BillsVet

It helps to play Denver, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles 6x/year with an elite QB when Justin Herbert is the best of the other 3. They also get to play Buffalo at some point in the playoffs and have their number. Ironically, their 2 seasons in the past 5 they didn't win the SB was against a top-end offense in Tampa Bay and against a Bengals team in the AFC CG that featured a healthy Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. You keep your head above water on defense and feature an elite offense against KC. Hard to win otherwise in the playoffs when all the marbles are there for the taking. They're coached well and resourced better.

Buffalo needs the ability to out-score opponents in the playoffs and even with Josh, they haven't been and still aren't capable of that. You just aren't going to stop elite offensive teams even when relatively healthy in the post-season. Drafting more defense is spinning your wheels. At some point, expecting to get to the playoffs with a high-rotationally driven defense, especially DL, is not realistic. You'd be lucky to keep healthy McD's 8+ man DL after 17 or more games. You're lucky if Bernard and Milano who are both undersized and adept in coverage healthy after so many snaps. McBeane can continue being late to the party on offense and trying to thread the needle with a balanced offense and going the same path on defense. It's more likely to fail and we'll all be back to citing injuries or the offense struggling because it's predictable. The vision has to change beginning now.

You forgot the /sarcasm at the end of your post.

The issue with a WR/TE group consisting of short to intermediate options is that it is limited and predictable. With no speed guy, teams can play up because the deep threat isn't on the roster. Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid (how they used him last year) and whatever else do not offer this kind of capability. Perhaps they unleash Kincaid more, though it remains to be seen. Or, their WR group reflects how the coaches want to run the offense in which case it will fail against better defenses, i.e. in the playoffs if they get there. Keeping the passing game closer to the LOS, reducing risk, and trying to assemble 8+ play drives is not aligned with successful modern offenses featuring a talented QB. For now, Samuel is an average Z and Shakir might be a good slot option. The rest are JAGs who'll be, at best, WR4/5 options.

Yeah, he's a human being and it seems people want to canonize him while still alive. Wouldn't be the first athlete who was lauded publicly that had a lot of issues going on behind the scenes. Walter Payton comes to mind. It's all still entertainment. Much more important things going on, but nice to have a QB after all those years of not. I hope he gets his sh** together and the team puts better players on the field around him. We'll see.

It would be the biggest gut punch for Bills fans to have the franchise QB demand a trade after the 2025 season because the QB didn't perceive the HC/GM provided the resources to win in 2024 and 2025. Because by early 2026 the PSL's are sold, ticket prices raised, and the new stadium set to opening for the 2026 season. I can't see, if Terry was faced with a Josh or McD decision, the HC not being sent packing. There's too much financially riding on Josh and McD ain't that great a coach. You hope it never comes to that, particularly because McBeane know who is carrying them today and into the future.

That's not the point really, nor anything I'm doubting. McBeane have proven time and again they'll use draft picks to move up, as they did with Kincaid and Elam in RD1 these last 2 years. The issue is, people like to claim the draft is a total crap-shoot and that's surface-level analysis. You can be a decent drafting team without prioritizing the riskier positions to draft and look OK or better. You can get burned drafting the higher positions and be viewed not so good. Drafting well is finding talent primarily at the harder to find positions because it more than likely shows up in W-L column. I don't think the question to ask is whether the draft is a crap-shoot, which in this discussion is mostly RD1-2 picks. It's more about are teams bold enough there to go after the premium positions to find elite talent. When they do, they're more likely to win if they have decent personnel people.

