Cash

Interesting take. In this scenario, what do you see as the usual d-line rotation? Especially at 1-tech DT.

Sorry, I was in this thread early, then dropped off for a while. Can anyone catch me up on why there's a whole "trade for DJ Moore" sidebar? Is it just because they have the same last name? If so, I'd like to start an additional sidebar about the great Herman Moore, star WR for those 90s Barry Sanders Lions teams. His best season came in 1995, when he caught a league-leading 123 passes for 1686 yards and 14 touchdowns. Dude was like an early Megatron prototype - 6'4", 210 lbs, great hands and jumping ability. As for Elijah, thanks to @Normaliswear for the May 1st info. Hopefully that's accurate and we sign him May 2nd. I'm a little skeptical though, just because we're currently at a net -2 in the comp pick formula, so it's pretty unlikely we'd care about whether Moore counts or not. I'm still fully on board to sign Moore after looking at Spotrac's list of free agent WRs. He's young, potentially still getting better, would add speed to our offense, and can play inside and out. This thread has included some evidence that he's better on the outside than in the slot, so I hope the Bills would give him a chance at both and not just pigeonhole him as slot-only.

Yeah, I think this is a fair criticism. Both the depth and pipeline at WR are pretty shaky right now. I'm fine with the stated approach of, "we don't need a true #1 WR, and especially not at market price for a #1 WR". But we can't put scrubs out there, either. There's plenty of question marks with our top 4 WRs, but they are all legitimate NFL players, and depending on how well Palmer works out, they might be a really effective group in this offense. But what happens if any of them get hurt? Our current WR depth chart gets scary real quick. A lot of us would like Beane to get into the habit of taking a WR somewhere in the round 3-5 range, maybe not every year, but often. Most of those guys can play at least a little bit, and some of them develop into solid starters or even stars. Knowing that we won't be able to commit a ton of cap $ to the WR position makes it extra important to have a cost-controlled pipeline at the position. And again, we don't necessarily need major stars at WR, but we do need competent NFL players across the board. (And if one of those picks happens to turn into a star, well that's just fine.)

My two cents: I think it'll be very similar to last year - within the sever contstraints of available cap space and who's available, they'll do what they can to improve the team. Maybe it's only 1 stab at a bargain-bin vet instead of 2 this year. I'm guessing the list of guys they'll look at is something like Moore, Cooper, Claypool, Agholor, Chark, and MAYBE Deonte Harty if there's no bad blood from him being such a dud last time around. Both years WR has kind of been the runt of the offseason litter. I've seen that thought a few places. It makes some sense, but I think it's important to note that it's like a goal line running play in the sense that there's basically 1 row of defenders then no one behind them. So for my preference, I want someone at least fast enough to not get caught if he breaks through the line. So I think I'd stil favor speedy guys who are good in the open field over convential halfbacks.

Wait, we didn't win the Super Bowl???? This is the first I'm hearing of this.

Or did he just fully hit the wall last season and is just cooked now? No matter what, it's puzzling.

Agree with the first 3 paragraphs. C'est la vie. As to Palmer, I don't really buy it but there is some groundwork laid for me to be wrong. Palmer apparently has great analytics, from what I've seen played almost always at X, and averaged over 15 yards/catch the last two seasons. Him being just good enough to keep teams away from the Ravens/Texans game plan last year would be a huge help to the offense. I'd be really suprised by a Jeudy-like breakout season, but I don't think we need that for Palmer to be a really impactful signing.

My hot take is that Ogunjobi could be on the chopping block. Presumably as a trade rather than cut candidate, and maybe dead cap stuff makes both of those impossible - I haven't checked. But something about how the Bills didn't find out about his suspension until after they'd agreed to terms... just seems like they'd be willing to cut bait quicker than usual.

