My view about turnovers is as follows: do they result in points for one side or the other? (Points-off-of-turnover differential is one of the "king" stats in the NFL.) If so, they really matter. If the turnover happens between one's own 45 yard line and the opponent's 40, you can't really assume a score even if the team that forces the TO gets one. The defense can still make a stop, and the offense still has to put together a normal-ish dive. If you turn the ball over when you're in FG range, though, (the 20-25 yard lines for instance), the other side gets assigned 3 points off of turnovers by me (because you can't assume a TD). That doesn't show up in the points off turnover equation, but it should. The Pats didn't really get any points off of turnovers (in the classic sense) in that game because after the INT they started on the other side of the field. The Bills couldn't get a stop, but given the distance they had to travel to get the TD, it was a "real" TD drive and wasn't handed to them.