Virgil

As I sit and think about this past season, and there's a lot to think about, I can't help but find it odd at how little I reacted to our loss against the Bengals. Maybe, like the team, I was finally worn out from everything that happened and didn't have it in me to get upset. I think being a Super Bowl favorite was the biggest impact, because those expectations are so unrealistic. Someone posted that only 1 team in the last 20 years won the Super Bowl that was actually the favorite at the beginning of the year. That, plus watching our team struggle to put teams away, albeit on an 8 game winning streak, didn't leave me with a lot of optimism against the Bengals. When I think about why I stopped writing the "Thoughts" each week, I really think the expectations removed the fun for me. Or maybe I'm just getting older. I'm in multiple fantasy football leagues, in which I won 3 of them and finished 2nd in another. Even with that, I think this was my last year playing fantasy football. So something has changed. So how do we go from the most complete team, who's everyone's Super Bowl favorites, that's winning by double digit scores to a team that is now considered maybe the 3rd best team in the conference with the gap between 4 and 10 closing quickly? Scouts - Correct me if I'm wrong, but GM's rely on their scouts to build their draft boards. Additionally, most NFL team boards are pretty similar for the first few rounds. Yes, team doctors and interviews could adjust rankings a little, but 1st through 3rd round grades are typically close amongst teams. I'm not saying this to give Beane a pass, but I think the context is relevant. We all know that Beane has struggled with draft success on the offense and defensive lines. It's easy to point out the successes that other teams have with drafting players at this position, but we all know there's typically more failure than success with most teams. To me, I want to see the Bills make adjustments with their scouting department who's making these player evaluations. It feels like every chance we've taken has backfired on us. Spencer Brown has provided nice quality for how he was acquired, but that's not to say he is a lock to be part of our future. Same for our defensive line, I think most of us agree that we will vomit in unison if more high draft capitol on the defensive line. To continue to do so would be the definition of insanity to me. Beane passed his first major test in getting the Bills into a contender and setting us up for success within the cap. Now, we are on to phase 2 in the plan, improving on that success once players are getting paid. I don't worry about the cap with Beane, but I do believe he needs to adjust his team to compensate for our known opportunities. Scheme - I'm not picking on one particular coordinator, but this team has a clear scheme opportunity. If you disagree, let me present you with this. Von Miller goes out, and we can no longer generate a pass rush that gets to the quarterback. The Bills can't seem to find a quality receiver outside of Diggs and sometimes Davis, to the point we brought back Smoke and Beasley. Yet, we release Hodgins who makes an immediate impact for the Giants. Hughes, whom the FO deemed was done, had a very solid season in Houston with no support around him. The Bills play teams with makeshift quarterbacks, but still find ways to get guys open and play us to the wire. We played a decimated Bengals offensive line but still couldn't get to Joe Burrow. The Chiefs got to him all game the next week. The Bengals got pressure on Josh with only three lineman. Our offense almost appears to be a two read system, and then let Josh hero ball kick in. Now granted, the jury is still out regarding if that was Josh making that choice, but most All-22 reviews seem to support scheme issues. Look at Knox in the first half vs second half. Did Know forget how to football and then magically figure it out. Our what about our inconstancy rushing the ball with Cook or Motor? Stats and game film aside, you could just feel the lack of rhythm on offense. On defense, once the playoffs kicked in and opposing teams really focus in their weekly strategy, our defense has folded for two straight years. Evolution - We had the greatest show on turf, and then evolution of cover 2. We had big bodied lineman and rushing attacks, to a spread offense where everyone got tiny on both sides of the ball. McD ran a great defense in Carolina and started one here as well. It's based of a very specific scheme of bend, but don't break. It puts specific players in a position to succeed, while others play a role. I think there's still a debate as to where our defense is a McD defense that Frazier runs, or if this