Drafting is more questionable when it involves players who are isolated on the field. That is, the QBs, WR's, LT's, DE's, and perhaps in man CB's. They are always in demand, frequently drafted high, and their translation from college to the pros is often more in doubt. The IOL, DT, LB, S, RB's, and perhaps TE's are a different matter, primarily because they typically aren't drafted high. When they are, something is special about them to necessitate a RD1 pick which, I believe, makes them less of a risk. The premium positions listed above get drafted high sometimes without that characteristic...but because they play a high-value position. Nothing is absolute and no team is head and shoulders above the others though. I recall @BADOLBILZ noting how the Bills during the drought weren't terrible drafting, but they used high picks on lesser positional value, had hits and few busts, but the end result was still those 4-7 win teams. And during those years, their success at QB, WR, LT, DE was minimal. And when they took a CB high who excelled, typically those guys lasted one contract and left in UFA like Clements and Gilmore. Still have to take shots, as McBeane proved with Josh, at QB.

I've always liked the draft for how it shows what a team is really thinking long-term. In UFA, they're filling more immediate needs, but the draft is a more long-term personnel decision process. And we spend most of the lead up projecting what will happen. Draft weekend confirms or denies those thoughts. At the end of last season, I think McD finally got what we wanted on offense: a more run-heavy team that threw more short to intermediate. Josh's yards per attempt went down, even though he was throwing it as frequently under Dorsey compared to Brady (35 to 33 attempts per game). Upside is Josh reduced his INT's, but I'm still not a fan of taking the ball out of Josh's hands or running him like Brady did. Wouldn't be surprised to see them go in another direction and justify it by noting the depth of this WR class. And then point to what's in-house already, but we will find out soon enough.

Josh 2019 wasn't Josh 2020-present, but the game that stands out which goes against this idea was against Baltimore late in 2019. Buffalo's WR depth was Brown, miscast as a WR1 and Beasley as their slot guy. Late in the 4th quarter on a 4th and 8, Brown was matched up 1:1 versus Marcus Peters and couldn't make the catch. Bills lost 24-17. Similar issues surfaced against Houston in the WC game a few weeks later. Bills' offense lacked the receivers to score when they needed. This prompted the trade for Diggs, but since then they've expended little in UFA or higher draft picks. In fact, Buffalo hasn't drafted a receiver worth re-signing among all the home-grown guys they've retained. That this could happen in the passing era is an indication something's amiss with how they value the position. The more if's and hopefully's you've got heading into the season, the less likely things will work out.

The run-pass ratio from Dorsey to Brady was much different because Buffalo just started running the ball more under Brady. This worked in the regular season, but only to a point. Didn't stop Brady from relying too much on Josh gaining yards on the ground like his predecessors resorted to by the end of the season and into the playoffs. If the idea is to take the ball out of Josh's hands more running it with the backs and/or have him run, this offense is limited. It's limited when you run out receivers who are short to intermediate types, can't track it downfield, and historically 10-12 ypc options. Defenses cheat. And in the current NFL, expecting to maintain 10+ play drives consistently is not a recipe for success. The difference in WR talent shows up more in the playoffs when scoring gets harder because you can't be that personnel-limited even with Josh.

Buffalo hasn't traded a primary starter this near the draft since Jason Peters went to Philadelphia in 2009. It wasn't surprising they didn't subsequently adjust their board given the crew in charge back then. This time, Beane alluded to shopping Diggs for a while, which at the least was a decision to come out of their post-season review in late January/early February. And if that's the case, not a stretch to believe their draft board was built knowing that Diggs was going to be moved. Especially since they saw a draft class with strong WR talent. It would say a lot about this regime if they decided that their primary receiving options for Josh next season were Samuels, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox and a RD2-3 rookie. Because as much as Diggs was declining, it wouldn't be that many degrees of separation from what Buffalo did at OT after trading Peters: relying on rookies/2nd year players and lesser talented options to make up for that deal. Their vision for this team has crystalized in the last couple seasons. And now, most people are seeing that what McD wants to do on offense is to limit Josh and focus on a by-committee offensive approach with decent skilled talent, but not elite. That's not going to work in the AFC.

