Phlegm Alley Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 2nd Rounders Drew Brees, Purdue Quincy Carter, Georgia Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington Kellen Clemens, Oregon Travaris Jackson, Alabama St. Kevin Kolb, Houston John Beck, BYU Drew Stanton, Michigan Brian Brohm, Louisville Chad Henne, Michigan Pat White, West Virginia Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame 3rd Rounders: Giovanni Carmazzi, Hofstra Chris Redman, Louisville Josh McCown, Sam Houston St. Dave Ragone, Louisville Chris Simms, Texas Matt Schaub, Virginia Charlie Frye, Akron Andrew Walter, Arizona St. David Greene, Georgia Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson Brodie Croyle, Alabama Trent Edwards, Stanford Kevin O’Connell, San Diego St. Colt McCoy, Texas Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State Since 2000, there have only been 2 clear cut starters that happen to be Pro Bowl players, and one potentially decent starter in Kolb. The jury is still out on McCoy and Clausen and whether or not they can become franchise guys. And if Brees were drafted in this years draft at his draft position in 2000, he would have been a 1st round pick because of expansion. The odds of finding your "franchise" QB in these 2 rounds is a paltry 8.3%. In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such: Chad Pennington Mike Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman Eli Manning Philip Rivers Ben Roethlisberger J.P. Losman Alex Smith Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell Vince Young Matt Leinart Jay Cutler JaMarcus Russell Brady Quinn Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Matt Stafford Mark Sanchez Josh Freeman Sam Bradford Tim Tebow Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow. Obviously, most starters and "franchise" QBs are found in the 1st round, but as a trend, it appears that selecting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round is a waste of a draft pick. Which leads me to everyone talking about Fitzpatrick being a QB that could get better given how much he improved last year, but the stats don't lie: 2008-09: 21 starts. 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 58.1% completion rate, 5.8 YPC. 2010: 13 starts. 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 57.8 completion rate, 6.8 YPC Other than a slight bump in TDs, due in large part to the Bills offense only producing six(6) f'cking RUSHING TDs, and a YPC stat that ebbs and flows (for comparisons sake Colt McCoy had a 7.1 YPC last year...do you think he will maintain that over his career?), why are we heralding Fitz, who still has a career 12-23 record, as a guy that can lead this franchise for years to come? Don't get me wrong...I think Fitz is a good place holder while we groom the potential "franchise" guy that the Bills select with the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, but if people think he is going to be anything beyond that, they need to get their heads checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 If Fitzpatrick can improve his accuracy by say 5% that will improve his ypc, and no one will complain. He throws plenty of balls that can go for yards, unfortunately he's simply not always accurate. I give him the starting job next year by default, but we still should keep an eye out for a franchise guy going forward. I don't understand the black and white nature of everyone. Drafting a QB at some point in the next couple years doesn't mean Fitzpatrick sucks. And not reaching to draft someone questionable does not mean Fitzpatrick is god like. He's a decent QB, and its possible for him to further improve, even if its improbable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phlegm Alley Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 If Fitzpatrick can improve his accuracy by say 5% that will improve his ypc, and no one will complain. He throws plenty of balls that can go for yards, unfortunately he's simply not always accurate. I give him the starting job next year by default, but we still should keep an eye out for a franchise guy going forward. I don't understand the black and white nature of everyone. Drafting a QB at some point in the next couple years doesn't mean Fitzpatrick sucks. And not reaching to draft someone questionable does not mean Fitzpatrick is god like. He's a decent QB, and its possible for him to further improve, even if its improbable. Fitzpatrick will never improve his completion percentage. He is a career 57.8% passer, with his highest mark of 59.4% in 2008. I don't think that Fitz is terrible, but I don't think he is a "franchise" guy that is going to somehow "figure it out" and complete 65% of his passes and have 7.5 YPC and lead the Bills to a Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 2008-09: 21 starts. 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 58.1% completion rate, 5.8 YPC. 2010: 13 starts. 