dave mcbride

I do agree with you that the Dareus situation was pretty untenable and that he probably had to go. There's stuff that happens behind the scenes that none of us are privy too. Sure, we find out when an o-lineman goes nuts, runs naked over an electric fence, and draws police attention, but there are a lot of crazy people in the NFL who do stupid sh*t, and we don't hear about all of them. Not even close. That lurks behind all of these conversations.

It's really hard to make ANY assessments of Dareus's performance in those four games in 2012. One of those games was a biannual beat-down by the Pats in which DT Keith Williams (who?????) played 77 percent of the snaps. The second was a game in which Alex Smith absolutely shredded the secondary and Greg Roman thoroughly outcoached Wannstedt. The third saw Kevin Kolb rush 5 times for 66 yards, padding the rush stats. Even still, the Cardinals offense didn't do much, scoring only 16 points in a game that went into OT. The final one saw Chris Johnson break an 83 yard TD run, which totally skews the stats, and as it pertains to the d-line, they have no control over anything 10 yards past the LOS. (That game also featured one of Fitzpatrick's worst late-game ill-advised INTs, and as you'll recall George Wilson dropped an easy INT which would have sealed the game with a minute to go.) Most importantly, it's really impossible to deduce how bad he was or whether his presence or absence had much of an effect overall given that a defense consists of 11 moving parts. That defense was bad overall (27th in defensive DVOA), the LBs were awful (Bryan Scott, Kelvin Sheppard, Nick Barnett, a young Arthur Moats, and a rookie Nigel Bradham) and they had stone age-level coordination on top of that. The first two teams they faced in this sequence were super bowl caliber too. As for Dareus's play in those games, I have zero recollection of how he played, and I'd venture to guess that no one else here does either.

They address this issue in the piece and say that it's part of their own evaluation process now.

I agree with most here that we definitely shouldn't leap to ANY conclusions at this point, but one thing that is stuck in my memory is the 2009 Pro Football Weekly report about pre-full training camp sessions in Buffalo, and the writer said that Aaron Maybin looked awful against NFL competition and could be a problem going forward. People on this board predictably ripped the PFW writer, but he turned out to be perceptive.

A few nuggets amidst a lot of interesting info: Levi Wallace’s high upside going into this season coverage ability is more important to a pass defense than pressure RT is as important as LT and should be paid as such https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/06/17/pro-football-focus-nfl-analytics-fmia-guest/

Prescott is a really good qb. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01.htm

I did say run blocking. This analysis focuses a lot on pass blocking.

He actually looked as dynamic as ever on receiving plays. I don't think people really realize yet how bad the Bills' run blocking was last season. It was historically awful - the worst I've ever seen in my years of watching the Bills going back to around 1973. You are WAY, WAY off here. The Bills' line play on running plays was the worst I've ever seen by a Buffalo unit, and that encompasses a lot of bad teams over the decades. Anyone who thinks the Bills had better run blocking than Miami last season wasn't watching football.

Zay Jones was not good last season, and when Watkins played, he was infinitely more of a threat and a better player than Jones (e.g., the playoff game vs. NE). It's not even remotely close, and yes I realize he gets hurt too much. Regarding Jones's numbers, bear in mind that the very worst NBA teams in history average at least 80 points a game. Someone has to score the points, just as for the worst NFL defense, someone has to make the tackles. Who else did the QBs have to throw to before Foster became a threat? Benjamin was an utter joke and couldn't even run a route properly, and Clay was terrible last season. Jones was the only credible receiver on the team. With regard to Jones last season, stats don't come close to telling the story. He scares no one, struggled all season to beat press coverage, and isn't explosive enough to outrun DBs and take it to the house. Plus he still struggled catching the ball, although his hands are average by NFL standards and I don't want to criticize him too much for that. Having said all of this, he has a ceiling of "average contributor," which is something. You need those guys because it's all too easy to end up with below-average offensive contributors (as Bills fans know all too well from last season). If he stays healthy and progresses, he can be a poor man's Robert Woods. That's not a great outcome, but it's not terrible. I suspect he's gone after year 4 anyway. My concern all along is that he's Alex Van D y k e redux, another early second rounder with mediocre athleticism who set a record for catches in college against weak competition.

I see your point. As a fan, though, I do think about the necessity of getting production in the early years given the current system, not because I feel a need to assign draft grades two years out. More knowledgeable fans get it, and you're of course one of them.

I usually agree with you Bandit, but Zay Jones was not good last year. In fact, I thought he mostly stunk. Sure, he got some vulture TDs in garbage time and the occasional blown coverage TD, but he's too slow, struggled to catch the ball, and wracked up his numbers because in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. In other words, he was a better option than Kelvin Benjamin, but that doesn't mean he was good. EDIT: I'm not saying he can't improve, and he did make a nice TD catch against Houston (on a perfect throw by none other than Peterman). But one standout play isn't enough.

