colin

What stands out to watching this game vs watching the bills are two things 1: both of these teams have such smooth execution. They are lined up and schemed for a particular purpose and the execute towards that purpose really well as teams 2: the teams are like chess pieces who are extensions of their coaches -- meaning they are doing what they are set up to do, but they are just not dynamic at all. The bills on O especially are set up to attack everywhere, a big part of that is Allen, but it really feels like we can kill you 5 ways on any play while these teams are like one read, one snap and go. On D our team obviously lines up to confuse in the back end and everyone goes screaming after the ball once it's snapped. These teams seem more "all in" on what they are trying to do, with less room for secondary tacklers and such. I find this stuff interesting to contrast to our team

That's a great point. They let a better QB walk who was such a better human being (lol, imagine saying that about Baker!). They also paid a fortune for Watson, a d a ransom of picks. I b word a out how our fo signs and drafts a bit, but holy cow are they taking a dump on the fans on the other side of the Erie. That's a great point. They let a better QB walk who was such a better human being (lol, imagine saying that about Baker!). They also paid a fortune for Watson, a d a ransom of picks. I b word a out how our fo signs and drafts a bit, but holy cow are they taking a dump on the fans on the other side of the Erie.

The special teams coordinator should be on notice. Some horrible coverage lapses on d, and the o made money but imo it was mostly Allen being a hero. I think Brady went to the well too much a the first down runs, they were getting jacked up. A lil play action mighta broken it early. I think it's fair to criticize a sloppy game where they came out flat, that's a coaching shortfall

D was cheeks for first three drives, was good after. Secondary play wasnt great, line was sick. Penalties killed us. On o, we ran way too much into a wall, the cards called a great run d vs US but they had no answer for the passing, not the best of play calls by Brady. If we mixed in like 4 play action plays on first a d second down instead of runs we walk way in a laugher. Work in progress

if he gets hurt for too long or too often then this is a bad move, if he stays healthy it's prolly a solid one. he has some real ability and a lot more upside, and he's a physical monster and an intimidator. methinks w the young tackles coming up, the brain trust is thinking about when they have to move on from dawkins, and being in as much of an advantage position as they can be. say what you will about how kc builds their team vs ours, one thing reid never lets happen is he won't have a team without premier talent at the OT position. there is some wisdom there.

I think josh is better than lamar (i think he's a bit better than mahomes too, I might be biased!). The only real knock on lamar IMO is his playoff games. his passing and d reading flaws are more than offset by his green light while still protecting the ball, and his insane play making ability during the regular season. in the playoffs, it just seems like he gets bottled up and performs worse than he does in the regs. I see him as the QB equivalent (and perhaps the baltimore O) of our D. just top level overall stats and results for the reg season, but the short comings that get papered over in the regular season get exposed in the playoffs. for our d, i think there are some key personnel issues, but mainly its our play calling/scheme strategy, particularly when going up against teams in the playoffs, or for the second time (i.e. KC). there might be some of that with lamar and the raven's O, but he's pretty freewheeling and creates his own shot (similar to josh) but just like our D did vs him in 2021, if you can keep him from running past you and make him read the d and make accurate on time passes, he's historically faltered in the playoffs.

I think our TE and RB production is going to be near the tops in the NFL (combined). Our WR production will be maybe middle of the pack. Josh's legs will be the xfactor and provide key 3rd downs and of course touch downs on top. I think our OL will end the season better than the OL did last year. Put all of that together, and I think we have a top 5 possibly top 3 O. doing it with different combinations of TE and RB as well as mixing and matching the WRs will be the real strength. if we are not predictable on O then it's a horrible challenge for the opponents. if we can manufacture some YAC, we have a real shot of being a consistent 30+ point a game O.

