Cash

First off, great post! Thanks for the research! As to your questions, from the pre-draft comments, it sounds like the pick's either a DE or QB. (As long as Ralph keeps mentioning getting a QB every time he speaks, that has to be considered a frontrunner.) As much as people like to throw around the word smokescreen, Nix & Gailey's comments last year made it fairly clear that they were targeting Spiller. So far this year, there's been a lot of talk about needing 1 or 2 DEs. Plus, the Bills frequently do the move of cutting or trading the high-priced vet, then drafting his replacement in the first round. As for whether they'll pick the right one, I doubt it. It's too early to declare anyone a bust, but none of last year's top 3 picks have really shown anything yet, and 2 of those were on the D-line. Neither Troup nor Carrington showed anything last year. D-linemen frequently take a while to develop, so no judgments yet, but also no reason for confidence/faith. Out of last year's draft, only Moats showed something to suggest he's a good pick, and he didn't do that until he was moved to OLB. He was drafted to play ILB. Now, obviously some of those guys were hurt, and some others might turn it around, and that's fine. But I'm just not seeing anything (other than blind faith or extreme optimism) to suggest that Nix is the guy who will reverse the Bills' horrible draft record. Hope I'm wrong, though.

Walter hated the Maybin pick: http://walterfootball.com/offseason2009buf.php "I don't understand this. The Bills need a left tackle, the second-highest position of value in the NFL. Michael Oher was a no-brainer. But even if Buffalo didn't want Oher, what about Brian Orakpo? Did the Bills forget he was on the board? Aaron Maybin had only one year of production at Penn State. He's way too unproven to be selected over solid prospects like Oher and Orakpo. (Pick Grade: D)" If you check out his overall Bills' draft grade (too long to quote here), he specifically mentions Todd McShay and Trent Dilfer as having high praise for the Bills' draft. McFraud was very bullish on Maybin. Can't find the ESPN clip of when Maybin was drafted, but here's McShay's pre-draft breakdown of Maybin: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4094460 I personally remember McShay gushing over Maybin when the Bills drafted him, calling him the best pass-rusher in the draft. I'm not sure of that, but that's how I remember it. Mayock was less enthused:

My prediction: no OL drafted by the Bills with a top 100 pick. I don't see anything new about the front office rhetoric this year. OT is always talked about as a priority, and addressed via marginal free agents and late round picks.

I was clapping and cheering very loudly when Bruce announced Marshawn Lynch as our first-round pick. I was very confused and disappointed when Donte Whitner was announced as our first-round pick.

But if QBs take 2-3 years to develop, shouldn't we grab one now, so that he's developed by the time we've filled all those holes? Personally, I don't want either Newton or Gabbert, both of whom I think will bust. But if QBs truly take so long to develop, you can't afford to wait until all your holes are filled before drafting one.

So Richardson is trying to form an NFL-only Tea Party? I'm all for it. Right now it's just basic stuff like, "we need to take back our league," but pretty soon he'll be making up posters with a Hitler mustache drawn on Peyton Manning, comparing Drew Brees to Stalin, etc. Should be entertaining. The owners have more leverage, because they're better equipped to handle the loss of revenue a lockout brings, but I think they're overestimating how much leverage they have. I also think they're overestimating their ability to control the message. Most fans typically lean a little bit towards the owners in labor disputes (including me), but this one is different. For the first time in any sport, I'm squarely on the side of the players. They're willing to give up money to make a fair deal, but it's not enough for the owners. These guys are already filthy rich, making money hand over fist, but their greed apparently knows no bounds. Plus they keep claiming to have secret data that shows fans want an 18-game schedule, when every poll shows the opposite. Not to mention the base hypocrisy of claiming that head injuries/player safety is a major priority, but also we'd like to expose them to two additional weeks of vicious hits. Screw the owners. I can live without football for a while. I hope their hubris kills casual interest in the game, so I can get some cheap tickets in 2012.

And the league knew that there were problems with the seating, but didn't make any call like that. They just crossed their fingers and hoped that everything would magically be fixed in time. They gambled and lost, now they have to pay up. It's not just that people got displaced, it's the crappy and arrogant way the NFL tried to handle it.

But hasn't that been kind of our problem? Maybin's the only real BUST in the past decade. Whitner gave us mid 1st round solid production. The problem was, there was an impact star-level player available at a position we needed (Ngata), and we passed on him to take the solid guy who could play right away.

