Cash

Interesting take. In this scenario, what do you see as the usual d-line rotation? Especially at 1-tech DT.

Sorry, I was in this thread early, then dropped off for a while. Can anyone catch me up on why there's a whole "trade for DJ Moore" sidebar? Is it just because they have the same last name? If so, I'd like to start an additional sidebar about the great Herman Moore, star WR for those 90s Barry Sanders Lions teams. His best season came in 1995, when he caught a league-leading 123 passes for 1686 yards and 14 touchdowns. Dude was like an early Megatron prototype - 6'4", 210 lbs, great hands and jumping ability. As for Elijah, thanks to @Normaliswear for the May 1st info. Hopefully that's accurate and we sign him May 2nd. I'm a little skeptical though, just because we're currently at a net -2 in the comp pick formula, so it's pretty unlikely we'd care about whether Moore counts or not. I'm still fully on board to sign Moore after looking at Spotrac's list of free agent WRs. He's young, potentially still getting better, would add speed to our offense, and can play inside and out. This thread has included some evidence that he's better on the outside than in the slot, so I hope the Bills would give him a chance at both and not just pigeonhole him as slot-only.

Yeah, I think this is a fair criticism. Both the depth and pipeline at WR are pretty shaky right now. I'm fine with the stated approach of, "we don't need a true #1 WR, and especially not at market price for a #1 WR". But we can't put scrubs out there, either. There's plenty of question marks with our top 4 WRs, but they are all legitimate NFL players, and depending on how well Palmer works out, they might be a really effective group in this offense. But what happens if any of them get hurt? Our current WR depth chart gets scary real quick. A lot of us would like Beane to get into the habit of taking a WR somewhere in the round 3-5 range, maybe not every year, but often. Most of those guys can play at least a little bit, and some of them develop into solid starters or even stars. Knowing that we won't be able to commit a ton of cap $ to the WR position makes it extra important to have a cost-controlled pipeline at the position. And again, we don't necessarily need major stars at WR, but we do need competent NFL players across the board. (And if one of those picks happens to turn into a star, well that's just fine.)

My two cents: I think it'll be very similar to last year - within the sever contstraints of available cap space and who's available, they'll do what they can to improve the team. Maybe it's only 1 stab at a bargain-bin vet instead of 2 this year. I'm guessing the list of guys they'll look at is something like Moore, Cooper, Claypool, Agholor, Chark, and MAYBE Deonte Harty if there's no bad blood from him being such a dud last time around. Both years WR has kind of been the runt of the offseason litter. I've seen that thought a few places. It makes some sense, but I think it's important to note that it's like a goal line running play in the sense that there's basically 1 row of defenders then no one behind them. So for my preference, I want someone at least fast enough to not get caught if he breaks through the line. So I think I'd stil favor speedy guys who are good in the open field over convential halfbacks.

Wait, we didn't win the Super Bowl???? This is the first I'm hearing of this.

Or did he just fully hit the wall last season and is just cooked now? No matter what, it's puzzling.

Agree with the first 3 paragraphs. C'est la vie. As to Palmer, I don't really buy it but there is some groundwork laid for me to be wrong. Palmer apparently has great analytics, from what I've seen played almost always at X, and averaged over 15 yards/catch the last two seasons. Him being just good enough to keep teams away from the Ravens/Texans game plan last year would be a huge help to the offense. I'd be really suprised by a Jeudy-like breakout season, but I don't think we need that for Palmer to be a really impactful signing.

My hot take is that Ogunjobi could be on the chopping block. Presumably as a trade rather than cut candidate, and maybe dead cap stuff makes both of those impossible - I haven't checked. But something about how the Bills didn't find out about his suspension until after they'd agreed to terms... just seems like they'd be willing to cut bait quicker than usual.

