Matt in KC

Okay, thanks for posting. SG was a touch early; and I likely am a bit of a homer. If Gilmore's head was up it wouldn't (shouldn't) have been called since he was on the side where the ball was headed.

So, stupid question: by the rules, does a DB need to wait for the ball to get to a WRs fingertips, or further before making contact? I always assumed it was at any touch the ball "got to the WR" and they are fair game to hit/disrupt.

You're right. But I couldn't, and still can't really get my head around it. Except for the hit being more brutal than the NFL would like, I didn't see anything wrong at all. The timing looked perfect to me. I still think they threw the flag first, then talked about it and maybe decided the hit was legal after discussion. Am I just a homer, or did he really get there early?

I didn't like the call for the hit on Sanders at all when I saw the replay, BUT in real-time, the hit cause a very loud click that only happens when one helmet hits another. I'm convinced the refs called the hit largely based on the sound.

He should have thrown it to Chandler. I know I have the luxury of watching the replay and not having a LB hit me head-on at full speed, but it the LB was the only one covering Chandler (and Miller was looking away, at Jackson). The only way the playcall makes sense is if they also had a 4th down play already called. Orton cannot lose yards on that play! He was clearly out of the pocket. He needs to either run for the first, throw beyond the sticks, or throw it away.

701

Bailey versus Crowell or Fred Jackson is a tough choice. I think I'd play Fred. Bailey has only had the last 2 games this year with more than 3 targets (with 9 and 6). I just tend to think Bailey is more likely to bomb (e.g. 2 catches for 24 yards) than Fred, and Fred also has higher upside. My take is Fred has been getting healthier and healthier each week since the groin injury, and may actually back to full strength, and is clearly the Bills top back. The Broncos are a good run D team, but Fred is one of the top weapons in our offense. With his ability to block and catch, I expect him in for the vast majority of offensive plays. Crowell is easier to bench of this group because he doesn't catch many balls and won't help with your PPR. Also, he's dinged up. That said, I think he's liklier to hit 100 yards than Bailey. Anyway, I don't know too much about Bailey. If you know more that has swayed you, please share.

For the Denver game: WR screen to Sammy that doesn't quite break free. 3-4 yard gain.

No flex? I don't see anything I'd change. Crowell might see more RBBC and might lose touches to the Browns playing from behind. Then again, he might get good yardage with the Colt playing the 4th quarter focusing on stopping longer passes. I don't think there's much difference between Crowell and Jackson, so keep checking on Crowell's health. Similarly, I don't think there's much difference between Walker and Dwight Allen, but Walker has the better match-up and Allen might be a bit rusty after sitting the last month.

Chiefs - We knocked out their core ST player, Cyrus Gray, who tore his ACL and landed on IR

I don't think the Bills should match the money publicly, though perhaps a portion behind the scenes and/or payable at a later date. Unfortunately, Talley has a systemic problem, the type of thing a one-time payment isn't going to fix. If they used the money on education/training for a new career, they might be able to make permanent change. So, stupid question of the day: If the Bills did pay, would it count against their salary cap?

Huh?? I wish we had a QB that stunk that bad!

And twice Gino got sacked to push them out of FG range. Both times I said to myself "Okay, try to pass, but you CANNOT take a sack or give up a turnover here. . . ."

Thanks for posting this again. I always like reading the breakdown and see if it matches my impression from watching live. I'm surprised the line provided that good protection this week. I hate to ask for more legwork from you, but can you post the week-over-week trending for your categories? You've done this enough weeks now, that it would be interesting.

No way. Manning threw for only 179 yards against the Chiefs, and "only" 257 against the Dolphins the previous week. If he struggles against the Bills, the story will definitely turn to "What's wrong with Peyton?" and "When will Peyton retire?"

It's hard to even comment here. I can't say I'm surprised. Yes, I am surprised that it is hitting Talley, a bit, but not that this is happening. Yuck. Especially at Thanksgiving, this leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

Yes, our D-line has recorded about the same number of sacks as the Raiders (12), Falcons (14) and Bengals (14) combined!

I have Murray and think he'll get his chances, and is explosive, BUT he goes against some of the top run defenses the rest of the year.

I wouldn't go that far. They are capable of filling in and even making some plays, but there are no backups who can play like our starting 4. I hnik it's fair to say there is less drop off than most teams have going to their backups. This seems to be the right players in the right system.

I was very surprised and pleased. And cheers to the Lions for making/allowing it to happen. The home game was not wasted!

Not that I disagree with all of your points, but save it for another day. Watkins drawing coverage was a big part of the win. What a fun game, huh? Go Bills!

I like Brown better, but think that means 40-50 yards and a ~40% chance of a TD.

At least they're moving the game away from NYC, not toward it. It looked like we'd finally get 8 real home games this year. London next year had better be an away game!

St. Louis week 14 and Baltimore week 15 look pretty good to me. For defenses, I think sacks are one of the only stats that re really predictive. Both of those defenses have started slowly (1 and 5 sacks in the first 5 games) but have really picked it up recently with 18 and 20 sacks in the most recent 5 games. I think you have to take it one game at a time and grab St. Louis if you have to choose. For week 15, if you make it that far, only one other team will be alive that could want to grab the Ravens. In my league, playoffs are weeks 15 and 16. I'm looking at KC taking on Oakland, which is not giving up many sacks. This week is the trial run of that match-up. Right now the Browns @Carolina look like the best available week 16 if I make it that far. I'm in 1st place overall, up 2 games in my division, but have tough match-ups the next couple weeks. I wish the play-offs started week 14.

If only they had salted the roads, they'd be passable by now! I don't doubt some things could have been done better. But, if the Bills game starts at RWS on time, it will be a near-miracle, and the stuff of legends. I'd love to see pics or 2,000 Bills fans showing up to help dig out the team.