really is a Frazier defense. From my memory, any time McD stepped in and assisted with play calling, the defense showed a solid uptick. Regardless, 5 years of the same defense that gets picked apart in the playoffs is like watching the Yankees. Built for the regular season, but can't lock it down when it matters. I am more inclined to give Dorsey a pass in his first year. I think we saw what Daboll can do with a weaker offensive cast. Scheme clearly matters and I wonder if Daboll and McD's opposition limited Daboll's ability to run the scheme he wanted here. No matter what we do, I hope the plan isn't to run back the same schemes. We need to be more flexible for the regular season as our division evolves, but also ready for the Bengals and Chiefs, who we will be playing for a ticket to the Super Bowl for the next decade. Free Agency - You always have to build your team through the draft. You can't spend money on free agency because you'll run out of money. That's what we always hear and I'm no longer a believer in that philosophy completely. I believe the draft is your path to cheap labor that fills depth and hopefully evolves into key contributors. The evaluation of which players will translate their skills to the NFL is such a crap shoot. However, as we see cap space opportunities and players more likely to take prove it deals, I believe FA focus is something we need to be more involved with. Outside of our terrible O/D Line evaluations, I think Beane's done an overall great job of bringing in FA contributors. Look at the Rams, Chiefs, and Eagles. They did a great job of getting guys on 1 year deals that made a huge difference for their teams. I think we need to start operating in a similar fashion. The Chiefs knocked it out on both sides by having most of their 2022 draft contribute in year one, but I attribute that to Reid's scheme as much as anything else. Hands off McD - In your first few years as a Head Coach, you need to have somethings be familiar to you; and your past success is what earned you the job. I think McD's next step in his HC evolution is to step back on defense completely, accept that a new defensive scheme is necessary, and let that coach do their job. In doing so, also lean more into the offensive side to learn and understand to the point of contribution on gameday. Yes, Reid still runs that offense for the most part, but his system still works and he evolves. McD doesn't, and that's okay. But I truly believe McD is best as a coach for the way he handles players, the culture, and demeanor. We don't need his defensive mind anymore, we need him to bring in coaches with schemes that give us the best chance to win. Frazier not getting a HC interview this year tells you that the rest of the league feels the same way about our defense, stats aside. With all that being said, I figured might as well talk about players too. I'm not going deep, but I think that all options should be on the table for the offensive and defensive line. If we can give Josh 3 full seconds to throw before even considering moving his feet, that would be massive for this offense. Add to that the threat of a rushing attack and we are good. On defense, I'm letting Oliver play this year out. I'm franchise tagging Edmunds and looking for a trade partner. If they don't think they can find a trade partner, let him walk. I am not relying on anyone besides Miller, Oliver, Groot, and Jones as a starter next year. Phillips and Shaq can come back on their min deals, but a FA established guy for a 3rd DE should be a priority (but not through the draft!). Poyer, while he is amazing for us, just can't be brought back with his salary demands. Either a FA cheaper option or the draft will need to replace that. On offense, I'm open to moving Dawkins to RT if needed, but the rest needs to overhauled in FA. Unless they plan on finally going offensive line in the first two rounds, I don't any more flyers on guys who fell. They fell for a reason. Brown, Bates, and Boettger can all compete for jobs, but promised nothing. Davis can also play out his final year, and with solid receivers going for 20 mil per, I think draft in the first two rounds is key. Sadly, there's only so many picks in a draft, so an Edmunds or even Oliver trade would be helpful, but I'm hoping Safety, MLB, WR, and O-Line in the first 5 picks, hopefully extra's in the top 3 rounds. That's all I got everyone. For those that missed the "Thoughts", I apologize. Maybe I'll feel different next year, but I can honestly say I didn't miss writing them. I did miss the interactions with everyone on the board, but that still happens in other ways. I'll still be doing the mock drafts though, so don't worry about that. Go Bills!!

