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Everything posted by 2020 Our Year For Sure
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The hypothesis is that true impact players at the cornerback position are much harder to find than people realize, and the difference most corners make for a defense is way overrated around here. I started by listing the names of all highly-thought-of corners I could who have switched teams somewhat recently (the list came off the top of my head, I'm sure I forgot at least a couple obvious ones). Then I simply looked at their old teams' pass defense ranking (total yardage) the last year they had him and then after they lost him, and his new team's ranking before and after they acquired him. You'll find no claims this is the be-all, end-all of player evaluation. Rather, this study merely skims the surface. But still, I was surprised by some of the numbers, and believe them worthy of discussion. Players are randomly listed in the order I thought of them. Champ Bailey 2003: Denver was 5th before getting Bailey, Washington was 14th in their final season with Bailey. 2004: Denver is 6th when they get Bailey, Washington improves to 7th when they lose him. CONCLUSION: The first player considered is one of the most interesting. The player who is the consensus #1 shutdown corner leaguewide changing addresses results in an improvement for the team that loses him, and a slight drop for the team that gets him. Is it not supposed to be the other way around? Charles Woodson 2004: Raiders are 30th in Woodson's final healthy season with the team. 2005: Woodson plays in only 6 games in his final season as a Raider, and they rank 18th. Green Bay has the #1 rated pass defense before getting him. 2006: Without Woodson, the Raiders are now #1. Green Bay falls from 1 to 17. CONCLUSION: Completely backwards from what a strong CB advocate might expect. The more Woodson plays, the worse off the Raiders are, to the point that they're #30 when he's healthy and #1 when he's gone! Green Bay's #1 pass defense falls to #17 with his so-called "addition." Nate Clements 2006: Our Bills are 7th in Nate's final season here. San Fran is 26th before signing him. 2007: Buffalo freefalls to 29th with the loss of Clements. '9ers inch up to 22nd. CONCLUSION: We certainly felt the loss of Clements in the numbers, there's no denying that. Still, this tip-of-the-iceberg study finds no evidence that this brand name cornerback made the type of impact on his new team that they thought they were paying for. Huge loss for his old team, little gain for his new team...may not have been worth what it took for the '9ers to get him. But it sure would be great to see him in a Bills uni again. Dre' Bly 2006: Denver is 21st before getting Bly. Detroit is 25th in his final season with the team. 2007: Denver goes up to 7 with Bly. Detroit drops to 31 without him. CONCLUSION: The corners are now on base and batting .250. Huge difference for Denver when they got him, and Detroit landed in one of the few spots worse than their last ranking with him. The numbers suggest he's worth the investment. Antoine Winfield 2003: Bills are #2 in his final year with (unarguably) the greatest sports franchise on the planet. Vikings are #26 before the big signing. 2004: Bills stay strong at #3 after the loss. Vikings drop to #29. CONCLUSION: Another CB whose team's ranking goes down in his first season. Still, the small changes can likely be chalked up to standard deviation. Ty Law 2003: In his final healthy season with the Patriots, the club has the #1 pass defense.* 2004: Law plays just 7 games, and New England is #17*. Before getting Law, the Jets are #14. 2005: After losing Law, NE plummets to #30*. After getting Law, the Jets shoot up to #2. Before getting Law, the Chiefs are #31. 2006: With Law, the Chiefs rise to #18. With his loss, the Jets are back down at #14. CONCLUSION: Ty Law dominates, no questions asked. The Pats* were better off the more he played, to the point that they were #1* when he was fully healthy and #30* after he was gone. The Jets were average to start, then #2 when they got him, then average when he left. Then he took KC from 30 to 14. Chalk another one up for the CBs! Samari Rolle 2004: Baltimore is #10 before getting Rolle. Rolle plays in 11 games for Tennessee, who are #26. 2005: Baltimore inches up to #8 with Rolle. Tennessee improves to #17 without him. CONCLUSION: Small improvement on his new team. Another corner whose old team has a higher ranking without him than they did in his last season there. Not much impact to be found from these numbers. Shawn Springs 2003: Washington is #14 before getting Springs. Seattle is #24 in his final season with the team. 2004: Washington goes up to #7 with Springs. Seattle is #23 without him. CONCLUSION: Solid improvement for the 'Skins with his acquisition. No change for Seattle with his loss. May have been a good pickup for Washington. * = Team is known to have cheated. Ranking may not have been obtained legitimately. -Three out of the 9 (or 33.3%) teams gaining a cornerback (Ty Law is counted twice) actually had a worse pass defense ranking than they had before getting their corner. Should that number really be as high as one-third? -That same mark (33.3%) represents CBs who were were able to raise their new team's ranking 10 or more spots higher than it was the previous year. If corners have the direct impact on pass D we've been lead to believe, why can't we expect that mark to be much higher? -44.4% (4-of-9) teams losing a corner actually improved their pass defense. Thoughts?
