The race for the #1 pick

[Buffalonian-at-Heart]

LOL. It's not that simple. How many years have the Lions been drafting 1-5 year in, year out? How has that worked out for them?

 

I'd say pretty good. They have Pettigrew, Johnson, Suh, Stafford, Best, and Sims. Those are some pretty awesome cornerstone players.

[bobobonators]

I'd say pretty good. They have Pettigrew, Johnson, Suh, Stafford, Best, and Sims. Those are some pretty awesome cornerstone players.

 

So ten years of absolute futility, having multiple 1/2 picks in the last decade and they're currently 2-7. Sheesh, even a blind squirrel can find a nut if you keep picking in the top 5.

[JohninMinn.]

:worthy:

 

LOL. It's not that simple. How many years have the Lions been drafting 1-5 year in, year out? How has that worked out for them?

[Koufax]

I only care about #1 if Luck declares. If he doesn't I am fine drafting 2-4

 

+1. I think he will come out, and I would love to have him, but I also think we will be fine at 2 or 3, and while I certainly hope for some Carolina wins at some point, I think they are the team most likely to finish 1-15. I was happy to see the Cowboys and Niners win today, although I wasn't too worried about them. But I am also very worried about the Lions and Bengals, and can see us picking #4. Right now I'm just happy for the win, and think the benefits of getting the 0-16 monkey off of this team's back outweigh the draft position side.

[machinegun12]

I'd say pretty good. They have Pettigrew, Johnson, Suh, Stafford, Best, and Sims. Those are some pretty awesome cornerstone players.

Only they HAD Sims...check out the Philadelphia Eagles' roster.

 

But a side Detroit note...yes, they are 2-7, but they're probably one of the only 2-7 teams in the history of the NFL to have outscored their opponents (by a score of 215-202).

Edited November 15, 2010 by machinegun12

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

The Bills are playing better and better every week. Carolina is playing worse and worse every week.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if by season's end this team has 4-5 wins and is picking somewhere around #8-10.

[Munch]

The absolute best thing, unquestionably, would be for this team to finish 8-8 or 7-9. Luck likely isnt gonna come out. The best thing would be to REVERSE THE CULTURE OF LOSING. Think about that for a minute, as a BILLS FAN. It would mean we would end the season on a positive note and we will WIN GAMES. We are Bills fans here right?

 

Winning is good people, not losing. I will never root for this team to lose.

[reddogblitz]

I definitely think we'll win 2-4 more games this year. Hopefully more, but we'll see.

[truth on hold]

The Bills have had 4 #1 picks. Tom Cousineau and Walt Patulski were the others. I'd say we are .500 picking winners.

 

PTR

Actually I'd say we're 3 of 4 considering that when Cousineau wanted to come back to the NFL we traded him to Browns for their #1 pick (14th overall) which we used to draft Jim Kelly.

 

And for some more interesting trivia on Cousineau:

 

"Linebacker Tom Cousineau, of the San Francisco 49ers, holds a press conference to deny rumors that he is gay. Cousineau claims that it all started in 1985, when he suffered a severe hemorrhoid flare-up following a game in San Diego, and a rumor circulated that the doctor removed a foreign body from his rectum."

 

http://www.windycitymediagroup.com/archives/outlines/archives/aug97/history.html

 

There are two team tied for worst in the league, the Carolina Panthers (1-8) & the Buffalo Bills (1-8). As has been discussed if two teams have identical records at seasons end the team with the easier strength of schedule gets the better pick (the thinking being they have the same record vs. worse opponents, thus making them the worse team).

 

The Panthers schedule is as follows:

 

1 Sun, Sep 12 @New York L31-18 (6-3)

2 Sun, Sep 19 vsTampa Bay L20-7 (6-3)

3 Sun, Sep 26 vsCincinnati L20-7 (2-7)

4 Sun, Oct 3 @New Orleans L16-14 (6-3)

5 Sun, Oct 10 vsChicago L23-6 (6-3)

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 24 vsSan Francisco (3-6)

8 Sun, Oct 31 @St. Louis L20-10 (4-5)

9 Sun, Nov 7 vsNew Orleans L34-3 (6-3)

10 Sun, Nov 14 @Tampa Bay L31-16 (6-3)

11 Sun, Nov 21 vsBaltimore 1:00 PM (6-3)

12 Sun, Nov 28 @Cleveland 1:00 PM (3-6)

13 Sun, Dec 5 @Seattle 4:15 PM (5-4)

14 Sun, Dec 12 vsAtlanta 1:00 (7-2)

15 Sun, Dec 19 vsArizona 1:00 PM (3-6)

16 Thu, Dec 23 @Pittsburgh 8:20 (6-2)

17 Sun, Jan 2 @Atlanta (7-2)

 

Combined Record of Opponents: (82-61)57.34%

 

The Bills schedule is as follows:

 

