dave mcbride

You are absolutely right about that game. And over the years in the Rivers era it felt like they lost a dozen or so games they should have won because of kicking failures. In the Philly game this year - the one where Elliott kicked the 58 yarder in the wind and rain to tie the game — pat mcafee said before the game that all of bass’s practice kicks from 55 yards out in pre-game were falling 5-10 short of the goal post and that bills fans should not expect to see any long kicks. He is a PROBLEM.

When he was healthy in his first couple of seasons, he looked every bit as good as early years-OBJ and Mike Evans. In this game -- https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201601030buf.htm -- he essentially handed Revis Island precise directions to the proverbial glue factory. He was uncoverable in that game and was the best player on the field by a LOT. He cost the Jets the playoffs (along with a classic Fitzpick to Leodis in the EZ late in the 4th).

He actually had 11 TDs in his rookie season (two rushing TDs). He also had 956 yards from scrimmage in his second season because he had 14 carries for 96 yards (6.9 yards per rushing attempt). He was legit good in his first years, and in both of those seasons he had to share the ball with a lot of other high-volume targets: Diontae Johnson (both seasons), Ju Ju (2020), Najee Harris (2021), Ebron (2020), and Freiermuth (2021).

Excellent piece. Sorta confirms what I say above about playing in bad offenses with bad QBs setting him off, and not in a helpful way. Now he's playing with a bigger and better version of Roethlisberger, though.

My take on Claypool is that he might (emphasis on might) be one of those receivers who can’t stomach playing with bad quarterbacks who don’t know how to (or can’t) implement a passing game that’s reasonably sophisticated in design because they’re either not good processors or not good physical talents. Some people react very badly to incompetence at the top, and that might well be a Claypool trait. That makes them bad team players when the person at the top (the QB) isn’t good. However, we never heard anything like this about Claypool when Roethlisberger was the QB, and now Claypool is playing with a QB who is inarguably one of the 2-3 best in the NFL and the most physically talented to boot. Anyway, something to consider.

LOL! Never thought I'd see a Mark Arm reference on TBD. I saw them a few months ago in the West Village (Manhattan) and they were phenomenal.

He actually had 536 yards over the last 10 games, which averages out to 911 yards. One of those games was the Dallas game, where Allen only had 7 completions in a blowout win. I'd personally also factor in the two most important games - the playoffs. Not a lot of yardage but two TDs.

There is good drill-down info in this piece about why he hasn’t elevated his game yet three years in: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5524835/2024/05/29/trevor-lawrence-contract-jaguars-doug-pederson/

I'm not talking about mere stat lines - I'm talking about what saw on the field. He looked utterly helpless out there -- simply unable to cover anyone all game, beaten on every type of route (short, medium ...). Ridley had his way with him in terms of technique every time he lined against him. Basically, he didn't look like he knew how to play the position. By comparison, Mickey Washington looked like an all pro. Having said all of this, I do realize that the injury may well have been affecting him and honestly I haven't given up on him. He is a very good athlete with excellent length, so maybe the light goes on this year.

He was absolutely terrible in the Jax game in London - repeatedly spun around like a helpless top by Calvin Ridley in what was one of the worst single-game performances of a Bills CB I have ever seen. So it’s reasonable that the coaches had little faith in him. That said, he IS physically talented, and he seems bright enough. I am hoping for an Eric Moulds situation, where the light finally switches on in year three. But he has been a liability so far. Saying otherwise is whistling past the graveyard.

Dare I say it, but a reformed Claypool would be a huge addition. He was legit good early on.

I think the Jets might surprise people this year (the roster on paper is good) but it is the case that they've had only one winning season in the past 13 years.

I think the term you're looking for is "dog's breakfast": "A dog's breakfast is any kind of smorgasbord prepared, in haste or at random, from life's castoffs. In this case, it was the chicken bones and half-eaten pizzas of policies that the Administration had proposed earlier and Congress had rejected. . . . Cat people wouldn't understand, but anyone who has ever walked a dog down an alley would." https://www.nytimes.com/1993/03/07/magazine/on-language-dog-s-breakfast.html

Awesome call! Mach II FTW!!

I'm not judging it one way or another; just trying to find a reason for the interest, and this would seem to be one given his stated position on the final-game-of-the-season issue.

What does Bean keep saying now? Your last game shows who your players really are. The Bills' current stumbling block is getting out of the conference to the SB. MVS has played in three conference championship games: 2020: 4 catches for 115 yards and 1 TD 2022: 6 catches for 116 yards and 1 TD 2023: 2 catches for 38 yards but caught the game clinching 32 yarder with 2 minutes to go

This is just ignorant. As anyone who actually follows the Bills in any depth knows, Oliver was playing injured in that Bengals playoff game and was wearing a shoulder harness. If it wasn’t a playoff game, I doubt he would have played. Plus Daquon unfortunately got hurt in the final game of the regular season and was out. It literally amazes me year after year that fans who should know better (if they actually looked at injury reports, which is an open question) make these death-or-glory judgements about games without factoring in ininjury/personnel issues. The Bills have had terrible luck on that front the last couple of years.

DE/Edge (and defense more generally) is apparently supposed to be deep next year. Walter Football's way-too-early mock has 8 Edge players and 5 DTs going in the first round: https://walterfootball.com/draft2025.php. I sort of expect them to go DE.

My understanding is that Edmunds's void year(s) were the reason why it dropped from a third to a fourth. Bean said as much: https://sports.yahoo.com/brandon-beane-bills-got-raw-105923422.html.

I'll believe it when I see it. Has OTC calculated the effect of the cap increase over last year, which was very substantial (a 13.6 percent increase)? Factoring that in, Davis's AAV would have been $11.4 million last year, which is 63.6 percent of what Edmunds got (and with one less year). Even factoring in a void year for Edmunds (btw, do we know if Davis has a void year in his Jax contract?) his cap-adjusted AAV is only 79 percent of what Edmunds's AAV is assuming a (phantom) five-year deal for Edmunds. Anyway, I ain't counting on it.

Ha! My thinking exactly. That should never guide decision-making.

How are they getting a fourth for 3 years / $39 million when Edmunds's contract was vastly larger than that (four years / $72 million)? Plus Samuel is 3 years / $24 million. That'll offset Davis somewhat. I'm expecting a fifth at best for Davis.

It would seem to me that the difference between even elite tight ends and elite WRs (especially X receivers) is in ypr. There is the rare case of a Gronk averaging 14-16 yards per reception, but he's the best TE in NFL history (IMO) and a true unicorn: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GronRo00.htm. Kittle is the closest I can think of (13.6 lifetime). Most of the really good ones are in the 11-12 ypr range (Kelce is 12.5 lifetime, which is incredibly good for a TE; Tony Gonzalez is 11.4 and Jay Novacek 11.0). Most are below that, even the good ones (Hockenson is 10.4, for instance). Conversely, Mike Evans is lifetime 15.3, meaning he gives you deep threat capability that really opens up an offense. That sort of productivity in ypr is unique the WR position, particularly the X role. WRs almost always lead the league in ypr. Last year, 43 of the top 44 players in ypr were receivers: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving.htm#receiving::rec_yds_per_rec. Kittle was the lone TE, finishing 12th. Point is, they are different positions with different types of productivity, and having a deep threat is really helpful to an offense. Most TEs aren't deep threats, and as of now the Bills don't have a real deep threat because none of their receivers fit the role. Maybe Coleman will be that guy, but he's a little slow. So I'm skeptical. Hope I'm proven wrong.