I can’t justify paying him the money he thinks he deserves. He has strung together a full dominating season yet. I wouldn’t want the team to pay him on potential

All Pro/All-Star events are popularity contests based on reputation

This and it’s not even close

5th year option

Digg and Allen can save a ton of money just by converting their salary to bonus. Everyone on that list, I'm bringing back on min deals at best. I'm not paying Edmunds, but maybe he can be franchise and traded. Oliver still has his 5th year coming up. I'm trading anyone on the offensive or defensive line that I feel I can get of value. Just having Jones, Oliver, Miller, back, plus pry Phillips and Lawson back on cheap deals is enough to work with. Boogie and AJ have probably no trade value, so we are probably going to trot the same guys right back out there next year and hope for a different result. The entire offensive line should be blown up, maybe even moving Dawkins to RT. Spencer can battle for a spot, thanks to his low cap number. The rest can be released. Poyer, sorry buddy, but we can't afford you. But here's the thing. If we don't get a better scout team that knows how to evaluate offensive lineman, nothing is going to change. I trust the FO to draft linebackers and secondary, but not offensive or defensive lineman. We also are going to need another receiver. With all that being said, I don't want to see any front 7 players drafted unless it's a replacement MLB or after the 5th round. 1-4 rounds should be offensive lineman and WR. I think Motor is gone. It'll be Cook and Hines next season

Pathetic to have it all end this way. There isn’t a single departing player I would bring back. Blow up the offensive line. Keep Groot, Jones, and Miller….lose the rest. I would bring in an offensive consultant to evaluate this season. Do we have a bad scheme or is Allen really playing hero ball? If no scheme, adjust our offense. Bring in new scouts. We cannot seem to evaluate lineman on either side of the ball. Haven’t drafted a pro bowl player in 4 years. McD gets 2 more years. If we don’t make a Super Bowl by then, we move on

This defensive line, for all the capitol we’ve put into it, is absolutely pathetic

Someone I knew has had tickets since the 1960's. When they tried to log in, they were 1,100 in line. How does that make sense?

I will fight you. We should be banned from drafting defensive linemen in the first two rounds for the next 5 years

25%. I don’t think we can slow them down on offense

Same was true for Miami most of the game and we couldn't get pressure unless we blitzed. Our ineffective defensive line, with all the draft capitol and FA money spent is Beane biggest failure to me

I wonder why the line jumped from -3 to -5 since last night

The lack of pressure without the blitz is alarming. Oliver finally got a sack, but was otherwise quiet. And this was with 2 starters out on the Dolphins line. It’s beyond infuriating considering the money and draft capitol we’ve poured into that unit

I only watched the last 3 drives. I guess they all happened then

They called it two more times after that, if I'm not mistaken. Agreed, you can't crumble, but you also can't be 1st and 25 against that defense on all your future drives.

Is it me, or did the refs heavily influence the game once it was only a 6 point SanFran lead? Granted, I don't know why the offensive linemen kept pushing downfield, but the Seahawks seemed to always be 2nd and 20+. Seahawks were at the 8 yard line and about to score to take a 1 point lead. Penalties, sack fumble, more penalties, and that was all she wrote. Sucks to have the refs influence a game that much

From everything the local reporters have said, Lamar wants fully guaranteed just like Watson and the Ravens have told him it’s never happening. There was a rumor of a large amount fully guaranteed, but I can’t remember how much. Someone in here said 200 mil, and that may be right. Him being his own agent I think will hurt him through all of this. He doesn’t have someone who can actively gauge his market value. Lastly, I think this hurts his value. If I’m a contender, I don’t know I want a guy who’s going to give up a playoff chance for a contract. While they have some receivers hurt, their defense is in good shape and they have as good a chance as ever to make a run. Lamar doesn’t seem to care about that as much.

I actually agree with Watkins. If it weren’t for his future contract, I think Lamar would be playing. Living here in Baltimore, there’s been some smoke to support it

That really sucks. We need Hyde against the Bengals. Go Ravens I guess

I think everyone needs to take a step back and applaud the OP for drinking and posting so early. Well done you sir

If the Ravens can somehow win and we get Hyde back for the AFC Championship, that would be huge!

Shame

Bengals need to pay Higgins, Chase, and Burrow. There situation will change real quick.

So long as you have desperate teams out there like the Browns, you'll always have an owner who will do something dumb to get an advantage. Think about the Raiders, Dolphins, Cowboys, Texans, Cardinals, Browns.... All teams that will just be desperate. I was proud of the Falcons and Saints for not caving to Watson's demands and letting the Browns take that bullet