Estro

I have the same "gut" feeling. Someone mentioned his twitter account stated it's been an exciting day and he'd announce the news later today. Let's hope it's a resigning and not a tender. I'd rather retain Wilson, under a market deal, than Whitner, under what he feels is his market. I believe Wilson could be extended for 4 years - $16 million, with about half of that guarenteed. That's a lot less than Donte is looking for which I believe is in excess of $7 mill. a year.

Most people seem to think these designations will not hold up once a new CBA is agreed upon. None the less it is smart for front offices to protect their assets as best they can under the current rules, and as of now these designations are allowed. Just wish George Wilson was on that list.

I guess we found out the answer to my question last week. Whitner can be retained with the RFA designation, whether or not it holds up once a new CBA is agreed upon is questionable. The biggest surprise for me is not to see George Wilson on that list. According to Chris Brown, G. Wilson has the same number of accrued seasons as Whitner so I believe he should be eligible for the RFA designation. This could mean one of two things: The Bills don't plan on retaining George Wilson or they are working on a long term deal. I'm hoping it's the latter, because I think Wilson is a valuable piece to the secondary and at the worst provides quality depth. I hope he is retained.

A nice draft, although I'm not a big fan of Von's. There is a chance Paea is there for us because of his recent knee injury. I assume you see him as a 3-4 DE because I believe he's a bit undersized to play NT. Not a huge fan of Kapernick, and need to look into Stocker more. I'm not sure Gailey values TE's in his offense that much, but who knows. I really like the 2 4th round picks, but I think it's unrealistic to believe either will be there in round 4. I think Casey Matthews can be a starting ILB in the 3-4, he is a bit undersized though. I see him as a late 2nd to 3rd round pick. Moffitt is one of the better guards in this draft, and probably won't escape the 2nd round, especially for a playoff caliber team looking to solidify the inside of their line (Colts, Steelers, Falcons, Patriots, Packers).

You make some good points. If the Bills believe they can get their franchise guy at #3 this year, then go ahead and pull the trigger. I'm not 100% sold on Nix/Gailey, but I do have a lot of faith on their eye for talent. I especially trust Gailey to get the most out of any QB we choose. I just happen to believe that Gailey/Nix won't value Cam or Gabbert to take them with the #3 pick. If that is the case then your next chance to get a franchise QB is in the 2012 draft, so you should set yourself up in the best possible way to strike gold in 2012. If they're not sold on Cam or Gabbert and another team wants to trade up, they'd have a great chance to snag an additional 1st rounder for the 2012 draft. I don't care how old Gailey or Nix are, this team will not not be built overnight, and I'd be all for gaining an additional future 1st rounder to slide down 4-7 spots in this years draft. I didn't know Harbaugh recruited Gabbert, good call, maybe he has the talent, I just don't like what I saw at Missouri. He looks to panic as soon as there is any type of rush or pressure. I know Mayock highlighted a play where Gabbert kept his eyes downfield under pressure and delivered a TD pass. The problem is that was one play, when I watch his throws throughout an entire game I often see him duck and stare at the rush when faced with pressure, very Trent Edwards like. That's what scares me about Gabbert.

I too agree that there will be a 2011 season in some form or fashion. I disagree with your outlook that any team that ends up with the #1 pick will stay pat and select Luck. Luck will undoubtedly go #1, but there is a small chance the team at #1 has what they believe is their franchise guy. A team like the Rams (Bradford), Lions (Stafford), or the teams that select Gabbert and Newton (assuming they spend a high draft pick on them) could conceivably end up with the #1 pick. If that were to happen the last thing they would do is draft another QB at #1. It would require a ransom to get up there, but 2 high 1st round picks in the same draft plus say a 2nd rounder or a future 1st rounder could be convincing to a team that doesn't have a QB need. Chances aren't good, but the possibility remains. Like I said, I'm all in on Luck. I think he'll be a star in the NFL. I think the worst case scenario for Luck is he's a Matt Ryan like QB in the NFL, but to be honest I'd be dissapointed if that's all he became because I believe he could become great, and I don't believe Ryan is or ever will be great. I'd give up a ton to have him. Guys like Luck only come around once or twice a decade.

