Beck Water

I don't think it stems from the Elam situation. I think it stems from fan frustration with players who weren't really pulling their weight (example: McKenzie as a slot receiver) and having seen a few flashes from Shakir, feeling he was so much better and it was just the coaches being stupid to not play him, instead of observing his drop rate and his low catch % and apparent route running mistakes and having a little faith that the coaches, professionals, might actually make better decisions than we fans.

At the pro days, do you know if the teams get to meet with the players? Or is it just watch them work out?

I think Kurt Warner did a dissection of that play where he would disagree with you there. He's just in the HOF so I guess, what does he know? I don't think it's a clear cut "undisciplined mistake that got him beat", either, though. I think the decision is more nuanced. And Josh's response to questions indicated that he saw his failure on the play as not getting "good pocket movement" in the pocket he had, to be able to set up and throw accurately to Shakir for a TD. Kurt Warner has on multiple occasions acknowledged that Josh Allen can physically do things he couldn't do, so the decision making is different. Warner (and Brady, TBH) made his bag and earned his gold jacket by being able to read defenses instantly and choose the throw with the greatest chance of success (this isn't the same as taking the throw with the highest completion percentage, which might not have the highest success percentage of getting the first down). Josh Allen can create a throw with a higher success probability by going "off schedule" and extending a play. It's a blessing. And he's steeped in that killer instinct: "Brett Favre said Touchdowns First, Coach!". But it's also a curse. Sometimes it's a better decision to take that crosser to Diggs for the first, move the chains, keep the ball, and gain more chances to score. And Warner has openly said that he doesn't know how you coach or channel someone like Josh, who has those capabilities to create and extend that very few other QB have, into seeing the field differently and making different decisions. The reason I can't get all "fluffed up" about whether Josh Allen is hitting the weight room and throwing with his receivers on March 4th and March 20th or April 1st or whenever, is because that's not where I see him as needing to take the biggest steps. McDermott has said it: where Josh needs to improve, is in Decision Making. And not just decision making in shorts and a red t-shirt, whether on a practice field or watching film: decision making in the heat of it on the field with 315 lb behemoths looking to flatten him like a buuuuug and his adrenaline kicked up 100x. I don't know how you simulate that in practice. I'm not sure that Jordan Palmer is the right guy to help Allen here. It's not like his other notable QB pupils, like Sam Darnold, are lighting the world on fire with their brilliant field vision and decision making. I do think Brian Daboll had the right combination of "carrots and sticks" to get into Allen's head and motivate him to watch film and push his decision making. I think whatever approach Dorsey was trying as OC, which may have involved treating Allen like the tablet in his Miami Meltdown, kind of backfired. But what approach Allen is taking in the off season, that's where he needs to go. He didn't say "training camp" though. OTAs start mid to late April.

To be fair, a lot of media pundits were "all over" talking to Josh during and after his "sea change" in completion % from 59% in 2019 to 69% in 2020. That kind of improvement was regarded as pretty much unprecedented, and coupled with a passing yards jump from 3089 to 4544, both Josh Allen and Jordan Palmer were highly in demand to talk about "what happened?" "howdja duit?" I think Allen recognized he had a media obligation and obliged, but while he's backslid some from the completion %, the overall improvement has remained, so it's really no longer a story. It's clear it wasn't a flash in the pan, and now several other QBs have made similar improvements (and several have not). I could be wrong, but I also think that at heart, Josh is really a private person and would just as soon have the media butt out and stay out of his off season. I think (and I have no substantiation about this) he's had some tension with Jordan Palmer, partly because Jordan was speaking about (and sometimes for) Josh, A Lot, on his media circuit (including in at least one instance on their QB podcast something Josh clearly wasn't down to talk about because it didn't sound great). It wouldn't surprise me if Josh went looking for another QB guru who was willing to work with him quietly and not use him as a free ride to promote himself and his biz. Now whether that's true, and whether whoever he's found is as good, better, not as good, same as Palmer - can't tell you.

Good to know! Well.... there was a "take" of 9-108-9 (that was serious - another joked 'in the playoffs"). There were a couple of takes of about or less than 300 yds - 312, 297, 230 along with 26, 32, and 28 receptions. And another similar take of 35-375-2. Some of them were troll takes, but a couple were, I think, just based on supposedly McDermott "holds back" rookies and stubbornly refuses to play them even when they're fantasmagorical. Which I don't think is true - with a good team, rookies play when they play well enough to displace the veteran ahead of them, not just for the sake of putting them out there and getting them snaps. Then of course there were some serious, but outlandish takes on the high side in addition to a couple of jokesters. And, I learned what the stats functions are called and how to sort data in Libreoffice, so I got what I came for.

You are correct! Damn, I hated that London game. They had us play on crappy turf over cement, with no fill, and we had injuries in droves. Not really. Meaning no offense, but is there a reason I should want to know?

