dave mcbride

The *one* thing the TN defense could do that season was sack the qb (54 sacks). Combine that with the fact that there isn't a qb in NFL history who has been sacked at a higher rate than Rob Johnson, and you get a truly unholy marriage. But don't take it from me; take it from Wade Phillips, who had no desire to start Johnson (who sucked his entire career and was a huge disappointment at SC given the ridiculous talent around him). As for Flutie, he had played well in his previous two games - against AZ and against NE in a howling rainstorm. As for the Giants game, if either Thurman or Jonathan Linton can actually get a measly yard on 3rd and then 4th down in NYG territory with just over two minutes to go, the game would have been over. But they didn't, and the Bills couldn't stop Kerry Collins from marching down the field to set up the game winning FG. Anyway, Johnson sucked, and while Flutie had flaws in his game, he was, without question, a better player.

Nor would he have been sacked 6 times and thrown for under 125 yards against a pass D that ranked 25th in passing yards allowed and 27th in passing TDs allowed.

A guaranteed number that is 50 percent greater is actually quite significant. Money per year is not a good measure; if Cooks is a middling player after year 3, he'll never see the conditionally promised money in years 4 and 5. If he remains elite or near-elite, he'll likely see it, but his salary won't be adjusted to reflect the changed cap situation. If Watkins is elite after year 3, he'll see a lot more money than Cooks in years 4 and 5 because the salary cap will go up significantly. It is actually quite arguable that Watkins got the better deal, but that's of course contingent on him performing. If he does, he'll be a FA at age 28 and in line for a big 3-year contract that'll probably pay him 20-25 million per (with a lot of the new money guaranteed) assuming the current annual rate of increase in the cap number. It's a "prove it" league, of course, but the players who do prove it are often better off with a 3-year deal than a 5-year deal, especially if the 3-year deal has a bigger guarantee. I'm surprised more people can't see this.

That is 100 percent correct. Shady has been a good citizen and McDermott is a fan of his. Note that McCoy is often the public face of the team too; it was him who was being quoted yesterday on Josh Allen's progress.

Here it is: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/06/17/pro-football-focus-nfl-analytics-fmia-guest/. Relevant passage (and as per the advice to teams at the end, note that this is EXACTLY what Beane did this offseason): Coverage is more important than pass rush, all else being equal Analytics have a way of upsetting your sensibilities and upending some preconceived notions. Growing up, we’ve been conditioned to believe that pass rush is critical. And for good reason—pressure reduces passer rating substantially (by about 30 points) and nearly halves a team’s yards per play average. And we can see from the broadcast angle when pressure affects a quarterback. Because passing is so important, good pass-rushers have been the highest-paid members of most NFL’s defenses. However, we found that not only does pass coverage (as measured by PFF grades) explain team success better than pass-rushing, but predicts it better as well. This helps explain why the winningest team in the league (New England) has used its only two big-name defensive free-agent signings on cornerbacks over the past decade (Stephon Gilmore and Darrelle Revis), and why defensive end Trey Flowers is currently a Detroit Lion. One need only to go back to last year’s playoffs to see how the quick passing game of today’s NFL mitigates even the strongest pass rush, with the Patriots racking up 78 points en route to the Super Bowl despite facing the vaunted pass rushers on the Chargers and Chiefs. The caveat to this finding? As a trait, coverage tends to be less stable year to year. The upshot? Invest a lot into coverage, so that some subset of five or six of these players give you an elite group.

Read the PFF-written story in last week's FMIA column. Good teams view coverage as more important than pass rush, and the Bills are excellent in coverage. They have actually gotten better on paper since then, which is a credit to Beane. Notably, the Bears and Patriots had fantastic coverage units last year. yes, it's not very good. The top three had the same order for defensive team passer rating, but Jax was sixth (Minnesota was 4th and Cleveland 5th).

My favorite single stat is collective opposing team passer rating.

They were second in DVOA, which IS regarded as a good measure. DVOA, which is MUCH more indicative than either raw points or yards. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef if you’re interested, reado FO’s explainer.

Let's see what he does this year. I'm not passing judgment yet. I won't be shocked if he gets hurt again, but I also won't be shocked if he puts up 1400+ yards and 12 TDs.

That's a fair point, but my issue with Jones up to this point hasn't been injury but his modest physical talent and his tendency to not make plays in clutch situations (first Miami loss last season when he dropped a pass at the 8 that would have given the Bills a first down in the final minute; the bad route he ran vs. Carolina that cost the Bills the game in 2017). He could get better, of course, and if the spring reports are to be believed, he's setting himself up for a decent-to-good season. I don't see him as ever being a #1 (which is OK; he wasn't a first round pick), but Watkins has that potential because of his natural ability.

