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Everything posted by GG
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The Media's Portrayal of Trump and His Presidency
GG replied to Nanker's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Perfect. They can now pin the Pearl Harbor bombing on him too. -
DirecTv Sunday Ticket- Potential big issues
GG replied to Beast's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
In which markets? I'm not aware of any blackouts from February. AT&T currently blocks CBS-owned and Nexstar local stations. BTW, these transmission agreements are the biggest reason your cable bills are so high. -
As I said, investors' actions didn't follow fundamentals. Again, different things. TARP was run through the Treasury which purchased the financials' preferred stock and debt. When did the Fed do that as part of QE? You're all over the place. Nobody is discussing Fed's role as the lender of last resort or the possibility of a US Government default. You keep skirting around the fact that the Fed created nearly $3 trillion of assets out of thin air and used reserve accounting to float the additional cash into the system. They used the cash to buy real assets, which will need to be repaid, retired or absorbed into the private sector over time. That's why I keep harping that it's a race against time, because the Fed is unwinding QE at about $500 billion/year. That amount is being absorbed by the private sector which effectively takes up the maturing obligations on Fed's balance sheet. This is the part that's missing from your analysis. QE unwinding only works when there's enough time for the private market to soak up the bloat of the central banks' balance sheets. Even though Fed is reducing its assets and liabilities by not replacing the maturing obligations, those obligations are replaced by new MBS or Treasury issuances. Somebody has to buy the new debt. If there isn't enough private sector demand for the new debt, the Fed is stuck with those assets, because somebody has to buy the new debt. Maybe this is where your discussion of Feb being the lender of last resort comes in !! QE is nothing but a clever way to avoid Treasury issuing $2.7 trillion in new cash and throwing it into the private sector. It's a good gambit, as long as the private sector is accomodating. Yet I continue to be astounded by economists who think that the economy moves only at the direction of the central bank and that government policies can force companies to act outside their self-interest. It's as if the 6 Summers of Recovery ©️ ™️ never happened or there was a lesson to be learned from them.
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DirecTv Sunday Ticket- Potential big issues
GG replied to Beast's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Only CBS-owned stations are blacked out on DrecTV and Uverse. Sunday Ticket doesn’t show games that are on your local CBS feed, so the current blackout of CBS-owned stations shouldn’t affect Sunday Ticket games. You won’t be able to watch the games on local CBS station on DTV, though. They’ll resolve it soon anyway. -
Hister would be close enough.
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There's a franchise QB in the house. Pick another position.
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The Deep State War Heats Up :ph34r:
GG replied to Deranged Rhino's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
If I had a dollar .... -
Do you really want to spend over an hour on the bus?
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Ravens having trouble selling tickets to opener
GG replied to PromoTheRobot's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Battle of priorities for NFL franchises - do you provide ease of entry/exit or have more space for concessions/merch for the premium seats? New Era concourses for the lower bowl are substandard relative to other NFL stadiums. To build that concession space when the lower bowl is underground would add much more in construction costs. -
The Media's Portrayal of Trump and His Presidency
GG replied to Nanker's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Too bad the Dems can't use the perfectly set up punchline - "It takes one to know one." -
Ravens having trouble selling tickets to opener
GG replied to PromoTheRobot's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Odd play for them to highlight. He underthrew an open receiver by 4 yards. That's an easy pick if the safety is there. -
Speaking of conflating things. TARP was the immediate and necessary bailout to restore market liquidity that required Congressional approval to allow Treasury to buy banks' equity and debt. QE was the Fed follow up to jump start the economic recovery after the crisis was averted, and didn't need Congressional authorization. But I'm sure you knew that. You're finally coming around to the crux of the argument. Funny how you now agree with my point, but attribute it to Minsky. Minsky is simply reiterating market mechanics, which you still don't want to admit. Follow Minsky's logic and ask why investors didn't punish the Fed's creation of $2.7 trillion of assets out of nowhere? The Fed was buying real assets with its magic money machine and someone has to repay those assets. Just because the Fed credited the private banks' reserve accounts doesn't mean that the money magically disappears in the same way it was created. The whole reason for QE is to boost the banks' reserves so that they can resume lending! Which they did, evidenced by JPM's loans increasing by $400 billion. It all goes back to the fundamental analysis, which everyone can see just swelled obligations by $2.7 trillion. The analysis doesn't change - the new $2.7 trillion in obligations just made the existing obligations worth less, which should drive yields higher. QE was a sly move that didn't require printing $2.7 trillion in new cash, but the net effect was the same, the "private" central bank just created $2.7 trillion of value out of thin air, while betting that the private sector will suck up that capacity through economic growth. If investors didn't have confidence in the US economy, you bet your pants that the Treasury yields would have spiked. The investors ignored warnings of the 3 rating agencies, each of whom took negative rating actions in November 2011. Here's the operative passage from the Fitch move: "Fitch's revised fiscal projections envisage federal debt held by the public exceeding 90% of national income (GDP) and debt interest consuming more than 20% of tax revenues by the end of the decade, and including the debt of state and local governments - gross general government debt will reach 110% of GDP over the same period. In Fitch's opinion, such a level of government indebtedness would no longer be consistent with the U.S. retaining its 'AAA' status despite its underlying strengths. Such high levels of indebtedness would limit the scope for counter-cyclical fiscal policies and the U.S. government's ability to respond to future economic and financial crises. The Negative Outlook reflects Fitch's declining confidence that timely fiscal measures necessary to place U.S. public finances on a sustainable path and secure the U.S. 'AAA' sovereign rating will be forthcoming following failure of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (JSCDR) to agree at least USD1.2 trillion of measures to cut the federal budget deficit over the next 10 years as mandated under the Budget Control Act passed in August (BCA 2011)."