Don't really care what the Packers did with their WR group...they've accomplished little in the playoffs even with Rodgers going back years. They are in no way a blueprint for how to build an offense and even after investing more at WR, it was too little too late. If there's a similarity to Buffalo, it's that they didn't support their franchise QB with what it takes to build a SB caliber offense. This sort of evaluation above values their quantity too highly as opposed to quality. This is only realized when the season starts and guys like Shakir and Samuel are elevated to more prominent roles they cannot equal previous production. It's like Davis a few years ago going from being the WR3 and people just assuming he'd produce as a WR2. He never did. And then there's the assumption that younger players will improve. Davis never really did nor has Knox. I like Kincaid, but it's no guarantee that a 2nd year player breaks out. You don't pin your hopes on young players who are unproven, while increasing their role. It's why one of the issues moving Diggs is that they didn't have a plan aside from drafting someone. Let's assume they get into position to take one of the top WR's. Josh's top targets next year will include that rookie, Samuel (who is a career 10.7 ypc guy), 2nd year man Kincaid, Shakir who is a tweener type WR, and PS caliber types. To me, even with the trade, their planning to support Josh is highly questionable.

Only difference is McD has a QB where those Levy/Jauron teams never figured that part out. Of course, it was a different era and this team is better resourced financially, but the HC who runs the show is as much defensive focused as Jauron ever was. Some are definitively concluding that with this trade Buffalo just has to go WR in RD1. I'm not in that boat because they used their top pick last year on a flex TE, and 5 of 7 RD1 picks on defense before that. I very much could see McD getting his way again and grabbing another DB. And like his predecessor DJ, it's what he knows and feels comfortable with. What he doesn't understand nor wants to is how to build a competent NFL offense around a franchise QB, who others have noted, has his flaws.

Doesn't help Beane that his HC is wound tighter than a 1920s baseball and never wrong.

It's more of a process. Still a little soon after the Baltimore tragedy. Diggs is a twit for sure, but it's clear McD can't handle personalities that aren't in lock-step with him. Most NFL coaches realize they have to and do grudgingly. I would not be surprised to see them be more ball control, defensive-oriented. I have a hard time seeing McClappy, even if he does get a young receiver or 2, playing them. And less so featuring them.

This is a defeatist mentality based on their late position in RD1 and something I've seen over the years. It's like Whaley moaning about being in QB purgatory, yet some years later a new regime at OBD emphasized going to get their guy...and did it. I get that it's a cultural thing though...most people are scared to death of any risk now. Why not apply that outlook to the football team? Your assertion that a rotational DT who "is involved in every single play" is surface-level analysis. He's on the field perhaps 30-40 snaps and comes into contact with the opponent OL. Great. But reducing a WR to only impact 4-6 plays because they were targeted or made a catch is delusional. A guy who has speed affects the game by creating opportunities for other receivers. The work an opposing DC has to do accounting for that guy behind the scenes is something you completely miss. And lost in all this debate is that people continue viewing the draft as more for need than it really is. If you're a good team and using the draft that way, you won't be a good team for long. Another DT for a safe McDefense isn't going to do much long-term, even if he's a good starter.

I don't think Beane is as concerned about the draft pick short from the league. It's the classic, "look over there" move. And I get it because re-framing the narrative that the NFL is a problem takes focus from him at a media event. One he likely anticipated receiving questions about how they'll get beyond the divisional round game for the first time since 2020.

We talkin' bout safeties.

Setting the bar high I see.

People in here getting excited about safeties.

Late-career Cam, the now-retired Bridgewater, and Sam Howell versus Josh Allen. Think Shakir's QB is the same as the aforementioned 3 QB's Samuel's played with. As in, their production being similar is the comparison? If you do, then it's time to head back to the Sabres Board.

Maybe the guy throwing them the ball helped one guy's production versus having inhibited the other.

FIFY They got Mitchell Trubisky, Mack Hollins and Nick Morrow...what more do people want?

Talking about the center position. Next week it'll be back to another top safety or DT. Maybe even a RB. These off-seasons get longer every year and I didn't think that was possible about 10 years ago.