Appreciate your thoughts as always, @Shaw66. And I agree with most of the above. But to some extent, you're arguing against a strawman. Most of the criticism I've seen on this board isn't "we need Jamarr Chase", it's "we were dead last in WR separation last year and looked like garbage against the Ravens and Texans", with a little of "Josh Allen had the ball with the game on the line and our offense turned the ball over on downs". As good as our offense was last year, it had a deficiency - it was limited in its ability to attack down the field. Most teams didn't have the personnel and/or scheme to take advantage of that deficiency, but the ones that did are also the ones we face in the playoffs every year. @HappyDays says it well here: Similar to the Bills' defensive philosophy of having starter-level players rotating in and out on the d-line, the Bills need to have guys across the skill positions who can take advantage when the ball comes their way. On key 3rd downs, we don't have a go-to guy that we're going to force the ball to. That means that to some extent, the defense gets to dictate where the ball is going, and smart defenses will ensure that goes to the weakest link on offense. I feel like there's two things here: Our current group has good players, but no one who has shown they can win deep at the NFL level. (Maybe 1 guy, depending on how you feel about Palmer. I haven't watched enough Chargers games to have a real opinion, and I'm taking the stance that I'll believe it when I see it. "Show me the baby" and whatnot.) Our current group has some good players, but the WR depth chart gets ugly really quick. #1 is a problem because good defenses don't have to worry about the whole field. By the way, "win deep" doesn't have to be a fast guy - see George Pickens for example. But it does have to be a guy who produces actual success for the offense when the defense dares us to try it. If defenses adjust and take away the deep ball, then we have room for the WR screens and over the middle stuff to work better. Right now, we have 0 or 1 guys who can do that, and it's fair for fans to worry about that. #2 is a problem because... well, look at the Texans game last year. We don't need any elite WRs, but we need everyone who takes the field to be a legit NFL player, because there's a good chance the ball comes his way on 3rd down. Right now, we have 4 WRs who fit that bill, and who knows, maybe Shavers is a 5th. But we typically have 5 active on game day and injuries happen. If Josh Palmer gets hurt, do we have anyone on the roster who can get open against man coverage? If Shakir and Samuel get hurt, how do we feel about a top three of Palmer/Coleman/Shavers? Final note: I think or maybe just hope that in private, Beane and McDermott mostly agree with me on this. That's why they signed MVS and Claypool last year, and that's why they brought in Elijah Moore for a visit the other day. In their ideal world, they'd get a guy who is both fast and can win deep, and failing that, they'd get a guy who provides 1 of the 2.

Regarding Coleman specifically, I think it's more than just the wrist injury. Looking at NFL players as a whole, there's pretty clear statistical evidence that the biggest jump in production is between years 1 and 2. It doesn't always play out that way at an individual level - Micah Parsons was a sensation as a rookie, Eric Moulds broke out in year 3, Michael Clayton had a great rookie year ages ago, then never did anything again. But it's not crazy or clutching at straws to think that Coleman will be a significantly better NFL player in year 2 than year 1. Especially, IMO, since he's a pretty young prospect - he's about to turn 22 in a couple weeks. He's at the point where most NFL players are still ascending athletically.

Fully agreed. On the offense side, the best thing going for us statistically is that last year was a new scheme and new philosophy under a new OC. That’s the kind of thing that can have a major shift on TO rate. But, even granting that the Everybody Eats offense is one that inherently takes care of the ball, there’s only so much they have control of. Last year, we did a great job taking care of the ball, and also got most of the 50/50 breaks.

I think maybe sometimes fans get stuck in the mode of everyone is either short or tall. Hairston is definitely not tall for a CB at 5’11; he’s average. IMO 5’9” is where you start getting into Short, and Tall starts at about 6’1”.

Me.

