Beck Water

You didn't answer my question: "Therefore, if the Bills trade Diggs and incur $3M more than the $27.8M cap hit he currently carries for being ON our roster as a very good WR available to play for the Bills, the best on the team last 4 years - we need to replace him. How, and with whom, when we take our limited cap space and turn it into $3M less cap space?"

This is a piece about him last season with the Falcons but interesting attitude: and Interesting times!

This are highlight plays obviously, but one of the Cover1 guys said he thought Hollins was an upgrade on Sherfield (who was an upgrade on Kumerow) and based on these, I might believe it.

Indeed. His comment on the DB he toasted: And another one:

That may be, but that's for a trade MADE after 6/1. It's truth that there's no trade equivalent of the "cut designated post-June 1" where the team is no longer responsible for any guarantees or bonus payments, keeps the cap hit on their payroll until 6/1, then splits the hit over a couple years. I know this has been said before, but let me try again: Diggs is still a talented receiver. Maybe not an elite WR any more, but good to very good (top 10 to top 15), and the best on our current roster. With me so far? You agree with the above, because you've stated you want a 1st round pick for him in trade compensation. Teams don't hand out 1st round picks except for very good WR. So you must think Diggs is still a very good WR. With me so far? Therefore, if the Bills trade Diggs and incur $3M more than the $27.8M cap hit he currently carries for being ON our roster as a very good WR available to play for the Bills, the best on the team last 4 years - we need to replace him. How, and with whom, when we take our limited cap space and turn it into $3M less cap space? Hint: 1st round rookies don't always pan out, and even those who do pan out, don't always do so year 1.

Thanks for posting that. Definitely his own guy, walking to his own drummer but he came across very personable and easy to get along with. I kept looking at his tan lines and trying to figure out what his off-season sport must be. Anyone?

If you're talking about Diggs, he's not 33 he's 30. His cap hit is $27.8M in Buffalo. If he's traded, it rises to $31.1M because of amortized bonuses accelerating into this season. And you didn't ask but before someone else does, there's no such thing as a trade made now, but dated post-June 1. That only applies to cuts. I don't know who those people are, but I've never felt that way so I'm unchanged on wanting us to draft a top WR.

Where have I been trying to argue whether or not TikTokBoi is a "true #1 receiver"? That seems to be a regular straw scarecrow you've inserted here. You've been arguing that Smith-Schuster is mediocre and hasn't been very good for years based on the fact that he contributed little in NE in 2023. My point is simply that isn't a very logical or fact-based evaluation for his performance in KC and previously. 1. KC signed its 2022 3 vet WR within $1.8M of each other, and they were all minescule cap hits. But as players, Smith-Schuster had the best and most consistent prior performance of the 3 before his 2021 injury - that's why I think they were expecting the most from him as a WR that year (and in fact, got the most from him of their WR). They also in the end, paid him the most but because of his previous year's injury and NFL rules were able to package it as "unlikely to be earned incentives" which is smart cap management. They didn't exactly have a lot of cap. 2. After they pay their elite QB, that's what teams do - they have 1 receiver they pay (for KC, that's Kelce) and other than that, it's first contracts and lower-tier FA. Whether they expect "a huge year" is not directly correlated to the player's salary for that reason - do you really want to "go there" to argue expectations and salary are always linked? 3. As far as paying JSS more, for all we know someone did offer, but he chose to go to KC on a "prove it" year to try to parlay a big 2nd contract. Worked. "Elite" is not a label I've tried to apply to TikTokBoi any more than "true #1". If you really want to play the "I'll set up strawmen you aren't actually arguing game", I got better things to do. Where have I been trying to argue whether or not TikTokBoi is a "true #1 receiver"? That seems to be a regular straw scarecrow you've inserted here. You've been arguing that Smith-Schuster is mediocre and hasn't been very good for years based on the fact that he contributed little in NE in 2023. My point is simply that isn't a very logical or fact-based evaluation for his performance in KC and previously. 1. KC signed its 2022 3 vet WR within $1.8M of each other, and they were all minescule cap hits. But as players, Smith-Schuster had the best and most consistent prior performance of the 3 before his 2021 injury - that's why I think they were expecting the most from him as a WR that year (and in fact, got the most from him of their WR). They also in the end, paid him the most but because of his previous year's injury and NFL rules were able to package it as "unlikely to be earned incentives" which is smart cap management. They didn't exactly have a lot of cap. 2. After they pay their elite QB, that's what teams do - they have 1 receiver they pay (for KC, that's Kelce) and other than that, it's first contracts and lower-tier FA. Whether they expect "a huge year" is not directly correlated to the player's salary for that reason - do you really want to "go there" to argue expectations and salary are always linked? 3. As far as paying JSS more, for all we know someone did offer, but he chose to go to KC on a "prove it" year to try to parlay a big 2nd contract. Worked. "Elite" is not a label I've tried to apply to TikTokBoi any more than "true #1". If you really want to play the "I'll set up strawmen you aren't actually arguing game", I got better things to do. I'm not interested in arguing relative resources of Buffalo vs KC, I'm just responding to the points I'm responding to. Where have I been trying to argue whether or not TikTokBoi is a "true #1 receiver"? That seems to be a regular straw scarecrow you've inserted here. You've been arguing that Smith-Schuster is mediocre and hasn't been very good for years based on the fact that he contributed little in NE in 2023. My point is simply that isn't a very logical or fact-based evaluation for his performance in KC and previously. 1. KC signed its 2022 3 vet WR within $1.8M of each other, and they were all minescule cap hits. But as players, Smith-Schuster had the best and most consistent prior performance of the 3 before his 2021 injury - that's why I think they were expecting the most from him as a WR that year (and in fact, got the most from him of their WR). They also in the end, paid him the most but because of his previous year's injury and NFL rules were able to package it as "unlikely to be earned incentives" which is smart cap management. They didn't exactly have a lot of cap. 2. After they pay their elite QB, that's what teams do - they have 1 receiver they pay (for KC, that's Kelce) and other than that, it's first contracts and lower-tier FA. Whether they expect "a huge year" is not directly correlated to the player's salary for that reason - do you really want to "go there" to argue expectations and salary are always linked? 3. As far as paying JSS more, for all we know someone did offer, but he chose to go to KC on a "prove it" year to try to parlay a big 2nd contract. Worked. "Elite" is not a label I've tried to apply to TikTokBoi any more than "true #1". If you really want to play the "I'll set up strawmen you aren't actually arguing game", I got better things to do. I'm not interested in arguing relative resources of Buffalo vs KC, I'm just responding to the points I'm responding to.

