dave mcbride

Podesta has always been the real moneyball guy in Cleveland. He hasn't lost any juice there.

Good post. I think Foster is a player who has the potential to be quite good, but they need a stud *and* a real #3 because Jones looks very low-ceiling to me. I suspect a decent #3 can be found in FA or, say, the 3rd-4th round. I wouldn't hitch my wagon to Jones after what I've seen, but perhaps he continues to improve. Foster appears to be better than what you're pegging him at here. He gets open, he has good hands, and he can blow by good CBs.

That's changing, as the piece indicates. There is of course recognition of the crazy number of variables in any given football play in comparison to other sports.

I recommend reading the piece in full. As for baseball, the teams that aren't analytics-driven are the bad ones.

Have at it. It's a fascinating article. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/19/18148153/nfl-analytics-revolution

I actually do realize how many other receivers make that play, and it is precisely zero. I have to ask: have you ever played a sport in which the ball gets lost in the sun? I ask that seriously. I suspect you have never tried to make a catch in either baseball or football in which the sun got in your eyes and blinded you. If you had, you would never say something this ignorant. I'm not saying it wasn't a great pass; it was. It is just another example of a lack of attention to detail that plagues the franchise. The route should have been saved for later, when the sun wouldn't be an issue. The announcers were even talking about the players demonstrating concerns about the sun's placement in the sky prior to the game during warmups.

The ball to Foster *couldn’t* have been caught. He couldn’t see it because of the sun. If you can’t see it, you can’t catch it.

This. I think what's driving the criticism of Thomas on that play is that the Bills NEVER make high-difficulty catches. It's frustrating. If they made a few more, I think people would have categorized that one as "tough catch to make, move onto the next play." All the same, Allen is a bad touch passer right now and he has to understand that rifling it in is going to result in an inordinate number of incompletions regardless of the accuracy.

Great post. Speed is so important. We need more of it.

See my qualification above. Address the other difficulty and velocity issues. Those are real things that manifested on that play.

Look, that's in the realm of catchable, but it's in the fingertip region, he's leaping, the coverage is perfect, he's on the sideline, and the ball was thrown extremely hard. An elite receiver catches it 60 percent of the time, i think (although factor in Allen's velocity), and average receivers catch it less than half. The bottom line is that it's not an easy catch. And yes the Bills' receivers suck. I know that. But Allen has touch and accuracy issues at present that he needs to fix too. Again, though, i'm not saying that's a bad throw. Give the defender--who would have had a chance to swat it, a la leigh bodden, if he had hung on--some credit. He was in perfect position.

It wasn't right through his hands; it was on his fingertips. Big difference. The high pass that Gronk missed and which ended up as a pick was a pass that went right through the hands,

I'd qualify that further and say that while he has some bad games, his most notable tendency is to come up big in big games. Bear in mind that he played really well in that playoff game they lost to NO on the last second in 2013.

26 - Even you must be coming around to the idea that Foles is actually pretty damn good, right? That was a helluva show yesterday by him against a good team.

If you think, Whaley was responsible for drafting Zay Jones, I have some news. He wasn't.

Their offense is terrible. Like, really terrible. Ours is bad too, I know. You do realize that Larry Fitzgerald is running a 4.8-4.9 40 now, right? If the qb runs it, in, it's a td for him.

That is an extremely tough catch. Come on! It wasn't a bad throw because Thomas was blanketed, and that's the only place you can put it (alert: I am not blaming Allen). But that's a pass that's usually not caught. Coverage is huge too in that sort of situation. Give some credit to the defender, who was in position to swat at it in the unlikely the event he made that very difficult catch.

Foster didn't drop it. It was a completely uncatchable ball yet also a perfect throw. Both things can be true. That's not fair to the Bills. The Colts have made it very clear that they were not willning to drop below 6th because they were dead set on getting Nelson, who appears to be completely worth that pick. He is a stud. The Bills didn't have enough ammo. They wanted to get to 3, but you need a trade partner. The Jets had what they wanted; we didn't. I think Darnold is fun to watch myself. He makes nice plays outside the pocket consistently.

I would have preferred him, and I think that the Bills did too. They pretty clearly really liked him before the draft, but they didn’t have the ammo to move up. I was fine with Allen given that he was the best option left and the physical talent level staggering. He’s a worthy top ten pick. Rosen worried me. Of the top four, they’re basically playing to their draft order. Yes, playing in foxboro is historically brutal for any rookie. I know it’s just one game, and the bills were thoroughly outcoached in every area.

In the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. Yes, the Bills’ offensive talent is a joke. I do think Foster could start for the Jets, though. He appears to be a player.

He made a ton of bad throws today. I watch a lot of other teams, and he throws an inordinate number of uncatchable balls. He has to fix it. Yes, he can make perfect throws that will wow you (like the unfortunately uncatchable ball to Foster that the sun blocked his vision from), but being a good nfl qb is about consistency in ball placement. Both of those throws to the ez were not well placed, although I know he’s capable of it (ie, his great back shoulder throw to Jones in the Miami game on the second last play). Too many here are getting into the bunker and refusing to accept criticism of him, and they absolve him by blaming the crappy talent around him. I agree that the WR corps is awful except for Foster, who I think has the chance to be good. But Allen needs to be better too. He needs to display the consistency with accuracy and the touch (hugely important) that Darnold has been showing lately if he is going to move up to the next level.

Agreed. The Jets’ offensive talent IS better than Buffalo’s, but it’s still basically terrible. Anderson is a nice player; the rest are basically JAGs and trash.

Actually, I don’t if you read my posting history. I think he has tons of upside and sky-is-the-limit talent. I’m on board with him. He’s not nearly accurate enough right now, though. Yes, he needs better receivers, but he makes a lot of poor throws — more as a percentage than the average nfl qb — that simply aren’t well placed.

At this point in time, Darnold is clearly better. He is showing a ton of progress. It is still way too early to tell, but Darnold is just more accurate and has way better touch.

Oh please. Those were bad throws. These are not good hills to die on.