dave mcbride

Probably. Skyler Thompson sucks. But then again with a healthy Tua, Miami's offense is legit good. They have the best receiver pairing in the NFL. Both of those guys are pretty much uncoverable. And McDaniel is a good offensive coach.

I didn't say anything of the sort. I was just pointing out a factual error. The Bills D played well versus Miami. They gave up some plays, but all defenses do. They got obliterated vs. Cincy. They've been up and down in the playoffs overall in this regime -- great against Jax (who scored 45 on Pitt the following week), good against Houston, bad against Indy, great against Baltimore, bad against KC, great against NE, bad against KC (again), good against Miami, and bad against Cincy. Not surprisingly, they struggled the most vs. the best offenses. Not many can stop KC assuming the o-line isn't in a shambles (which it was in the SB vs TB; both OTs got hurt in the afc championship game vs the Bills).

Miami's offense was responsible for 15 points. The other 16 were gifted by the Bills' offense and STs. The team passer rating for Miami was 41.8 on 18-45 passing. They averaged 3.3 yards per play, turned it over twice, had a yards-per-rush average of 2.1 yards, and put up a measly 231 yards. Miami scored 31 points because Allen got really sloppy and turned it over three times and because the STs had a botched kickoff and gave up a big punt return. Holding a playoff team to 15 points and very little yardage is good, not bad. In fact, the Bills' D saved the team; they intercepted the ball twice in Miami territory and both INTs led to Bills TDs.

I hear you, but 3.3 yards per play, a passer rating of 41.8, and rushing ypc of 2.1 is very good even factoring in who was playing QB. Allen made some great plays in that game, but he was REALLY sloppy with the ball after they took a big lead and it almost came back to bite them. Plus a couple of bad special teams plays too.

The way I look at points given up is as follows: if a defense forces a turnover in the opponent's end and is automatically in FG range, holding them to a FG is giving up 0 points. The FG is basically automatic and the defense had nothing to do with the team being in FG position. If they give up a 2 point conversion, that's on the D (Miami had one of those). I did not assign the 3 given up by the Bills on the drive where Miami started from the Bills 48 after the pick. That's a judgment call, but they only gave up 18 yards on 7 plays (yes, I realize they gave up a fourth, but Miami is never going for it on fourth and 8 unless they're gifted a possession in the Bills end--another contextual factor). They had one legit TD drive, a TD after a TO in FG range plus a 2 pt conversion (5 points), and a legit FG drive (although they were gifted a possession at the 40 because of a terrible kickoff). It boils down to how you view the turnover that put Miami at the Bills 48, but if you hold an offense to 18 yards and one first down on 7 plays, that's not bad D. And the D was put in a possession where Miami going for it on 4th and 8 was a plausible option. Actually, I have them giving up 15, not 16: the FG drive that began at the Miami 40, the 5 points on the TD after the turnover that put them inside the Bills' 30, and the 75 yard TD drive in the second half. 16 were basically gifted to Miami by the Bills offense and ST. As for the Bills' D not playing well: Miami had 231 total yards, averaged 3.3 yards per play, and turned it over twice. The team QB rating for Miami factoring in sacks was 41.8, which is miserable. They averaged 2.1 yards rushing and 3.9 yards per pass play. Collectively, those numbers point to a dominant performance by the Bills D, which basically saved the team given all of the miscues by Allen and the ST.

Re: Todd Collins -- unfathomably, he had a 16-year career and the final game he played in was the January 2011 NFC championship game for the Bears (replacing an injured Jay Cutler).

No, they gave up 16 points. 15 points were the result of offensive turnovers and bad ST play.

Great take. My big question is whether McDermott / Beane are willing to go after the super-talented miscreants who can put a D-line over the top or if they're permanently scarred by the Greg Hardy experience (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HardGr99.htm). I suspect it's the latter, although I certainly don't hold that against them given the particulars of that unfortunate episode. I just don't see them going after the Frank Clarks (13.5 sacks in 17 postseason games) of the world. I hate to say it, but crazy d-linemen often do bring a sharper edge to big games than most. Just think of Leon Lett and Charles Haley ... Edit: Also, Chris Jones, in an interesting scouting report: https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/6/13/11744026/what-those-anonymous-scouts-said-about-chiefs-chris-jones-before-the

No, he got an offer after the Panthers went 6-10 and the defense stunk: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/car/2016.htm. He was given a job not because of 2015 but because of the overall body of work. I won't deny that the Super Bowl year helped his case, of course - they had a good D that year. But they were better in 2013.

One does wonder if they lowballed him on the contract -- i.e., giving him an offer he could refuse. It's been 37 days since the end of the Bills' season, which is quite some time. But who really knows ...

Au contraire. The Panthers were absolutely dominant on D in 2013 and racked up 60 sacks. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/car/2013.htm

Also a horrible non-reversal on a clear fumble by the Colts on that last possession ...

https://bufbills.com/player-bios/bobby_babich.pdf

They were absolutely shredded by Indy. First time a team has lost in the postseason with over 450 yards and 0 turnovers.

He sorta kinda has! As @BADOLBILZ can tell you, he was the only player capable of running the overly complex Rex scheme from an on-field perspective, and he did it for years. Without him, Rex's defenses cratered.

Huh? Frazier already was a head coach for multiple years and made the playoffs one year with Christian Ponder at QB.