Appreciate your thoughts as always, @Shaw66. And I agree with most of the above. But to some extent, you're arguing against a strawman. Most of the criticism I've seen on this board isn't "we need Jamarr Chase", it's "we were dead last in WR separation last year and looked like garbage against the Ravens and Texans", with a little of "Josh Allen had the ball with the game on the line and our offense turned the ball over on downs". As good as our offense was last year, it had a deficiency - it was limited in its ability to attack down the field. Most teams didn't have the personnel and/or scheme to take advantage of that deficiency, but the ones that did are also the ones we face in the playoffs every year. @HappyDays says it well here: Similar to the Bills' defensive philosophy of having starter-level players rotating in and out on the d-line, the Bills need to have guys across the skill positions who can take advantage when the ball comes their way. On key 3rd downs, we don't have a go-to guy that we're going to force the ball to. That means that to some extent, the defense gets to dictate where the ball is going, and smart defenses will ensure that goes to the weakest link on offense. I feel like there's two things here: Our current group has good players, but no one who has shown they can win deep at the NFL level. (Maybe 1 guy, depending on how you feel about Palmer. I haven't watched enough Chargers games to have a real opinion, and I'm taking the stance that I'll believe it when I see it. "Show me the baby" and whatnot.) Our current group has some good players, but the WR depth chart gets ugly really quick. #1 is a problem because good defenses don't have to worry about the whole field. By the way, "win deep" doesn't have to be a fast guy - see George Pickens for example. But it does have to be a guy who produces actual success for the offense when the defense dares us to try it. If defenses adjust and take away the deep ball, then we have room for the WR screens and over the middle stuff to work better. Right now, we have 0 or 1 guys who can do that, and it's fair for fans to worry about that. #2 is a problem because... well, look at the Texans game last year. We don't need any elite WRs, but we need everyone who takes the field to be a legit NFL player, because there's a good chance the ball comes his way on 3rd down. Right now, we have 4 WRs who fit that bill, and who knows, maybe Shavers is a 5th. But we typically have 5 active on game day and injuries happen. If Josh Palmer gets hurt, do we have anyone on the roster who can get open against man coverage? If Shakir and Samuel get hurt, how do we feel about a top three of Palmer/Coleman/Shavers? Final note: I think or maybe just hope that in private, Beane and McDermott mostly agree with me on this. That's why they signed MVS and Claypool last year, and that's why they brought in Elijah Moore for a visit the other day. In their ideal world, they'd get a guy who is both fast and can win deep, and failing that, they'd get a guy who provides 1 of the 2.

Regarding Coleman specifically, I think it's more than just the wrist injury. Looking at NFL players as a whole, there's pretty clear statistical evidence that the biggest jump in production is between years 1 and 2. It doesn't always play out that way at an individual level - Micah Parsons was a sensation as a rookie, Eric Moulds broke out in year 3, Michael Clayton had a great rookie year ages ago, then never did anything again. But it's not crazy or clutching at straws to think that Coleman will be a significantly better NFL player in year 2 than year 1. Especially, IMO, since he's a pretty young prospect - he's about to turn 22 in a couple weeks. He's at the point where most NFL players are still ascending athletically.

Fully agreed. On the offense side, the best thing going for us statistically is that last year was a new scheme and new philosophy under a new OC. That’s the kind of thing that can have a major shift on TO rate. But, even granting that the Everybody Eats offense is one that inherently takes care of the ball, there’s only so much they have control of. Last year, we did a great job taking care of the ball, and also got most of the 50/50 breaks.

I think maybe sometimes fans get stuck in the mode of everyone is either short or tall. Hairston is definitely not tall for a CB at 5’11; he’s average. IMO 5’9” is where you start getting into Short, and Tall starts at about 6’1”.

Me.

