Estro

I really enjoyed watching the gruden camps prior to the draft this year. Figured I'd link the Spiller segment for anyone who never got a chance to see it. Spiller seems like a pretty cool guy, pretty funny too. His speed, acceleration, agility and creativity in the open field, coupled with Gailey's ability to scheme an offense should account for a minimum of 6-7 TD's this season.

Better off betting it on 5dimes.com. They have the Bills over/under set at 5 regular season wins. This way if they go 5-11 you get your moeny back as opposed to losing.

Kareem Jackson got a hell of a deal by the looks of it. More guaranteed money than the 5 players that were taken ahead of him. I always wonder how stuff like that happens. This is one of my biggest gripes with NFL rookie contracts. Whoever drafts in slot #20 next year will have a tough time getting their player signed because Houston way overpaid (in guarenteed money) for #20 this year. And Bradford getting nearly 20% more in guaranteed money than Stafford did just last year. At this rate guaranteed money is going to be jumping up $10 million per year for the #1 pick and the increases are exponential. By 2014 you're looking at $100 million guaranteed for the #1 pick, if things continue as is. Time for a change. Carson Palmer received $16.4 million guaranteed after being selected first overall in 2003. JaMarcus Russell received $29 million guaranteed 4 years later (in the 2007 draft). A jump of 76.7% in just 4 years. Fast forward another 3 years to Sam Bradford's $50 million in guaranteed money. A jump of 72.4% in now just 3 years. In just 7 years the guaranteed money paid out to the #1 pick has more than tripled. Things have gotten totally out of hand, and the NFL no longer has a sustainable model for paying high 1st round picks. It's clearly becoming more of a nuisance than help to possess these top 5 picks. Can you imagine if it triples again in the next 7 years......$150 million guaranteed.......what the hell?

There seems to be 2 opinions when it comes to Lynch: 1. Big deal, he's not at a voluntary minicamp. There are lots of players around the league who do not attend voluntary mini camps, I don't see why it's a big deal. 2. Lynch's numbers and play on the field last year were well below average. Another poor year and Lynch, a former high 1st round pick, can certainly be labeled a bust. With a new coaching staff and a chance to have a clean slate why the hell would Lynch not want to be there to give the new regime a good first impression of him? I totally agree with #2. The guy was out of shape and looked terrible hitting the holes last year. In watching Lynch live last year, a handful of times, I actually thought he was a liability on the field. Indecisive hitting the hole, poor in pass blocking , and dropped way too many dump off passes. The guy is being paid millions and he sucked it up last year. Why not get your a** to Buffalo for 3 day (4.5 hours of team practice total) to set the tone that you're serious about making solid contributions this season. I like the fact that NIX set the precedent this offseason that just because a player is unhappy in Buffalo does not mean we will trade them away for less than what they are worth. Why reward a player for basically being a malcontent and not showing up to a job that pays you millions with 100% effort everyday? I don't care if it's voluntary or not, Lynch is showing the new regime exactly what we all already know. He's not 100% dedicated to improving the Buffalo Bills. The difference between guys like Lynch and Freddy J is like night and day.

The Rams will not and can not afford to take a QB with a high #1 next year. Neither can the Lions who have to give Stafford a fair chance to develop. You can also argue that the Bucs will give Freeman at least another year to develop into a solid starter. That's 3 teams who won't be picking a QB and that will probably be picking in the top 10 of next years draft. The problem is that there are at least a dozen other teams that would take a QB with a high #1 and the Bills are certainly one of those teams. If the Bills are not in the top 5-6 of the NFL draft they probably won't have a shot at Locker or Mallet. And to be honest I see the Bills making another run at 6-10/7-9 so in the end I don't think they'll be in a position to select either.

Due to my intrigue in the NFL Draft and NFL college scouting I plan on getting the College Gameday package this season and taping all of the elite QB's games so I can have my own informed opinion. I'm also hoping to get to see 1 or 2 of the top QB's live this upcoming season. Next years draft should be loaded with talent in the 1st round. I also happen to think that Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa) is an absolute beast. I believe he would've been a sure fire top 15 pick in this years draft and with a solid season next year he should be a top 10 pick. At 6'3" he'd fit ideally into a 3-4, and he's good vs. both the run and pass. He really opened my eyes in last years Orange Bowl, and he's another player I'll be following closely.