They must have really felt Van Demark came on as a swing tackle. We seem pretty thin there to me as well. Our starting OLmen hung amazingly tough last year. The OLman who missed the most snaps last season (knock wood!) was Dion Dawkins - who still played >96% of the snaps! Morse played 97%. We should be as lucky this season, so I agree we need to invest.

Do you know what they think about Kevin Jarvis? He's listed on some sites as an OT, but Draft Diamonds had this to say about him and the Bills have him listed as a G: https://nfldraftdiamonds.com/2022/04/kevin-jarvis/

Quality player. But 34, missed 4 games last season and 13 games the season before. Hasn't played more than 13 games of a season since.....2015? So that's LT, who's the rest of the line?

Knox did miss 5 games and was arguably playing hampered in a couple where he did take snaps. But, for the games Knox played, his R/G and Y/G were career lows. And, in his 5 year career, Knox has never broken 50 receptions or 600 yds per season.

I don't think Gunner provided an actual quote. The interpretation is correct and consistent with what Allen has said - Jordan said Allen had "mastery of his stroke" and didn't have to work on his throwing mechanics as much, and Allen has said he doesn't start working out like OTAs right after the season ends. That doesn't mean he doesn't work or (as he said after the season) doesn't see a need to work. [to clarify, after this past season, Allen said he needed to work on his throwing motion with "appropriate people" because injuries had gotten it off kilter during the season] It was a podcast with Jordan Palmer and Kyle Allen. You could Google. I think they call it "the QB Room". It was long and contained a lot of rambling and nonsense, so I'm not inclined to search for or transcribe it. This isn't a court of law. But to have a meaningful discussion, there really needs to be a start from a foundation of actual solid information. And what we have here is people taking snippets and sentences from entertainment-type "shooting the bull" podcasts and creating a House of Cards inference about how hard Allen works and whether it's more or less hard than he worked as a rookie. Which, even if he does less early on in the off season or works differently due to rehabbing his elbow or shoulder or what have you, doesn't mean he doesn't work as hard in the aggregate. I really shouldn't have to lay that out in terms of specifics to working adults. With that, and meaning no offense, I'm out of here; I think I've made my point about as well as I can about the pustulant nature of trying to have a comparative discussion about something we really all know very little about (his off-season work, how much he does, what, and when; and how it compares to previous years). I believe I've also made my point about as well as I can that this does not equate to objecting to any critique of Josh Allen or to placing him above reproach, but for goodness sake, can we do it in some manner which begins with known facts, like in game performance?

I do appreciate the kind words, but I also posted data, so it's more correctly "according to the data".

Who is the Jets OL though? Who have they added there?

Could you expand a little bit on this? I'm not a Nathaniel Hackett fan, but he did have two outstanding years with Rodgers in Green Bay. Of course, that was with 37 year old Rodgers, not the 41 year old "post Achilles" version, and he legit had outstanding talent at RB and WR with Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. I really like Garrett Wilson, but Jets paying $12M to Allen Lazard and signing Mike Williams, Not Same Thing. I like Breece Hall, too, but he's no Aaron Jones.

Does Alabama have any good WR? Serious question....

311/673, #mathforall Of guys with >20 receptions, James Cook was unsurprisingly the best YAC man, which of course, is what you expect from an RB. 89% YAC. Of the receivers, Shakir also had 46% of his YAC, 7.2 Y/R. Knox was similar to Kincaid in Y/R and had a slightly higher percentage (but only 22 receptions to Kincaid's 73)

I think that's a fairly good assessment. I differ a little bit in a couple places. WR: I think WR high in the draft (I don't insist on Rd 1 or lobby for a trade-up) is a necessity, and maybe double down later in the draft, as they did with Elam/Benford. I agree with ? @GunnerBill (I think) that the Bills not restructuring Diggs contract, indicates that Beane sees the writing on the wall and wants to move on when feasible, but I think they also realize they need to "up" their WR game and have at least 2 "good" WR plus a good slot - as they did in '20 with Diggs, Brown, and Beasley and in '21 with Diggs, Sanders/Davis and Beasley. Curtis Samuel should fill that Beasley role. I was impressed by the jump Shakir took last year, but I'm not persuaded he's scaring anyone. More, please. DL: Depending upon who they sign in FA, I hate to say it but I view DT as a crying need. Right now we have Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones, and Eli Ankou backing them up. Jones only played 7 games last season, and only 60% of the 1TDT snaps the year before. We have the 2 starters, but even if we move away from McDermotts heavy rotation we need more depth for injuries. You're right that DE is still a need, with our rotation being Rousseau, the Ghost of Von Miller, and Epenesa right now, with Casey Toohill and Kingsley Jonathan in the mix. We could really use a starter opposite Rousseau (replacement for Floyd) OL - I think you're correct that we have our starters penciled in, but I'm not happy with Spencer Brown at RT and I think they should look for a C they can develop (not necessarily a "utility knife" C/LG/RG backup) and depth at G. Keep in mind while McGovern is happy to play C, he really hasn't done so in the NFL, and when he did, it was with a different technique than Kromer teaches. LB - still need depth, I think. I guess we'll see what Dorian Williams looks like, and in theory Nicholas Morrow should be an upgrade to The Ghost of AJ Klein, but I dunno about Baylon Spector. Beck to Beane: "Please Sir, Can we have Some More?" Safety - Ugh! You may be happy with the idea of Rapp and Edwards starting, but my limbic system alerts at the thought. I think Edwards actually has some promise, but I thought Rapp was a danger to his fellow Bills last year. Has Edwards contract been reported yet? It's not up on Spotrac as of...right now. CB - I think Benford and Douglas start (sounds like a law firm!) but I hope Elam finally takes a step, and I'm not as persuaded by Cam Lewis as some here are. At a critical and high injury rate position like that, we need depth. I think Beane and McDermott will look to the draft. Overall, I agree that we have a decent set of starters already on the roster, but I think we need about 3 upgrades to feel confident.