I agree with your thoughts 100%. A lot of people forget, if there is no 2011 season the Panthers will once again have the #1 pick, which in all likelihood would be Luck. This gives you the opportunity to take your #1 BPA in the draft, and then Luck next year. Suddenly, the Panthers franchise has a lot of hope. I know you can't bank on having no season, but if by late April things still look bleak I don't think Carolina will be selecting any QB at #1. I hope they do, so they're out of the Luck sweepstakes next year, but I can't see it happening. Best case scenario, is Cam goes #1 to the Panthers, and a team trades up to #3 (Skins, Cardinals, 49ers?) for the rights to Gabbert. This removes 2 teams from the Luck sweepstakes and keeps the Bills in the hunt. At this point I'm all in on Luck. I know he has another year in college, but unless he has a total collapse, which I can't see happening, I'm all in on him as a prospect.

There is a good chance the team selecting 1st in the 2012 draft will, no matter what, select Luck first overall, but hear me out: This years QB draft class is very questionable. The two top QB's both have major question marks. Newton and Gabbert are far from safe picks, and personally I'm not a huge fan of either. I like Newton a lot more than Gabbert, but I think both are too risky to warrant the #3 pick. Scenario #1 (No 2012 NFL season): The Bills trade down from the #3 spot acquiring a 2012 1st round pick and there is no 2011 NFL season. Under this scenario, whomever trades up with the Bills will presumably be doing so to select a QB (Gabbert or Newton). In doing so, the Bills would lock themselves into pick #3 and w/e pick the team trading up holds (let's say the 49ers at pick #7) for the 2012 draft. With the #3 and #7 picks overall in next years draft you give yourself a lot of ammunition to move up to #1 to select Luck. If the Panthers select Newton you would also have the added bonus of Carolina not being in the market for a QB next year. The other side of the coin is if Newton goes #1, there's proabably not a good chance of a team moving up to #3. Scenario #2 (2012 season is played): The Bills once again trade down and acquire a 2012 1st round pick, let's say from Washington. Now you're banking on Washington taking its lumps in year 1 with a rookie QB and giving you a relatively high 1st round pick (say a pick in the 4-8 range). The Bills in all likelihood are at least another year or 2 away from truly competing, so they should have another high 1st round pick (around 8-12). Once again we come out of the 2011 season with 2 high 1st round picks, giving us plenty of ammo to leapfrog teams for the rights to Andrew Luck. I know there are a lot of ifs and buts, but for a team that hasn't had a franchise QB for a decade and a half you have to position yourself for a chance at Andrew Luck, who in my eyes is head and shoulders above any QB prospect in this years draft. He has the pocket presence, the accuracy, the mobility, the intellingence, the character, the ball skills and the field vision to lead a franchise for 10+ years. So, if the Bills can maneuver this year to put themselves in a legitimate position to have a chance at Luck they need to do it. The biggest IF, is will there be any teams willing to come up to #3 this year and part with a future 1st rounder? I hope so.

I disagree with your opinion of Ayers. He does seem to have gained some interest as of late, but he's a 2nd round prospect, IMO. I'm actually not a fan of his at all. He's got a lanky, thin build and I don't think he's all that strong against the run. Okay but not good. I see him get pushed back and easily blocked a lot on his game tape. I think we could do better with our 2nd round pick than Ayers. I happen to like Justin Houston, a lot more, even though he's more of a pure OLB than Ayers who some project as an ILB. I'm not sure why Houston hasn't received the same type of hype as Ayers as he looks to be the better player of the two. I don't think Houston will make it past NE at pick #33, but if he does I'd love to see the Bills take him.

and he's not that good at pass blocking or run blocking. I'm not a big fan of Solder at all.

Oh Okay, that is something I didn't know. If that is the case, then you are right, not worth that type of money. I'm all for moving on from Donte if we can't sign hnim to a team friendly contract. Guys who break the bank should be well rounded difference makers, and Whitner is not that. BTW I think team friendly would be around $4.5-$5.0 million a year. Say 4 years, $20 million with $10-12 million guaranteed. I have a feeling Whitner is probably seeking a 5 year deal in excess of $30 million, which I don't think he's worth.

