John from Riverside
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Posts posted by John from Riverside
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As someone that lives in a house full of raider fans.....
This man is is a demi god
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And yet that group got the Bills to our best record Ina lot of years.
Is the D coordinator with the jags to?
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Top 100 NFL player last year 34.......I think your wrong....but rather then debate that I will let Clay prove it
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He was just asking someone to cook him a hamburger.....he was hungry for christ sake!
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Do people now realize that getting a franchise QB in free agency is complete pipe?
Teams DO NOT let their good qbs hit free agency.......the only way to get a good qb is to draft and groom
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Because Harvin was never on a 3 year contract. It was always a 1 year deal that was structured as a 3 year deal to save a few cap dollars this season. The 2nd and 3rd years have already been voided.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/percy-harvin/
It is possible that we re-sign him next season, but would be competing with other teams as he will be a FA.
I realize all this.....
but what happens if
Percy actually likes playing here and is tiring of moving around....he is bonding with his HC...his postional coach....etc etc
He is playing on a team that he is going to find a nich....but will not be the primary receiver
While I root for an injury free season.....Percy has not shown to be season long durable....perhaps now that he isnt being thrown to on every down he might find that durability
I think he might stay
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The Bills won't have much carryover from 2015 to 2016. As YOLO noted in the article he linked the Bills will likely head into the season with just under $5M in space, but some of that will be needed for the salaries of additional players who come aboard when an injured player gets put on IR. They may carryover $2-3M.
If the league cap is in the $150-153M range (as expected), then the Bills will be tight to it as things stand. They're at about $149.5M committed now, but draftee signings and other roster moves will increase that slightly. Some room is coming, though. Harvin won't be kept, so that will free up $8M in cap space. Changing Clay's 2016 roster bonus to a signing will free up another $7.5M. There will be other moves made that will effect the final numbers for 2016 - cuts, new FAs and a new class of draftees - but re-signing Dareus is certainly manageable.
I want to know why people are soooo sure Percy will not be kept
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I've written posts to that effect, hell, my avatar screams it. I used to change it all the time. I've wanted to change it lots of times, but I can't until the "special rules for EJ" nonsense ends. I've been trying to impress upon this board the following, undeniable questions and answers, from a quantitative prespective(and therefore as near to being the truth as we can get):
Question: For the last 40 years, in all but a very few cases, it's taken 3 years minimum for a QB to acclimate to the pro game. But, suddenly because a few decent rookie QBs(and when I say decent, try telling me that RG3, Luck, Kaepernick, or Wilson are comparable to Montana, Marino, Elway, Kelly, Manning or Brady) have a few good years recently, in every way a statistical outlier, we are supposed to ignore the last 40 years of contrary data, wholesale?
Answer: No, no we are not, because that's idiotic. This notion that ALL rookies can "step right in and play in "today's"
NFL" because...new, something, that causes...something, is Underpants Gnomes ridiculous. I don't care about spread offenses in college. I don't care about "new" offense X, which isn't West Coast-level innovation, thus not new at all. I certainly don't care that we have media clowns and their parrots running around pretending a correlation = a causation.Ask yourself: how does the RG3 trade look now? How come Tebow isn't an all-pro, after all he can "change the NFL because: winner", right? What happened to Kaepernick last year? Name one SB winning QB in the last 10 years who is undeniably worse than Wilson(Hint). How many are much better? Why hasn't Luck been to, never mind won, a SB already?
Answer: because most of what college football fans/media say is subjective garbage, in general, and doubly so when their "thinking" is applied to the NFL. No, the NFL isn't "changing" because the biggest fanbois, fans/media, repeat themselves in hopes that it is. There's no causation here. There is only hype. The data proves it, because actually, the data proves: NOTHING! There is no pattern, there is absolutely no causal proof of anything. It might as well be random. The ONLY thing we have is that it takes ~ 3 years for a guy to head in one direction or the other.