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 57.8 completion rate, 6.8 YPC Other than a slight bump in TDs, due in large part to the Bills offense only producing six(6) f'cking RUSHING TDs, and a YPC stat that ebbs and flows (for comparisons sake Colt McCoy had a 7.1 YPC last year...do you think he will maintain that over his career?), why are we heralding Fitz, who still has a career 12-23 record, as a guy that can lead this franchise for years to come? Don't get me wrong...I think Fitz is a good place holder while we groom the potential "franchise" guy that the Bills select with the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, but if people think he is going to be anything beyond that, they need to get their heads checked. Dont forget that EIGHT of his TD's came in 2 games this year, leaving his total over the other 11 games very modest. And in one of those games, he was atrocious until BOTH starting safeties got knocked out of the game (Cincy)...his TD's production looks much better as a TOTAL than it does going game by game. Also, 3 more of those TD's came in garbage time in the final minutes of blow outs during his first 3 games (1 each in his first 3 starts). The "homers" will point to his TD total, the realists would point to how bad and lowly rated he was in almost all key QB stats, the turnovers, his record, his bad games (which greatly out weigh his good games), and how while he is light years better than Trent that doesnt make him a good QB. He is a stop gap at best. I love his guts, heart, and leadership...unfortunately the rest of his game just isnt strong enough or consistent enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoner7 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Im on the hold out for Luck train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phlegm Alley Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Im on the hold out for Luck train. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush Thoner. You can hold out until next year, but what are the odds that we finish with a worse record than we did this year? They were pretty bad last year in a lot of different areas, but you have to think they will win more games next year, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I think if you give Fitzpatrick a running game and a solid defense he'd be every bit the QB that Eli Manning is. Actually I think he's already as good as him. The Bills have two ways to go... 1. They either go the franchise route with Newton or Gabbert, 2. Or they follow the NY Giants Superbowl winning route with a solid defense, running game and solid QB. Dude had 23 TDs in 13 games without a running game to protect him. He made a huge leap in performance and can still get even better. I think he's just a notch below a franchise QB and that's good enough to win the whole darn thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phlegm Alley Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 I think if you give Fitzpatrick a running game and a solid defense he'd be every bit the QB that Eli Manning is. Actually I think he's already as good as him. The Bills have two ways to go... 1. They either go the franchise route with Newton or Gabbert, 2. Or they follow the NY Giants Superbowl winning route with a solid defense, running game and solid QB. Dude had 23 TDs in 13 games without a running game to protect him. He made a huge leap in performance and can still get even better. I think he's just a notch below a franchise QB and that's good enough to win the whole darn thing. Are you talking about the Giants team that beat the Paytoilets a couple of years ago or the Giants team that beat the Bills 20 years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Dont forget that EIGHT of his TD's came in 2 games this year, leaving his total over the other 11 games very modest. And in one of those games, he was atrocious until BOTH starting safeties got knocked out of the game (Cincy)...his TD's production looks much better as a TOTAL than it does going game by game. Also, 3 more of those TD's came in garbage time in the final minutes of blow outs during his first 3 games (1 each in his first 3 starts). The "homers" will point to his TD total, the realists would point to how bad and lowly rated he was in almost all key QB stats, the turnovers, his record, his bad games (which greatly out weigh his good games), and how while he is light years better than Trent that doesnt make him a good QB. He is a stop gap at best. I love his guts, heart, and leadership...unfortunately the rest of his game just isnt strong enough or consistent enough. I think his production this year was commendable, but not noteworthy in the sense of becoming a franchise guy. I'm not going to act like he had a maybin-Esque year putting up all his stats against eastern coastal Carolina state. He put up some good games against teams with defenses better then our offense. That said, I do agree that this was more of a simple blip in his career, not a turning point. Even if