I thought the same.

Sean Payton has done this over the years. Go back and look at the leading rushers for his really good Saints teams starting with the 2009 SB-winning team.

Thinking about this. Here's a rough list of the most productive RBs of the past quarter century or so who had legit 3-5 year bursts, in no particular order: Priest Holmes (undrafted) Arian Foster (undrafted) Dalvin Cook (second round) Ezekiel Elliott (first round) Austin Ekeler (undrafted) Jonathan Taylor (second round) Christian McCaffrey (first round) Josh Jacobs (first round) Todd Gurley (first round) Aaron Jones (fifth round) Frank Gore (third round) Terrell Davis (sixth round) Shady (second round) Corey Dillon (second round) Derrick Henry (second round) Adrian Peterson (first round) Marshawn (first round) Le'Veon Bell (second round) Alvin Kamara (third round) Nick Chubb (second round) Chris Johnson (first round) Jamal Lewis (first round) Jamaal Charles (third round) Maurice Jones-Drew (second round) Stephen Jackson (first round) Ray Rice (second round) Michael Turner (fifth round) Thomas Jones (first round, but a late bloomer who did nothing for the team that drafted him) Ladanian Tomlinson (first round) Clinton Portis (second round) Brandon Jacobs (fourth round) Edgerrin James (first round) Warrick Dunn (first round) Willie Parker (undrafted) Fred Taylor (first round) Marshall Faulk (first round) Tiki Barber (second round) Deuce McAllister (first round) Ahman Green (third round) Shaun Alexander (first round) Larry Johnson (first round, but only two really good seasons) Curtis Martin (third round) Ricky Williams (first round) Stephen Davis (fourth round) Eddie George (first round) An interesting fact: most of the really productive backs were thriving in the 1998-2012 (or so) period. In 2021, there were only seven 1,000-yard rushers in a 17-game season (seven in 2015 too). In 2000 and 2006, there were 23 1,000-yard rushers in a 16-game season. There are some outliers (16 in 2019) but the general trend is decidedly downward over time. Also, the most productive backs do tend to be taken in rounds 1 and 2 (31 out of 45 here), although there are plenty of really productive players who were either drafted later or undrafted. There are also guys picked later who have 1-2 good seasons max but maybe that's all you need from them: i.e, Ahmad Bradshaw, who won two SBs and was drafted in the seventh round. He had 235 yards from scrimmage in the Giants' 2007 playoff run and a whopping 386 yards from scrimmage in their 2011 run. The really productive backs also tend to play on teams that are at least pretty good and which make the playoffs, but far more often than not those same teams that rely on highly productive RBs can't get over the hump in the postseason. There are a few exceptions: Terrell Davis (the greatest postseason runner in NFL history), Lynch in 2013, Faulk in 1999, Jamal Lewis in 2000, Ray Rice in 2012 (he had an elite year), Brandon Jacobs in 2007, and Corey Dillon in 2004.

A few successful screens REALLY increases your YAC numbers. The Bills are not a screen team, and Andy Reid offenses are generally pretty good at screens.

Interesting (I believe you) because as I recall the draft profile of him was that he would be excellent in zone and was a good tackler. Now we also know that he’s an elite info processor, which if you add it up spells “McDermott system CB.” But perhaps there were some physical traits that threw him off. As for the SB, every defensive player seemed to have a bad game — probably because they were playing on the equivalent of an ice rink, which disfavors people who have to react (defenders).

He was excellent in the postseason and started all 11 games he was healthy for. He was better, although Elam was decent himself after a rough start. Regardless, I fully believe the bills wanted mcduffie because he has the perfect set of mental and physical traits to play a relatively complex matchup zone scheme. Why do you think the chiefs traded ahead of the bills?

Interesting piece in The Athletic. Note that if you subscribe to the NYT, you get the Athletic now; otherwise you have to pay for it or it’s paywalled. https://theathletic.com/4226466/2023/02/24/nfl-quarterbacks-s2-cognition-test/ It’s about the S2 cognition test. Key quote (regarding Josh Allen): ’He couldn’t give out Purdy’s exact score because it’s privileged information but said it was in the “mid 90s.” That’s about where Brees, the former Saints quarterback famous for lightning-fast decision-making, scored and where two of the top passers in the league now, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bills’ Josh Allen, also landed. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow took the test while at LSU and agreed to allow S2 to disclose the information. Of course he did — he scored in the 97th percentile.’ Also: ’The highest S2 score in last year’s draft class, in fact, was turned in by a cornerback, Trent McDuffie, who started 15 games for the Chiefs, including the Super Bowl.’ I remain convinced that the Bills really wanted McDuffie but were beaten to the punch by KC. In desperation (not a criticism!), they then moved up to get the last round-one quality CB, Elam. KC moved ahead of the Bills by trading their 50th pick to NE. McDuffie is obviously a better player at this point than Elam, but it’s early. His test results suggest he’ll be a very good player provided he stays healthy.

I forgot how good of a player he was: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnCh01.htm

OJ's 1975 season was significantly better than his 1973 season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SimpO.00.htm. Note the assigned AV numbers. More yards from scrimmage, more yards per touch, far more TDs, and a slightly lower fumble rate. 15.2 yards per reception for a running back is of-the-charts great.