I wasn't gonna go there but since you did - @NewEra did @FireChans pay up?

Jordan Palmer and Kyle Allen talked about it on one of the podcasts. Josh clearly doesn't start as early as he did his first years - but he also had significant throwing arm injuries the last 2 seasons, so we don't know how medical advice played into that. I also have the impression that Josh may have changed who he works with, as he talked (post season this year) about making sure he spent time with the "appropriate people" working on his throwing mechanics because with the shoulder injury, he reverted and struggled a bit during the season. So you may well be correct that Josh "dialed back" his relationship with Palmer, but it doesn't follow he's not working with someone. This is hogwash. As I've said, Josh gets criticism here - including from me - but there's a big difference between fact-based criticism based on what is objectively on film and film analysis by people who know what they're seeing (Kurt Warner, JT O'Sullivan, Greg Cosell, etc) and fluffing up rampant speculation about how hard the guy works or doesn't work based on a handful of breadcrumbs and no real knowledge of his off-season schedule. I dispute that right here and now. He doesn't start lifting weights and throwing 4x/week as early as he did his first few seasons (and there may be medical advice that plays into that) but it doesn't mean he doesn't work hard when he works. And he seems to be into flexibility training - "stretch and strengthen" is a different approach, which I understand Tom Brady promoted. That's your interpretation. The actual transcript of the Bussin' with the Boys interview does not necessarily support your interpretation. This was discussed ad nauseum after the actual interview last season.

The Chiefs D last year wasn't just good - they "kicked butt and took names". #2 in scoring, #3 in pts per drive, average drive of 6 plays, #4 for passing yards and passing TD and rushing TDs. That's not a good defense, that's a great defense and if it wasn't called "great", it was only by people who weren't paying attention. Spagnuolo definitely deserves another shot at a head coaching job

For calibration purposes, check out his take on Dalton Kincaid from last June, quoted here: I would like to see an exact quote or a transcript where he says those words.

OK, so "usually" = last 6 years. Got it. Just realize that another way to look at it is Mahomes has won 50%, which is a coin toss. Now of course, getting the chance to flip that coin, is outstanding. But I do kind of wonder if KC might be getting a little full of themselves.

Chandler's post of his scouting assessment/highlight film got me looking for the "predict his stats" thread from last June, found here: Apologies for 2 Kincaid threads on the board at once, but since I put a good bit of work into this and it references an old thread, I thought it deserved its own play. Mods, if you disagree and merge, I won't be salty. Since I'm trying to learn the stats functions in LibreOffice, I decided to tablulate. Did the first 10 pages of a 14 page thread because I ran out of room on the paper I jotted things on. Eliminated obvious jokesters and incomplete predictions. Average prediction: 52 receptions, 551 yds, 6 TD Standard deviation: +/- 19 receptions, 252 yds, 2 TD Range: 9-109 receptions, 108-1376 yds, 2-13 TD (and yes, I did eliminate a couple of obvious jokesters, the outlandish ones I included seemed serious) Dalton's actual stats: 73 receptions, 673 yds, 2 TD. So "on average" he exceeded expectations except in the matter of TD. He played 63% of offensive snaps. Special mention to @NewEra, @Kirby Jackson, and especially @KingBoots8 who nailed his catches and yards almost exactly. I will give their judgement a little *bump* in my mind going forward: and a special raspberry to a guy who is either Eyore as a Bills fan, or a troll, @KDIGGZ for his take. Calibrate everything he says on this board accordingly.

We see from the record, that he had 4 drops on 91 targets (comparison: Knox as rookie 10 drops on 50 targets; Shakir as rookie 2 drops on 20 targets) He had an 80% catch rate. I don't understand how that gets described as "numerous drops". If you're catching 80% as a rookie, that's, like, Good. Also from the record, 46% of his yards, were YAC. So he may be avoiding/breaking more tackles than you think. Agree completely here. We had a number of run plays or screens blown up where Kincaid was asked to block in-line and just straight-out whiffed. He did a lot better downfield where what's needed is to be in the right place at the right time to just get in the way long enough to prevent the tackle.

I disagree some with some of what Chandler posted, but he's right that Kincaid is not an impressive blocker.