Thus, EJ was always going to take 3 years to develop, if he develops at all, just like 98% of QBs who did over the last 40 years. The ONLY real differences between he and Tannehill are: EJ has more talent, but Tannehill plays. Therefore, I am tired of these "special EJ rules". Nobody, not even EJ, knows right now whether he has "it" or doesn't. Anyone who says they do is delusional. The data, and the outliers like Kurt Warner, prove beyond all doubt that "certainty" about NFL QB development, or what makes one, or where one will come from, is folly. The only certainty: What you think you "see" ...has a high statistical propensity to be pre-conceived BS.
"Wait and see" is the only quantitatively supported approach.
This should be stickied
Now I will say this....while I agree with you on every point.....the problem that we face here is there is indeed a window of opportunity for the bills due to their defense.....and while I DO think EJ Manuel has not gotten the amount of time needed to evaluate (in retrospect he should have been inserted back into the lineup when Orton started floundering last year).......but you cannot wait for a rookie to "figure it out" when you have other parts of the team that could get you to the championship game in other areas.....
but......then you also have to look at what your other options are.....is Cassel or TT THAT much better? THis is the chance that they take.
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Surely you aren't saying that only teams in "win now" mode covet star RBs?
Dibs....a little more time to chew on this on a Sunday.
No we are not the only team that covet's star RB's........but maybe it is we are in a position to actually be able to PAY a star running back.
I really hate to do this because like 80 percent of the threads are about QB.....but this really does go back to the QB position. We are able to biuld a dominant defense (we have been successful here with both draft and free agency) and we are able to trade assets and take on salary for a star RB because WE ARE NOT PAYING A STAR QB.....this puts us in a position to have a McCoy on the team
As far as McCoy's durability.....quite honestly shady reminds me of Thurman Thomas in this regard.......Thurman was really good at making himself really small at the point of impact deflecting a hit....Shady does the same thing.
On a interesting note.......there have been some who complain that we got McCoy rather then a back like Murray (how anyone could complain about having a top 5 back on the team is baffling to me but I digress) Murray RUNS OVER people....Shady MAKES PEOPLE MISS.......the latter running style allows for a longer career at a high level.
I would also like to include in this that regardless of McCoy's salary or his durability I still am a fan of platooning backs to make sure everyone makes it through the season healthy.......I know McCoy is gonna get the bears share of the load.....but keep giving Freddie some carries here and there and make him a part of the offense this year........then next year let Fred ride off into the sunset and inster Karlos WIlliams into that role.
And I was hoping to leave the aquisition of McCoy alone(covered in many other threads) and focus on the contract that we gave him.
Agreed. Also natural variants in runners' durability (some people can naturally take more punishment than others) is impossible to factor as well.
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I think we already have our reclaimation project on the team in the Cog
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I remember right before we drafted him i was reading a draft rag that gave player comparisons of rookies and who they related to in already NFL players.....
In this one.......Sammy Watkins compared to......
non other then.......
Percy Harvin
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Great points to add.
Does he ever add great points?
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Not nearly as long as your post but
This team is in "Win now" mode........
That is why McCoy is here......
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Randall Johnson
Dude is a beast....got better every game before he got hurt last year......
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I get the feeling that this could be Mario's last year with the Bills. They can cut him after this year and save almost 13 million off the cap. If Rex is so good at scheming pressure, they might look at having Hughes and Mario here as high dollar guys as a bad use of the cap.
Obviously a restructure is also possible, but they save alot of cap space by just releasing him.
You do realize that Mario is coming off one of his best seasons right?
Mario is not going anywhere.....not only is he a monster on the pass rush......his run stop is great...he is a complete player...he is one of the REASONS why people say we have the best DL in the league.....without him? Nobody is saying that.
The bills have set themselves up nicely to add years to Mario's contract......and put out money is bonus signing money to make it more cap friendly.