Great post, thanks for the research! But this is the think tank that drafted CJ Spiller at #9 last year. Von Miller at #3 wouldn't surprise me at all.

Any idea what Reggie Corner did to more than double his salary?

How can you say that? They do it all the time, especially when they have an extra pick in one of the middle rounds. They have Seattle's 4th this year. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if they packaged their 3rd and their 4th to move up into the middle of the 2nd round. 2006: Had 2 3rd-rounders. Used 1 plus their #2 to trade up for John McCargo. 2007: Had 2 3rd-rounders. Used 1 plus their #2 to trade up for Paul Posluszny. 2008: Had 2 4th-rounders, used them both. 2009: Had 2 4th-rounders. Used 1 plus their #3 to trade up for Andy Levitre. 2010: No extra picks until 6th round. No trades. Nix publicly admitted they tried to trade back into late 1st round (but not for Tebow). 2011: Have 2 4th-rounders, we'll see what they do. But "no way" is an overstatement.

Great post! I'm also a bit concerned about Von Miller. The other day, Adam Schefter tweeted that he was hearing Von Miller as a top 5 pick. It sounded to me like he might have had a source with the Bills saying that they're in love with Miller. And it does kind of seem like a Bills-style pick. But if Nix's season wrap-up comments are to be believed, he thinks we're okay at OLB with Merriman in the fold, and wants to focus on ILB, plus he thinks we're too small at LB and need to get bigger. That would suggest he's not enamored of Von Miller. Great name, though. I'm also very high on Casey Matthews. If his father and brother were/are that good, chances are he won't be a bust. And I know he's undersized, but he seems to fly around the field and make tremendous plays. I'd love to grab him, as long as it wasn't at #3 overall. Chris Brown's reports from the practices make Baylor's Phil Taylor sound like BJ Raji. Anyone got a strong opinion on Taylor?

Nice strawman. Who is suggesting we cut Spiller? We're just trying to point out that he's been a terrible, horrible pick so far. All the pre-draft arguments against drafting Spiller have been largely spot-on to date. It's not that Spiller is a bad player who doesn't deserve a roster spot, it's that he's done nothing to justify being picked ninth overall. Last year, he was a decent return man and a mediocre backup running back who touched the ball about 11-12 times a game, including returns and fair catches. That's a major disappointment even for a 2nd-round pick, much less a top 10 pick. Especially when the pro-Spiller arguments around draft day were based around instant impact, excitement, gamebreaking plays, and BPA. We didn't get a lot of that, especially from scrimmage. Now there's some revisionist history going around, saying that he needs time to learn how to run in the NFL, there's a learning curve, etc. Awesome. I hope he figures it out. I don't *want* the Bills to draft poorly, I'm just past the point of making excuses for their sh***y picks. Spiller made no sense in foresight and hasn't made sense yet in hindsight. And he's going to have to make the All-Pro Team to wind up as the BPA. Sometimes teams flout the conventional wisdom and have great success, like the Jaguars with Tyson Alualu last year. But when the Bills flout the conventional wisdom, they tend to end up looking foolish. Whitner. McCargo. Bringing back Jauron in 2009. Cutting Bledsoe to start Losman. Drafting McGahee. The jury's still out on the hirings of Buddy Nix & Chan Gailey, the draftings of Spiller & Troup, and the signing of Merriman, but we're not off to a great start with any of them. I really hope they turn it around, but I need to see some proof before I start buying it. And for the record, if we stink again next year (which I also expect), I would tend to *not* want to fire Gailey, unless Bill Cowher was willing to come here (he's expected to return to the NFL in 2012). But since Cowher and Gailey are good buddies, I doubt Cowher would have much interest in getting his buddy fired, or joining the moribund team with no franchise player that fired his buddy. So realistically, I would say keep Gailey, assuming the team plays hard for him.

No, we don't know where Modrak had Maybin rated. But according to Ralph in Gaughan's article, Modrak is the one who sets the board. Do you really think there's any way that Maybin was something like #108 on the board, but Jauron picked him at #11, and that flew? That's ridiculous. Sure, I'm willing to buy that Modrak had other available players ahead of Maybin on the big board. But realistically, it couldn't have been many. And it seems pretty likely to me that Modrak had Maybin as his #1 rated DE, ahead of Orakpo. It's just hard for me to believe that Jauron would overrule the draft board within a position. I totally get the idea that Jauron wanted DE, so he overrode Modrak's recommendation of a LB, but it's far-fetched to think that Maybin wasn't still very high on that draft board. And that's not the only example, either. What about John McCargo? Is there any way that the Bills traded up to get him if he didn't have a first-round grade on the draft board that Modrak put together?