Good post, @Logic! I was planning to do my own draft recap post, but it turned out to be more of a holistic "state of the roster" musing. This thread is as good a place as any for it: Offense: I've read maybe a third of the WR discussion posts flying around right now (so like 10,000 of the 30,000 such posts), and I recently listened to Beane's 3 post-draft pressers and his testy interview with WGR. Here's where I'm at. I think Beane has a point when he points to the success numbers of last year's offense. I also think that, while he's telling the truth in the sense that he believes what he's saying, he's not telling the full truth. I think the Bills went into the draft figuring that sticking to their board would result in picking a WR by the end of round 5 or so. In Beane's Day 3 presser, he said a couple of times that they stuck to their board except at the very end. He didn't specify where that changeover happened, but at a minimum it suggests that Kaden Prather was not at the top of their board, and they specifically were drafting BWRA at that spot. And likewise, in comes Elijah Moore for a visit. Whether him or not, I expect that Beane will sign 1-2 cheap vets between now and training camp, similar to Claypool and MVS last year. There's no way they feel they're set at WR with just Shakir, Coleman, Palmer, Samuel, Shavers, and Prather. [Friends: No one else is worth listing. I'm sorry if you feel otherwise, but it's true.] I've posted before about the need to at least try to improve on offense. The short version: 1.) Our TO rates on both sides of the ball were unsustainably high and likely to regress even if we play as well or better next year, 2.) Our offense had a serious flaw pre-Cooper and Cooper only mitigated the flaw a medium amount, and 3.) Last year our season ended when we turned the ball over on downs with a chance to take the lead late in the game. [Friends: I know the defense was worse than the offense. Two things can be true. Under the growth mindset that McBeane always preach about, you should be trying to improve both your strengths and your weaknesses.] Have we improved on offense? I think there's a chance, but only if we get tangible development from one or more of our returning young guys, OR if Joe Brady takes a leap as OC. At this point of the offseason, it looks like we will once again have a GREAT regular-season attack, which is once again vulnerable to elite defenses clogging the middle and daring us to beat them 1-on-1 on the outside. That's Good Enough (to win the Super Bowl), and that's a good thing! But I'm a little wistful because I don't think it'll be Elite. It'll take a while to know for sure, because IMO you can't tell the difference except against teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens. Defense: Last year's defense was bizarre. Great at forcing TOs, abysmal on 3rd down, better against the run and worse against the pass than casuals thought. Next year's should be better, but no one cares. We care about, "Will the defense be good enough to get a stop when we need one in the playoffs?" I have no idea, but I'm hoping for yes. I'm going to ignore the LBs, b/c they're basically unchanged from last year, and talk a bit about the line and secondary. First, the secondary: I love our draft additions. I feel great about our CB situation, both outside and nickel. I'm very curious to see who wins the starting safety job next to Rapp. Most people are expecting Bishop, but he showed very little promise last year. He was definitely hurt by missing camp, and McD says safety is 2nd-hardest after MLB to learn in his defense, so there are some valid excuses there. But there's also a not-crazy scenario where Bishop is just a bust, and never gets on the field by choice. I think if anyone is going to be Micah Hyde 2.0, it's probably Hancock, but I'd be shocked if he was in the mix to start in 2025. I'm intrigued by Darrick Forrest, but honestly just because of McD's past success signing Hyde and Poyer. On to the d-line. I'm a little puzzled by and a little skeptical about the Bills' approach at DT: Daquon Jones - 1T only Ed Oliver - 3T only Larry Ogunjobie - 3T primarily TJ Sanders - per Beane's presser, 3T primarily but can/will play some 1T Deone Walker - someone posted on his thread that he spent like 45% of snaps at 3T, 20-25% at 1T, and another 20-25% at DE or something like that DeWayne Carter - sounds like he's switching from primarily 3T to primarily 1T - maybe full time? We have 1 dude on the roster who has spent more time at 1T than 3T in either college or pro. That's weird. Is that a sign that the Bills are ahead of the curve, or high on their own supply? We'll find out. I'm not too worried about the run defense. They always look vulnerable against the run, and almost always wind up not being killed by the run. I think my hope/best case scenario is that we get creative in both how we line up and deploy guys. Similar to how Lorenzo Alexander was used when McD first took over, but with several guys being used like that. It sounded like that was the plan with Hoecht when he was signed, and the rookies feed into that as well from what I've read. First impression prediction for each pick: Hairston: Multi-year starter, potential star Sanders: Contributes as a rookie, becomes above-average starter Jackson: Similar career to AJ Epenesa, maybe a little better Walker: Either turns out he just can't play in the NFL, or he becomes an impact player for us Hancock: Makes the team; starting safety down the road Hawes: Makes the team; 10 year career as a good blocking TE Strong: Makes the team, core special teamer at first; maybe grows into a starter-level player Lundt: Cut in training camp, picked up by another team Prather: Cut in training camp, makes our practice squad, never amounts to anything in the regular season

@GunnerBill Thanks as always for these write-ups! I always appreciate that you stick to your guns, while still acknowledging that sometimes you're just wrong. (As is everyone.) These posts always a highlight for me.