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Who does TBD want to see in Round 1?
2020 Our Year For Sure replied to deep2evans's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I went with Harvey, Rivers, Hardy, Thomas, Albert and Ellis. There are plenty more I wouldn't complain with, like Mayo for instance. If he's not a cornerback, I can probably come around to him. -
There's really no room for a pass rushing linebacker in the Tampa 2, so I can't imagine a scenario where the Bills would be looking at one. Maybe to convert him to End. I don't know much about Rivers, but I know this about Crowell: he's a rock solid starter in this league, nothing less, nothing more. He's never going to be a playmaker. We could certainly use a playmaker among the LBs, and if Rivers is that guy, I can't bash the pick. Can't believe I'm agreeing with obi and K-9, I must be losing it...
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1. Losman has little reason to sign a new contract with any team. The free agent market is where the money is, even for mediocre players. 2. It makes little sense for any team to trade significant resources for the services of a backup quarterback for one season. Conclusion: Losman's value is probably about a 6th or 7th rounder.
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Top of the Draft Positional Budgeting Trends
2020 Our Year For Sure replied to AKC's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The guy's career consisted of 2 catches for 4 yards and 0 touchdowns. My condolences to him, but to say he was coming onto anything other than the free agent pool before his injury is a stretch. -
If we take a CB at #11
2020 Our Year For Sure replied to ans4e64's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
It seems foolish to me to draft a cornerback when you have one of the NFL's worst pass rushes. No secondary can make up for a lackluster pass rush. On the other hand, many a defensive line have been known to cover for less than ideal secondary personnel. -
Top of the Draft Positional Budgeting Trends
2020 Our Year For Sure replied to AKC's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Quick question...why are DE and DT grouped into DL? Certainly teams would draft defensive line as a whole more frequently than they would recievers. DE and DT are two seperate positions, just as WR and TE are two seperate positions, just as QB and RB are two seperate positions. Its a good thing my prior experience tells me that AKC would never set parameters based on some kind of bias. -
I can accept 9-7 and no playoffs ...
2020 Our Year For Sure replied to SoCal Pat's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Are you counting both San Francisco and New England*? It should probably be either one or the other. -
Draft Poll: Taking a CB in the first round
2020 Our Year For Sure replied to OCinBuffalo's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I don't see a young corner replacing McGee or Greer anytime soon, and even if he did, the improvement would be modest at best. We go three deep at corner plus a youngster with upside, with 2 of those 4 having good size. I fail to see what we'll accomplish by drafting a corner at #11. I'd love to get a receiver, but in this draft we won't get value at receiver unless we wait for the 2nd round, or trade back up into the 1st. I don't know where we'll go, our options are open, but I'm hoping it isn't corner...as long as our corners are solid, which they are and more, we'll be sitting pretty if we can get the pass rush figured out. -
History Suggests We Again Move Back Into Rd #1
2020 Our Year For Sure replied to Mr. T's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I'd love to know where the Myth of the Highly-Priced Ends came from... -
There seems to be a few here on board with the idea of drafting 2 recievers early, and I can't understand it. If we just get one reciever in rounds 1 or 2, then we'll have Roscoe and Josh Reed in non-starting roles...thats a pretty deep group of recievers. Really can't see what drafting a new #5 reciever is going to do for this team. Seems like a waste of a draft pick.
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Why are we high on Ko Simpson?
2020 Our Year For Sure replied to 2020 Our Year For Sure's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I would say the difference was neither Simpson nor Clements. It was the pass rush, in my opinion. -
Is it too much to ask for somebody whose willing to throw the ball on 1st down? PLEASE, Turk...even if you're still telegraphing plays, not using rollouts, not throwing to the running backs, not spreading the offense...at least be willing to throw on 1st down from time to time.
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impressive mock draft
2020 Our Year For Sure replied to DreamOnDan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
How ironic. -
Deepest D in the league?
2020 Our Year For Sure replied to Tortured Soul's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Yes, they were indeed the first above average defense to do those things. And go figure! They didn't have to carry 28 former first round defensive tackles to do it... -
A truly honest question. I need to be reminded why 80% of the board is so high on this guy. Not saying that its wrong, just that I find it difficult to evaluate the secondary and would love to have it spelled out for me.