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Wonder if Omar or Tlaib commented on this?
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Ravens having trouble selling tickets to opener
GG replied to PromoTheRobot's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Figures they didn't do it for last year's home opener -
Global warming err Climate change HOAX
GG replied to Very wide right's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Don't forget the straws. The straws, man! -
Reserve accounting is not the reason that QE wasn't inflationary. Investor acceptance is the reason. Like I said above, the truism in banking is that you either have access to credit or you don't. The only differentiator is how much that credit costs you. The Fed has the power to control maybe 25-50 basis points within its interest rate target. If the markets bet against the sovereign, then it's game over. You focus on interest rates, the markets focus on yields. I hope you understand the difference. There is nothing unique to US Treasury creating its fiat currency. All sovereign nations do it, but investors don't treat all countries equally and that's why some countries get far more leeway. If the major bond buyers had a better investment and safety alternative to the US$, the QE would have been far more costly. This is where the credit fundamentals diverge from market acceptance. Bond dealers are still clamoring for high quality US$ assets despite their low returns, because the alternatives are far worse. In a world awash with financial liquidity, the premium on US$ assets is still high, and that's what affords the Fed to be more loosey with fiscal policy than what fundamentals would suggest. How about sticking to the proper timeline? QE wasn't the solution for the crisis. TARP was. The quick turnaround of the financial sector and the repayment of each TARP dollar proved that this was a temporary liquidity crisis rather than a full out financial crisis. QE went in to jump start growth after the financial crisis subsided. You keep harping on the reserve accounting, when you should focus on the $3 trillion that was created out of thin air. That creation is fundamentally inflationary, but the markets gave the US$ a pass because the alternatives are still much worse. Again, the Fed and Treasury are afforded financial privileges from the markets that few other nations can get away with. I brought in cryptos and stock because you still insist that the US Treasury has a monopoly on currency creation. It does not. It has a monopoly only on the US$, which is the largest reserve and base currency. That doesn't preclude anyone else from creating a separate currency. I can make the same analogy with kids trading in baseball and Pokemon cards. No dollars need to be exchanged. Excuse me, but when did I argue anything but? Why do you think I keep bringing up the fact that in finance, you either have access to credit or you don't? Why do you think I keep calling it a liquidity crisis and not a financial crisis? Why did Bear Stearns blow up in 2008, when everyone knew that the worst MBS securities were sold in 2005-2006? Why do you think that the Credit Suisse bankers who were forced to take the bad, illiquid MBS securities as part of their bonuses in 2010 made out like bandits within a few years? The Fed did it's job as the lender of last resort in 2008-2010, but that was not related to the QE program. QE was a shrewd way to pump liquidity back by using the Fed's balance sheet instead of Treasury issuing more money. The net effect was the same, creating $3 trillion out of thin air. The investors bought it anyway.
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My hunch is that it's more to keep hitting EU to change its hard stance on Brexit. I wouldn't be surprised if we started seeing new tweets about tariffs on German cars.
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You're right. Must have been the hot tub.
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McFaddens Out? PSA for NYC Bills Viewing
GG replied to plenzmd1's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
McFaddens is still open. BBNYC is moving to a different location. Former owner at McFaddens drew them there hoping for a better experience. -
The two are almost certainly mutually exclusive.
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The Media's Portrayal of Trump and His Presidency
GG replied to Nanker's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
If said reporter was an active participant in the coup attempt ... -
Yet again you conflate topics and focus on the back office plumbing of how the reserves are created vs looking at how the private market uses the liquidity provided by the central bank. US$ is just another form of currency, and is a legal tender as much as GBP, EU and Yuan are. The USA's preferred status gives it an upper hand in setting the benchmark of what the currencies "cost," but by no means is the US$ money printing operation a monopoly on currency creation. It's laughable that you even suggested that. The transaction value may be expressed in US$ terms, because it is by far the most widely circulated and traded currency, but that doesn't mean that the exchange of goods needs the US$ currency. In your example, Apple may choose to pay Intel in Euros, Yuan or any other available currencies that are most efficient for that transaction. They may agree to utilize offset provisions in their contracts, where no dollars are exchanged, and everything is settled in the accounting ledgers. Apple is not reliant on the US money supply to conduct its business. The mechanics of the US money supply certainly affects Apple's cost of doing business, but it is not tied to the US$ in the way that you describe. What if Apple moves its HQ to Berlin and reclassifies its financial reporting into Euros? I'd like to hear your explanation of how the creation of cryptocurrencies relies on the US Treasury. Thanks for the long dissertation on the Fed's role as the lender of last resort, which wasn't a topic here and nobody asked for. Wonder why you added the tidbit that Fed required former investment banks to recharter as Fed-controlled banks to get access to emergency funding, but ignored the fact that the financial crisis was driven by creation of $$trillions of new debt by entities that were not under any central bank oversight. Doesn't that alone blow your theory out of the water? The discussion is why hasn't the unprecedented QE led to inflationary pressures that economic models predict? Citing the Fed's role as the ultimate backstop and lender of last resort in the US does not answer that question.
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McFaddens Out? PSA for NYC Bills Viewing
GG replied to plenzmd1's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Multiple reasons. Management change, worsening service, taking Bills club for granted, etc.