Yet another thread on draft thoughts, scenarios

[JohnC]

I've moved around a bit in my preferences too, mostly because I didn't anticipate Mallett's stock plummeting like it has and because I thought we'd finish the season better and pick more like #8-10. Picking at #3 has me in a quandary - there's no one that 'jumps off the board' to make me want them more than I want Von Miller, with the possible exception of Gabbert, whom I expect will go to the Panthers.

 

Hoping either Carimi and/or Watt somehow fall out of round one - that would make the #34 pick a lot easier, IMO. (The only question would be which Badger to pick!)

 

It'll all be over in 7 weeks - then the real whining can begin!

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

PosLUSZny!!!!!

 

I'm starting to be intrigued with Gabbert as the first pick. He seems to be a much more finished product than Newton. You make an interesting observation on the plummeting of Mallett's ranking. Is he being unfairly labeled or is he really damaged goods? How about taking him in the second round????

[Kingfish]

 

 

Hoping either Carimi and/or Watt somehow fall out of round one - that would make the #34 pick a lot easier, IMO. (The only question would be which Badger to pick!)

 

It'll all be over in 7 weeks - then the real whining can begin!

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

PosLUSZny!!!!!

 

Is there any doubt that JJ Watt ends up on the Patriots? It just seems like it's destined to happened.

[BuffaloFan68]

My first pick at #3 would be Bowers (Dareus if Bowers is gone) & then take Kaepernick at 34.

[Wagon Circler]

I think you're right, but I think they will wait until round 3 to take a QB. Although I really want Marcell Dareus at #3....I think they'll pick Peterson in round 1 and the best ILB available in round 2 (unless Kyle Rudolph is still on the board).

I think Rudolph could be a real possibility in round two.

[DDD]

Today I like Dareus. Yesterday I liked Fairley. The day before I liked Miller.

Is Newton a fig leaf or does he have gravitas? Does Bowers fit as a 3-4 DE? Is Quinn the best of them all?

 

It was much easier with Jauron--I'm sure we'd pick Peterson. My head hurts.

 

Agreed. Don't worry though. It will all unfold at the end of April. After all, all this posturing does make for good entertainment until then.

Edited March 4, 2011 by Mr. Wonderful

[JohnC]

SOOO true. This is something that would be very hard for non-Bills Fans to comprehend.

That said, I would be a little surprised if they don't take a QB at #3. The fact that they are the Bills opens us up to picks such as Peterson or Green, but this time I doubt it.

 

As you implied not being able to figure out the drafting philosophy of this organization is a tribute to its quirkiness, not its thoughtfulness and coherency.

 

As I noted in another posting I'm taking a liking to Gabbert. He seems to be a more finished product than Newton. How about taking the plummetting Mallett in the second round and using the first round to address the defense?

[Pete]

All jokes aside...I think they've fallen in love with CB Peterson & go after QB Kapernick in the second round!

 

But, who really knows...Dallas could be a trade partner & we could get Newton at 9...who knows--only Skooby does!

Vomit. A CB with no technique and a gimmick QB. That would do wonders for our pathetic run defense. There is nothing more humiliating then not being able to stop the run. Your draft would have us in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes

[Stl Bills]

Vomit. A CB with no technique and a gimmick QB. That would do wonders for our pathetic run defense. There is nothing more humiliating then not being able to stop the run. Your draft would have us in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes

I don't know how you can say Peterson has no technique, he's a great prospect. That being said, I'll be pissed off if we take him and don't go D-line. This is the best D-line class in a long time. If we pass on Fairley or Dareus, I will be irate. I'm not sold on Kapernick either.

[The Senator]

I'm starting to be intrigued with Gabbert as the first pick. He seems to be a much more finished product than Newton. You make an interesting observation on the plummeting of Mallett's ranking. Is he being unfairly labeled or is he really damaged goods? How about taking him in the second round????

There's a lot to be intrigued about with Gabbert - I was intrigued to learn that Harbaugh tried to recruit him to Stanford because he liked him even better than Luck.

 

He also seems like a level-headed, well-grounded guy and seems - at this young age - to already handle to media very well...