I don't get how anyone can logically defend the Bills on this one. They were 29th in the league in total payroll (which suggests cheapness), and 30th in the league in cost per win (which suggests incompetence). Of course, a more thorough analysis would include front office costs (GM, scouts, coaching staff, etc.), but I imagine the Bills would get slightly worse if those were added in. Now, there is one caveat: Due to the restrictions on free agency in the last year of the CBA, there was an unusually limited pool of free agents available last year, so it's possible the Bills were willing to spend money, but (correctly) figured that no one out there was worth spending it on. But I'm not taking it on blind faith that they're going to start either: 1) Opening up the checkbook, or 2) Spending money wisely. They haven't done either one in a couple years now, and our GM has said publicly that he doesn't view free agency as a major way to build the team. His comments were to the effect of, you should spend your money on re-signing your own players. They've done some of that (Chris Kelsay and Shawne Merriman, and hopefully Poz), but not enough to significantly increase the payroll next year. Let's face it, to get better, this team needs to either start bringing in outside talent while not blowing their draft picks, OR start nailing their draft picks and never ever let a talented player leave in free agency. Unlike some people, I'm fine with the second option, I'm just not confident it's going to happen.

Good news! Nice to see us hire someone with NFL experience. It is kind of weird that one of George Edwards' position coaches outranks him (Assistant Head Coach > Defensive Coordinator > Linebackers Coach), but hopefully they can make it work.

Not that I'm a fan, but what talent is he supposed to have? He's a season-ticket holder whose gimmick is a fireman's helmet painted like a Jets helmet. Is he supposed to be able to sing or something?

Because it's really hard to know for sure that the tiny Samoan kid from USC with the crazy hair is going to become Troy Polamalu in the NFL. I absolutely agree with you that Polamalu (or Ed Reed, or maybe Bob Sanders if he wasn't so brittle) would be worth a top 5 pick in just about any draft. And I can see a scenario where drafting a S that high would be justified (probably it's a pretty weak draft at the top). But teams get themselves into trouble when they draft guys like Roy Williams, LaRon Landry, Michael Huff, and (you guessed it) Donte Whitner in the top 10, hoping that he'll become the next Polamalu or Reed, when he just becomes a good starting safety. Game-changing safeties like Polamalu are so rare, it's very difficult to justify taking a safety with a top 10 (let alone top 5!) pick. Even if he pans out, chances are he won't be able to affect the game the way a pass-rusher or run-stuffing DT or lockdown corner would. Actually, lockdown corners are almost as rare as impact safeties, which is why you don't see a lot of corners drafted in the top 3 (although you do see a good number around 5-10). If you look at the history of super-high picks, there's 2 factors at play: 1.) Biggest impact on the game if he pans out 2.) Lowest risk of him being a total bust Since QB has by far the biggest impact of any position, it's no surprise that they go top 5 all the time. LT actually works for both, because it's the #2 most important position on offense, but even if the guy can't cut it, you can move him to RT or G and there's a good chance he'll be effective there (see Robert Gallery). Safeties are pretty low under both factors, so it's no surprise they don't get drafted much.

Uh, only if you don't count preseason, training camp, or OTAs. Try 2 months.

The main problem I have with the Bills' stance on coaching is that even when our hires work out, we get guys who are solid but unspectacular (and presumably cost-efficient). But for guys like that to win it all, don't we need to have the most talented team, or close to it? Yes, every coach needs good players to win, but who on the Bills current staff (or Jauron's, or Mularkey's, or Greggo's) is capable of coming up with an offensive or defensive scheme to outfox a good coach with a good team? (And yes, I specified O or D to prevent three dozen wise guys from bringing up Bobby April.) Maybe I'm overreacting to the Jets win over the Pats, but you can't deny that Rex Ryan is a great defensive strategist. Sure he's got talented players, but he comes up with effective schemes to utilize those players. His D sometimes (not always) outplays more talented teams because of his gameplans. When was the last time the Bills did that on O or D? When we win, it's because we played better, not because the other team got outcoached. And since we have bad players, we usually play worse than the other team. It's very frustrating. I'm sick of hearing that these first-timers and nobodies on the coaching staff are "teachers." You know what "teacher" means? Cheap. What, every other team has position coaches who can't tell their players what the proper technique is? Get real. How about hiring guys who have been successful in their positions for NFL teams? No, we have to stick with George Edwards, because no one could coach those bums to be a good defense. Maybe not, but what awesome defensive plays did George Edwards draw up that decent players could take advantage of? Guh.