I don't think Diggs is a big camping guy.

TBH, I'm not even sure Diggs is trolling. He loves him his cryptic tweets and the 'wutever' he's ready for could be the two women he checked into suites at the same hotel and his plans for the evening, the success of his fashion line - anything.

NP I had to take a calculator to all the bonuses in Spotrac to be sure I had it right. That's actually an interesting question. What makes Diggs "untradeable" to the Bills, is all the amortized bonuses (signing, option, restructure) that would all accelerate into the current year. We have to pay more to cut or trade him than we pay to keep him, AND we need to feel confident we've replaced his average of 111 catches and 1300 yds since 2020 (or at least 100 catches and 1000+ yds). What the trade partner normally takes on is any roster or workout bonuses due, salary and incentives. So those can 100% be reworked to make him a more attractive trade partner. Sometimes the trading team agrees to eat part of the salary, sometimes the player extends his contract and renegotiates, the receiving team can also convert part of his salary to bonus (since they have no bonus already on the book, the trading team ate them). But the part that makes him a "poison pill" for the Bills to move on from - his amortized bonuses that accelerate into now PLUS the need to replace his talent - as far as I know, that's all money the player has already received and I don't think the CBA allows give-backs on those.

Yeah, that's the paradox - if we're willing to move him, either his talent level has plummeted or he's Trouble in the Teepee behind the scenes. Intrinsically, that means another team isn't going to see high value in a WR who'll be almost 31 when the season starts, and who is due $18.5M in salary.

Ah Wat? Diggs has no "cash bonus" due 3/17. His 2024 salary does guarantee on 3/17, but it would still cost the Bills extra cap ($31M vs $27.8M) to trade him, and leave us a gaping hole on offense at WR. And it's his salary, not a cash bonus. The dead cap does NOT include his 2024 salary, just signing and restructure bonuses. His dead cap is not that much larger than his cap hit (only about $3M) but the main problem is where are you gonna get the extra cap AND replace the talent? Maybe if some team is willing to trade us a talented young receiver on their 1st contract but why would they do that? It would, but then we have to replace the talent level. And if another team is willing to give us a 1st for him.....he's still got the talent level.

Yeah! Oh....wait.....

Can you help me understand why you believe this is true? Statistically, in the 4 years before Beasley came to Buffalo (which include his best years with Dallas), he averaged 57 receptions for 589 yds, 32 1D. His best season with Dallas was 75 receptions for 833 yds, 51 1D. In his 4 most recent full seasons, Samuel averaged 64 receptions for 687 yds, 34 1D. His best season was with CAR, Joe Brady as OC: 77 receptions for 851 yds, 39 1D.