This will get done......and even if it doesnt happen this year they have the franchise tag at their deposal.
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About the footwork or the inaccuracy?
Hackett talked about EJ trusting what he sees and pulling the trigger more quickly as a cure for inaccuracy. I have reservations about Hackett as an OC, but I think he understood what he saw as a coach of players. I've seen articles quoting Brady on Luck, saying Luck was unusual for a young QB in that he would trust what he saw and make those throws quickly, and that if the QB hesitates then the ball comes out of his hand just a fraction of a second late and it's off. I've seen the same thing quoted by Rodgers that one thing that he felt he'd really improved
IMO you can see that in some of the plays on film. There's a throw in game 1 to Chandler where it's thrown behind him, and he gets a hand on it. IMHO the reason it's off is that EJ hesitated a fraction of a second and by the time the ball got to where Chandler was supposed to be, he'd already "been there and moved on".
I think timing is an underappreciated aspect of QB play
Lee, however, does not have my full confidence as a QB coach. I felt Fitzy regressed under his tutelage, and I felt he threw Geno under the bus after he left, ignoring that as the QB coach he himself should bear some responsibility for player development.
Its interesting that you bring up Lee and Fitz/Manuel
I was thinking about this the other day....Fitz DEF regressed under Lee
I do wonder if that was a situation of a old dog not being able to change his game without thinking too much....where as EJ might still be the (as Mayock put it) "Piece of clay that you can form into whatever you want at QB"
Im not saying your right or wrong....I just thought it was interesting
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And while people were quick to jump on the guy posting on you tube for being pro EJ
Posted one for Matt Castle today:
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Can anyone point out a game in which EJ played well or did something that looked remotely like playing QB? Who cares who really wanted EJ. Marrone's only good move as a coach was benching him. And before anyone tries to claim the Carolina comeback had anything to do with EJ go look at the film. Penalty aided and FJ smart drop of a bad pass by EJ kept drive alive. I pray there is a team who wants to give us a draft pick for this monumental bust of a player. Loser at FSU and a loser now. Zebras don't change their stripes and neither will EJ. He will always be mediocre.
Carolina game.....
Browns game before he got hurt
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has anyone checked this out on EJ Manuel? Did anyone from do this?
There are 4 of these on you tube...thoughts?
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Why?
EJ is still relatively inexperienced. It has been commented that a veteran, however overall mediocre, will often "win" a QB competition in preseason because the vet is faster to pick up a new offense and make the reads. Experience does matter for how quickly that happens.
If I heard "glowing reviews" of EJ on the 1st media day, I would assume that they hadn't finished installing the O yet and were keeping it really simple for him.
What we want to see is what's there towards the end of training camp and in preseason.
Hopeful.....
I have been on the EJ train as much as anyone here.....
He is in his 3rd year....
He is no longer a rookie
Cassel has already won the job. Bow to your new QB.
I am sure you are joking there.....
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It will not be a problem to sign Dareus and Gilmore, then Glenn and Woods in 2016, and Sammy in 2017.
2015 is Frdeddy's swan song, hello Karlos the Jackal.
The cap goes up $10M in 2016 & again in 2017.
In 2016 a rehabilitated Percy Harvin signs back with Seattle for 5 years.
I can't see Mario here after 2017. He will either retire or take a big pay cut / restructure.
Kyle & Leodis retire after 2017, as does Corey Graham, Manny Lawson and maybe Eric Wood. Lawson has ten years in the league already.
Shady has two to three good years left.
Tons of room for cuts, retirees and restructuring.
In 2017 Incognito is banned from the league as he actually rips somebody's head off and sh1ts down their throat. He's been wanting to do that for a while now.
There is plenty of room to retain Dareus, Gilmore, Glenn, Woods, and Sammy. How good will the team be is anyone's guess.
Agreed......I think we we are going to see now is a concentrated effort to sign our own and we will now not be big players in free agency......the good news is.....the word is there was a large increase in spending on scouting......