Good post, @Logic! I was planning to do my own draft recap post, but it turned out to be more of a holistic "state of the roster" musing. This thread is as good a place as any for it: Offense: I've read maybe a third of the WR discussion posts flying around right now (so like 10,000 of the 30,000 such posts), and I recently listened to Beane's 3 post-draft pressers and his testy interview with WGR. Here's where I'm at. I think Beane has a point when he points to the success numbers of last year's offense. I also think that, while he's telling the truth in the sense that he believes what he's saying, he's not telling the full truth. I think the Bills went into the draft figuring that sticking to their board would result in picking a WR by the end of round 5 or so. In Beane's Day 3 presser, he said a couple of times that they stuck to their board except at the very end. He didn't specify where that changeover happened, but at a minimum it suggests that Kaden Prather was not at the top of their board, and they specifically were drafting BWRA at that spot. And likewise, in comes Elijah Moore for a visit. Whether him or not, I expect that Beane will sign 1-2 cheap vets between now and training camp, similar to Claypool and MVS last year. There's no way they feel they're set at WR with just Shakir, Coleman, Palmer, Samuel, Shavers, and Prather. [Friends: No one else is worth listing. I'm sorry if you feel otherwise, but it's true.] I've posted before about the need to at least try to improve on offense. The short version: 1.) Our TO rates on both sides of the ball were unsustainably high and likely to regress even if we play as well or better next year, 2.) Our offense had a serious flaw pre-Cooper and Cooper only mitigated the flaw a medium amount, and 3.) Last year our season ended when we turned the ball over on downs with a chance to take the lead late in the game. [Friends: I know the defense was worse than the offense. Two things can be true. Under the growth mindset that McBeane always preach about, you should be trying to improve both your strengths and your weaknesses.] Have we improved on offense? I think there's a chance, but only if we get tangible development from one or more of our returning young guys, OR if Joe Brady takes a leap as OC. At this point of the offseason, it looks like we will once again have a GREAT regular-season attack, which is once again vulnerable to elite defenses clogging the middle and daring us to beat them 1-on-1 on the outside. That's Good Enough (to win the Super Bowl), and that's a good thing! But I'm a little wistful because I don't think it'll be Elite. It'll take a while to know for sure, because IMO you can't tell the difference except against teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens. Defense: Last year's defense was bizarre. Great at forcing TOs, abysmal on 3rd down, better against the run and worse against the pass than casuals thought. Next year's should be better, but no one cares. We care about, "Will the defense be good enough to get a stop when we need one in the playoffs?" I have no idea, but I'm hoping for yes. I'm going to ignore the LBs, b/c they're basically unchanged from last year, and talk a bit about the line and secondary. First, the secondary: I love our draft additions. I feel great about our CB situation, both outside and nickel. I'm very curious to see who wins the starting safety job next to Rapp. Most people are expecting Bishop, but he showed very little promise last year. He was definitely hurt by missing camp, and McD says safety is 2nd-hardest after MLB to learn in his defense, so there are some valid excuses there. But there's also a not-crazy scenario where Bishop is just a bust, and never gets on the field by choice. I think if anyone is going to be Micah Hyde 2.0, it's probably Hancock, but I'd be shocked if he was in the mix to start in 2025. I'm intrigued by Darrick Forrest, but honestly just because of McD's past success signing Hyde and Poyer. On to the d-line. I'm a little puzzled by and a little skeptical about the Bills' approach at DT: Daquon Jones - 1T only Ed Oliver - 3T only Larry Ogunjobie - 3T primarily TJ Sanders - per Beane's presser, 3T primarily but can/will play some 1T Deone Walker - someone posted on his thread that he spent like 45% of snaps at 3T, 20-25% at 1T, and another 20-25% at DE or something like that DeWayne Carter - sounds like he's switching from primarily 3T to primarily 1T - maybe full time? We have 1 dude on the roster who has spent more time at 1T than 3T in either college or pro. That's weird. Is that a sign that the Bills are ahead of the curve, or high on their own supply? We'll find out. I'm not too worried about the run defense. They always look vulnerable against the run, and almost always wind up not being killed by the run. I think my hope/best case scenario is that we get creative in both how we line up and deploy guys. Similar to how Lorenzo Alexander was used when McD first took over, but with several guys being used like that. It sounded like that was the plan with Hoecht when he was signed, and the rookies feed into that as well from what I've read. First impression prediction for each pick: Hairston: Multi-year starter, potential star Sanders: Contributes as a rookie, becomes above-average starter Jackson: Similar career to AJ Epenesa, maybe a little better Walker: Either turns out he just can't play in the NFL, or he becomes an impact player for us Hancock: Makes the team; starting safety down the road Hawes: Makes the team; 10 year career as a good blocking TE Strong: Makes the team, core special teamer at first; maybe grows into a starter-level player Lundt: Cut in training camp, picked up by another team Prather: Cut in training camp, makes our practice squad, never amounts to anything in the regular season