I'd say that that everyone picked after the first round can be gone after four years, and most players WILL test the market if allowed (they'd be foolish not to do so), so you better get some production out of them in those four years. Just as importantly, for first rounders, by the end of year three, a team HAS to know if the fifth year option is worth the gamble, and they can only know that judging from the production of the first three years. The Bills made huge financial decisions about Lawson and Watkins based on their production in years 1-3, and not just year 3. That's not how it was in the days of yore by a long stretch. In short, everything has changed, and it has little to to do with a news cycle.

Strategy: Punting from the opponent's 32 yard line on 4th and 2 when down 17-7 early in the second half vs. an offensive juggernaut. Culture: "We need to decide whether Crabtree wants to be a fake-ass prima donna or he wants to be a tough guy. We need to find that out. He becomes human when we (expletive) take out that outside ACL." Also: "Every single one of you, before you get off the pile, affect the head,. Early, affect the head. Continue, touch and hit the head." Very, very tough choice.

I "laughed" at this one because it was funny, but of course the appropriate response is the "confused" emoji with the bugged-out eyes.

It was the 32 yard line, actually, and they only needed 2 yards for the first down: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200211030buf.htm. It's the first series of the third quarter.

He was 6-5 in NY and the team cratered after Dan Marino's fake spike. With regard to NE, he took over an 11-5 team that had gone 6-10 the year before. More importantly, his QB was Drew Bledsoe, probably the most overrated big-name QB in NFL history.

The other thing is that whether it's deserved or not, Beane and McDermott have a lot respect around the league and are well-liked. The Pegulas are followers and not mavericks in these matters, and my guess is that they won't regard getting rid of these two as a good look. Hence they won't get rid of them if they go 6-10 this season. I don't think any of their firees in the Sabres organization or Rex/Whaley are remotely comparable to Beane/McDermott.

? - "Williamsville North" and "meathead" are not things I'd associate with each other. The meathead left before his senior year anyway for a true meathead (i.e., D1 jock factory) in the Pittsburgh area.

Carroll and Vermeil were highly successful college coaches. Carroll also took teams to the playoffs in both his second and third NFL coaching seasons (in NE).

Just looked it up - if you include playoff games, Brady is the all-time passing yardage leader, ahead of Manning, Brees, and Favre. He has played in 40 postseason games — 2.5 extra seasons of extremely high intensity games.

... and I give you that Jeff Wright failure play. It was third and 3 to go, not 3rd and goal, but it should have been a two yard loss. If Ted Washington had been there, Smith would have been planted in the ground. Wright was such a weak NT. It's amazing the defense did as well as it did (not that it was great) given the relative void in the center of the d-line. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpC8Z-oGd4c

He had a reported fever of 104 degrees that day. For a big person, that is extremely high. Have you ever had the flu, as in the *real* flu (not just a bad cold)? It is completely incapacitating and can be an extremely serious illness. If you really have influenza, you are in no condition to play in an NFL playoff game. It's not even debatable.

White had an additional 23.5 sacks in his two seasons in the USFL. He initially chose the USFL for the most obvious reason: they paid him more.

I totally disagree. I distinctly remember Michael Irvin coming off the field at halftime and saying this to the on-field reporter about the Bills: "wow, these boys came to play." What happened in the second half was a mix of bad plays by players and the Cowboys' massive structural advantage in talent. Nothing more, nothing less. As for motivation, they were as intense and focused as I've ever seen them in that game.

I totally disagree about the 4th Super Bowl (also @K-9), which I think was actually one of his best coaching efforts. That Cowboys team was a LOT better than the Bills, and Kelly was already in decline (he was never the same after rupturing his bursa sac midway through 1992). The Bills genuinely had a really good plan - a short, high completion-rate passing attack that allowed them to control the first half against an opponent with far superior talent, and a defensive scheme that took away big plays. Plus their two best defensive players that season - Bruce Smith and Nate Odomes - really showed up in that first half. They opened the second half by successfully running the ball down the Cowboys' throats on the first three plays, and then Kent Hull got absolutely embarrassed by Leon Lett, leading to a Thomas fumble. The thing that galls me about that play is that he literally fumbled into the middle of a massive scrum near midfield, and James Washington returned it for a TD. That hardly ever happens. Next, the Cowboys began exploiting the Bills' talent deficiency. On their next drive, they ran right at Phil Hanson (and away from Bruce Smith) 11 out of 13 plays, and Erik Williams buried him on virtually every play. It was sad to watch. Then, on third and goal, Jeff Wright actually gets into the backfield with a clear shot to wrap Emmitt Smith up for a loss, and just ... fails. Epically. Smith tossed him aside like a rag doll and ran in for the score. It should have been 16-13, but instead it was 20-13 and panic set in. The Bills couldn't move the ball, and Kelly eventually forced a pass into triple coverage near mid-field (while the game was still in reach) and it was of course picked off by James Washington. It was a terrible decision by him. Anyway, the Bills had a very good plan, but very bad plays by individual players - not bad decisions by coaches - plus a deficiency in talent that eventually manifested itself (as it almost always does) led to the loss. Don't blame Marv for that one. The previous (third) loss was signficantly worse on the coaching front, and while I could get into the details, I won't. One other thing: it was outrageous that Washington didn't win MVP. He had two fumble recoveries, a pick, and returned a fumble for a TD.