According to the article on PFT regarding Charles Johnson and DeAngelo Williams, it seems, as of now, teams are able to designate players with 4 or 5 years of service as restricted free agents. Normally this wouldn't be the case, but because last year was uncapped it appears to be possible. Of course it may not hold up after a new CBA is agreed upon, but if the Bills are interested in retaining Whitner for a cheaper $ amount, tendering him as a RFA seems to be a possibility. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/02/24/panthers-to-restrict-deangelo-williams-charles-johnson/ For the record, Whitner has played 5 full seasons with the Bills.

I like Marcel Dareus at the #3 spot. If he's gone, which is possible, Jordan could certainly be a possibility. Productive player who fits Nix's criteria, as other have said, at a big position of need. 3 is probably a reach, but Nix does not give a crap about opinion outside of 1 Bills Drive, he'll go with the guy he and the scouts like best. In an ideal world if Dareus is gone at #3 we could trade back to #7 or so, take a guy like Jordan and pick up an additional 2nd rounder in the process. We all know that the draft is not an ideal world and it's rare to see teams move up into one of the top 3 spots, so I highly doubt it'll happen. Another player (a mid-late 1st round prospect), I'm intrigued with is Justin Houston. Obviously the #3 pick is high, but if there is a way we can manuever around and come away with Houston I'd be happy. I think in 3-4 years he'll be the best LB to come out of this draft (although Quinn could be right there too). Favorite D-Lineman: Marcel Dareus, Phil Taylor, Cameron Jordan Favorite LB's: Robert Quinn, Justin Houston Favorite WR: AJ Green BTW, Nolan Nawrocki (PFW.com) has Cam Jordan going #7 to SF in his initial mock draft, so don't be surprised to see him go that high. Dominant Senior Bowls backed by productive careers, can really propel a prospect (see Tyson Alualu).

That, or I know the Bills original plans were to groom Moats as an ILB. At this point, that's a luxury they can't afford, but down the road I wonder if they'd consider moving him back inside.

A quick background for those unfamiliar with Justin Houston: http://www.georgiadogs.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/houston_justin00.html A youtube video of Houston ballin (he's #42): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR0L2RVId90 What I like most about Justin Houston is the productivity he's had in the SEC the last 3 years. He contributed his redshirt freshman year, and had 2.5 sacks his 1st year. He stepped it up his sophomore year, comuing up with 15 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. Then his junior campaign he topped it off with, 67 tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss, and 10 sacks. It's already been mentioned that he played in the best conference in college football so you don't really have to question his production vs. quality of opponents either. What's really impressive is how Houston's been living in opponents backfields. 38% and 28% of his total tackles occured behind the line of scrimmage his sophomore and junior years, respectively. I prefer to see a player who's made gradual improvements throughout their college career compared to those that seem to come out of no where with huge junior or senior years. Not that one is better than the other, but it seems safer to go with a guy who's been doing it for 3-4 years as opposed to the prospect that had 1 monster year after 2-3 years of quiet productivity. After listening to Buddy Nix's drafting philosphies it seems he prefers an extended productive college career too. I also love Houston's size and fluidity. At 6'3", 258 lbs., Houston is the prototype for a 3-4 OLB (Casey Matthews is 6'3", 255 lbs for a reference point). This means Houston has the size and toughness to maintain his ground vs. the running game, but he also has the quicknss and speed to create pressure. He also happens to look pretty fluid dropping back in space, which is another huge plus for an OLB prospect. In the end I don't think Houston is worthy of a Top 10 pick, but I also can't envision a scenario where he'd last until our 2nd round pick. We're a ways out from draft day, but I was surprised to see Noaln Nawrocki, of PFW, didn't include Houston in the 1st round of his first mock draft. I certainly expect that to change, as I think he'd be the perfect player for the Patriots and there's no way he'd slip past their 28th pick. They would maybe even consider him at #17, IMO, as I believe he's a great prospect and his pass rush is exactly what the Patriots are missing. Whether the Bills have to trade down from #3, up from #34, or a combination of the two, I'd love to see Justin Houston in a Bill uniform. A final note, he was suspended the first 2 games of his sophomore year for reasons Georgia never disclosed. Teams will have to check out his past, but the thought was it wasn't too big of a violation and it had nothing to do with failing a drug test, which would've required a minimum 6 game suspension. I'd appreciate hearing from anyone who has an opinion or knows a thing or two about Houston. I'm just starting to familiarize myself with him, but as of now I'm impressed, and I think he'll be a well known commodity come April 28.