@GunnerBill Thanks as always for these write-ups! I always appreciate that you stick to your guns, while still acknowledging that sometimes you're just wrong. (As is everyone.) These posts always a highlight for me.

I've seen enough. Sign him! Of note, the last 2 highlights in the clip are deep routes (featuring bad QB play), one of which came at X against press coverage. He definitely wasn't asked to go deep much, especially last year, but it's nice to see that it went well for him at least twice in his career. Counterpoint: KJ Hamler has 42 career NFL receptions. Only 12 of which came after his rookie year, and he's had zero NFL statistics since 2022. I don't know offhand how many PS elevations he got between us last year and the Colts in 2023, but it's pretty damning either way. (Either both teams didn't think he'd help them on the field, or he got multiple chances and did nothing with them.) Never say never, but at this point the overwhelming likelihood is that Hamler just isn't an NFL player. Moore's lowest catch total in 4 years was 37. In 3 of his 4 pro years, Moore has caught more passes than KJ Hamler's whole career to date. Obviously there's a lot more to it than just catch totals, but it serves as a useful shorthand. There's a reason Moore is still unsigned after the draft, but he's been a viable if unspectacular player the past 4 years. There's really no comparison with where Hamler is currently at.

Are we sure he didn't mean Bill Belichick and Bill O'Brien? The 2023 Patriots were aggressively trying to trade into this draft.

Oh, don't get me wrong - I'm fine with ANY position starting with our second 4th rounder. Late-round guys usually don't see the field on scrimmage downs as rookies anyway. If Terrell Davis 2.0 happens to be available in the 6th round, we'll all be thrilled if the Bills take him. We might not realize how thrilled we are until like 2027, but still.

RE: TE: I'm fine with Davidson as TE3 this year. I'm also fine if they draft a TE, but it's not a position I'd especially consider in rounds 2 or 3 (if we wind up with a 3). If we're in round 4 or later, and the top guy available far and away is a TE, by all means go for it. But if not, I'm very comfortable with some combo of Davidson/Gilliam/UDFA/vet bargain bin FA.

