dave mcbride

Not sure why you're opposed to looking at contextual factors rather than relying on a simple black-and-white portrait where the offense is bad and disappointing and nothing else should be considered. Life is more complicated than that.

First off, see the addendum I added to the post you responded to. Secondly, TB scored a lot that season but that was helped in part by the fact that their defense was terrific irrespective of the points allowed. They were fifth in turnovers forced, 3rd in TOP per drive and 6th in yards per drive. They had the number one rushing defense in the league. The current version of the Bills D hasn't been able to force a turnover to save its life for a quarter of a season running now and it can't get off the field, dropping to the near-bottom in third down conversion stoppage rates.

Great post, but I would add that having Allen as more of a running threat will be key to their success. He's an X factor for defenses in that regard, but until the last couple of games they shied away from it (for kinda stupid reasons, in my view; every injury he's had has been in the pocket). I also think the Bills were blinded by the Raiders game a bit, where he didn't really run and they had massive success anyway. The Raiders suck, but against better teams they need to stress the defense with his running ability.

I always go back to the TB defense of 2019 - the year before Brady got there. They were second in defensive DVOA yet 29th in points given up. That's because the TB quarterback was a turnover machine and opposing defenses scored an unholy number of defensive touchdowns. It skewed everything. A lot of people looked at the counting stats like points allowed and thought they weren't good, but then lo and behold Brady comes on board and the defense is fantastic statistically the next season with the same players. Hmm -- I wonder why. The Giants offense is the worst in the league (it's not even really close) by pretty much every measure, and they put the Giants D in bad situations all of the time. However, if you actually watch the games, Wink Martindale's approach was the first to flummox Shanahan, and the Niners struggled a bit before putting them away given the horrible offense facing them. They played well against Seattle (the offense was horrible), the Bills, Washington, and the Jets. They had no chance against the Cowboys, who scored early and often because the Giants either turned the ball over or couldn't move it at all. The Giants have had 7 out of 9 games where they've thrown for less than 200 yards and two games where they've thrown for less than 100 (including one game where they threw for -9 yards). Pretty sure @GunnerBill would agree with me about the Giants' D. Now to be fair, I am frustrated with the offense too -- very frustrated. There are real problems with it. But there is some context that I wasn't properly accounting for, and I'm always willing to change my mind if I become aware of evidence that undercuts my gut reactions.

A) Field position really matters for scoring probability, and B) the Giants' defense is actually pretty good. In one score games, there is no garbage time. The Bills were down two scores in the fourth vs the Pats. Was the scoring there garbage time? Was the Bills final TD vs the Bengals "garbage time" simply because their defense couldn't make a subsequent stop?

"But it’s the Bills’ defense that has fallen off since Dorsey took over, and especially this season, when injuries hit hard. That helps explain how the team has suffered a 3-yard regression in average starting field position on offense. Buffalo started 42 offensive drives in opponent territory over Daboll’s final 25 games with Allen. The number is 29 with Dorsey. This is one reason Buffalo is averaging fewer offensive points per game under Dorsey, despite experiencing raw gains in EPA per play, EPA per drive, success rate and various red zone statistics. ... With the defense falling off, the Bills have led on the scoreboard for 51 percent of plays in Dorsey’s first 25 games, down from 66 percent in Daboll’s final 25. Buffalo is also trailing more frequently (31 percent to 22). This has put greater pressure on the offense to succeed, shining a brighter light on its imperfections in games Buffalo loses. Almost no team in the league has been better than Buffalo on offense in games that were lost. Even counting Allen’s implosion game against the New York Jets in Week 1, Buffalo ranks second in offensive EPA per play during defeats this season. Only Philadelphia ranks higher, on a one-game sample (the Eagles are 8-1). The Bills are second to San Francisco in offensive success rate during defeats. Buffalo’s defense ranks 25th (EPA per play) and 18th (success rate) under the same criteria."

It's the reverse. The offense, outside of the one TO vs. NE and the drive start vs TB after the Harty return to the TB 25 yard line, is getting NO short fields to work with. It's hard to sustain long drives, and short-field scoring makes up a LOT of the scoring in the NFL.

This is a very good piece that makes the good point that McDermott's defense is putting the offense in too many lousy situations, which is affecting scoring. Drives have to be longer and they have few short fields. Sure, the defensive injuries are terrible and are crippling their productivity, but all the same this is a defense that has become blitz-happy (and not very good at it) yet can't force turnovers. I suggest reading the piece if you haven't yet. There are surrounding circumstances that are affecting the scoring--very poor defense and bad ST. I suggest reading the piece if you have access. It's a more sophisticated argument than that.

Put Cook on Miami and he's averaging 7-8 yards per carry.

Not really true. The 2015 Panthers were 27th in passing attempts and first in rushing attempts. It was very ball-control centric.

The Bucs D is horrible, but particularly vs the pass: 31st in yards given up, 31st in net yards per attempt, and 27th in TD passes surrendered. And they didn't have Vita Vea in that game against the Bills either. He's genuinely good.

It has been reported that Giants scouts were at the USC / Washington game. They're clearly scouting the QBs, and I have every expectation they'll take one. It's not hard for them to get out of the Jones contract.