Astro I enjoy your posts. You provide a lot of quality, informative content related to the draft. So please don't take offense to my disagreement with you on this one........... What in the hell do you see in Pat Devlin as a prospect worthy of a high 2nd round pick? He looked atrocious in the East West Shrine game. Little pocket presence, accuracy was all over the place, and most concerning was his weak arm strength. The combination of a weak arm and poor pocket presence and I didn't think he'd fit in with Buffalo's weather or Chan's Gailey's offense. It seemed to me even the evaluators covering the game, came away pretty unimpressed with Devlin. He looked, in my eyes to be a 4th to 6th round QB prospect. Your thoughts? During the East West Shrine game, announcers were careful to point out they'd heard compariosns to Flacco. They said the only true comparison between Flacco and Devlin is that they played college ball at the same school. Flacco's accuracy was well beyond Devlin's and his arm strength was night and day when compared to Devlin. Devlin has poor arm strength, by NFL standards, no question.

But Maybin gets really cool haircuts before gameday.

Moch will run no where near a 4.2 40 time. I watched him carefully at the East West Shrine game. His speed sideline to sideline was not all that impressive. His ability to shed blockers was less impressive. He also weighed in much lighter than expected at the shrine game. He is not a fit in the 3-4 defense to top things off. Just say no to Moch, he's not a player. My guess is Moch runs no better than a high 4.4, low 4.5 40, still very impressive for a LB, but no where close to what he's proclaimed he runs. I could see a 4-3 team that values speed and plays on a fast track (Atlanta Falcons come to mind) take a flier on Moch in round 4-5, and use him as a situational rusher, but personnaly I'm not a fan. Hal Lay Lou Yah.....someone who can see Moch for what he is. A glorified, small LB who filled up the stat sheets in the WAC. Wasn't very consistent though, and at his weight will never be more than a reserve at the NFL level, and that's best case scenario IMO. If the Bills are thruthful about sticking with the 3-4 (which I believe they are after listening to Buddy Nix), I don't even think Moch would be a draftable prospect on their board.

I'd rather have Spiller. I think Starks should have a fine career, especially given the fact that he should be playing on one of the NFL's better offenses for the next few years. I'd still rather take Spiller though, as his explosiveness will create many mismatches in the future. James Starks is more in the mold of a Freddy J, which is great, but we already have a freddy J for the next couple of years.

I think the interior OL were much more impressive than the OT's at the Senior Bowl. I actually thought the most impreeive OT was Derrick Sherrod from Miss St. Solder, to my eye, was totally unimpressive. I don't care how much he looks like an OT, or how much potential he has. He was getting beaten early and often with speed in the game. He also struggled some in 1 on 1 blocking with speed moves. I don't think he can man the LT position in the NFL. I didn't take note of Costanzo too much, but I did see him in at G a lot. The G from Baylor, Danny Watkins, on the other hand, dominated the Senior Bowl. That guy will make a solid G/C in the NFL, the only drawback is he'll be 27 his rookie year. Players only get 4-5 year rookie contracts though, and he has the look of a future Pro Bowl OL, IMO, so I don't think his age will hurt his stock too much.

