BillsFanForever19

Very confused by listing Kingsley Jonathan as a DT and DeShawn Williams as a DE. Jonathan's a DE and Williams is a DT.

It's like I said leading up to the Draft. Everyone was talking about all these packages to trade up and get Harrison or Nabers, as if it were as simple as just meeting the chart figures and it's a done deal. When it came to those top picks, no one was going to give up the kind of talents that they took without an INSANE overpay. And this just goes to show, even with an insane overpay - they STILL turned it down. We couldn't even touch the kind of offer Minnesota put forth. And it still wasn't enough.

This is 100% correct. According to the go to Comp Guy for OverTheCap on Twitter, we would have had another 6th for Dane Jackson, but it was cancelled out with the Curtis Samuel signing.

That's great that you think that. But that's not how the NFL works. It's like a fan saying they think a Guard can be converted to a Tackle, or a Nickel can be converted to a Boundary CB, a DT can be a Pass Rusher, a CB can be a Safety, etc. Tyler Boyd has taken 81% of his total career snaps out of the Slot. And that's a swayed number as he did it a lot more in earlier seasons before they realized he wasn't suited for the role and has exclusively worked and succeeded from the Slot ever since. He's even more of a Slot than Samuel is. Shakir is not an Outside WR either. Everyone wants to say he can play the role, but when we put him there in a pinch in the Playoffs when we were thin - he didn't produce.

I wouldn't. I expect it. As I said before, Beane talks out of both sides of his mouth *constantly*. I've had egg on my face around here numerous times taking him at his word. It's common knowledge and a talking point around the board that Beane lies (as do all GM'). So why are we so willing to take his word as gospel now? Especially when the hole is so obvious and in my opinion, the only real spot on the roster that needs an addition - when we have over 10m coming in a month? Him not taking more than one WR in the Draft doesn't mean what you think it does, in my opinion. As I stated above, we came into this Draft with everything in our core covered - save for 2 Starters on the Outside. We took one in Coleman at 33. But with what was available at 60 and beyond, you weren't getting a replacement for the other side. Nor do I think they'd have wanted to start two Rookies, even if they could. Anyone Drafted at 60 or beyond would have only served to replace Justin Shorter (and whomever could potentially beat out Shorter) on the bottom of the roster, behind Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, and Hollins. They wouldn't have filled the hole we had adequately for this season, so they didn't bother. The top remaining veteran FA (or someone who becomes available via surprise cut or manageable trade) can fill that role now. And I'd be shocked if he left it bare. It won't be Tyler Boyd. Or Hunter Renfrow for that matter. The hole is on the Perimeter. Boyd is a PURE Slot. We have more than we need there with Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid. Adding Boyd would just crowd that room more and remove reps from all those guys - while still leaving a gaping hole on the Outside needing to be filled.

You are aware that we get 10.2m on 6/1 from releasing Tre White and also saved some on the cap from trading out of Round 1, right? Come 6/1 we will have some money to spend and there will be guys available. Damn. He is one of the top options available. Cross him off the list then.

