Cash

That's more or less what I meant by "chunk", yeah. The idea being that we have some money left over after accounting for rookies, all 53 on the roster, and practice squad. The Bills could elect to save all of that money for in-season signings or trades, or they could spend some or most of it. (Can't spend all of it, because you do have to leave some in case an AJ Klein situation happens.) I'd be suprised if they don't spend at least a significant portion of what they have available to spend. And notably, they could lay out more actual money than they have cap space, if they're willing to do a deal with void years. That's the only way they'd be able to sign OBJ, because I can't see him taking $5mil or less.

I'm not thrilled about it either, but in my experience every analytical metric touted as a be all, end all for anything usually winds up not holding up to scrutiny. Either because of an arbitrary cutoff (The Curse of 370), lack of sufficient sample size, or poor and/or biased interpretation by the analyst. So I see no reason to sweat it.

In order of my preference: Odell Beckham Jr - His last 2 stops have been highly successful (except for the injuries) as a mercenary receiver. Dude will be an injury risk for the rest of his career I think, but he can still play. And it's hard to go wrong with a guy who likely would've won a Super Bowl MVP if he didn't get hurt. I would have no problem with him mentoring Coleman, also. This is the only guy worth spending the Tre White money on, IMO. DJ Chark - I liked him a lot coming into the draft, and he did have some early production in Jacksonville. Size/speed guy who hasn't fully put it together, but also hasn't played with a QB nearly as good as Allen. Michael Thomas - His injury history makes Beckham look like Cal Ripken Jr. I don't think he'll ever play a full season again. But he's a guy who has been ELITE, and he showed some real flashes of his old self at times last season. He also disappeared a lot last season, but I'm not sure how much of that was because his relationship with the Saints was completely broken a couple years ago. On a 1 year deal, could he be both healthy and fully bought in? Gallup was the only other guy that interested me, and according to this thread he's off the market. 1 year, $3 million is about what I'd offer Chark or Thomas. Beckham will ask for (and get) significantly more than that. No matter what, I'll be super interested to see how the Bills spend the June 1st money. I'll be shocked if they don't sign someone with a decent chunk of it. But they could split it on maybe 2 Gallup-level signings, or put it all towards a bigger Beckham or Leonard Floyd-style signing, maybe with the help of void years. I think who they DON'T sign will be just as telling as who they do.

Yeah the big guys who also run fast and also can run routes usually don't go later than 5. Fitz and Megatron are the two that come to mind. Randy Moss would've been a top 5 pick if not for attitude concerns, and even with them should've gone top 10 for sure. But there's a very solid history of big guys who don't run fast, but can run routes going in the 2nd or later and turning out pretty good! Jerry Rice is obviously the Platinum Standard, and Anquan Boldin also jumps out on that front.

Pegula is "buying the dip." We spent a ton of cash to go mostly all-in the last couple years. Didn't work, and now we're taking the cap medicine for 1 year. Pretty sure the expectation in 2025 will be very high.

a) Not really? Just in the sense that you also need to pay him, and I don't think he's a good enough fit for the Bills to justify paying him what he's worth. b) Not much, because again, you also have to pay him. I like trading Day 3 picks for vets, and I like spending high picks on impact players, and I don't mind paying big free agency bucks to impact players. But I don't like trading valuable picks for the right to back up the Brinks truck. Sometimes it's worth it, like with the Diggs trade, but most of the time it's not.