6.5 spread, 2nd biggest of the opening week. I think the bills are still the team that blows out bad teams (last year injuries and coaching issues interfered with that), so bills 37 Cards 24, not as close as the scoreboard indicates.

his attitude was what it was, but it was well known when we traded for him, he had his own issues in mini. IMO, he wasn't removed for his attitude. he was junk the last 8 or so games of the past 2 seasons, and was not even jag level in our past two playoffs, where we got bounced both times at home in the second round. not catching the big balls that hit his hands, not scoring TDs, that's why he's gone. you can perhaps argue that his negatives from his attitude were weighted vs his lack of production, but if he had a couple big TDs in each of the last two playoffs (not much to ask a 30mm type player who's got josh allen chucking him the ball) he'd be back with the same attitude. if he had a stellar poyer type personal impact on the team, maybe he'd have been kept around, but not at what he was being paid. maybe at like knox money or something. he's just not good enough. my biggest gripe as a bills fan is the front office has inked up miller and diggs, two guys who's age vs production made their contracts bad moves, as well as guys like knox and milano (knox was above average for a year or two, milano was great for longer, but both cannot be relied on to be healthy). the NFL is a young man's league, and more cheaper younger players are necessary to build chip teams.

we are not going to look as set at the wr and offensive sets as we did at the beginning of last season. remember diggs putting on an absolute clinic vs the jets day one in a game we lost due to allen turning the ball over 4 times (and i think davis was basically the reason for two of them)? a mix and match wr group, supplemented by what i expect to be top 5 TE and RB production is our key to getting our wins early in the season. the d remains to be seen, but i fully expect it to be solidly top 10 and possibly top 5 (we were like 8 last year after some shocking let downs vs the jags, new england, and so on). imo we will make our money with play action and allen going off script. we have what looks like solid wr blocking for the first time since allen got here. i've always thought allen with a legit running game (away from his own legs) is a scary sight, and i think we have that more than ever this season. especially early, because the past 2 seasons cook was on the bench for the first 7 or so weeks.

we have injuries and lost people on D, we have the goat of all time at qb, being able to posses the ball and extend drives, while also being productive is the key for us winning, especially in the playoffs. cook gives us elite production right now. diggs and davis gave us trash production in the playoffs and end of the year the last two years, IMO that is why they are gone. I say you keep production and emphasize it, so this season no i would not trade cook. i think he can flirt w 2k yards from scrimmage this year. I view touchdowns as a team stat more than an individual player state, and we score a lot of touchdowns, so even factoring in cook's bad results dropping sure fire td passes (i do expect that to improve) he's one of our best producers. if we can be a very solid run team, like 125-150 a game, allen can put us over the top to be a top 3 O with like 30-40 attempts a game. cook is a big part of both of those. the jury is out if we will be in super bowl contention again this season, but the plan seems in place. we have bigger stronger passing targets (hollis and FSU rookie can bash bodies around blocking, and we have two starting quality TEs) we are 2-3 deep at rb, our qb is a turbo truck in human form when running the ball, and our o line can mash people around (although we have not been strong at all in short yardage blocking). being able to pass vs run ds, run vs passing ds, passing to backs, and being able to do all of it out of multiple formations is the corner stone of the EP offense. I think we have that as much as we have since we got allen, so if it ain't broke don't break it. if our back 7 can hold strong, and we get improved pass rush from von, groot, aj, etc, then we can absolutely be a top 5 d as well. the key, quite obviously, is the d holding up vs elite qbs in the post season. balance on O goes a good way towards helping that, but keeping the opponents o off the field, allowing us to dictate pace at various points of the game (the bills are elite in end of half scoring), and wearing out opponents, which imo is as much about breaking down the opponents d physically as it about mentally wearing them out. the old adage of "here comes tom brady again, another game winning drive" was in large part because the pats could set up great play action, chew up the middle of the field running and passing, and putting themselves in positions to score. that's who we are set up to be.

presuming cook has improved his pass blocking at least a little bit, james or ray ray both give us the same utility. our O will be able to run the same plays (once they are all up to speed and such) with either of them on the pitch. more explosiveness and fluidity from cook, more power and smash from ray ray. if we can run the same plays w both guys on the field, we can trick the d and run the big rhino into the smaller fronts and the faster guy away from them. part of what has hurt us since dabo was our OC was we were a bit predictable based on who we lined up. even last season w brady we could only run certain plays depending on who the rb was (especially as murray broke down).

