybe. Everyone else was either a mild disappointment, a moderate disappointment, a major disappointment, an outright bust, or (in the case of Spiller) too early to tell for sure. With drafts like this, it makes sense that the Bills would be far below the salary cap. Almost nobody on the above list is worth throwing major money at.

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I gave Wood the benefit of the doubt because of his injury. Maybe I should have listed him in the "too early to tell" category.

 

Lynch was traded away after three years with the Bills. In theory, a RB's trade value should be at its high water mark around this point in his career. It's a long enough time for other GMs to see what he can do. A RB's trade value will presumably start to decline after the three year mark because of wear and tear. After Lynch's three years with the Bills, the other GMs in the league collectively decided he wasn't worth more than a fourth and sixth round pick. (Or a third round pick, if those running the Saints are believed). Assuming the Saints really did offer a third rounder for Lynch, and assuming their pick would have been about #20 in the third round, that pick would have been worth 170 points. The 12th overall pick is worth 1200 points. At most, the Bills could have had 14% of the value of their original pick, which I would classify as a "major disappointment."

 

McGahee never played in a Pro Bowl for the Bills (but did play in one for the Ravens). Like Lynch, McGahee was traded away after he'd been in the league at what should have been the peak of his trade value. He had his initial injured rookie season, plus three active seasons. He was traded away for two third rounders and a seventh round pick. The 15th pick in the third round is worth 195 points, and the 15th pick in the seventh round is worth 8.6 points. That's a total of 398.4 points. The 23rd pick in the draft is worth 760 points; which means McGahee returned about 52% of his initial value when traded away. I'd put that in the "moderate disappointment" category. The Lynch pick was three times as disappointing in terms of squandered draft day value. (As an aside, Baltimore's third round picks may have been less good than 15th overall; so the 52% value retained may be a best case scenario for McGahee.)

 

Antowain Winfield was by far the best football player on the earlier list, and amazingly is still a starter in the league today. The Bills could put him on an island against the other team's best WR, and know that over the course of the game that WR would not get out of hand. He was also a much better tackler than any CB has the right to be. If he had a weakness, it was his inability to catch potential INTs. A lot of fans base their Pro Bowl voting on whichever DB has the most INTs. Winfield clearly played at a Pro Bowl level while with the Bills, but didn't always receive the recognition he clearly deserved. The Bills got a very good return for the 23rd overall pick in the draft. (Or would have, had they not let Winfield go first-contract-and-out.)

I stand corrected as far as McGahee and the Pro Bowl, but he still accomplished more as a Bill then Eric Wood has so far, and I can't stand McGahee and actually like Bad Santa. Lynch without questioned accomplished more than Wood, with a Pro Bowl and multiple 1,000 yard seasons here. If the Bills would have tried to resign Winfield he might has spent his whole career, but this organization won't pay to keep players who are elite at their positions.

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