The draft is still where it is at to fill in the blanks on a team......I fully expect this team to draft a QB high next year no matter what.....darby for instance....the air apparent to McKelvin......Karlos WIlliams.....probably is looked at as the air apparent backup to Shady McCoy......etc etc.
Drafting is going to be very important.
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John, there is a reason guys like Orton and Cassel get passed around the league. You talk about Orton going into a shell. Orton simply played like Orton has his entire career. For the majority of his career, Cassel has performed like a journeyman qb.
if Manuel and Taylor suck, I guess you have no choice. Personally, I like the unknown more than the proven journeyman. The idea of beating the Pats with their former backup kills a bit of my busy for the season. Belichick will be able to gameplan for Cassel in his sleep.
As I said with Orton, if Cassel is the guy, I'd love to be proven wrong and he has a great season. But good NFL starters aren't entering camp for their 4th different team.
Good NFL starters are not available period.......
What you can hope for from Cassel is two years of "game mgt" play one this year and one next year while the 1st round pick gets brought up to speed......
I hope someone steps up.....I was really hoping to hear some glowing reviews of EJ on the 1st media day of OTA's......I didnt.....
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First of all... I am all for the Dareus extension.. .let's get it done.
I think most of us are in agreement here.
Secondly.. there will be costs ( not just financial) associated with this extension due to salary cap ramifications... particularly in 2016.
What are you willing to give up in future years in order lock up Dareus long term? Are you willing to give up Percy Harvin? Leodis McKelvin? Chris Williams ( ok.. CW is kind of a no brainer)? What if a high quality FA QB pops up on the market in 2016( Phillip Rivers/ Brees???) and we don't have the cap space to sign them due to the Dareus extension?
Percy Harvin might not ending up costing us that much. Lets keep in mind that he is playing on a run dom team with pretty good WR all around him...he wont get the numbers to justify a gaudy contract in this offensive system....and something tells me its more about fit for Percy then just dollars.......Leodis McKelvin is a GONER.....maybe not this year but next for sure. You dont draft Darby and keep McKelvin......Chris Williams might already be a goner.
A not on QB....what people dont understand is that there no luck, rivers, manning, brees in our future.....we have decided to biuld and spend our dollars AROUND the QB position.....what is MOST likely to happen is we DRAFT a QB with our 1st round QB because it is the cheapest best way to find a QB to groom. When you sink all that money into the DL.....there really is no other choice.
Also.. Mario Williams will certainly need to restructure his deal to give the Bills some breathing room in 2016 and beyond if Dareus extends. Do you think Mario will restructure?
I think the restructure of Mario is a forgone conclusion because you can give up up front cash without sacrificing cap......its gonna get done just a matter of when.
According to http://overthecap.com/calculator/buffalo-bills/ here's what the Bills situation looks like now...( pre Dareus restructure)
2015 - $6.5 mil in cap space
2016 - $1.5 mil in cap space
We certainly have room in 2015 to restructure Dareus .. however.. after plugging in a reasonable contract for Dareus into this tool... the Bills will certainly go over the cap substantially in 2016.. and that is after assuming the Bills cut Williams, Harvin and McKelvin in 2016 to get under the cap. The only way we can get this done and make it work long term is to have Super Mario restructure.. and even if he does that .. we will only have ~ $5 mil or so to spend for FA and rookies in 2016.
Some of these guys are not going to be here......Whaley has said as much when he talked about it being important to draft well to replace high dollar players.
So here's the hypothetical.... would you be willing to let Dareus go in order to free up money in 2016 for the cap room to sign/ trade for the best FA vet QB on the market in 2016?
If there was going to be such QB (which there is not) the bills will not be able to do this....nor should they. The identity of this team relies in its defense........which is dominant
FA LB Michael Buchanan visiting Bills - update: Signed
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Expect Manny Lawson to be a key role in the D this year.......