I don't follow this logic at all. Shakir got more playing time when he earned it. He saw the field ~1/3 of the time his rookie season and roughly saw 1 target every 14 snaps. He only caught 50% of his targets and had 2 drops on 20 targets - 10%. I wasn't impressed with his release or his routes. I was legit impressed last season - I thought his route running and release took a big jump, he didn't drop a thing, his catch % soared, and 1/3 of his yards were YAC. His increased playing time of >50% snaps reflected that - but he was still seeing 1 target every 13 snaps or so. I did see times when he was open and wasn't targeted. But we also didn't see a lot of the intermediate and option routes Beasley used to run, and for all I thought Shakir really came on I also think there's a reason for that. If Samuel can add those back to the repertoire it can only be good. Harty last season saw 15% of the snaps on offense. He wasn't blocking anyone.

I don't know that the Chargers will do it, but in theory if a player retires the team can request the amortized portion of his signing bonus to be repaid.

Question: Did you see 'pure speed' in Harty? Because when his number was called for the Bills last year, I thought he looked slow. @Buffalo716 what say you? I thought the reason we started seeing Diggs trying to do some gadget stuff from the backfield was because Harty just couldn't get 'er done.

The difference for KC, is that in the KC receiving corps Travis Kelce has always been "Pat's Guy". There were a couple years where Hill had more yards and/or receptions, but Kelce has always been the go-to guy for Mahomes. So when KC traded Hill, they still had "Pat's Guy" I think the real problem with Diggs is that, as I think one of the Cover1 guys put it, "the Bro-mance is Over" with Josh. Reportedly at one point in the 2022 season they were barely talking to one another.

Beck: "JJSS was a very good, at times great, WR in Pitts when he had real QB, and the expectation in KC was that he'd return to form with Mahomes. And he pretty much did, hauling in 78 receptions for 933 yds. His catch % of 77% was insane." SaulGoodman: "He did almost nothing the next season. ..is a mediocre player. He hasn't been very good for years" You know, just as the brokers tell us "past performance doesn't predict future results", having a bad subsequent year doesn't mean the previous one was mediocre. "Eye popping", no, "number 1 receiver", no., but when KC signed him to an incentive-laden 1 year, $3.8M contract (it had $5.5M in incentives that he met), they were expecting him to be what he had been in Pittsburgh - a very good #2 WR who had moments of great when paired with a great QB and other receiving talent (in KC, that would be Kelce). And with 77% catch %, 78 receptions, 933 and handing over those $5.5M in incentives, that's exactly what KC got. But hey - the fact that he played badly in 2023 in NE must mean yOU're RIgHt!

At the point where Beane signed Diggs to his contract extension in the 2022 off-season, Diggs had been the #1 WR in the league in 2020 and was #5 in targets, #8 in yards in 2021. It's kind of hard to argue that's "good but not elite". #1 is usually .....elite. It's also worth noting that at the time his contract was signed, it slotted in with his production. Currently on average value, Diggs is the #5 paid WR. Is that an over-value? Diggs was #13 in the league for receiving yards last season, #7 for targets and #7 for receptions. It's worth noting that roughly half (9) of the top 20 WR for receiving yards in the league last year are playing on their rookie deals. That goes for 5 of the 11 WR who had more yards than Diggs - Amon-Ra St Brown, Puka Nacua, Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins, and Ja'marr Chase. So Diggs is paid at #5 and produced as #8 of the WR who are on their 2nd contracts. It's pretty hard to make an argument that it was a "terrible decision" or that it's one of the "worst contracts in the NFL" based on fact. In terms of cap hit, a big problem is that the Bills have a couple very highly paid players who in the last 2 years have a much bigger gap between their availability/level of play vs. their contract in Tre' White and Von Miller.

I think it's entirely possible that Gabe has fewer targets but a higher catch % and fewer interceptions against him in Jax. But that may go with fewer receptions and lower yards.

Um...unclear on the point. We don't have Kelce. As a TE, he's a unicorn. We hope Kincaid will be utilized and develop to Sam LaPorta/TJ Hockenson levels, but Kelce or Kittle would be a big Stretch Goal. So I think we better draft a WR

Well.....context matters. If your QB is the former #1 overall pick in the draft, is widely regarded as one of the best technical passers in the game, you're a coach who prides yourself on teaching offense, and you've already got a WR in the room who was a Bust in Buffalo but started looking like a legit NFL WR on your watch (Zay Jones), you might have a better case for yourself than otherwise. But I don't think he puts it that way. I think when you roll the Gabe Davis hightlights, there's a good bit of "Gabe read the defense correctly and chose the right route option there, that INT is not on Gabe" "WTF was Allen thinking, chucking it into triple coverage there, that INT is not on Gabe" and everyone else in the room nods because he's right.

The Chiefs #1 receiver is a TE named Kelce.