you throw completion percentage out the window he still looked erratic to me. Even with a great line, I think you see him maybe hover around 60% and his receivers not getting tremendous yards after the catch. When you watch any qb that is really turning the corner they tend to start really hitting guys in stride. Obviously they push the ball downfield, make good reads etc... But I think you have seen it in a lot of the successful teams lately. Rodgers, brees, even a Matt Ryan - if you listen to Matt before last season one of his biggest goals was making sure the underneath stuff was always on the money because it's hard to defend and creates explosive plays. The patriots and saints both push the ball down field but you'd be hard pressed to find fans that don't see those screens, slants etc as the plays that win/lose games. The chains keep moving, less turnovers, and with one block/broken tackle - 6 points. I don't see fitz as a guy that is suddenly going to learn those throws at 29 years old. I know after the Edwards era screens and checkdowns can be dirty words around here. Obviously you have to push the ball downfield. I think fitz is ok with keeping the defense honest in that way. I just wish his passes were a little more consistent- and I don't think it's just the line. Even unrushed he unloads he unloads a lot outside the receivers frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 2nd Rounders Drew Brees, Purdue Quincy Carter, Georgia Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington Kellen Clemens, Oregon Travaris Jackson, Alabama St. Kevin Kolb, Houston John Beck, BYU Drew Stanton, Michigan Brian Brohm, Louisville Chad Henne, Michigan Pat White, West Virginia Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame 3rd Rounders: Giovanni Carmazzi, Hofstra Chris Redman, Louisville Josh McCown, Sam Houston St. Dave Ragone, Louisville Chris Simms, Texas Matt Schaub, Virginia Charlie Frye, Akron Andrew Walter, Arizona St. David Greene, Georgia Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson Brodie Croyle, Alabama Trent Edwards, Stanford Kevin O’Connell, San Diego St. Colt McCoy, Texas Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State Since 2000, there have only been 2 clear cut starters that happen to be Pro Bowl players, and one potentially decent starter in Kolb. The jury is still out on McCoy and Clausen and whether or not they can become franchise guys. And if Brees were drafted in this years draft at his draft position in 2000, he would have been a 1st round pick because of expansion. The odds of finding your "franchise" QB in these 2 rounds is a paltry 8.3%. In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such: Chad Pennington Mike Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman Eli Manning Philip Rivers Ben Roethlisberger J.P. Losman Alex Smith Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell Vince Young Matt Leinart Jay Cutler JaMarcus Russell Brady Quinn Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Matt Stafford Mark Sanchez Josh Freeman Sam Bradford Tim Tebow Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow. Obviously, most starters and "franchise" QBs are found in the 1st round, but as a trend, it appears that selecting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round is a waste of a draft pick. Which leads me to everyone talking about Fitzpatrick being a QB that could get better given how much he improved last year, but the stats don't lie: 2008-09: 21 starts. 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 58.1% completion rate, 5.8 YPC. 2010: 13 starts. 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 57.8 completion rate, 6.8 YPC Other than a slight bump in TDs, due in large part to the Bills offense only producing six(6) f'cking RUSHING TDs, and a YPC stat that ebbs and flows (for comparisons sake Colt McCoy had a 7.1 YPC last year...do you think he will maintain that over his career?), why are we heralding Fitz, who still has a career 12-23 record, as a guy that can lead this franchise for years to come? Don't get me wrong...I think Fitz is a good place holder while we groom the potential "franchise" guy that the Bills select with the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, but if people think he is going to be anything beyond that, they need to get their heads checked. Great post. My thoughts exactly. The people that are convinced that we must go defense first, then draft a guy to develop later on. That "developmental" guy will be a wasted draft pick. One that is better off used on defense. Turns out, we draft pretty well rounds 4-6. Glad we didn't draft a developmental guy last year and miss out on moats. Or a few years ago when we got Kyle Williams. If a QB isn't drafted in round one, it's VERY unlikely he will turn out to be a tranches guy. Does he have a chance, a la Brady, Montana, brews? Sure, but it's VERY unlikely. Drafting a qb after round 1 is a waste. I like ponder, kaepernick, dalton and the kid from Delaware. But I srsly doubt they will ever develop info a star. We have Fitz alrdy, no reason to draft another better than average qb. We need a star. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artmalibu Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I am not sold that there is a QB in the draft that is a franchise guy. In the last 10 years only 14 1st round QBs made the bolded list, thats only 50% and a couple of them have not proven to be any better than Fitz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Are you talking about the Giants team that beat the Paytoilets a couple of years ago or the Giants team that beat the Bills 20 years ago? The 2007 Giants team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Great post. My thoughts exactly. The people that are convinced that we must go defense first, then draft a guy to develop later on. That "developmental" guy will be a wasted draft pick. One that is better off used on defense. Turns out, we draft pretty well rounds 4-6. Glad we didn't draft a developmental guy last year and miss out on moats. Or a few years ago when we got Kyle Williams. If a QB isn't drafted in round one, it's VERY unlikely he will turn out to be a tranches guy. Does he have a chance, a la Brady, Montana, brews? Sure, but it's VERY unlikely. Drafting a qb after round 1 is a waste. I like ponder, kaepernick, dalton and the kid from Delaware. But I srsly doubt they will ever develop info a star. We have Fitz alrdy, no reason to draft another better than average qb. We need a star. It's going to sound awful but, I don't think we are looking for a good backup and I think that's really what you are looking at outside the top 30-40 picks. You need one - especially if we go to 18 games. But I think we have that caretaker, quality teammate on this team already. I see fitz as our great safety net. One of the best you could hope for. If we get a qb at this point we need to be shooting high. If we don't take him by 34 (like brees- essentially a first rounder)- I don't think we should this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 2nd Rounders Drew Brees, Purdue Quincy Carter, Georgia Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington Kellen Clemens, Oregon Travaris Jackson, Alabama St. Kevin Kolb, Houston John Beck, BYU Drew Stanton, Michigan Brian Brohm, Louisville Chad Henne, Michigan Pat White, West Virginia Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame 3rd Rounders: Giovanni Carmazzi, Hofstra Chris Redman, Louisville Josh McCown, Sam Houston St. Dave Ragone, Louisville Chris Simms, Texas Matt Schaub, Virginia Charlie Frye, Akron Andrew Walter, Arizona St. David Greene, Georgia Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson Brodie Croyle, Alabama Trent Edwards, Stanford Kevin O’Connell, San Diego St. Colt McCoy, Texas Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State Since 2000, there have only been 2 clear cut starters that happen to be Pro Bowl players, and one potentially decent starter in Kolb. The jury is still out on McCoy and Clausen and whether or not they can become franchise guys. And if Brees were drafted in this years draft at his draft position in 2000, he would have been a 1st round pick because of expansion. The odds of finding your "franchise" QB in these 2 rounds is a paltry 8.3%. In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such: Chad Pennington Mike Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman Eli Manning Philip Rivers Ben Roethlisberger J.P. Losman Alex Smith Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell Vince Young Matt Leinart Jay Cutler JaMarcus Russell Brady Quinn Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Matt Stafford Mark Sanchez Josh Freeman Sam Bradford Tim Tebow Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow. Obviously, most starters and "franchise" QBs are found in the 1st round, but as a trend, it appears that selecting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round is a waste of a draft pick. Which leads me to everyone talking about Fitzpatrick being a QB that could get better given how much he improved last year, but the stats don't lie: 2008-09: 21 starts. 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 58.1% completion rate, 5.8 YPC. 2010: 13 starts. 