i think the simplest take away is that in the playoffs, kc will play rough and rowdy and get the best of it in terms of whistles, and diggs folds like a cheap lawnchair, shakir does ok but is not huge, knox doesn't really catch well, and kinkaid does well. getting some next level athletic ability and pure size adds something we just haven't had in a while. coleman gives us that. i doubt strongly he will match diggs' productivity of last year, but i have every expectation that he will out perform what diggs has been in the playoffs for us.

i'd take worthy because i think he can take the top off w allen (which we simply could not do last season), but i agree with others that being such a shrimp is a big concern, and maybe other guys in the draft project better for us. Trading up or trading for a big time talent and then paying him (say JJ or aiyuk) is also a real option IMO. diggs fell off terribly, so losing him really doesn't matter as much in the playoffs, but have to win the division and get there in the first place and we need season long production. like the FO said, we need match up guys. no one in the draft beats nebors or harrison jr at that, so i'm all for paying the king's ransom to get one.

they look like children's pajamas

in 2021 we lost at kc in the 13 second game. tre was out and our d couldn't stop a thing, and it still took a comedy of errors for us to lose that freaking game. in 2022 we lost 3 games all season (by a total of 8 points!!) but the team was mentally shot and damar got hurt and the performances after that (even the wins over the pats to end the year and hosting miami) were cheeks. we were the odds on fav to win the superbowl through most of that season yet we lost our only pass rusher (von) tre came back and was worthless (an analyst said throw to whoever tre is covering, because that person is open) and we brought beez and brown out of flipping retirement (with shakir not getting burn, obv he shoulda) as meaningful contributors to the O. got spanked by cincy as a demoralized team could not run or stop the run for long enough to get into a 14 point hole, saffold barely even bothering to lick the stamp on his mailed in performance. diggs had his annual disappearing act in the second half and zero in the post season in 2023 we were cheeks at what, 6-5? milano down, daquan down, tre white (who didn't suck as much at first) down, knox was banged up, miller was out to start and a literal zero after that. we fired the clueless OC, 911 gate came out and then we went on a miracle win streak. in the second half of the season, diggs went to trash and was a total zero in the post season, but we won games w our new rookie oc and running and spreading the ball around. vs kc at home, we had two too hurt to play well corners, old slow and broken safeties, a barely jag lb in dodson and a literal zero off the couch aj klien. d got shredded. williams came in late as a rookie (see a pattern?) and we had our first and only stop of the entire night, but we missed a couple plays and a FG late to lose by 3. the pattern of this team is pretty clear. we have a bunch of guys either hurt, or just so old or slow they are a huge target for the other team on D, or just don't produce at all on O. our WR room looks worse today than it did last year for sure, but diggs and davis (altho davis was magic vs kc in 2021) were zeroes in the playoffs, davis was out last year and diggs was hot trash. to win a super bowl we need our d to be able to make like 4 or 5 stops in a playoff game, and our o not to just stink. given how bad the "star" guys have been on O and D the past 3 playoffs, we aren't losing much just replacing them w JAGs, and any WR who can show up and play above average in the playoffs is an upgrade to davis and diggs over the past two seasons. i think we are as close as we have been, we need luck and health, but blowing out underperforming losers isn't going to hurt the team.

10 is soft, 4 is a touch aggressive, but as mentioned luck and such will have a big impact. what we do to add talent in the draft and pre/post draft will matter a lot. ayiuk and guys like that being available can make a immediate and large impact on the team, a big trade up could also make a splash (way less certainty tho, of course). If some stops get pulled out and we add some real talent (starters above replacement level) then we could nudge up some. the reality is as banged up and goofy (HC calling DC plays, switching from a 2nd year oc to a rook oc in the middle of the season, aging roster and tons of injuries) as our season was last year, we were a play or two (16 and 14 dropping perfect deep dimes) away from beating kc who were the champs. we have every chance to win the chip this year that we had the past two years.

net net this will benefit the nfl. once the pipeline fills back up, you will have more players with more college experience, so that's free training. you will project a bit less on talent and more on actual productivity, and instead of the player developing on the nfl's dime, they develop on NIL contracts. in terms of shorter pro careers, most players fall off prior to the end of their last contract, and often enough that it matters during a very big contract. all older players get the boot and get replaced by younger players anyhow. i think the view on older vs young rookies now is a comparative one. you don't want to draft a 24 year old who was dominating vs 20 year olds, because it means they were just big fish in a small pond. if the average age fo the best players goes up like 1.5 years, then you have a more apples to apples data set, which makes analysis a bit easier. i'd put it as more joe burrows and dalton kinkaids, and less chris weinkies.

