dave mcbride

The Bills scored 14 points at home last week against an average defense. That's actually not impressive.

The Bills might be prepared, though, and here's why. Patricia did the ol' Belichick thing last week, playing shallow zone all day with his mid-level defenders to prevent Allen runs. It worked, and in impressive fashion. There were no run lanes for Allen, and the Bills' offense was somewhat anemic overall. It was a good lesson for Allen, and he may well be more prepared this week. No, the blueprint regarding his run ability was created last week, and it was having coverage LBs and dime defenders playing shallow zone 7-10 yards off the LOS.

That story is incredible. What a debacle for Norwood that day.

Meh - La Cosa Polianostra is basically the Tattaglias to Parcells/Belichick/Saban's Corleones.

For a while now, when I think of Zay Jones, I think of this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Van_Dyke. I remember when he was drafted by the Jets as the first pick of the second round. Teams were high on him because of elite college production (he led the country in receptions and receiving yards), but the knock on him was the measurables: speed/quickness/leaping ability. We're re-living that episode, I fear.

I think you're way off about Daboll. If you can point to poorly called games, go for it. He calls good games, full stop, but as you know, you can't make silk from a sow's ear. Now that they've moved the faster guys into the WR spots, the offense looks a LOT different. I'm a stats guy, but stats aren't indicative at all of his performance in this instance. And, by the way, Daboll is Belichick guy more than anything else - not a Polian person. His first job was with Saban at Michigan State (and Saban worked under Belichick in Cleveland before that), and he joined Belichick in NE in his first year there (2000). Calling him part of the Polian mob is factually wrong.

From his wikipedia page: "At Tampa Bay Technical High School in Tampa, Washington was a four-sport standout in football, track, baseball, and wrestling. As a senior, he was the Florida State Wrestling champion in the unlimited weight class." "The unlimited weight class" -- I love it! I certainly wouldn't have wanted to wrestle that guy.

D-line ain't for choirboys. A lot of those guys are nuts. He was a helluva player.

Ted Washington is one of the most dominant defensive players the Bills have ever had.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/12/17/report-steve-wilks-firing-seems-a-foregone-conclusion/

Like Bandit, I'm a Daboll fan. I can't think of a game where I've been questioning the playcalling repeatedly. It generally makes sense. I can't say the same about Dennison at all.

I don't think he has a rag arm. It's below average, to be sure. The same thing has always been said about Colt McCoy (rag arm), who is a great backup.

If you think McCown has had anything but a below-average arm these past five seasons, I don't know what to tell you. The guy is ancient but a decent backup nonetheless. (I'm not talking about the McCown of 2002, by the way; I'm talking about the guy we've repeatedly faced in recent years.) Orton actually has better career stats than Fitz. He was 42-40 as a starter; Fitz is 50-75. Orton also has a higher career passer rating, but only by a tenth of a point. Fitz has been goosing his rating stats these last few years, though; the new passing rules help.

PS - I do realize that Bills' fans have been spoiled by Kyle Orton, who is arguably the Platonic ideal of a backup QB - starter level arm strength, smarts, proven ability to win at a .500 level, and a proven ability to walk in off the proverbial street and scratch out a victory. We'll probably never see his likes again.

I fundamentally disagree with you because I've seen him play for other teams too. He has a better arm than Leinart even though it isn't great. His arm is no worse than McCown's. I guarantee you that. What he did against a fairly talented Jets D should register with you. He had just signed a few days before, and he ran the offense very capably (i.e., smarts and solid accuracy). He had a couple of off throws, but that's to be expected. It was the Bills' best offensive performance in terms of yardage accumulated since late 2016, and he was fresh from the street, operating with subpar talent around him, and playing on the road. Peterman just sucks irrespective of arm strength. He shouldn't even be in the conversation not just because of that, but because he hasn't hung around long enough to have learned the pro game (as Barkely has done). That is, he doesn't qualify in this conversation. If he hangs on for 5+ years, he will.

Welcome to the world of career backups in the NFL. This is who they are, and if you're going to have one, you want the guy who is smarter and more accurate than the others. They're not going to have great arms, and if one does happen to have a strong arm, all it tells you is that he was an abject failure as a starter and can't manage a game to save his life. Hello, Brandon Weeden and Ryan Mallett. I'll take Barkley over Weeden and Mallett ANY day of the week.

It's kinda like wins for starting pitchers - kinda useless, but at the same time, if a guy is winning close to 20 games year and year out, then you can assume he's probably pretty good.

I thought he was fine - a Josh McCown/Colt McCoy in waiting. He's better than the Blaine Gabberts, Todd Collinses, and Matt Cassels of the world. As I've said countless times, you simply want a guy who can run the offense well, be able to make most throws, and get you to 2-2 over a 4-game stretch. He's perfectly fine as a career backup. Would I take him over Glennon? Probably. I would also probably take him over Fitz, who is clearly better, because if Fitz is on your team, he WILL become the starter at some point. That outcome -- wherever he plays -- has been foreordained by the football gods.

Since the old QB rating stat is the essential source for passer rating differential (the only additional element is sack yardage), I still disagree with you. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/10/30/the-mother-of-all-stats-is-high-on-the-chiefs-but-not-the-patriots/?utm_term=.2bf8cdd86a3e

Why is he a terrible backup? What is your evidence? By all accounts he played well for Cincy in preseason. Successful backups tend to be guys who've been around the block and have had time to learn the pro game. He seems to be at that point now. No one is saying he's a starter.

Team passer rating differential is arguably the most predictive stat in all of major team sports when it comes to team success and failure, and the evidence is fairly overwhelming. I therefore disagree with you, albeit with a caveat: differential isn't the same as an individual qb's passer rating, and unlike differential, sack yards taken aren't factored into individual qb rating.

I thought this was a good take on Aaron Rodgers: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/12/17/aaron-rodgers-avoids-interceptions-but-he-leads-the-nfl-in-bad-plays/

He played well in the preseason for Cincy and got hurt at the end of it. That's why he wasn't kept and had to wait to sign. He's an ideal backup.

"With 7:04 left in a game few people were paying attention to on Sunday, the Cardinals pulled struggling rookie Josh Rosen in favor of veteran journeyman Mike Glennon. At that point the Falcons had outscored the Cardinals 40-7, outgained them 428-148 and outclassed them in every way. And as you might expect, that’ll lead to bigger questions in Arizona over the next two weeks. Here’s what I know: Arizona has looked ahead already to making changes to the offensive staff to try to spark Rosen’s development, in a way that neither coordinator Byron Leftwich nor his predecessor, Mike McCoy, could. Here’s what I think: Based on the churn of the NFL rumor mill, changes might include the head coach, Steve Wilks. Sending a coach packing after a single year is tough. But seven of the Cardinals’ 11 losses have come by double-digits, and a garbage-time touchdown drive engineered by Glennon was the only thing that saved Arizona from suffering its fourth 30-point loss of the year." https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/12/17/nfl-playoff-scenarios-browns-baker-mayfield-ravens-lamar-jackson-eagles-nick-foles-steelers-patriots

Jones’ inability to separate today was on display, and the Bills caught a break on that PI call against Slay (a good player). That looked like good D to me, and the one before it that wasn’t called would have been really marginal too. The reason these plays happen is because he really struggles to get open. He doesn’t look explosive enough out there.