Clay weighed in at 246 lbs at the 2009 Senior Bowl, so he was a good 9 lbs heavier than Von at this stage, and Clay was considered light at that weight to play OLB in the 3-4. He has since bulked up to 255 lbs and we obviously know how well he's fit in as an OLB. Von Miller needs to put on a minimum of 15 lbs. to hold up in the NFL. At this moment in time he is too small for the 3-4. Can he pack on 15 lbs and keep his speed and athleticism? That's a question he needs to answer at the Combine. He blamed skipping meals and not eating enough at school for the reason he weighted in too light. I don't really buy it. In the end I think Von is a much better fit in a 4-3 despite 90% of the media saying he's a better fit in the 3-4. If he comes in to the Combine weighing 243-247 and still looks the part I think a lot of 3-4 teams will be happy. I actually think weight gets pushed to the side too much by fans when they see a player they like. There were serious concernes about Maybin's body structure and weight 2 years ago, and these concerns were very real. I'm not comparing Maybin to Miller directly, but they both have weight issues. At this point Von is a good fit for the 4-3, but he is very undersized for an OLB in the 3-4. You make a good point about weight fluctuating during the season, but if you start the season weighing 255 and go down to 247 by seasons end that may work. If you start out at 237 and end the season at 230 you're going to be on IR or getting dominated by 300 lb OL, no question. You would think if Von Miller had the ability to carry an additional 10-15 lbs he would already be carrying it. I've seen his film, and I really like his pass rush ability, but you need to be stout against the run to play 3 downs in the NFL. At his current weight teams like the Pats, Jets and Phins will run all day at Von Miller, and I don't want another pass rush specialist with the #3 overall pick.

In order to move up to pick #25 to acquire Tim Tebow, the Broncos gave up their 2nd, 3rd and 4th round pick. So if the Bills were serious about acquiring him they were probably "willing" to give up something similar. If, and this is a big if, the Bills really did covet Tebow, the question becomes would they be willing to give up a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounder this year for Tim Tebow? I believe the Broncocs would love that deal, after all they're transitioning to a 4-3 from a 3-4, so acquiring 3 solid draft picks for a QB who still has a lot of questions would be a great deal for them. I don't happen to believe the Bills front office is stupid enough to give up that type of value for a QB who could flame out. I especially don't think they'd do it because their picks this year are all in the top 3 of each round, so that'd be wayyyy too much to give up for Tim. With that said you have to wonder, if the Bills would be willing to give up say a 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder. If they really were after him hard last year, I think that's a deal they'd do. Whether or not the Broncos would be willing to do it, comes down to what Fox thinks of him, and that I have no clue about. In the end it's highly unlikely Tebow will be moved, but I'm sure the Bills will be in touch with the Broncos IF they truly were "devastated" when the Broncos snagged Tebow before they could (Adam Schedfter's report). The only QB that intrigues me in this years draft, in the first round, is Cam Newton, and I think his value lies in the 16-25 range. Mayock has mentioned that Newton compares to Tebow, but he has the better arm and is more athletic than Tebow. Tebow went #25, so I definitely expect Cam to go before 25. Maybe he's the guy Chan and Buddy will target in a trade down scenario.

Just to update after watching the 1st half of the Senior Bowl: DeMarcus Love's stock has plummetted after this game. He was totally abused by Kerrigan (a 1st round prospect) on the second to last drive. Got beat for a sack where he was dominated by the speed rush, and then on the next play was called for holding when he was beaten badly again. On the ensuing option run, he was pancaked by a pulling guard and laid out flat on his back. No way he can play tackle in the NFL, and may not really be strong enough to play G. Love is a mid round draft pick (based on potential only), but with the way he looks in this game he may end up going much later.

That'd be a garbage offseason IMO. Peterson is overrated and won't be a top 5 pick. Love really showed a lot of problems this week in Senior Bowl practices. Particularly struggled with speed. Needs a lot of development in order to be a starter in the NFL. The QB from Nevada, maybe, but I think he's overrated too. The TE from Arkansas, doesn't fit our offense. Dude is way too small to block in the NFL, Gailey needs a TE who is a dual threat, he's made reference to it many times.

Mayock's started to make the comparisons to Kevin Kolb. Above average in many respects, not great at any one particular thing is more or less what Mayock's been saying. I think Kolb was viewed as a Round 3-4 QB prospect heading into the draft and ended up going pretty high in round #2. We're still a ways out, but after the Senior Bowl, Combine, and Pro Day I think NFL talent evaluators will have a much beeter feel for Andy Dalton. If scouts agree with Mayock's take, than it seems high 2nd round pick wouldn't be out of the question. The biggest question he has to answer is arm strength. The NFL is so QB straved that if he continues to impress in the evaluation process he'll certainly warrant interest.