2020 Our Year For Sure

Schefter reported the same thing on NFLN.

First off: how many "coverage sacks" do you really think one secondary is capable of forcing over the course of a season? Four? Five? Secondly, who do you think plays a role in more turnovers over the course of a season: your Pro Bowl defensive end or your Pro Bowl cornerback? No position on the football field is capable of forcing more turnovers than an impact defensive end. Strongly agree with your first sentence, strongly disagree with your second sentence. Your linemen are the ones making the opposing quarterback aware that he can't sit back there all day to pick your coverage apart. Without impact players along your defensive front, your secondary (no matter how talented) will be hung out to dry. The reverse is not necessarily true: as long as you have average play from your cornerbacks, a top-notch pass rush can carry a strong pass defense (and force turnovers) on its own. It doesn't require premier performance from the corners (particularly in a system that puts a bit more emphasis on the safeties). If our pass rush is as anemic as it was last season, our CBs could be Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly, and we could still have pass defense issues. Just ask the Broncos, who last season were tied for 23rd in interceptions and tied for 24th in yards allowed per pass play. Upgrading the pass rush, specifically the LDE position, is the road to improving the defense.

Right, agreed on all points. It is in his best interest to wait...but there's a price. There's always a price. It may be an abnormally huge number, but there is some contract the Bills could offer Evans that would result in his re-signing by the end of the weekend. Thats what I mean by "either show him the number he asks for, or don't."

Honestly...what does he care? Show him the figure he asks for, and he'll sign. If you deem him unworthy of that number, let him walk. Its that simple.

Good points all around. I agree that this conclusively PROVES absolutely nothing. What I hope it does accomplish is to raise some questions. Namely, why is there hardly any correlation between 1) adding a premier cornerback, and 2) having a significantly improved pass defense? Are there more variables than we can count effecting the results? You bet. Are there more numbers I could've added to better support the argument? Most likely. This isn't an AKC thread, so there won't be any claims of superiority of knowledge or that anything has been undoubtedly proven. The concept isn't perfect. But yet, if I sat down and did a similar study with defensive ends...instead of ends changing teams, I'd use ends that had emerged with 10+ sacks, and look at the pass defense numbers before and after...I'm confident there would be a stronger correlation between 1) getting a new 10+ sack DE, and 2) having a significantly improved pass defense than I found in the numbers 1 and 2 italicized above. Would you agree? Why is that? That seems like a question which anyone who believes CB is a bigger need position than DE should be able to answer.

The Colts run the same defense too. The difference is in the consistent pass rush.

Hell, signing Evans alone may not be possible.

Correct. While it would be nice to have great corners, the merely good corners we have now will work just fine if we have something resembling a pass rush this time around.

I don't think its just you. I've seen some scouting reports note that he should add 15-20 lbs. onto that frame at the next level.

I'd rather stand pat at 11 and take Harvey, and then trade back up like we did for Poz and McCargo, and get our reciever.

Are you sure about that? I could definitely be mistaken, but I seem to remember Berman hinting at the Bills taking McGahee right before the announcement, saying something like, "Just don't rule it out, you never know..."

Absolutely. The Giants pass rush was the result of Sam Madison getting healthy.

I actually originally planned to include marks in both total pass defense and yards allowed per pass play, but the first site I found only sorted by the total, and it was late... Good point though, that would indeed be helpful.