Let me add, that Locker seems to possess more of the traits that Gailey would look for in a QB than Luck or Mallet. From an athleticism standpoint Locker is the clear cut #1, follwed by Luck (a distant 2nd), and Mallet 3rd. I don't have enough info on Luck to have an informed opinion, but I think Locker will need time to develop and grow comfortable with the pro passing game. At times he struggles to read defenses and he isn't consistent enough in the passing game to trust handing over a franchise to him in year 1. Mallet may lack the athleticism of Locker, but I like his pocket presence and his understanding of the passing game is clearly ahead of Locker's. I think Mallet is a guy who can come in and be the #1 immediately and perform at a high level. Add in the fact that he has great arm strength and I think he'd be a great fit in Buffalo. I'm more of a Mallet fan than Locker fan, but they each have a year left so a lot could change.

I think once the dust settles Locker will be the 2nd QB taken in the 2011 draft. I'm betting on Ryan Mallet (Arkansas) or Andrew Luck (Stanford) outperforming Locker this season. I happen to think Mallet will be a better pro passer than Locker, who still has a lot of developing to do in the passing game. Nonetheless next year has the looks to be a great year to draft a QB. I plan on keeping a close eye on all 3 QB's throughout the season to see who I prefer.

Opinion or fact?

To early to tell, but at this point I like Troup + Carrington over D. Williams. I was not high on Williams as a prospect so to give up a #2 and #3 for him would've been risky IMO. Time will tell.

As I recall the Bills were deciding between 2 players with the 12th pick: Marshawn Lynch or Darelle Revis This was the draft year before we nabbed McKelvin so had we taken Revis we probably would've gone in another direction in 2008. Shoulda woulda coulda. That's what happens when you reach for needs. RB at the time was abysmal. We had A-train, and that was pretty much it. I can understand why they went with Lynch, but looking back Revis would've been the better move long term. There's one scenario where we all probably wish Juaron won out and got his DB.

Demaryius Thomas and Dan Williams make the most sense to me. Although I believe Bryan Bulaga, Dez Bryant and Jared Odrick could also be candidates. I'm leaning Dan Williams because of what the Bills ultimately did with picks #2 and #3, but if the Bills were targeting best player available rather than needs I could be wrong. Demaryius Thomas seemed to be the #1 WR on many draft boards, so it could have just as easily been him. Personally I'm happy the trade up didn't materialize. The Bills have too many holes to give up draft picks and I'm happy with more bodies and more competition in camp.

One of the most frustrating parts of the draft for me, is that once it's over you never get to hear any of the inside war room stories. What players did they covet that were already off the board? What teams did they talk to about moving up/down? What players were they targeting in certain trade scenarios? It's obvious why teams would protect this information. If the player they targeted ends up sucking, they come out looking better by never mentioning him as a target. If he becomes a Pro Bowler down the road, they can always say that they were indeed trying to get him in the draft. The second reason to not disclose this information is that it may tip their hand on their intentions for next years draft. Anyhow we all know (if Buddy is telling the truth) that the Bills were attempting to trade back into the late 1st round. Will we ever find out the player they were targeting? Probably not. So we're left to speculate. Here's my take: Immediately after pick #25 (when the Broncos selected Tebow) word comes that the Bills were devastated about missing out on Tebow. It's since come out they weren't targeting Tebow, but they probably were calling teams around this spot about a possible trade up. Normally if you're interested in say spot #25 you'll start sniffing around several selections before. If we are to take Nix at his word (the player they wanted was off the board, thus no trade up) it means they were targeting one of the following player: Demaryius Thomas, Bryan Bulaga, Dez Bryant or Dan Williams. Because Nevergiveup mentioned both Demaryius Thomas and Dan Williams as dark horse picks at #9, I'm assuming one or both of those players were the target. Thomas was taken at #22, so he was off the board so this would make sense. Dan Williams, however, was still on the board at #25 as he was picked at #26. However, it's possible the Bills were looking to move up to #25 to take Williams, but lost out to Denver. They then start dialing up the Cardinals, who didn't listen and nab Williams themselves. Obviously it's all specualtion, and we'll probably never know the answer, but the fact that we targeted 2 defensive players with our next 2 picks, makes me think it was indeed Dan Williams. Add in that Nevergiveup clearly stated that Williams would be a candidate at #9 for the Bills and you have to think the Bills would've been aggresively trying to trade up for him at #25.