1 Sun, Sep 12 vsMiami L15-10 (5-4)

2 Sun, Sep 19 @Green Bay L34-7 (6-3)

3 Sun, Sep 26 @New England L38-30 (6-2)

4 Sun, Oct 3 vsNew York L38-14 (7-2)

5 Sun, Oct 10 vsJacksonville L36-26 (5-4)

6 BYE WEEK

7 Sun, Oct 24 @Baltimore L37-34 OT (6-3)

8 Sun, Oct 31 @Kansas City L13-10 OT (5-4)

9 Sun, Nov 7 vsChicago L22-19 (6-3)

10 Sun, Nov 14 vsDetroit W14-12 (2-7)

11 Sun, Nov 21 @Cincinnati 1:00 PM (2-7)

12 Sun, Nov 28 vsPittsburgh 1:00 PM (6-2)

13 Sun, Dec 5 @Minnesota 1:00 PM (3-6)

14 Sun, Dec 12 vsCleveland 1:00 PM (3-6)

15 Sun, Dec 19 @Miami 1:00 PM (5-4)

16 Sun, Dec 26 vsNew England 1:00 PM (6-2)

17 Sun, Jan 2 @New York 1:00 PM (7-2)

 

Combined Record of Opponents: (80-61) 56.74%

 

If New England holds on and beats the Steelers, the Bills and Panthers will have identical SOS both at 82-62.

In the end I see the Bills finishing with the 2-3 pick in the draft because it'll be extremely difficult to finish worse than the Panthers. I see the Bills as a 3 win team and I don't think the Panthers get another 2 wins this season, time will tell.

Great work, but I don't follow your conclusion. Even with the Pats win over Steelers last night, Bills combined SOS is 81-62, which is one game worse (i.e. better from a draft perspective) than Panthers opponents. Overall this is cause for hope as I see Panthers schedule is much stronger than I had assumed.

[sweatpantsjoe]

I doubt if the Bills get the first overall pick it will be the next Tom Cousineau. I don't see the Montreal Allouettes outbidding them this time.

[Keukasmallies]

So, let's go 1 - 15 through the season for the right to "...put on a blindfold, reach into a bag and pick out a potential player's name; then sign him for an obscene amount of $ in order to see if he might become an NFL player?"

 

Sounds like a shaky business plan to me....

[Nanker]

Without a rookie salary cap, drafting in the top 10 is a curse.

[SouthernMan]

Haven't read the whole thread, so forgive me if this is being repeated.

 

This "get the first pick" crap is getting old. With that mentality, why not lose every game from now until eternity? First pick every year - yea! This sounds like Leo Roth's stupid column today. Getting the # 1 is not some new form or winning.

 

The idea is to win each contest. That's how you create a winning atmosphere - by actually winning.

Secondly, what's the big difference between getting the first overall or say one of the picks out of the next 5?

 

In reality, if they picked at # 5 they should be able to get an impact player and the salary will be exponentially lower than Mr. # 1.

 

And I'm about sick of hearing about Newton, Luck, Mallet, etc. The best teams build from the inside out. Give me a pass rush specialist DE who can put pressure on the opposing QB. By hurrying a QB, you're suddenly getting a whole lot more bang from for the buck from your high priced DBs. How about a pro-bowl caliber linebacker or two? Maybe a center or O-tackle that can give our QB time to make reads and throws. Y'ever notice that nearly every top tier NFL team has at least one all-pro caliber tight end?

 

Fitzpatrick may not be the next coming of Jim Kelly, but he's far from being the weakest link on this team.

 

By taking a QB as a the top pick, you've essentially conceded several more crappy to mediocre years while the kid is being developed. Meanwhile, there's still the glaring weaknesses in the defensive front 7 and the O-line.

 

Personally, I think it's more important that this team develop that winning attitude that they can carry into next season. If they don't screw up the first pick, they should still get an impact player. Even picking at # 5 (for example), they still have 2 picks out of the first 37. Hopefully, they can get some production out of this year's group as well.

 

It's football season for god's sake. I'm rooting for the here and now, not the annual April pageant.

[bananathumb]

Unfortunately, for the future, they will probably beat gutless Cinci, Favre-led Vikings, still hapless Browns, Qb-less Dolphins and Jets who rest their starters. That's a Jauron-like 6-10 and we end up with another maybin.

[Saint Doug]

Pointing out that getting the #1 pick won't work out for us because it didn't for the Lions is laughable. Excuse me, but has someone replaced Nix with Matt Millen without anyone knowing? That's like me saying that I won't like to eat Apples because I don't like Oranges, because afterall, they're both fruit.

[KOKBILLS]

So, let's go 1 - 15 through the season for the right to "...put on a blindfold, reach into a bag and pick out a potential player's name; then sign him for an obscene amount of $ in order to see if he might become an NFL player?"