But thats sort of the point. There are quite a few posters here, likely the majority of the board, who believe if the Bills find a way to acquire a premier cornerback, then this team is SET with the pass defense. The brain trusts of the 49ers, Vikings and Packers may disagree on that point. Its hard for some to think that linemen, yes LINEMEN, can have even more to do with pass defense than the guys who cover the recievers directly. If other teams haven't seen the desired results (significantly imrpoved pass defense) from a major addition at the cornerback position, why should we assume we will? I also think we would all agree that if CBs are the kind of difference makers that many here believe, they would have a more direct impact on pass defense than a running back would on total offense. That hardly seems an equal comparison. Defensive End should be #1 on the shortlist. This team was 29th in the league in sacks last year, and has only one (other posters might have said we have none) impact player at the position. In a system that demands consistent pressure from only the front four, not only is the desperate need for a pass rushing left end there, but the seemingly perfect fit for the roll is expected to be on the board. Scouting report after scouting report gives Derrick Harvey credit for outstanding quickness and acceleration off the line. He is a proven commodity as a pass rusher. Furthermore, he played left end nearly his entire college career. This player has the upside to help our pass defense more than I can imagine from any cornerback in the draft. Safety should be #2. Speaking from purely a 'need' standpoint as opposed to the players available, we have only one reliable safety while we have three rock solid cornerbacks. Besides that fact, many might call safety the more important position in the Tampa 2. Defensive tackle should be #3. Let's compare: McGee is solid. Stroud is solid. Greer is solid. McCargo is unproven. Will James is solid. Spencer Johnson/Kyle Williams are also unproven. If you can get an impact player at (arguably) the most important defensive position in today's NFL, and you happen to have only one proven starter for two spots, I don't see how you can pass that up for a cornerback. Speaking in terms of where you can improve the defense immediately, corner should come in at #4. If you're talking long-term, LB should also come in ahead of CB, as this is Crowell's walk year. My view is that 1) there isn't much evidence that gaining a premier corner will significantly improve a team's pass defense, 2) we already have 3 solid cornerbacks anyway, plus a 4th with upside, 2 of which have good size, and 3) we can get an impact player at a more needy position.

Most people were saying 12 was too early for Lynch. Majority of the chatter was Revis/Okoye/Willis related.

The hypothesis is that true impact players at the cornerback position are much harder to find than people realize, and the difference most corners make for a defense is way overrated around here. I started by listing the names of all highly-thought-of corners I could who have switched teams somewhat recently (the list came off the top of my head, I'm sure I forgot at least a couple obvious ones). Then I simply looked at their old teams' pass defense ranking (total yardage) the last year they had him and then after they lost him, and his new team's ranking before and after they acquired him. You'll find no claims this is the be-all, end-all of player evaluation. Rather, this study merely skims the surface. But still, I was surprised by some of the numbers, and believe them worthy of discussion. Players are randomly listed in the order I thought of them. Champ Bailey 2003: Denver was 5th before getting Bailey, Washington was 14th in their final season with Bailey. 2004: Denver is 6th when they get Bailey, Washington improves to 7th when they lose him. CONCLUSION: The first player considered is one of the most interesting. The player who is the consensus #1 shutdown corner leaguewide changing addresses results in an improvement for the team that loses him, and a slight drop for the team that gets him. Is it not supposed to be the other way around? Charles Woodson 2004: Raiders are 30th in Woodson's final healthy season with the team. 2005: Woodson plays in only 6 games in his final season as a Raider, and they rank 18th. Green Bay has the #1 rated pass defense before getting him. 2006: Without Woodson, the Raiders are now #1. Green Bay falls from 1 to 17. CONCLUSION: Completely backwards from what a strong CB advocate might expect. The more Woodson plays, the worse off the Raiders are, to the point that they're #30 when he's healthy and #1 when he's gone! Green Bay's #1 pass defense falls to #17 with his so-called "addition." Nate Clements 2006: Our Bills are 7th in Nate's final season here. San Fran is 26th before signing him. 2007: Buffalo freefalls to 29th with the loss of Clements. '9ers inch up to 22nd. CONCLUSION: We certainly felt the loss of Clements in the numbers, there's no denying that. Still, this tip-of-the-iceberg study finds no evidence that this brand name cornerback made the type of impact on his new team that they thought they were paying for. Huge loss for his old team, little gain for his new team...may not have been worth what it took for the '9ers to get him. But it sure would be great to see him in a Bills uni again. Dre' Bly 2006: Denver is 21st before getting Bly. Detroit is 25th in his final season with the team. 2007: Denver goes up to 7 with Bly. Detroit drops to 31 without him. CONCLUSION: The corners are now on base and batting .250. Huge difference for Denver when they got him, and Detroit landed in one of the few spots worse than their last ranking with him. The numbers suggest he's worth the investment. Antoine Winfield 2003: Bills are #2 in his final year with (unarguably) the greatest sports franchise on the planet. Vikings are #26 before the big signing. 2004: Bills stay strong at #3 after the loss. Vikings drop to #29. CONCLUSION: Another CB whose team's ranking goes down in his first season. Still, the small changes can likely be chalked up to standard deviation. Ty Law 2003: In his final healthy season with the Patriots, the club has the #1 pass defense.* 2004: Law plays just 7 games, and New England is #17*. Before getting Law, the Jets are #14. 2005: After losing Law, NE plummets to #30*. After getting Law, the Jets shoot up to #2. Before getting Law, the Chiefs are #31. 2006: With Law, the Chiefs rise to #18. With his loss, the Jets are back down at #14. CONCLUSION: Ty Law dominates, no questions asked. The Pats* were better off the more he played, to the point that they were #1* when he was fully healthy and #30* after he was gone. The Jets were average to start, then #2 when they got him, then average when he left. Then he took KC from 30 to 14. Chalk another one up for the CBs! Samari Rolle 2004: Baltimore is #10 before getting Rolle. Rolle plays in 11 games for Tennessee, who are #26. 2005: Baltimore inches up to #8 with Rolle. Tennessee improves to #17 without him. CONCLUSION: Small improvement on his new team. Another corner whose old team has a higher ranking without him than they did in his last season there. Not much impact to be found from these numbers. Shawn Springs 2003: Washington is #14 before getting Springs. Seattle is #24 in his final season with the team. 2004: Washington goes up to #7 with Springs. Seattle is #23 without him. CONCLUSION: Solid improvement for the 'Skins with his acquisition. No change for Seattle with his loss. May have been a good pickup for Washington. * = Team is known to have cheated. Ranking may not have been obtained legitimately. -Three out of the 9 (or 33.3%) teams gaining a cornerback (Ty Law is counted twice) actually had a worse pass defense ranking than they had before getting their corner. Should that number really be as high as one-third? -That same mark (33.3%) represents CBs who were were able to raise their new team's ranking 10 or more spots higher than it was the previous year. If corners have the direct impact on pass D we've been lead to believe, why can't we expect that mark to be much higher? -44.4% (4-of-9) teams losing a corner actually improved their pass defense. Thoughts?