Here comes an on brand for me long winded reply lol Everything on this list is 100% set or more than likely set (in my opinion) - save for one position. RB: James Cook #4 Ray Davis Ty Johnson #26 Frank Gore Jr. Darrynton Evans #37 - Likely, we only keep 3 RB's on the 53 to go along with Reggie Gilliam at FB. Cook and Davis stand firmly atop the 53, after Cook's Pro Bowl season and spending a relatively high (especially for the RB position) on Davis. Ty Johnson earned the RB3 job last season and that's what we signed him for. Frank Gore Jr. signed here in my opinion as he's almost guaranteed, at least, a spot on the Practice Squad with us. Evans is our journeyman vet camp body that may also join Gore on the PS. We're set there, in my opinion. Any addition here wouldn't be a big one. OL: Dion Dawkins #73 David Edwards #76 Connor McGovern #66 O'Cyrus Torrence #64 Spencer Brown #79 - La'el Collins #71 Sedrick Van Pran-Granger Ryan Van Demark #74 Alec Anderson #70 Will Clapp #77 Tylan Grable Tommy Doyle #72 Travis Clayton Keaton Bills Richard Gouraige #75 Kevin Jarvis #63 Gunner Britton Mike Edwards - We're 1000% set on OL. We currently have *18* players on the roster and will probably only keep half of them. As it is, we're going to be cutting some veterans of the team, FA signings from this offseason, and/or late round Draft Picks. Dawkins, Brown, and Van Demark will be 3 of our 4 tackles. Leaving only one spot open for either Collins, Grable, Doyle, or Gouraige. McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Van Pran-Granger, and Anderson seem obvious as 5 Interior locks or pretty close to locks. And we're likely to only keep 5. CB: Rasul Douglas #31 Christian Benford #47 Taron Johnson #7 Kaiir Elam #5 Daequan Hardy Ja'Marcus Ingram #46 Kyron Brown #32 Keni-H Lovely Travis Blackshear - I think it's *possible* we add another CB. But I think it's likely, if not more than likely, they feel we're set there. At times, we've kept 6, but we kept 5 last season. Douglas and Benford are our starters on the Boundary, with Elam coming off the bench in case of an injury. Taron Johnson will start at Nickel, with Hardy backing him up. Cam Lewis was handed a decent sized pay increase on a new deal, mainly for his versatility. I think he'll be listed as a Safety. But if there are two injuries at Perimeter or Nickel, I think they'd turn to him. They also like Ingram, who has been in the system for years now. He lives on the PS, but has shown promise when called on in a pinch. S: Cole Bishop #24 Mike Edwards #21 Taylor Rapp #20 Cam Lewis #33 Damar Hamlin #3 Kendall Williamson #36 - Generally, we keep 4 here. Though I think it will be technically 5 this season - with the aforementioned Cam Lewis as depth at both CB and Safety in the event of either position having multiple injuries. In Bishop, who we spent a big premium Draft Pick for the position on and is the future and possibly even the present of the position, Edwards, and Rapp - we have 3 talent capable players at the top of the chart for 2 positions. If one goes down, the odd man out would come in. If two went down, Lewis would come in. Maybe they replace Hamlin as the 5th Safety, but you're not getting or paying for a substantial player there for such a minimal role and likely to get a similar player in value to Hamlin. So i'd imagine they'd just keep him there and see if he can get better after a transition year last year. DE: Von Miller #40 Greg Rousseau #50 AJ Epenesa #57 Casey Toohill #95 Javon Solomon Kingsley Jonathan #59 Kameron Cline #96 David Ugwoebgu - I hear DE brought up more than any other position but WR. But like CB, I think it's more likely they think they're set there after re-signing Epenesa to a bigger contract, stealing the sack leader in the FBS in Solomon where we took him, signing Toohill (not a sexy name, but a productive reserve), and retaining Jonathan. Generally, we only keep 4 to 5 there. We kept 6 last year, but that was an anomaly because of Miller's injury and the guys we had under contract. This year, I see us keeping 5. I know everyone's worried about Miller. But I expect a better Miller this season and I believe they do too. Will he be what he was before the ACL? That I don't know. But we're going to get a better version than we got last season. This is his last season here. Everyone is writing him off and his career is over if he doesn't get better. That's a *lot* of motivation for one of the greatest of all time. He's surely working his tail off right now and will be afforded an actual offseason and Training Camp to get up to speed, over a year removed from injury. In the event he doesn't fully return to form, that's why we paid what we did to get Epenesa back. Either Miller returns to form and starts, with Epenesa being 3rd in rotation or Miller can't start, Epenesa does, and Miller is a reserve. I don't see them viewing anyone but Groot, Miller, and Epenesa as their top 3 guys. Beyond that, Javon Solomon will surely have a spot on the 53. We don't outright cut 5th Rounders (and he shouldn't have lasted that long) and given his production in College, he has HUGE upside and is not a player I envision them thinking they can sneak on their PS. That leaves one roster spot for Toohill or Jonathan. Given when we signed Toohill, his production as a reserve, and the role he would have here - I feel they think Toohill is the perfect guy for 4th or 5th DE on the roster. Small chance Jonathan beats him out. But I think they view him a Brandin Bryant type. A guy that lives on our PS and gets called up after 1 injury. If someone else signs him, good for him. But he seems to always find his way back here. DT: Ed Oliver #91 Daquan Jones #92 DeWayne Carter Austin Johnson #98 DeShawn Williams #99 Eli Ankou #51 Branson Deen Rondell Bothroyd - This will be much quicker than DE. We're completely set here. We'll keep 5 DT's. In Oliver, Jones, Carter, and Johnson we have our starters and immediate backups at 3T and 1T SOLIDLY covered. DeShawn Williams will stick as our 5th. Done. That leads us to the one spot where I see it being almost a sure thing we'll add to, possibly with someone from your list.... WR: Keon Coleman #0 Curtis Samuel #1 Khalil Shakir #10 Mack Hollins #13 Justin Shorter #18 Quintez Cephus #81 Andy Isabella #87 K.J. Hamler #19 Tyrell Shavers #80 Bryan Thompson #89 Xavier Johnson Jr. Lawrence Keys - We went into this Draft with everything covered except for replacements to Diggs and Davis at the Starting Outside spots. Samuel replaces Harty, Hollins replaces Sherfield - with Shakir returning as one (of our many) main Slot's. In Coleman, they got their guy for one of those spots. But with the only other spot to replace on the 53 being the other starter and with what was left at 60 and beyond for Outside WR's (combined with them likely not wanting to start two Rookies), they didn't take another. I know everyone's panicking after what Beane said. But he goes back on his word constantly. He said similar things last season about our DE room.... then he signed Leonard Floyd in June. While I do tend to believe that he doesn't want to spend premium Draft Picks for the privilege to sign a Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk to a MONSTER long term contract - I see it as close to a 0% chance that we don't use some of Tre's money to sign one of the top remaining Outside WR's or trade for one that is on a manageable short term contract. Beane himself said that Coleman will be eased in and "will have a hard time starting at the beginning of the season". If that's the case, then what? Samuel is a great weapon, but he's a mainly Inside guy that takes minimal outside reps. He's not and has never been someone who plays on the Outside predominantly. Beane's words have confirmed that, calling him a "weapon" and not a Starting Outside guy. So we'd be Starting Hollins on the Outside (yick) and... who? Shorter? No way. We're currently in a spot that where our only True Outside WR's are Coleman, Hollins, Shorter, and a myriad of Practice Squad or out of the league guys. I don't care what he's saying now, I would be absolutely floored if we didn't add on the Outside. Tyler Boyd and Hunter Renfrow are Pure Slots. And with Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid either playing exclusively or in the VAST majority in the Slot - we're absolutely set there. So it won't be one of them. But one of Gallup, OBJ, Chark, MVS, and Thomas are 1000% in play. Who knows who else could surprisingly become available via surprise cut or surprise trade. But don't panic in April. I expect the Leonard Floyd to the DE room from last season to come to the WR room before Week 1. That would give us Coleman, (FA/Trade Outside Addition), and Hollins on the Outside. Shakir and Samuel in the Slot/Z Flex. Leaving us one (maybe 2 if we feel like keeping 7 as we've done a couple times in the past) roster spot(s) that will come down to a battle between Shorter, Cephus, Hamler, Isabella, and the rest of the UDFA/PS pack - with Shorter having the edge if all things are equal, being a 5th Round investment.

