2020 Our Year For Sure

At this point I'm pretty neutral in the McGahee debate. He hasn't yet shown himself to be a consistent playmaker, yet some games he looks like he's back at the 'U. It isn't only the against the Jets, he had two touchdown runs in the Jaguars game that not too many backs would've had, including a 40+ yarder. But as I said, consistency has been a problem. I'm on the fence at this point, but am admittedly curious to see what he'd do behind a better interior offensive line. What I don't understand is why it isn't possible that when the O-line was reshuffled, their pass protection improved AND their run blocking suffered at the same time. Why can't those two performances be mutually exclusive? Why isn't it possible that an offensive line that included a right side with 1 year of NFL experience between 2 players combined couldn't have been better at dropping back and defending against an oncoming rusher than they were at aggressively attacking defenses and moving defenders off the line of scrimmage to open up holes? I'm not apologizing for Willis, but this is actually what I remember observing during the final stretch of the season.

I still haven't been given anything to help me understand where everyone is coming from with the character issues. So far I've got "he hangs out with Snoop Dogg" (don't see how that matters) and "he just screams off the field problems" ( a statement which just screams "please support me with something"). The one decent point made was from Dankenstein who said he's seen plenty of USC games and that Jarrett rarely passes up a chance to taunt and showboat. I'll point out that I've never seen Chad Johnson or Steve Smith pass up an opportunity to do the same, and I don't see them as players who have character issues or cause problems in the locker room. Smith's team was in the Super Bowl not too long ago and he represents our own Lee Evans at the height of his potential. Johnson certainly isn't the problem on his team, and if his teammates could stay out of prison and they could put together a decent defense and a healthy Carson Palmer in the same season, they'd be a playoff team. From later posts I gathered that Dankenstein just gets a bad vibe from the guy, and that's cool. But what brought about the extreme that the above posts (only one of which is his) went to?

Pat Williams is a Viking now, remember?

Is it the idea of taking a reciever in the 1st round that you all have a problem with, or is it Dwayne Jarrett personally? I don't follow college football all that closely, so I don't know too much about Jarrett other than the tremendous on-field ability and potential I've gathered from seeing him play a couple of times and from what I've read. Below is a post from another thread in which I explained, in my humble opinion, why I don't think Jarrett is such a bad option. If there's character issues, I wouldn't know about them, and maybe someone could give me the skinny on that. My humble opinions:

I'm all for improvement in the trenches, but I'm not sure how we'd apply that to the 12th overall pick. We all know we're set with Jason Peters, and I think most agree that Terrance Pennington has earned a starting role for next season. I think the board is about 50-50 on Fowler, but even if you don't like him, are you going to draft a center 12th overall? Or even a guard, undoubtedly our weakest O-line postion? I don't think thats the best way to help the team. As for the defensive line, many look at the fact that our run defense was quite weak last year, and so want to draft a defensive tackle, and the leading candidate seems to be Okoye. I don't like this because Okoye would in all likelihood be replacing Tim Anderson in our DT rotation, leaving Kyle Williams as our only nose tackle on the roster! This is why I'd rather see us address DT through free agency with a solid nose tackle, namely Ian Scott of Chicago, who has experience playing for Dick Jauron in the cover 2. This would allow John McCargo to remain in the pass rushing DT position as he returns from injury. With he and Kyle Williams having a year of experience in both this league and this system under their belts, I'd expect to see noticeable improvement out of the two of them. Particularly with Williams bulking up a bit, giving him a better chance at holding the line of scrimmage consistently. Add cover 2 vets Larry Tripplett and Ian Scott into the rotation at the under tackle and nose tackle positions respectively and I think we'd see considerable improvement in the run defense. Therefore, the only line position left on either side of the ball to consider in round 1 is DE, and this is the spot I'm most hoping the Bills address with the 12th pick, mainly because of the emphasis the cover 2 puts on generating a pass rush from the front 4. I'd let Chris Kelsay walk, and draft Gaines Adams if he's on the board. If not, I'd take Jamaal Anderson, who should be there. But what if, for any number of reasons, they don't want to go DE with that 12th pick? Why not Dwayne Jarrett, or a linebacker? Picking Dwayne Jarrett in the 1st isn't showing a lack of commitment to the lines, its showing a recognition that the draft is more than one round and he might be the player on the board who can help our team the most. Because for our offense to take the next step forward, we must give Losman a 2nd consistent target in the passing game. I'd still rather have a DE, but I've got no problem with Dwayne Jarrett or a linebacker. I wouldn't rule out a trade-down and a guard picked near the end of the 1st round, but whenever you talk about trading down, you have to remember it takes two to tango.