 

 

 

But no sense in getting too excited unless he's still there at #3. Gabbert's more a guy, I think, that looks to be a first-year starter, whereas here in Buffalo we know Fitz is going to start for the next year or two while we groom a young QB. That's why I like your thinking on Mallett in round 2 - I think Nix has been way too quiet about Mallett in the hopes that we can take Von Miller at #3 and come back for Mallett on day 2...

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

19 and 0 baby!!!!!

 

Is there any doubt that JJ Watt ends up on the Patriots? It just seems like it's destined to happened.

Yeah, that sounds about right - they'll probably get Carimi too...

 

GOD, I HATE THOSE NE* BASTARDS!!!!

[FightClub]

Today I like Dareus. Yesterday I liked Fairley. The day before I liked Miller.

Is Newton a fig leaf or does he have gravitas? Does Bowers fit as a 3-4 DE? Is Quinn the best of them all?

 

It was much easier with Jauron--I'm sure we'd pick Peterson. My head hurts.

 

In this situation, I think you have to look at the draft holistically. It seems most on the board these days want one of the DLs with that top pick, but the way I see it, there are so many good ones at this position in this draft that my strategy would be to hope to catch a good one at the top of round 2. Therefore I'm willing to let potential great ones pass in round 1 in order to take another position this team sorely needs (in my opinion, even worse than DL): linebacker.

 

So, until my opinion changes again, I'm hoping for Von Miller at #3 mostly because I think the gap between he and any other LB in this draft is so wide. I really think he's a Clay Matthews type and will be all over the field for us - 3-4 / 4-3, whatever...not just a pass rushing OLB.

 

Then, in round 2, I'll be sitting there with my list of DLs watching (probably with mild panic) as each one gets picked off but hoping that one makes it us. The DL board would look something like this:

 

1. Dareus

2. Fairley

3. Bowers

4. Quinn

5. Cam Jordan

6. J.J Watt

7. Phil Taylor

8. Aldon Smith

9. Paea

10. M. Wilkerson

11. M. Austin

12. A. Clayborn

13. C. Heyward

14. Liuget

15. Ryan Kerrigan

16. Justin Houston (ok, he's a pass rushing OLB, not a DE)

 

That's a lot of DLs to all get picked in round 1. I figure at least one of has to fall into top of round 2, which is why I'm willing to wait. Figure only 1 - 6 are absolutely guaranteed first rounders. Of the other 10, probably 8 will also be picked in round 1, but at least 1 or 2 should be there for us.

 

And you know what, if that many DLs really get picked ahead of us in round 2, it has to me that a good player at another position has fallen that maybe we can't pass up

 

 

 

6.

[Bill from NYC]

How about taking the plummetting Mallett in the second round and using the first round to address the defense?

 

I would love that. And I can easily be wrong, but I am thinking that Mallett will be gone in round 1.

 

Mallett has a ton of bust potential. There are character questions, and he isn't awfully nimble. This could hinder him in the this new era of football, let alone having to run, screaming for his life behind the Bills OL.

That said, I was in Arkansas when he played Georgia and saw the game on a huge TV. His arm is every bit as strong as that of Favre and Bledsoe. A large number of posters do not take the AFC East weather into consideration as much as I do and I resepect this. But, Mallett could throw into a windstorm, etc. You will rarely see someone throw a ball like him. His checkdowns (remember Trent lol?) are 25 yard flicks from his wrist that seem impossible, and he throws 50 yard fastballs flat footed. So imo he also has the highest ceiling, other than perhaps Newton.

 

Now, I should know better. I have seen enough football to know that a qb doesn't NEED a freak arm to win. I was around for Montana, and even Kenny Stabler. Still, I have a feeling that his throws will be on Sportscenter week after week.

 

We shall see.

[K-9]

I would love that. And I can easily be wrong, but I am thinking that Mallett will be gone in round 1.

 

Mallett has a ton of bust potential. There are character questions, and he isn't awfully nimble. This could hinder him in the this new era of football, let alone having to run, screaming for his life behind the Bills OL.