I went with Harvey, Rivers, Hardy, Thomas, Albert and Ellis. There are plenty more I wouldn't complain with, like Mayo for instance. If he's not a cornerback, I can probably come around to him.

There's really no room for a pass rushing linebacker in the Tampa 2, so I can't imagine a scenario where the Bills would be looking at one. Maybe to convert him to End. I don't know much about Rivers, but I know this about Crowell: he's a rock solid starter in this league, nothing less, nothing more. He's never going to be a playmaker. We could certainly use a playmaker among the LBs, and if Rivers is that guy, I can't bash the pick. Can't believe I'm agreeing with obi and K-9, I must be losing it...

Atlanta?

1. Losman has little reason to sign a new contract with any team. The free agent market is where the money is, even for mediocre players. 2. It makes little sense for any team to trade significant resources for the services of a backup quarterback for one season. Conclusion: Losman's value is probably about a 6th or 7th rounder.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playernews.aspx?sport=NFL If you look at that link from the original poster, there's an updated story that indicates you're correct, and St. Louis can not negotiate with anyone as they aren't officially on the clock yet.

The guy's career consisted of 2 catches for 4 yards and 0 touchdowns. My condolences to him, but to say he was coming onto anything other than the free agent pool before his injury is a stretch.

Ridiculous. We have two perfectly good recievers on this team besides Evans. Neither is good at working on the outside or in the red zone, meaning we need to add someone...but adding 2 WRs would be pretty much a wasted pick, unless you're assuming Evans is leaving.

It seems foolish to me to draft a cornerback when you have one of the NFL's worst pass rushes. No secondary can make up for a lackluster pass rush. On the other hand, many a defensive line have been known to cover for less than ideal secondary personnel.