Good call bringing up MLB. I was among the many who were shocked all offseason that they weren't adding more... then it turned out Bernard was really good, and I think the Bills knew it was a matter of when, not if for Bernard. Any chance we've got one of those in the WR room already? Mack Hollins - No way. He might be a nice addition in terms of attitude, etc, and maybe he can show the young guys the right way to work, but if he was gonna be a thing, it would've happened before he got here. Andy Isabella - Let's be real, people. Isabella is very fast, and he's the same size/skin color as a lot of our fans, and it's always fun to root for someone who looks like you. But he can't change direction at an NFL level - he can't run routes, can't return kicks, can't make anyone miss. He's had plenty of chances and there is no breakout coming. Justin Shorter - I'll believe it when I see it, and not a second sooner. When the #1 selling point of an NFL player is his recruiting rank out of high school, I tune out. (This is also why I was never sold on Trevor Lawrence as a "generational" QB prospect - I never once saw an argument for him as generational that didn't prominently feature his recruiting rank from 3 years prior. Who cares???) The track record for "top HS recruit who doesn't do much in college" is pretty weak IMO. Robert Foster had a few nice games when we were beyond desperate, but ultimately was not an NFL receiver. Tyrell Shavers - On their last podcast, Matt Parrino and Ryan Talbot noted that Beane mentioned Shavers before Shorter when talking about how they like the guys in the room. And IIRC, Beane also made a point of saying Shavers has been in the building almost every day in the offseason. This is a longshot, but it's not completely crazy. Like with Shorter, I'll believe it when I see it, but there is some precedent for super hard-working undrafted WR to develop into a legit player. And depending on what Shavers is doing in the building every day, it's possible the coaching staff knows that they've got something there. KJ Hamler - Beane talked him up a bit in his last presser as well. I think it's about 95% chance that he's just a bust a la Andy Isabella. But given Hamler's injuries, there's a chance he could still turn it around. Again, I'll believe it when I see it. Quintez Cephus - including him even though he wasn't "in the room" yet during Beane's press conference, but he's the guy Beane said they were about to sign. Even before the gambling suspension, he wasn't anything special. I wouldn't be shocked if he makes the team as backup X receiver or something, but I would be extremely shocked if he broke out. Of these guys, I'd say Shavers and Hamler are the only ones with a realistic chance of a Bernard-like season in 2024, with maybe an outside outside shot for Shorter. Of course, we don't have the info we need to make a real guess, but hopefully the coaching staff has a better idea based on seeing guys work in the offseason.