If the season started immediately after the Draft or we had a crystal ball that said there won't be any more additions before Week 1 - then, no. We wouldn't have done enough. But it's only April. And we still have 10+m coming in a month. I've justifiably taken flack and embarrassed myself in the past for having taken Beane at face value when he's said things (ie Nyheim Hines and Stefon Diggs not going anywhere). So why are we all ready to accept his word as gospel now? Last season, he said the same type of things about liking our Defensive End room. Then he went and signed Leonard Floyd in June. Ultimately, what I see it coming down to was that looking at what we've done this offseason with Samuel replacing Harty and Hollins replacing Sherfield (and having a 5th Round Pick in Shorter coming off Redshirt from Last Season, to go along with Shakir) - we had the core covered outside of the starters on the Boundary - needing replacements for Diggs and Davis. Acquiring two WR's in the Draft that you'd feel comfortable both starting really wasn't feasible. You could get one, which we did in Coleman (whether you're a fan of him or not, that was who the brass and Josh wanted and believed in). Even if we could have, this brass is too conservative to trust both starting spots to young men with no experience at the NFL level. From Pick 60 onwards - 11 WR's had already come off the board and there was no one available that i'd feel comfortable starting on the Outside, let alone them. Anyone drafted from 60 onwards would simply be someone who would replace Hollins or Shorter - underneath Shakir and Samuel on the bottom of the roster and with limited reps. Could you argue that we should have moved on from Shorter without him developing after his redshirt year and after spending a 5th on him last year? Or replaced Hollins a month after signing him? That's a fair conversation to have. But throwing investments away generally isn't his M.O. (whether you agree with it or not). But I digress. I feel it ultimately came down to them deciding not so much that we were good to go after Drafting Coleman. But that the only other unaccounted for hole left in the core was better served with another vet than another Rookie, especially with what was left at 60 and beyond. I expect that to come from a Free Agent or a Trade for someone on a short term contract that wouldn't cost a fortune in Draft Compensation or money. While I wouldn't be opposed to something like Higgins or Aiyuk - I do tend to believe he's not lying when he says he's not interested in trading premium picks for the privelage of handing out a new long term contract at the kind of money they would cost this year. Whether you feel something like adding a Michael Gallup, Odell Beckham Jr., DJ Chark, Michael Thomas, MVS, or Mecole Hardman is still not enough or not - i'd expect at least that, regardless of what he said at the Post-Draft presser.