This is my fault in being too cavalier in my estimation of where the improvement in pass protection began to manifest. It took me going back and looking at the numbers to realize that mistake. It seems there were 2 weeks after the bye week (GB, @ IND) in which the pass protection was still inadequate. Maybe this is because the play-calling was still utlra-conservative (this would make sense because one could argue the pass protection and play-calling both changed the same week, beginning @ HOU), or maybe its because the line needed those 2 weeks to gel and adjust after the changes to the lineup the coaching staff made during the bye week. In any case, here are the adjusted numbers with the line being drawn after those 2 weeks: first 9 games 30 sacks....3.3/game 224 attempts.....1 sack every 7.5 attempts averages to 53 sacks in 16 games last 7 games 17 sacks....2.4/game 205 attempts.....1 sack every 12 attempts averages to 39 sacks in 16 games With my error eradicated, the point I'm trying to make comes through. In any case, statistics are a pretty rough way to measure something like pass protection, mostly because by using sacks alone you completely ignore how many passes were thrown under diress, whether the quarterback had a pocket to step into, coverage sacks, etc. In my opinion, the best way to see our line's improvement is the old fashioned eye ball test. Down the final stretch of the season, I remember again and again consciously noticing that JP was able to step back and get comfortable, and then step up and deliver a pass...on a pretty consistent basis. At least it was pretty close to as consistent as you can expect. I'm confident that if someone were to go back and watch those last 7 games looking for this, they would see my point clearer than I could ever show it with statistics. This is one reason why I'd like to see this team grab a big receiver at some point in the draft, but I'll save that for another post.

Thanks alot Astro, that last post is actually the one I'll have in front of me on the coffee table. I really hope Marv decides to grab a big reciever at some point, but I'm still thinking DE in the 1st.

This is the post I print out and put on the coffee table in front of the TV. Now all I need is links to scouting reports.

Those are my thoughts exactly, and I'm hoping for either Gaines Adams or Jamaal Anderson in the 1st round. I'd also think about a WR in the 2nd. Of course this doesn't address OG, but I'm holding out hope that we'll sign one of the high profile free agents.

My guess and hope is Ian Scott at DT (who was once coached by Dick Jauron), allowing us to select a DE, WR or MLB with the 12th pick in the draft. Scott would be a solid replacement for Tim Anderson, and should help our run defense. His acquisition would also allow John McCargo to stay at the pass rushing DT position.

When it supports your argument, you're willing to look at just the last 6 games, but there's no way you can look at the this team post-bye week and say we couldn't consistently protect the quarterback. Pass protection in the NFL just doesn't get much better than Losman had it from the bye week through week 16. Run blocking is another story, of course, and we're in agreement that the Guard position should be improved, but I find the idea that our pass protection needs improvement over the end of last season to be false.

Everyone say hello to broad, sweeping generalizations.

I don't expect the Bills to sign Clements because he's worth more to other teams than he is to the Bills, a cover 2 team. Something would seem wrong if a cover 2 team were willing to employ the league's highest paid cornerback.

Do you think there's any chance Meachem, WR Tennessee will be available for our pick in the 2nd round?