Great post and mostly great thread. I'll add my draft thoughts as well: 1. Keon Coleman - Overall I'm pretty happy with this pick. I specifically didn't do anything to decide which of the WRs I really wanted; I learned that lesson from the 2008 draft when the top 3 guys I wanted (Limas Sweed, Malcolm Kelly, and actual Bills pick James Hardy) all busted HARD at the NFL level. Unlike the 2008 Bills regime, this regime has earned the benefit of the doubt from me. So I was going in with the hope and expectation of "I hope they get the WR they want". I'm pretty sure they did, so that's good. And while many people have pointed out the risks and downside of this pick, there's some real positives as well. He's Big - 6'3", 210 lbs - that's like perfect Big Receiver size - and shifty enough to be a good punt returner. He's not even 21 yet and will get better athletically. How much better? Hard to say but very few human males have their speed/power athletic peak this young. And his vertical and broad jump (good measures of explosiveness) are already good by NFL WR standards. He also has less experience playing WR than other prospects, which again means he has room to get better.* Watching his highlights, I think his Madden "spectacular catch" rating should be very high and should translate to the NFL. I also think that he looks fast enough, but definitely doesn't have that 5th gear to pull away from guys. I was pretty confident even pre-draft that his game speed was functionally better than his 40 time, and I'm very encouraged by the tracking data from the combine that got posted. But on some of his punt return highlights, you can tell that he didn't get the TD because he didn't have any afterburners to turn on. I can live with that, especially if he can catch 50/50 balls. Prediction: Starter from day 1; plus player for his career. How plus is up to him. (*That's the secret to the success of the Josh Allen pick. What the analytics didn't account for was that Allen had never had high-level coaching/training on the technique of playing QB: throwing mechanics, footwork, etc. For at least a decade now, just about every QB with a first-round grade has already had that coaching since high school or at least freshman year of college. So the analytics folks all assume (without realizing it) that QBs fundamentally can't improve in things like accuracy, when actually it's just that the vast majority of 1st-round QBs have already improved a lot in that area.) 2. Cole Bishop - Didn't excite me, but appears to be a solid pick. I like that he's above-average athletically (9.88 RAS!), because McDermott and staff have shown tremendous ability to develop guys in the secondary. So the best case scenario is that Bishop becomes an All-Pro. I'll admit, I was kind of hoping we'd be able to find our guy at S in like the 4th round, but realistically I figured we'd be drafting one early. I love the fact that Bishop seems pretty versatile - that should help disguising coverages and what not. Prediction: Starter by end of 2024; possible star by his peak. 3. Dewayne Carter - This is the last pick where I wasn't actively rooting for WR to be the pick. (I still would've been happy with a WR pick here though.) When Beane talked in his presser about "the team is in transition", this pick came to mind. 3-time captain, chose to stay at Duke despite NIL offers from bigger schools, closely related to multiple former NFL players. This pick best exemplifies some of the overall ethos of the draft: Sustaining & maintaining culture. They went heavily for guys who are going to *like* playing in Buffalo, who are going to be fully bought in to the team and the culture, and who will eventually be captains indoctrinating the next generation into the culture. In terms of on-field, I like-don't-love the pick. 7.67 RAS might mean his upside is fairly limited, but Kyle Williams wasn't the greatest athlete either, so who knows? I noted in the draft day thread that about half of Carter's highlights during the broadcast were rushing from the 1-technique. Seems like he'll start off as a 3tech on regular downs and a 1tech on passing downs. I wouldn't be suprised if he bulks up a bit (10-20 lbs) and winds up playing 50/50 or more at 1tech. Prediction: Rotational player from Day 1; good enough to earn a 2nd contract from the Bills. 4. Ray Davis - Was quite disappointed at first, just based on positional value. So from a strategic standpoint, I don't like the pick. With that said, I really like the player now that I've heard of him. I love the 5'8", 211 lbs build - I think it's one of the best body types for RBs. Give me a 5'8" or 5'9" dude who's stout enough to take hits all day. His RAS of 5.41 doesn't inspire confidence, especially at age 24, but to be honest he looks pretty fast on his highlights. I don't really mind the age or miles on him, because we're looking for immediate production. And I love that he comes in with great pass-catching experience. This regime has definitely overcommitted draft capital to RBs, but I trust their judgment when it comes to the actual picks. Motor is a good NFL player, Moss was a beast when he got the opportunity last year, Cook looks great, and I'm confident Davis will be a good player for the Bills. Having said that, it's still gonna sting if Jacob Cowing or Anthony Gould becomes a draft steal. Prediction: Wins the primary backup job in camp; probably leaves after his rookie deal. 5. Sedrick Van Pran-Granger - I was pretty happy with this pick, in spite of it not being a WR. Center is definitely a need with Morse gone, and you can often find good or even great Cs at this point in the draft. Everyone seems to agree that SVPG is a very good prospect, just not super athletic (7.63 RAS) and has short arms. I think training camp will feature a 3-way competition between McGovern, Anderson, and VPG. I'd be suprised if VPG wins that competition as a rookie, but I think he'll get a chance. Maybe not more than the 1-day audition Baylon Spector got at MLB this past year, but still. Prediction: Makes the team as a rookie; starting C in 2025 unless Anderson turns out to be a stud 5. Edufuan Ulofoshio - Not much for me to add beyond what Logic already said. The player himself appears to be a good pick for the late 5th round, and I like the 9.67 RAS. But... how much of a priority is our #6 linebacker? I don't know if we're going to have 4 more injuries at LB (at the same time) ever again, and even if we did, we'd probably try to trade for a guy instead of putting Ulofoshio out there. But with the new kickoff rules, special teams should be at least a little more important next year, so maybe Ulofoshio can make an impact there? Prediction: Makes the team as core special teamer; not sure if he ever gets above that 5. Javon Solomon - Love this pick! Most good pass rushers come from early in the draft. If a guy this late is going to be any good, there has to be something "wrong" with him. In Solomon's case, he's short and he went to a small school. But his 246 lbs isn't really that undersized (Von Miller is listed at 250 lbs), and almost 34" arms help mitigate the height thing. 7.28 RAS isn't amazing, but his height is a pretty big penalty there, and he's quite good in the explosiveness metrics. Prediction: Strip-sack of Mahomes takes us to the Super Bowl! (Why not?) 6. Tylan Grable - This is another one where I like the player, but don't really like the strategic value of the pick. Grable looks very promising, IF we can keep him on the 53 all year. Similar to pass rushers, you don't find big, athletic LTs this late unless there's something wrong with them. In Grable's case, it's newness to the position after converting from QB to TE to LT (with some RT and guard in there as well). It'll take some time for him to be a plus player at the NFL level, but he's got the athleticism (9.85 RAS) to be not just good, but great - if he gets really good at the technique of the position. Prediction: Bills keep him on the 53 and he's usually a healthy scratch; maybe he winds up a starter in 2-3 years 6. Daequan Hardy - After hearing Beane's press conference, it I think this pick should've been announced as kick returner rather than defensive back. It sounded like the path for him to make the team is to win the punt return job, and in that scenario he'll then be a deeeeep depth player at CB. We don't have a ton of return options on the roster, so he's got a chance. Especially if he can return both punts and new-style kickoffs. Prediction: He doesn't make the 53-man roster; winds up on another team for a few years 7. Travis Clayton - See my comments for Tylan Grable, but even more so. There isn't really a path for him to make the 53 man roster, right? So this pick basically comes down to whether a non-contending team is willing to claim him on waivers and train him while keeping him on the active roster. If we can keep him a Buffalo Bills for a few years, Clayton could be an absolute steal! Plus it's very fun to root for a guy who's literally never played a game of gridiron football in his life. Anyway, one thing I found interesting is that he's been listed at OG just about everywhere I've seen. Not ruling it out, but it would seem like at 6'7", you'd want him at OT instead. Not sure the Bills have actually gotten that far. If it was me, I think I'd try to run him through drills at every position - both to help him understand what each position does and means, and to see how naturally stuff comes to Clayton and how well he picks it up. Mike Tomlin apparently had a plan for Clayton to play on the D-line while also cross-training at OT. I wouldn't rule out DE, OT, OG, or even TE until I'd seen him in practice. Prediction: Oh, like I know. This is a prospect where truly anything is possible. But I'll at least go on record saying that he won't make the 53. Overall - Pick by pick, I like or can talk myself into every one. But I do have some complaints on a macro level. First, like many others, I didn't think there was enough investment in the WR position. I believe Beane when he says they had other guys higher or felt other needs were greater; I just disagree on our need I guess. I would've tried to make it a priority to get 1 guy from whatever tier Coleman was in, and a 2nd guy from whatever tier Baker and Cowing were in. Second, this regime sometimes seems too confident in their board. Now, they're definitely solid at scouting - look at how many of our late round picks are still in the NFL, even if not on the Bills. But no one is perfect, and they seem very willing to just punt on a pick when it's not a guy they love. If you know that other teams are gonna claim 3-4 of your cuts on waivers, then maybe it's worth spending that 6th or 7th rounder on a position where you don't like the guy, but he's got a shot to make the team just based on numbers. Sometimes you'll just be wrong in a lucky way, and the guy you didn't like will turn out to be a legit player. Similarly, I'm sure our 4th round RB and 5th round LB are good players, but maybe we'd be better off as a team with 2 rolls of the dice at WR there, and instead try to find our backup RB and special-teams LB in the 6th or 7th. I love both project O-linemen we took late, but there's a pretty solid chance that both are cut and claimed on waivers by another team. If that happens, they were wasted picks. With that said, I'm fairly happy overall. I liked both trade downs on Day 1, I don't mind selling the 5th rounder for a 4th next year, and I think the commitment to building a new nucleus makes sense. I also like that we have a full complement of picks next year, plus the Vikings 2nd and Bears 4th, and hopefully another 4th and 5th in comp picks. It feels like this year will be a bit of a dip, as the offense and defense figure out what works and what doesn't. I think we're good enough to win the division, but I doubt we're still dead-even with the Chiefs (except for late-game playoff execution) in terms of being the class of the league. And I can live with that. Make the playoffs, have a puncher's chance against anyone, see what happens. Then try to get an impact player in 2025 free agency, and swing for the fences in the 2025 draft.