What film did you watch? I prefer things presented WITH comment, Here's a TL;DW: Good tackle. Hairston takes perfect position, ballcarrier squares up and tries to truck-stick, Hairston brings him down for a solo tackle. 2-yard gain. Bad tackle. Hairston takes okay position but gets juked as the ballcarrier is coming through the hole. Good tackle. Hairston comes up in run support, maintains his gap/assignment instead of chasing after the ball, and the cutback brings the ballcarrier right to him. Along with a teammate, brings the ballcarrier down for a short gain, and one of them forced a fumble. Bad tackle. I thought this was gonna be a highlight until the runner juked Hairston out of his shoes. Hairston came up beautifully to shut down the run; just didn't finish. Good tackle. Hairston comes up, keeps the runner from getting to the edge, and works in tandem with a teammate to bring the runner down for a short gain. Good tackle. Receiver is hit almost as soon as he catches the ball and gets 0 RAC. I don't know if they gave him the first down on forward progress at the moment of the catch, or if they thought the WR was taking himself backwards and marked him short. Bad tackle. Hairston got himself a bit out of position at the catch and the receiver took advantage. Hairston had a slim chance at a shoestring tackle but didn't convert. Bad tackle. Hairston was in the right place at the right time, but got royally stiff-armed. Bad tackle, but not that bad. Hairston came up for what would've been a really nice stop, and got his hands on the runner, but they slipped off via a spin move. I rate this not that bad because Hairston still slowed down the runner enough to let a teammate come in and save the TD. Bad tackle. Hairston was way off the receiver at the catch and overpursued to try to limit RAC. Receiver made a nice move and burned Hairston. Good tackle. Great solo tackle in space; ballcarrier never had a chance. Short gain on the play. Good tackle, but not that good. Not that good because it was the opposite of #10 above - Hairston waited for the receiver to come to him. Once he did, Hairston made a nice tackle, but it was like 12 yards down the field. Bad tackle, but not that bad. Very similar to #4 above, to the point where I had to rewind to make sure it wasn't a repeat. This one was a little better than #4 because Hairston did get hands on the ballcarrier and impede his progress, which helped his teammates finish the tackle. Good tackle. Came off his initial man in coverage, picked up the checkdown, and made another nice solo tackle in space. Good tackle. Receiver was trying hard to get some RAC and Hairston wasn't having it. Rode the receiver laterally, eventually brought him down with some help from teammates. So that's 8/15 as good tackles and 7/15 as bad tackles. Definitely some room for improvement, but not cause for concern IMO.

Shedeur Sanders, obviously. I think he can bulk up and play 1-technique. Heading into the 2nd round, I'm looking for about what I wanted in the first: Players who will make a positive impact. If that's just 1 guy in a tradeup, I'm okay with it as long as he actually pans out. If it's 2 guys, and both of them pan out, even better. I'm hoping there'll be value at 1tech DT, but if there isn't, I won't kill the Bills for not reaching. I'd only be upset if they drafted an RB and an ILB or something like that. Anyone they draft tonight needs to be someone we can reasonably expect to see the field this year, and hopefully start at some point of their rookie deal. I don't think that's too much to ask. My ideal Night 2 would give us a 2nd-tier 1tech, and whoever is the biggest faller at Edge or WR. I also think it's pretty likely that the Bills move up at least once, maybe twice, tonight. Gunner had 57 "2nd round worthy" prospects on his board, including borderline 2nd/3rd grades. If the Bills board is similar, that puts both of our picks right on the edge of where the 2nd round grades will run out. (And of course, if the last couple 2nd round graded guys are at positions where we're set this year, that's not super appealing.) Especially if we get in the range where a trade up is only going to cost us one of our 5th rounders or something like that.

Leon?

In that case, I think he's the steal of the draft!

Yeah, even though I'm usually on the side of "trade down, especially if you can get next year's #1", I find myself liking this trade for the Jaguars. Let's face it: they've been pretty irrelevant for a while now. Hunter gives them a legitimate star who is incredibly cool, and he's happy to be there! At a minimum, he's going to sell a lot of jerseys, get the Jaguars mentioned in national media, and inspire a medium number of kids to become Jags fans. (Only a medium number because kids tend to like winners first, then cool players on 8-9 teams second.) I totally get the arguments that you should never pay up that kind of price for a non-QB, but no rule is going to be right 100% of the time in something as complex as the draft. Hunter looks like a special player, and by definition there aren't a lot of those floating around.

Thank you. In general, I'm really sick of these partial-testing "RAS" numbers being thrown around. The agility drills are there to measure a major part of a prospect's athletic profile. If a guy skips them, we don't really know his RAS, because the agility numbers are a significant component of RAS. Good grief! Now, speaking of Hairston specifically, I don't care what his real RAS would be, because he's very clearly a premier athlete when you see his combine workout or game highlights. Dude is both quick and fast, changes direction well, and looks super fluid. Some guys run track much better than they run football, and their 40 times are usually misleading. Hairston's highlights look like a guy with 4.28 speed.