There's no hole, let alone a "giant one" at Safety. Cole Bishop, as he stated in his Presser, plays both positions. He said the Defense he played in (much like ours) didn't even really have a traditional Strong v. Free designation. Stating he played on the Left Side or the Right Side. Subsequently, Rapp also has some versatility. Last season, he filled in for both Poyer and Hyde depending who was missing time. Between Bishop, Edwards, and Rapp - they'll have both positions covered. They value versatile DB's. If they felt that Bishop, Edwards, and Rapp were only capable of playing one side, they wouldn't have brought in all 3.

Thank you for that. I had been looking on Google to find info on when the Comp Formula ended during the Offseason and couldn't find it anywhere. So I just assumed it was 6/1, like the money changing deadline in contracts. If it's only a few days away, then it would make even less sense to do a 3.5+m signing right now. And the type of FA signing people were short sightedly hoping for or expecting from Beane's quick comment at the presser is going to be that.

Whoa, whoa, whoa! You're misreading into what I said. I don't know how you're getting all of that because I never said ANY of it. I was NOT saying the WR room is fine with my post and that we shouldn't add anyone else. What I was saying was that a few minutes after the Draft, Beane saying during a presser "we worked out a guy today we're going to end up signing" always implied it was someone who wasn't a name signing like a DJ Chark or someone along those lines. Like I said - healthy, productive just last season, name players don't "work out". And if they did do that, it wouldn't be on Draft Day. That's a situation of talking to assistants and being worked out by positional coaches with Beane not having time to meet with them and probably just reviewing a tape and taking others word that they're good. Someone we're paying millions to, Beane is going to dedicate some time to seeing in person and meeting with before committing publicly to signing them. It was clearly someone who is on the fringe, someone who needs to prove they're healthy, or someone who was out of football for a year or more for us to "work them out". In this case, it was the latter. Also, we've got like 3m in Cap Space right now. Someone like Chark or like him is going to cost more than that. Also, to do it now instead of a little over a month from now would cost us a Comp pick. So anything like that will come after June 1st or at least when the Comp qualifying contract deadline ends. And I do hope we look into adding someone at that point. My post was just to say that if you really analyzed the situation from all angles, thinking that statement meant it was going to be one of the name FA left was to be short sightedly setting yourself up for disappointment. It was obvious to me with what was said it was going to be something like this. But he doesn't preclude us from signing someone like a DJ Chark on or after 6/1 and I would expect that we would.

The phrase "we worked out a guy today" meant it was always going to be a Camp Body type guy. You don't "work out" healthy, still producing, name FA's. What sense does it make to sign Mack Hollins sight unseen and then decide that DJ Chark (or someone along those lines) has to prove themselves in a workout? And why would Beane bring in a DJ Chark on the Day of the Draft?

Another one:

And outside of 2022 in Las Vegas, in his 5 other years in the league - he averages 15 catches and 202 yards a year. He's more of a blocker (which is important) and Special Teams player (which was the focus of discussion in his Presser when we signed him) than a key contributor on Offense. If we're relying on Mack Hollins for a big role as a producer on Offense - that's an issue to me.

Claypool I could see having to be "worked out". His career is kind of nowhere and he really is in the "need to prove myself again" stage. Like I said, I just don't see a bigger named, healthier WR feeling like they need to do essentially a tryout or that we'd feel they'd need to workout for us.

I don't know that it's a bigger name. Maybe Thomas would be an exception to see what kind of shape he's in following ending the year on Injured Reserve and being injury plagued throughout the years. But when it comes to bigger name, healthy WR's who played last year and weren't injured like an Odell Beckham Jr., DJ Chark, Michael Gallup, or someone like that - you don't usually "work them out" or do a physical try out. "Working someone out" sounds like a smaller named, lower tier, compete for a roster spot type guy to me. I also wouldn't expect we'd be signing anyone with name value until 6/1. Reason being two fold: 1.) We only have about 3.5m right now and have to sign our Draft Picks (which won't be much but will still cut into that) and 2.) Signing one of the bigger names right now instead of a little over a month from now would likely be at a number that would cancel out one of our two projected Comp picks next season.