One point I haven't seen addressed is the fact that once Tim Anderson is let loose, the defensive tackle brought in must be able to play on the nose. We need two NTs and two UTs in the rotation. I wouldn't want to see the result of the undersized Tripplett being put on the nose, and I'd like to let McCargo continue to develop at the pass rushing tackle position. So when you talk about drafting a defensive tackle, you have to consider that in all likelihood it would have to be a nose tackle. As 1st rounders go, obviously Okoye can't play on the nose, so if you're going to keep McCargo and Tripplett, Okoye is a stretch. Branch could probably play the NT spot, so if he falls to us I have no problem taking him. Pitcock, I don't know much about, and I don't really care as taking him at 12 seems like a stretch to me based off what I've read. So if Branch isn't there when we go on the clock, I believe we should look elsewhere, particularly DE. In the cover 2 you must generate a pass rush from your defensive line, and the brutally inconsistent pressure from the Denney/Kelsay combo on the left side isn't enough for me. I'd want to let Kelsay walk in free agency, and grab either Jamaal Anderson or Gaines Adams at 12. If they don't want to go that route, I'd think about Patrick Willis, but I'd also have no problems turning my sights to Dwayne Jarrett. We have a chance to have a great offense here with Losman, Evans, and an offensive line that showed itself to be on the rise in the 2nd half of '06. All thats really missing is a stud at Guard (free agency hopefully) and a 2nd playmaker in the passing game. I think Dwayne Jarrett can help this offense tremendously in taking the next step forward. As for DT, I think McCargo and Kyle Williams both having another year both in the NFL and in the cover 2, and with Williams getting a healthy dose of offseason conditioning, we should see improvement from that pair. I'd look to solidify the rotation with a free agent nosetackle such as Ian Scott, or a 3rd-5th round draft pick. But I think we're better off with a DE, WR, or even a LB in the 1st round.

I'm certain I'm in the minority here, but I'd rather see us take a DE at 12 than a DT. In the cover 2, its imperative that you generate a pass rush with your front 4. I don't care if Kelsay and Denney combined for a decent sack total, the pressure just wasn't there from that side. The vast majority of the time, if Schobel couldn't get through, the opposing quarterback had a day and a half to sit back there and find an open guy, and thats unaccpetable. It isn't fair to Schobel to put that on him and it won't be enough for this defense to be top-notch. With these things in mind, I say we let Kelsay walk in free agency, because he and Denney are strikingly similar players. Then we use the 12th overall draft pick on one of the highly-rated DEs. We sit tight at DT with McCargo coming back from injury, Williams getting into the strength and conditioning program (which most of us agree can help him), Triplett returning, and I'd advocate adding a free agent nose tackle (Ian Scott?) to replace Tim Anderson. With McCargo and Williams having a year's experience both in the NFL and in the cover 2, we should see some improvement. That's not to mention a solid nose tackle in Ian Scott replacing Tim Anderson, who just can't cut it. I'll have Jamaal Anderson, please and thank you.

Do you think there's a chance he falls to 32nd?

The best thing about this post is the solid evidence you back it up with. You make a great case, I've been turned.

Lets not go overboard here. Remember that we are a cover 2 team, and we are talking about a cornerback here, the least important position in our scheme. I'm not going to "seriously wonder about this franchise" because they don't want to employ the league's highest paid cornerback in a system that doesn't require him to the extent that others do. I too agree with the principle of re-signing our own draft picks, but not to the point where I'd invest this much money in Nate Clements. Let him walk, re-sign The Beast, and let he, McGee and Youboty handle our top 3 cornerback spots. Then use a second-day draft pick on a corner to bring some depth and potential to the table. In my mind, that would suffice at corner, and we could spend that big money on a Lance Briggs, Daniel Graham or an Eric Steinbach.

Agreed. I'm fairly certain he's fourth on the depth chart at this point. Without some kind of unexpectedly outstanding preseason, I don't see him making next year's roster.

So he'll be somewhere between a mediocre 3rd down back and one of the most reliable every-down backs in recent memory. Not exactly narrowing it down.

How exactly does a division qualify as "physcially tough"?

Meh, at least you realize Fletcher-Baker doesn't make tackles behind the line of scrimmage because he's performing the task our coaches assign him in our version of the cover 2. You're okay in my book.

Right up until he starts to enter his physical prime, at which point he leaves for greener pastures in free agency. If the scenario plays out as posted, I'd hope we could find a way to move up a spot or two and grab Branch, and if not, select either Dwayne Jarrett or a linebacker at #12. I wouldn't rule out a trade-down, either.

People are STILL putting Michael Vick into these kinds of discussions?