 

Right because that's all the NFL Draft is...The equivalent of picking a name out of a hat despite the millions of dollars spent on Scouting and Player evaluation every year...The fact is Teams that Scout and Draft well have a definitive advantage in the NFL...Now I'll give you the fact that The Bills have not been one of those Teams lately...But Drafting well in the Top 5 can catapult a Team...Look at the Falcons before they Drafted Matt Ryan...Think Ryan's not worth every penny they paid him so far?

[Realist]

Haven't read the whole thread, so forgive me if this is being repeated.

 

This "get the first pick" crap is getting old. With that mentality, why not lose every game from now until eternity? First pick every year - yea! This sounds like Leo Roth's stupid column today. Getting the # 1 is not some new form or winning.

 

The idea is to win each contest. That's how you create a winning atmosphere - by actually winning.

Secondly, what's the big difference between getting the first overall or say one of the picks out of the next 5?

 

In reality, if they picked at # 5 they should be able to get an impact player and the salary will be exponentially lower than Mr. # 1.

 

And I'm about sick of hearing about Newton, Luck, Mallet, etc. The best teams build from the inside out. Give me a pass rush specialist DE who can put pressure on the opposing QB. By hurrying a QB, you're suddenly getting a whole lot more bang from for the buck from your high priced DBs. How about a pro-bowl caliber linebacker or two? Maybe a center or O-tackle that can give our QB time to make reads and throws. Y'ever notice that nearly every top tier NFL team has at least one all-pro caliber tight end?

 

Fitzpatrick may not be the next coming of Jim Kelly, but he's far from being the weakest link on this team.

 

By taking a QB as a the top pick, you've essentially conceded several more crappy to mediocre years while the kid is being developed. Meanwhile, there's still the glaring weaknesses in the defensive front 7 and the O-line.

 

Personally, I think it's more important that this team develop that winning attitude that they can carry into next season. If they don't screw up the first pick, they should still get an impact player. Even picking at # 5 (for example), they still have 2 picks out of the first 37. Hopefully, they can get some production out of this year's group as well.

 

It's football season for god's sake. I'm rooting for the here and now, not the annual April pageant.

 

 

 

+1

 

We need to get rid of the losing attitude around here. By winning the majority of our remaining games we will still get a decent draft pick (we're not going to be 8-8), and better yet, we go into next year knowing we can win.

 

My bet is we end up picking 4th next year. Hopefully we don't get another Mike Williams.

[tennesseeboy]

I supect we will win three or four games by the end of the year. We will almost certainly be getting a top five pick, and we can do ourselves a lot of good with a pick in that category. We will get the best top flight qb, ot,defensive lineman or linebacker.

[KOKBILLS]

 

And I'm about sick of hearing about Newton, Luck, Mallet, etc. The best teams build from the inside out. Give me a pass rush specialist DE who can put pressure on the opposing QB. By hurrying a QB, you're suddenly getting a whole lot more bang from for the buck from your high priced DBs. How about a pro-bowl caliber linebacker or two? Maybe a center or O-tackle that can give our QB time to make reads and throws. Y'ever notice that nearly every top tier NFL team has at least one all-pro caliber tight end?

 

 

Right...Okey doke...

 

Of the last 9 Super Bowl winners only the Tampa Bay Bucs were not built around a QB...Big Ben, Eli and Peyton were all Top 10 Picks...Where would New Orleans or The Patsies be without Brees or Brady? How many Teams would have been more than happy to give a Top 10 Pick for either Brady or Brees had they known what type of QB's and leaders they would turn out to be...Half of the NFL Network is touting Atlanta as the best Team in the NFC...The same Falcons built around QB Matt Ryan...The Ravens bounced back into Title contention after they Drafted Flacco even though their Defense is no where near as good as it used to be...The Packers saved the future of their Franchise by Drafting Aaron Rodgers when everyone else passed on him...

 

The premise that good NFL Teams are not built around QB's is a joke...Sure you still have to support those good QB's with solid Defenses, a decent O-Line, and good skill position players...But it all gets easier when you get the star QB...Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid Player, but no where near a great QB...If Luck comes out and The Bills Pick #1 Overall they will Draft Luck...Period end of story...If they feel any other QB is a Franchise QB and they are still around when The Bills Pick, they will pick that QB...It's all but a done deal...The only questions now are where will they Pick and who will Pick ahead of them that may take a QB...No matter what the odds are still against the Bills getting a 1st round QB purely because Luck likely stays in. But you can write this one in pen, if The Bills get the chance they will take the Franchise QB in the 1st Round...And they would be right to do so...

[truth on hold]

+1

 

We need to get rid of the losing attitude around here. By winning the majority of our remaining games we will still get a decent draft pick (we're not going to be 8-8), and better yet, we go into next year knowing we can win.

 

My bet is we end up picking 4th next year. Hopefully we don't get another Mike Williams.

Thats a bunch of BS. Teams don't need to "learn how to win", teams need talent that make them win. If not how do you explain 1 & 15 seasons from Miami and Atlanta one year, that lead to promising drafts that off season and playoffs the very next season?

Edited November 15, 2010 by Joe_the_6_pack