I view him as playing more Special Teams here. He'll get relief snaps off the bench and be depth in case of injury. But I view him in more of the Kumerow role for us. He'll probably get a little more snaps than Kumerow, but I don't want to be relying on Mack Hollins for much of a role on Offense - unless we have to.

A few things I disagree with here: - I don't see us keeping 5 OT's. The number is always 4. Either Grable beats out Collins or he'll be released and we'll try to get him back on the Practice Squad. As a Late-6th Round Pick and our 8th Draft Pick, he's more likely to be cut than safe. Everyone after the first 7 picks is essentially a UDFA that really has to earn their spot if in a crowded field (Hardy has the easiest path as they were 1 player thin there when we drafted him). - I don't see Toohill being released in favor of Jonathan. Jonathan lives on our Practice Squad and gets called up when we need him. While I like Jonathan, I think Toohill is the better player with more experience and production. There's a possibility we keep both, but if it comes down to it - I think it will be Toohill. - While I don't see us keeping 12 DL like last season, we'll be keeping more than 9. Specifically, I see us keeping 5 DT's (to go along with 5 DE's). DeShawn Williams will be here. - While Milano, Bernard, Williams, and Ulofoshio will be here, I'm not sure both Morrow and Spector will both be here. I think it will be one or the other. - I don't know if I see us signing a FA CB. I think we'll keep the 5 you listed. Cam Lewis was re-signed in large part for his flexibility to play both Safety and Corner. I think he'll be focusing on Safety. But if we have 2 CB's go down at either Boundary or Nickel, he'll come in there. Other than that - good stuff!

Tyler Boyd is a Pure Slot. We don't need a Slot. We've got Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel (with some Outside Flexibility, but always a much higher percentage Inside), and Dalton Kincaid (a Big Slot that only sometimes lines up with his hand on the line). We need another Boundary guy. The only true Outside guys we have there are Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, and Justin Shorter. Shorter is a complete unknown and Hollins is more of a Blocker/Special Teams guy.

The time to yardage ratio in speed is interesting to me. Tee Higgins for example ran a 4.52 in the 40. Keon Coleman ran a 4.61. Yet when it came to the 10 yard split - Coleman ran it in 1.54 while Higgins ran it in 1.66. Subsequently, everyone's favorite WR Troy Franklin beat them both in the 40 by a good percentage at 4.41. But getting up to that top speed takes him longer than it does Coleman as he ran his 10 yard in 1.61. Some guys reach their top speed faster than others. Coleman while lacking in long end speed, he reaches that top speed quicker than both of them - which makes up for a lot, getting off the line quicker. While he ran a slow 40 - he was the fastest Gauntlet and ran it EXTREMELY smooth: Everyone's focusing on the 40. But there's much more to the story than that. His play speed is very good.

I mean no offense, but I wouldn't consider the players on your list simply being Drafted as being a "hit". I think most of us who did work on these guys could tell that the guys who were Drafted were going to be Drafted somewhere. I would count the "hits" as players being taken where you placed them. There's a disconnect between how you viewed a number of these prospects and how the league as a whole viewed them. A number of guys weren't Drafted near where you had them ranked - whether they were Drafted higher than you had them or lower than where you had them. Granted, teams have way more information than you and I do. Character, work ethic, and medical come into play just as much as the tape itself.

He's incorrect on a Comp Pick in the 6th. That was projected for Dane Jackson's contract with the Panthers but was cancelled out by the Curtis Samuel signing. What we're looking at right now from what we had, what we moved, projected comp picks (from Spotrac's Comp Guy - who reported on the Dane/Samuel cancellation), and what we've acquired is as follows: Round 1 Round 2 (from Minnesota via Houston for Diggs) Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 4 (from Chicago for 2024 5th) Round 4 (Projected Comp for Davis) Round 5 (Projected Comp for Floyd) Round 6 Round 6 (from NYG for Basham and 2025 7th)

I believe he's asking how many have made the 53. Not how many we signed or put on the Practice Squad.

Josh Allen said he watched a lot of Wide Receivers this offseason and that Keon Coleman was the guy he wanted to play with. If Josh thinks he's the guy that will work best with his style - that's all I need to hear.

Well, you know, unless you see them posting videos on TikTok and their Instagram Stories - it's impossible they're putting work in.