given we ate the cap (making the cap constraint for houston much less painful) and got a next year 2nd, and we had to give away a few picks as well, on the diggs trade, makes me think if sf is not eating as much cap on aiyuk then the draft capital cost for him should be meaningfully lower. also, a lot of other wrs and such have been traded (chargers for example) for like 4th round picks and such. im figuring if we can trade for aiyuk and have to extend him out the gate, it should cost a 3rd or less. i'd do that if i thought we could also trade up (if needed) and nab a top flight wr in the draft. Although we might not trade up, and maybe even trade down, i don't see us not spending at least high picks on a WR this draft, even if we trade in for aiyuk

has potential, but gets hurt too much and has bad hands. been the same player since his rookie year. i'd love him to break out, but he hasn't done so yet

he was great for 2 years, and then great to start, meh to finish, and a zero in the playoffs for two years. not worth 23 a year, so he had to go. his attitude and all of that would be acceptable if he continued to be a top wr, but he just isn't anymore. history will show us that josh made diggs wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more than the other way around.

ya, in some management training stuff i did recently they made a distinction between urgent and important, (some would look at it as big upside vs unacceptable downside). urgent stuff always gets eyes on it, because the kind of people who run organizations in the modern world have a huge bent towards avoiding downside and love to be proactive (i'd say an elon musk type is the exception, where he's always "looking down field" so to speak). Beane is obviously a prototype Type A guy, so he's concerned about the urgent stuff, but that's lead him to over pay to keep poyer, you might say the same about morse, over draft RBs (as we've always had a bit of a hole there) and at times way over pay for rotational D lineman. I suspect he's learning that slight differences between toohils and addisons of the world are not worth the big contract differences when you are throwing them in for a limited number of snaps, but the slight differences between kinkaid and knox are sufficient in terms of their game impact to go out and draft kinkaid when you already have knox, and so forth. i still think we need to have a new real play maker on O emerge (maybe diggs goes back to 2020 form, maybe rookie, maybe cook continues to imrprove, whatever) and we need to add play makers on D vs last year (milano being healthy, von returning to form, aj growing, i think there a few paths there) to get us over, and no amount of medium to good signings (like we used to love) is gonna get us there.

so we now have basically full roster depth at all positions, so we won't NEED to draft a guy due to lack of bodies in a slot. kinda makes sense. the difference this year vs prior years imo is that we used to way over pay depth type positions and marginal starters, at S, OL (staffold!), and always at DL. looks like we are packing in more bottom of the pile contracts.

didn't we trade up for kinkaid? we traded down for tre, but up (i think) for elam. we traded up for josh, and i THINK for edmunds. we've done some 2nd round and perhaps 3rd round (that im forgetting) trade ups too. we traded our first for diggs as well. it's clear to me beane looks at the draft as a place to get talent, and does not see much value in just having draft picks (remember when new england was obsessed with 2nd round picks and traded like every year for them? lol). with 11 picks, i think we are keeping at most 7 players we draft this year, and maybe less (as in, on opening day). the WR, S, DT and DE free agency signings shows me they filled out as much need and depth that they could prior to the draft, so it is a pretty sure bet that beane will target his guys as they are potentially available, and wheel and deal all over the place to get them. most likely, i think there is less of a run on wrs than expected, so he'll trade up to get someone he sees as a like top 4 or 5 wr and a like 12th best player at pick 15-20. i think 2nd and 3rd round trades are likely too, where he grabs someone they think is a stud S or 3 tech as well. OL and big RB are the other things we walk away with earlier rather than later in the draft.

i agree, except i might trade up for thomas, but not at the cost of a 1st or whatever. if we add an actual star WR, someone who in 2 or 3 years is objectively better than diggs, then this team is a problem of the highest caliber. in my barely informed opinion, nabers is that guy this year, and getting him might mean we traded away the 32nd pick