Matt in KC

We definitely need to add another safety after losing Bowen and Wire (to LB corps). I tend to agree with the posters above, that the third round might be a little high for taking another safety, given that they are unlikely to start (knock on wood). I'd think we would take a FS if we drafted one early (to compete with Ko). The only way we could afford to use 3B on a safety is if we draft a LB, RB and CB who we hope can play in their first year, and have another LB targetted who we think will be available in the 4th. I also think we need a second FB/RB in the middle rounds. I would not be at all surprised to see a safety drafted in rounds 6 or 7, but think there is a good chance (30-40%) that we just pick up another Bowen-like free agent. This would let us grab a prospect at one of the other lower priority positions: WR, buckup/future OG/C?, DE? (though others seem to think DT is more likely), TE?. Also, I think grabbing a QB project in a late round is likely.

Many people whined that London was overlooked for the pro bowl... again. Now, you and a few other posters think that Willis could come in and be an immediate upgrade. That is quite a difference of opinion. It's about as big as we ever see on the board. It's much bigger than the (McGahee | Gandy | Bledsoe | M Williams) is a bust vs. relax, he just needs better players around him arguments which are the norm. Sorry, I don't have much to add to the conversation. I'm just pointing out how extreme your position is. I agree with MDH; and even if Willis comes to the Bills in the best shape of his life, he has little chance of contributing at the same level as Fletcher right away. We should be very happy if he reaches that level by the end of his first year, and ecstatic if he passes it. A college kid coming in and being better than all but 5-10 athletes at his position in the NFL is phenomenal.

About Turner, Marv said "there are so many complexities to the deal that if it's done I've got to tell you it'd be a surprise." In other words, they have worked out a deal if Peterson and Lynch are selected before the Bills first pick. If that happens, they will trade this year's second round selection and another pick next year for Turner. ...Surprise!

I'd take Brian Leonard, who is listed at NFLDraftCountdown.com going eight spots after the Bills' 2nd round pick. http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/sub/mockround2.html

Kyle easily played above a fourth round level his first year. Marv was only wrong about guessing the future (picks by the other teams, Vincent getting hurt) not his assessment of Williams' talent. If Marv was voting for Kyle in the 4th, I definitely think it reflects well on him. And that he wanted Kyle over Ko dispells a bit of the "Marv is obsessed with drafting DBs" conspiracy theory. Where is this mentioned? Is it in the Marv video? I read the articles, but didn't see this mentioned. Thanks.

A sustained pattern of criminal behavior... This really is embarrassing for the NFL. I fully expect the league to hand down a harsh fine/suspension.

Nice draft! I posted a topic a week ago (http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=62764&hl=)listing what I thought were our top needs. We seem to agree RB, LB and CB come first. I also concluded another LB was our next most pressing need, so we seem to agree on Day 1. Where we differ is that I think getting another RB / FB and another Center/Guard is a higher priority than you. My "surprise pick" is a DE on the second day. Also, we really need another safety since Bowen was released. We may find a "new" (FA) Bowen instead of drafting another this year, so you may be right. I was suprised you selected a WR in the 4th. Do you really think Courtney Taylor or Paul Williams could beat out Price and Parrish for the #2 receiver position? I don't know much about eithre of these guys but your description of Taylor makes him sound like Aiken (who is going into the final year of his contract I might add).

1. Adrian Peterson - Houston 2. Patrick Willis - San Fran 3. Brady Quinn - Minnesota 4. Amobi Okoye - Miami 5.Ted Ginn, Jr - Atlanta

I think Talent, Need and Alternatives are all factors in making a choice. Example: LB - Willis is available Need: 90% (considers who is already on our roster) Talent: 90% Alternatives: 75% (higher = less alternatives if this player is not selected) Overall Decision score: .90 x .90 x .75 = .608 RB - Lynch is available Need: 97% Talent: 85% Alternatives: 65% (includes FAs) Overall Decision score: .97 x .85 x .65 = .536 WR - Ginn Need: 40% Talent: 87% Alternatives: 50% (includes FAs) Overall Decision score: .40 x .87 x .60 = .174 DT - Branch Need: 30% Talent: 93% Alternatives: 75% (includes FAs) Overall Decision score: .30 x .93 x .60 = .167 In the scenario where these players are available, I think we select Willis, not because LB is our biggest need, or because he's the most talented player available, but because he's the best fit of need, talent and our alternatives.