QFT. More the first paragraph (facts) than the second (opinions), although I happen to mostly agree with those opinions. The Pats are either younger or better than us (or both) at every position except maybe long snapper and kicker. They were 12 games better than us this season, and with all their draft picks, they have arguably more ability to improve through the draft than the Bills do, even though we're picking 3rd and they're picking 28th. The Pats famously don't spend much in free agency, but the Bills spend even less, and have been up front about eschewing trades and free agency for player acquisition*. So yeah, a win might happen in the short term, but it would essentially be a fluke. There's no likely scenario for the Bills to not just win a game, but be the better team any time soon. That doesn't mean everything's written in stone, of course. The Pats have drafted poorly before, although their last 2-3 have been good. Maybe they have 2-3 bad drafts in a row, and we don't. Brady will definitely fall off and/or retire at some point, and the Pats might have a lot of trouble finding a successor. Combine that kind of stuff with the Bills showing a complete reversal in front office and coaching competence, and we might start our own stretch of dominance. It happened that way with the Dolphins, except the Dolphins stayed really good. *As an aside, given how bad the Bills draft, shouldn't we be all about trading for proven players? A first or second round pick practically brings a king's ransom these days. I guess no one's truly available unless there's something wrong with them, but I'd rather roll the dice with problem guys like Santonio Holmes or Marshawn Lynch than with the Bills' ability to find good players, especially at the top.

Fixed. And a great point in principle, even if you were off by 2 years. I'm not personally a fan of any QB in this draft, and I tend to doubt any will pan out at #3 overall. But in principle, this idea that you're going to draft a 5th-round guy, then hope he's good in 3 years? It's terrible. There's a reason that QBs bust so frequently: The position is SO important that teams are willing to take huge risks in the first round. Not the case with less-important positions like LB, C, G, or S. (Let's face it, Michael Huff and Whitner back-to-back are about the biggest historical busts at S, and both are actually pretty decent players. Safeties don't get a first-round grade unless they're nearly sure things.) In general, you've got a much better chance at getting a good LB late in the draft than a good QB.

Obvious troll is obvious. Elite defense + elite running game + elite O-line + shaky QB = 2006-2008 Vikings. Good stuff. Best case is probably: Arguably best defense in NFL history + elite running game + mediocre QB = 2000 Ravens. Nice job winning one of the worst Super Bowls ever, but not really the sustained success that most fans are dreaming about.

I don't like either QB at #3, but I think I could talk myself into either one. I voted for Prince Amukamura Von Miller (which is a weird name for a German prince, but whatever), because neither one seems like an abject stud. But from what I'm reading, AJ Green and Patrick Peterson are the two biggest locks in the entire draft. Every team can use a shutdown corner, including the Bills - especially if McGee can't get healthy and Florence leaves. I'm not saying Peterson would be anywhere near my first choice, but I could live with it. As for Green, c'mon people. I know he's a local product and all, but Naaman Roosevelt does not belong on an NFL field. One nice screen pass notwithstanding, neither does Donald Jones (at least not on offense). Take another look at our passing and scoring numbers the last month or two, and tell me we wouldn't be helped by an upgrade at WR. Especially since Chan loves playing 4 and 5 WR sets. Again, Green wouldn't be my first choice, but from everything I've read so far, he's about as big a lock as Andre Johnson or Megatron. For a team with such a horrible track record in the first round, isn't there something to be said for taking the safest player in the draft, who does fill a need, even if it's not the biggest need?

Yup. It seems unthinkable that there wouldn't be a draft, but plenty of sports leagues don't have drafts. It's just one part of the CBA. The NFL makes a ton of money off their draft, so it's pretty much a mortal lock that it comes back in some form, but beyond that, it's hard to say much. If the lockout lasts over 13-14 months, we probably won't have a 2012 draft at all. Another interesting tidbit that pertains to draft order is that Andrew Luck, assuming he graduates, may be eligible for the supplemental draft. Regardless of what order is decided on for the regular draft (assuming there is one in 2012), the supplemental draft order is always chosen randomly. So the dude may have some control over where he goes, at least in the sense of having multiple options.