You'll get no argument from me about the talent issue!

He had no chance because he couldn't shake the defender. Anytime a defender is running alongside you, he's handchecking you and slowing you down. To get to full speed, you have to get past him. He didn't. Again, Allen is banking on the receiver to beat his man. He couldn't. He was blanketed until the end.

The issue was that Harty couldn't beat coverage. Allen is hoping he can, but he didn't. Teams have to take shots. Successful ones - and Allen had a ton of them last year - open everything else up. I can't fault him for this.

I'm going to push back slightly in the sense that you do need to take deep shots, and he had single coverage. When he threw it, he didn't know that the Bengals DB would keep up with Harty, but he did. Maybe he stumbles or bites or whatever, but in this case he didn't. Allen DOES need to throw the occasional bombs. The lack of success this year on those plays isn't a sign that he shouldn't do it given his success on these throws last season. Agreed. He made the right read. The receiver couldn't beat his man.

The thing is, he is fully capable NOW of being a TE who averages 11-12 yards a catch. They just don't utilize him that way. He was fantastic in college on seam routes, but they don't have him running them nearly enough. He is good enough already to be one of those TE touchdown machines, and it really needs to start now. He's clearly a pretty massive talent; don't waste it by feeding him a steady diet of five-yard dumpoffs. Push him down the field and allow him to make plays. He can do it.

I don't know about that. I think Douglas and Joseph are genuine upgrades, so I expect them to improve a bit. They have a real one-technique who can play and a CB who is good in zone and actually makes interceptions. They were missing both.

Don't focus on counting stats with him. Focus on his ability to anchor and allow other players to flow to the ball. He was a wrecking crew last season. I mean, that isn't even really debatable.

Huh? Jones was freaking phenomenal for all of 2022. He's without question one of the best players on the team. White was also playing extremely well before getting hurt. They've also had scattered injuries throughout too - Oliver out vs NE, Rousseau out vs the Giants, Bernard, Benford, and Hyde going out last night. They have been DECIMATED.

Also:

Just one turnover in five games will do that you ...

I dunno. Past ain't necessarily prologue and just because some number gets assigned to a window before it closes (five years for a head coach/QB), in the end it's just a number. Rules like that -- which aren't even rules but rather correlations -- are made to be broken. I'm not saying it's going to happen, of course; I just don't put any stock in it.

I kept the pre-free agency era teams out of this because it was far easier to keep elite teams together and there was a lot less parity. The Cowboys made it 17 out of 18 years between 1966 and 1983, and the one year the didn't make it they were 8-8 and led the league in yardage while finishing 4th in defense. The 1980s-mid 1990s 49ers were the same - missing it in 1991 with a 10-6 season in which they were 3rd in offense and 6th in D. As for that Bills team, it's true, but their late-season collapse in 1987 when they were one of the most talented teams in the league was pretty bad. And while they made the playoffs in 1989, there was a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth about their performance that year (9-7 and the year of the bickering Bills).

In looking at the trajectories of other reliably good teams with franchise quarterbacks over long stretches of time (and excluding the Brady-led Patriots, who are a complete outlier), you can see that there are 1-to-2 year troughs for all of them. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/ Over 17 seasons with Roethlisberger, the Steelers had four 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. They missed the playoffs all six times but made it the other 11 times. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/ Over 15 seasons with Brees, the Saints had five 7-9 seasons and an 8-8 season; they made the playoffs 9 out of 15 times. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/ Over 15 seasons with Rogers, GB had a 7-9 season, a 6-9-1 season, an 8-9 season, and a 6-10 season (the last one to be fair was Rogers' first as a starter). They made the playoffs 11 out of 15 seasons. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/ In ten seasons with Russell Wilson, the Seahawks made the playoffs 8 times; they had a 9-7 season in which they didn't make it and a 7-10 season too (Wilson's final one). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/ In 11 seasons with Flacco (not the greatest QB, I know, but the team was always pretty deep in talent and had an excellent coach in Harbaugh), the Ravens made the playoffs 7 times; the times they didn't their records were 8-8, 8-8, 9-7, and 5-11. The Eagles under Andy Reid (with mostly McNabb but Vick too) missed the playoffs in 4 out of 14 seasons. The Colts with Manning made the playoffs 11 out of 12 seasons from 1999-2010; they missed it in 2001 with a very down 6-10 season (they year that Mora issued his "playoffs?!?" comment). They made it back in 2002 as a WC but lost 41-0 in the first round to the Jets. Point is, over long stretches, there are generally always "trough years" for franchise-QB teams who win a lot more than they lose. In an actuarial sense, it's to be expected. Not counting Allen's rookie season, the Bills have made it to the playoffs four years in a row. This year might well be one of those expected trough years, though. The stars simply haven't been aligned: they have an extremely difficult schedule, had the NFL assign them a "home" game that was really a road game, and suffered a bunch of injuries to elite players on their defense that probably cost them the game against NE. If there's one loss I can point to that may end up crippling the Bills, it's the divisional loss to a terrible Pats team where an undermanned defense was completely overwhelmed, allowing one of the worst QBs in the league to put up elite numbers. That's the loss that sticks with me. I never expected them to beat Cincy, so I can live with that loss.