Good post! It seems like you’re convinced we’ll sign a vet after June 1st. I tend to agree, but I have more doubt. After listening to Beane’s press conference, specifically when he was asked about June 1 money, he went into a lot of specifics. The overall gist was that we have less $$$ than it looks (so don’t get your hopes up). My personal takeaways: -Beane definitely wants to sign more Floyd-types, but there’s only so much he can do, and even less that he’s willing to do -He might be worried that we’ll only have the budget for 1 guy. I doubt he’s willing to go heavy into void years for multiple guys -That 1 guy might wind up a pass rusher I still think it’s most likely that they make a real effort to sign Beckham, and maybe sign a Chark/Gallup/Thomas if they don’t get Beckham. But it wouldn’t shock me if they decide that those last 3 aren’t a significant upgrade over the guys they already have.

No.

I’m not sure we disagree about anything at this point, except just what we consider the word “need” to mean. I won’t be surprised (or mind) if the Bills draft a LB today, and they’ll get at least 1-2 in UDFA as well. And agreed, they do need to add some for camp.

We’ve got at least 5 on the roster currently. We usually carry 5 actual LBs and a LBINO who’s there for special teams.

Honest question: how many do you think we need? We had 4 LBs hurt at the same time last year. Can any NFL team lose their top 4 at one position group and still field a good group?

Starters: Bernard, Milano. One was awesome last year, the other is an All-Pro Reserves: -Williams. I expect him to be much better mentally in year 2. Looked very promising physically as a rookie -Spector. Looked pretty good in spot starting duty when forced in. Should still be improving in year 3 -That vet we signed -Someone I’m forgetting? Your stance isn’t at all self-evident to me, guy.

How do you figure LB is a need?