After assessing Maybin's game I'm of the belief that he's ill suited to play OLB in the 3-4. If we ran a 3-4 defense heading into the 2009 draft there is no chance Maybin would have been the pick because he does not fit in a 3-4 well. His outside speed rush is handled rather easily by NFL OT"s and he has yet to develop any type of counter moves to prssure the QB. Add to this the fact that Maybin is very slow to diagnose plays and is not good in coverage and I think he'll struggle big time at OLB. Nix and Gailey will give Maybin a fair shake and hopefully he can contribute. I just don't see it panning out.

The Patriots just turned the 91st pick into a 2nd rounder next year, which will be another strong draft. Add in the fact that the trade was with Carolina, who will probably finish middle of the pack and it will probably be a top 50 pick next year. The Patriots now have 2 #1's and 2 #2's, as i predicted they would by days end.

Eric Norwood

pick came in very quick again.....

I don't think the Bills like either QB. Neither will play this year, and they probably don't view either as a franchise QB, so why waste a top 45 pick on that. Nobody else in the league seems to view them highly. They're looking for a player who can come in and play right away.

Looks like it will be Benn

1. Charles Brown 2. Rodger Saffold (not a big fan) 3. Eric Norwood 4. Jeff Owens 5. Linval Joseph 6. John Skelton 5 players I suspect are on the Bills radar this evening.

Nate Allen is one of my favorite safeties in this years class. He's a gamer and makes a lot of plays on the ball (way more than Mays). He would be too much of a luxury pick for the Bills at #41, though. I'd prefer a defender in the front 7 or OL with that pick.

Quick clip of Norwood:

Exatly can you imagine NE heading into next year's draft with 3 1st round pikcs. It's certainly possible. I'm sure they will at least parlay one of their 2nd's today into a 3rd and 2nd next year, which means worst case they'll have 2 #1's & 2 #2's for the 2011 draft. To add a little to my thinking that the Bills like Norwood: He comes at a great position of need, OLB, and can rush the passer. He also has a full body of work, and had a great career at South Carolina. A 4 year player, who earned 1st team All SEC 3 years in a row. Also earned 1st Team All American his senior season. Remember, Nix puts a lot of stock into a full body of work, and Norwood's got that.

1. The Bears covet Nate Allen (Safety from South Florida). He's still on the board, but could be the next safety off the board. Doesn't have the fame of Taylor Mays, but is probably more ready to play now. Without a 2nd round pick the Bears will more than likely have to move up to land Allen. Now news breaks there shopping several of their LB's to add picks. I think the Bears will make an aggresive trade up to land their man.....Nate Allen. 2. I think it's more likely the Bills trade back then up this round. I suspect the Bills are high on Eric Norwood, who would be a bit of a reach at #41, but may not be there at #72. By moving back and picking up an extra 3rd-4th they could land Norwood at a more reasonable slot. 3. Yesterday when the Chargers made the huge moveup to #12 I was sure it was to land Dan Williams. Wrong. I suspected for a long time that SD liked Jeff Owens to replace Jamaal Williams as NT. Now without a 2nd round pick, I think the Chargers will really be hoping to see Owens on the board when they pick in Round 3. A.J. Smith has clearly been reaching for needs the last few years so don't be surprised to see SD move up again and target their desired NT. 4. Let's hope the Pats don't turn one of their 2nd round picks into a 2011 1st round pick.

It's funny how most are saying that Spiiller to Buffalo was somehow a big surprise/shock. Any fan who has a slight clue as to what's going on has had to of heard Spiller's name mentioned quite a bit over the ladt month. Many actually had spiller going to the Bills...including, Charles Davis, Mike Mayock, and Nolan Nawrocki. Some may not like the pick, but it definitely didn't come out of left field like the Whitner pick 4 years ago. like it or not the Bills went with their board and you have to respect that. No more reaching for needs, and I like it. Good night, hopefully we can add 2 starters tomorrow! I'd be happy with Sergio Kindle!