WR is really a longshot position for us to pick in the first round. Would this answer the "draft for need" versus draft talent question for the Bills front office...? I was okay with the Whitner pick last year because it was a big need, not just to get a safety, but to transition to the Cover 2. (So, draft for need last year, and ignore need this year?) I agree with your points except that I thought Reed did well as a possession receiver for us last year (34 catches, 21 first downs, 410 yards, 12.1 average). I think we have too many needs to take a WR early this year, but would not be surprised if WR is one of our top two picks next year. Nate hasn't returned punts for us in awhile: 35 in 2004, 8 in 2005, 0 in 2006. Nate's Stats at NFL.com Roscoe Parrish OTOH did well for us returning punts. We could maybe use depth at the returner positions, but McGee and Parrish are doing fine. I would be surprised if anyone else took over this year (barring injury).

I'm planning on returning to DC for that game. A Redskin's season ticket holder friend of mine knows I'm a Bills fan and is giving me his other seat. 200-level seats sound great. Here's an interactive web page where you can click on your exact section and get a look at the field. Maybe if you click on that section you can see what "obstructed view" is all about. (Maybe those fans stand for the entire game? ) What section are you in? I'll be in the upper deck somewhere.... http://www.redskins.com/tickets/stadium.jsp

So now we're definitely drafting a WR!

Great work! I've had that happen to me too, and I don't think there's an easy way to preserve the formatting. You could enter the spaces manually and use Courier font (all characters are the same width), or post the table elsewhere and put a link here. What you did is good enough for anyone who's interested. Thanks!

Hopefully Davis is finding out his market value and gives us a chance to sign him at or just above what he is offered. I'd love to have him back for his special teams play.

Sept. 9 DENVER BRONCOS - Win Sept. 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Win Sept. 23 @ New England Patriots - Lose Sept. 30 NEW YORK JETS - Lose Oct. 8 DALLAS COWBOYS - Lose Oct. 21 BALTIMORE RAVENS - Win Oct. 28 @ New York Jets - Win Nov. 4 CINCINNATI BENGALS - Win Nov. 11 @ Miami Dolphins - Lose Nov. 18 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - Lose Nov. 25 @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Lose Dec. 2 @ Washington Redskins - Win Dec. 9 MIAMI DOLPHINS - Win Dec. 16 @ Cleveland Browns - Lose Dec. 23 NEW YORK GIANTS - Lose Dec. 30 @ Philadelphia Eagles - Lose 7-9 - If it happens this way, it will be a roller coaster ride...

Nice breakdown by clownments22 Teams seem to win 53-54% of the time the week after their bye.

Peterson probably puffed on a pipe prior to performing.

One of those games for Pittsburgh they also have the previous week off, so I'm not sure you can count that as a disadvantage. For the Bills the games are against division rivals (Miami and New England) and are in consecutive weeks. I think division games are too important for this to be scheduled randomly, especially if random means we "always" get New England after their bye when we play the week before.

So, anyone know when the HD games will be determined / announced?

So your top three guesses are 0-8, 3-6 and 5-3? Looking at this schedule, part of me thinks we could finsh the first half of the season 0-8, but another part of me thinks maybe 1-7, but another part of me thinks maybe 2-6, but another part of me thinks maybe 3-5, but another part of me thinks maybe 4-4, but another part of me thinks maybe 5-3, but another part of me thinks maybe 6-2, but another part of me thinks maybe 7-1, but another part of me thinks maybe 8-0. ...sorry, I couldn't resist.

Just so anyone reading this doesn't have to go look for the same thing: We play Miami and New England the week after their bye week. Neither of them play an opponent coming off of their bye. The Jets play Phili the week after Phili's bye.

This game (11/18) is the week following our game against Miami where they have a bye the preceeding week.

I bet Mike Williams ends up a Buccaneer.

Is that 2.5 smilies, or 3.5?

Okay, thanks. I somehow missed the thread title. I'm tired.... I think this mock has us drafting one LB too many for our needs and I don't know many of the college players projected to be drafted after the first round or two this year, so forgive me. If we can get Willis, then a CB in the second, and Turner, we're off to a great start. If Tanard Jackson can backup at safety, and the other (again, not two more!) RB is more of a specialist (FB/short yardage), than I think this is close to what we need. Fill in some combo of a OG/C, DE, TE or a promising WR for the two players you took out (RB, LB), and I'm sold.