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 57.8 completion rate, 6.8 YPC Other than a slight bump in TDs, due in large part to the Bills offense only producing six(6) f'cking RUSHING TDs, and a YPC stat that ebbs and flows (for comparisons sake Colt McCoy had a 7.1 YPC last year...do you think he will maintain that over his career?), why are we heralding Fitz, who still has a career 12-23 record, as a guy that can lead this franchise for years to come? Don't get me wrong...I think Fitz is a good place holder while we groom the potential "franchise" guy that the Bills select with the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, but if people think he is going to be anything beyond that, they need to get their heads checked. Fitz has 36 games started in his career...basically two seasons worth of games. What's your basis to think that he can't continue to improve? Fitz is currently entering the prime of his career too and just turned 28. Fitzpatrick will never improve his completion percentage. He is a career 57.8% passer, with his highest mark of 59.4% in 2008. I don't think that Fitz is terrible, but I don't think he is a "franchise" guy that is going to somehow "figure it out" and complete 65% of his passes and have 7.5 YPC and lead the Bills to a Super Bowl. The guy has started in two seasons worth of games..geeze man, not exactly that large of a sample to draw any conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 (edited) I know it's not always a popular view but if you won't spend a top ten pick on a guy, and your not going to aggressively chase him should he be there at 20-30 then you don't think he's your qb of the future. Sometimes that trade up doesn't work out but if he lasts past the first 2-3 picks of round 2.... You are looking to groom frank Reich, not Jim Kelly. I know it's not 100% true but generally- yes it is. Qb in the first few rounds is a yes/no proposition, it's not a bpa or value pick. This list really seems to support what I've been saying since the clausen debate of last year. Edited February 26, 2011 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folz Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Let's throw out all of the stats for a moment...as we all know a lot of factors go into how an individual's stats end up... so, for just a minute lets not think of stats. 1. Fitzpatrick will be our starter next year. This is not in doubt as Chan loves him and even if the Bills take a QB at 3, I don't think Chan will want to start any of them year one since most of them didn't play in a Pro-style offense and will need to learn a lot. So, since Fitz will be our general next year, at least, can't we stop tearing the poor guy down and start rooting for him? 2. If the FO feels that there is a possible franchise QB on the board at their pick, they will not pass him up...nothing we say pro- or anti-Fitz will make any difference to the FO...if a guy they like is there, they will take him and start grooming him behind Fitz (to step in if Fitz doesn't keep improving or if the player picked is just better; or for the future if Fitz keeps playing well). 3. Regardless of stats, anyone who watched last season should be able to see that Fitz took a huge step forward in his own progression as a QB from the year before. Going into last season I was not a Fitz supporter. In fact, I thought of him as the last/worst option for us at QB. I was so wrong. Fitz totally won me over last year with his heart, his smarts, and his overall play. The kid is a gamer. He may or may not be the long term answer; he may have plateaued and we've seen his best or he might keep improving. We won't know until next year, but tearing him down won't get us Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or any other QB anyone is wishing for. That's up to the FO and a bit of fate. Fitzpatrick is the QB of the Buffalo Bills right now, so let's root for the guy and let the future play out as it will. Go FItz! Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 great post, these have been my thoughts when i see people thinking we wait and take ponder or locker in the 2nd or 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Great original post, Hurricane. Thanks for posting. The wisdom in any situation is knowing when you are looking at the exception to the rule. While this is compelling data, it doesn't mean that any quarterback that slips to the 2nd or 3rd round can be dismissed out of hand. That would simply be lazy thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumbalaya Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Fitzpatrick will never improve his completion percentage. He is a career 57.8% passer, with his highest mark of 59.4% in 2008. I don't think that Fitz is terrible, but I don't think he is a "franchise" guy that is going to somehow "figure it out" and complete 65% of his passes and have 7.5 YPC and lead the Bills to a Super Bowl. You need 22 guys to get to the super bowl. A mediocre QB like Fitz can get there provided he has a quality cast around him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Fitzpatrick will never improve his completion percentage. He is a career 57.8% passer, with his highest mark of 59.4% in 2008. I don't think that Fitz is terrible, but I don't think he is a "franchise" guy that is going to somehow "figure it out" and complete 65% of his passes and have 7.5 YPC and lead the Bills to a Super Bowl. IMO it's improbable... But not impossible. I don't know how you can tell the future, wanna let us in on the secret? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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