To be fair to Watkins, he played 9 games plus a very short portion of a 10th game (against Denver the first time KC played them; he had a hamstring issue and came out of the game in the first quarter). Prorated, he was actually on pace for 70 receptions, 910 yards and 5 TDs. Also, if you sub in the numbers from the two playoff games in lieu of two missed games and pro-rate it (which I think you should -- playoff games are the most important games involving the highest stakes and the toughest competition), his pro-rated 16 game-season numbers were 72 receptions, exactly 1,000 yards, and 5 TDs. Either way, he was on pace for for more than 60 receptions and 750 yards. I do realize he gets hurt too much, but anyone watching a healthy Sammy play vs. NE in the AFC championship game could see the lights-out talent on display. He was great in that game, and anyone who denies that wasn't watching. If he stays healthy -- and yeah, I know it's a huge if given past history -- he may well have a dominant season given the quality of the QB and the absence of Hill. He is still young, remember. He turned 26 just 12 days ago, and his huge physical talent and receiving skills are readily evident to those with eyes. Anyway, the book on him hasn't come close to being completed yet.

I think this is probably correct.

Aha. OK. That explains it.

Wow. That is unbelievable. Just goes to show that the injury stuff that we don't find out about in the run-up to the draft is so important. What's wrong with the Bengals? Shades of Rex and Shaq Lawson!

No argument from me! I thought the defense was really good. Bear in mind that our offense was 26th in TOP. That matters too. Not really. Opposing QBs had a collective passer rating of 82.6 vs the Bills (very low), which made them the third best pass defense in the league after the Bears and the Ravens. The reason their pass defense numbers were good is because they actually had a really good pass defense. Nothing more and nothing less.

I don't think playcalling selection correlates with intensity. That game was a complete joke by halftime, and the Chargers knew it. They were first in yards per drive allowed and first in plays per drive allowed. They were 32nd in drive start, which means that against the Bills, opposing offenses had the shortest fields to traverse in the entire league. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2018.htm.

The blowout situation was terrible last season. In the first 9 games, they were basically blown out 6 times (the Chargers game was a blowout despite the final 31-20 score; the Chargers were up 28-3 and the rest was garbage time). That was about as bad as I've ever seen the Bills. That said, they didn't suffer any true blowout losses in their final 7 games, although I wouldn't argue with anyone who said their final 24-12 loss to the Pats was a blowout. They score in the final seconds to make it look reasonably respectable, but they were steamrolled in that game.

He absolutely had 10 in 2014. There was a misattribution of a sack in the final game against the Pats, but the official scorers ultimately (and correctly) credited him with the half-sack (he was the lead guy on the sack). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HughJe99.htm and http://www.nfl.com/player/jerryhughes/496796/profile. ESPN is wrong. Here's the box score: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201412280nwe.htm.

This is correct. The Bills' Pythagorean record last year (as per PFR) was 5.0-11.0. They were basically worse than their record.

I get that, but at the margins points scored and allowed depends to an extent on field position starts, ST play, turnovers given up or causes by the other unit, etc. And then there’s strength of schedule — not every team is lucky enough to be the Patriots and get an automatic 6 games against perpetually inferior organizations. DVOA does a good job of washing away all that noise, which is why I like it.

I thnk that’s right up to a point, but I also think that a larger percentage of parents now than in the past see sports as a ticket to their kid’s life success, and they plan and shape accordingly. It has always been bad, but I do think it IS crazier now. After a decade of travel/high school baseball In which I saw a small handful of my son’s teammates and friends end up at good programs (Duke, West Virginia, Pitt, Cornell, William and Mary), I’ve sorta lived this. The vast majority did not, and even the ones who made it aren’t going to make any money playing MLB. That said, almost all of the kids were all nice and the vast majority of the parents were terrific people. This is just me, but I didn’t see much in the way of burnout. Overall, it was a very good experience, and focusing mostly on one sport where he could hone his craft was good for him. Anyway, what this article is describing is it’s a real thing, but it’s hardly a red-alert crisis.

Great story. Thanks for posting.

What’s with the hyperbole? They were bad but not the worst. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef Scoring? Focus on DVOA. Fourth.

?? KC’s 2017 offense was 4th in offensive DVOA, 6th in points, and 5th in yards. You can’t cherry pick one game — and the Bills game no less (homer goggles alert!) — and conflate it with an entire season. They had a near-elite offense overall that year.

I know what he did, but it’s football (a very rough sport), and White had been successfully holding him and roughing him all game without getting called for it (which I was happy about). He just lost his cool. Not right, I know. Oh lord. He wan’t trying to cripple anyone. This is ridiculous.