That said, I was in Arkansas when he played Georgia and saw the game on a huge TV. His arm is every bit as strong as that of Favre and Bledsoe. A large number of posters do not take the AFC East weather into consideration as much as I do and I resepect this. But, Mallett could throw into a windstorm, etc. You will rarely see someone throw a ball like him. His checkdowns (remember Trent lol?) are 25 yard flicks from his wrist that seem impossible, and he throws 50 yard fastballs flat footed. So imo he also has the highest ceiling, other than perhaps Newton.

 

Now, I should know better. I have seen enough football to know that a qb doesn't NEED a freak arm to win. I was around for Montana, and even Kenny Stabler. Still, I have a feeling that his throws will be on Sportscenter week after week.

 

We shall see.

 

I agree Mallett has a high ceiling and he's an intriguing prospect. There's no denying his arm. I just don't see him as a Gailey type of QB. Gailey likes a mobile QB. Doesn't have to be a running QB but in all of Gailey's systems that I've seen his QBs tended to be mobile. I'd be surprised if they took Mallett. But I wouldn't mind.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[The Senator]

I would love that. And I can easily be wrong, but I am thinking that Mallett will be gone in round 1.

 

Mallett has a ton of bust potential. There are character questions, and he isn't awfully nimble. This could hinder him in the this new era of football, let alone having to run, screaming for his life behind the Bills OL.

That said, I was in Arkansas when he played Georgia and saw the game on a huge TV. His arm is every bit as strong as that of Favre and Bledsoe. A large number of posters do not take the AFC East weather into consideration as much as I do and I resepect this. But, Mallett could throw into a windstorm, etc. You will rarely see someone throw a ball like him. His checkdowns (remember Trent lol?) are 25 yard flicks from his wrist that seem impossible, and he throws 50 yard fastballs flat footed. So imo he also has the highest ceiling, other than perhaps Newton.

 

Now, I should know better. I have seen enough football to know that a qb doesn't NEED a freak arm to win. I was around for Montana, and even Kenny Stabler. Still, I have a feeling that his throws will be on Sportscenter week after week.

 

We shall see.

 

Spot-on, Bill. Mallett could throw from Orchard Park to the Peace Bridge, in a blizzard!

 

I would not take him at #3-overall - but if Gabbert's gone and Mallet's still there when we pick at #34, I do hope we grab him.

[BobbyC81]

Peterson. Yeah. And then we wouldn't be able to stop the run next year either. I just hope they fix this defensive front 7. Get two for the front 7 in rounds one and two. Then in rounds three and four get a RT and a QB. And they will probably have to draft another QB next year, too. After that, with Fitz and two new QBs, one of them should be able to play.

 

You need the whole 11 guys on defense to support stopping the run. Don't discount how much a DB can help (Ex: Polamalu, Bob Sanders). Antoine Winfield contributed a lot to the run defense when he was with the Bills (one of the best tacklers I've ever seen). The Bills continually blew it in 2010 by not forcing the runner back inside.

[FightClub]

I agree Mallett has a high ceiling and he's an intriguing prospect. There's no denying his arm. I just don't see him as a Gailey type of QB. Gailey likes a mobile QB. Doesn't have to be a running QB but in all of Gailey's systems that I've seen his QBs tended to be mobile. I'd be surprised if they took Mallett. But I wouldn't mind.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

This board had me on the "draft a QB" bandwagon for about a week, right before the combine, right up until I saw those guys throw and came to my senses.

 

I can't wait until this board explodes when not only does no QB get drafted but afterward they sign a mobile veteran like Tavaris Jackson to be the backup (hey, don't be so shocked - Gailey had a front row seat for the reaming that kid gave us in early Dec - with Favre we would have won that game and then the backup comes in and we lose 38 - 14. I would not at all be surprised if Gailey saw someone "free" - we always talk about signing someone on the cheap - who he can coach up).

[Rob's House]

This board had me on the "draft a QB" bandwagon for about a week, right before the combine, right up until I saw those guys throw and came to my senses.

 

I can't wait until this board explodes when not only does no QB get drafted but afterward they sign a mobile veteran like Tavaris Jackson to be the backup (hey, don't be so shocked - Gailey had a front row seat for the reaming that kid gave us in early Dec - with Favre we would have won that game and then the backup comes in and we lose 38 - 14. I would not at all be surprised if Gailey saw someone "free" - we always talk about signing someone on the cheap - who he can coach up).

Are you really pointing out a 3 int game as the primary evidence as to why we should go after a QB?

[JohnC]

This board had me on the "draft a QB" bandwagon for about a week, right before the combine, right up until I saw those guys throw and came to my senses.

 

The combine is the least effective tool used to judge a qb. Other than getting a better opportunity to get a feel for a qb as a person it tells you little about the prospects of any qb. Even there the players are so scripted and on message that there isn't much to draw from.

 

The best way to assess the qbs is to watch the tapes of their games. How they react to pressure, their level of accuracy and their field vision is more useful than any drill done in shorts. The teams that have a history of re-arranging their draft boards due to the combine usually draft poorly.

[JohnC]

I would love that. And I can easily be wrong, but I am thinking that Mallett will be gone in round 1.

 

Bill, go against your instincts. He will be there in the second round.

 

Mallett has a ton of bust potential. There are character questions, and he isn't awfully nimble. This could hinder him in the this new era of football, let alone having to run, screaming for his life behind the Bills OL.

 

You have just made a very succinct yet potent analysis as to why he won't be taken by the Bills. As it currently stands I am getting on the Gabbert bandwagon. (Subject to change, of courese). He is mobile, good vision, has a strong arm and is accurate. He also has the commanding presence that can't be faked. He reminds me a little bit of Kelly. Do you want me to open up a space for you on the rickety wagon?

[....lybob]

In this situation, I think you have to look at the draft holistically. It seems most on the board these days want one of the DLs with that top pick, but the way I see it, there are so many good ones at this position in this draft that my strategy would be to hope to catch a good one at the top of round 2. Therefore I'm willing to let potential great ones pass in round 1 in order to take another position this team sorely needs (in my opinion, even worse than DL): linebacker.

 

So, until my opinion changes again, I'm hoping for Von Miller at #3 mostly because I think the gap between he and any other LB in this draft is so wide. I really think he's a Clay Matthews type and will be all over the field for us - 3-4 / 4-3, whatever...not just a pass rushing OLB.

 

Then, in round 2, I'll be sitting there with my list of DLs watching (probably with mild panic) as each one gets picked off but hoping that one makes it us. The DL board would look something like this:

 

1. Dareus

2. Fairley

3. Bowers

4. Quinn

5. Cam Jordan

6. J.J Watt

7. Phil Taylor

8. Aldon Smith

9. Paea

10. M. Wilkerson

11. M. Austin

12. A. Clayborn

13. C. Heyward

14. Liuget

15. Ryan Kerrigan

16. Justin Houston (ok, he's a pass rushing OLB, not a DE)

 

That's a lot of DLs to all get picked in round 1. I figure at least one of has to fall into top of round 2, which is why I'm willing to wait. Figure only 1 - 6 are absolutely guaranteed first rounders. Of the other 10, probably 8 will also be picked in round 1, but at least 1 or 2 should be there for us.

 

And you know what, if that many DLs really get picked ahead of us in round 2, it has to me that a good player at another position has fallen that maybe we can't pass up

 

 

 

6.

 

I like that list- I'd like Dareus and Wilkerson or maybe Fairley and Taylor but while I'm for the Bills getting big uglies the draft is not the only way to get them.

 

Cullen Jenkins, Marcus Spears are free agents- you could grab one or both then take Miller with your 1st, and either Wilson or Ayers with 2nd then you could grab Powe or Kendrick Ellis in the 3rd which would allow Kyle Williams to play some DE

[FightClub]

Are you really pointing out a 3 int game as the primary evidence as to why we should go after a QB?

 

You get the prize for being first in denial. I am not saying I want it to happen, just chuckling at all the folks who think Gailey and Nix will spend a high pick on a college QB rather than signing a guy like Jackson.