Chaos

Mine is consistent with the fact that every player they have met with that is a likely first round target, is already off the board in your mock. For example. I don't think they take Brents in the first round if he is the top rated guy they met with. I just don't think Hyatt is a first round target, simply because they met with him.

I don't think you mind reading is any better than mine regarding this pick.

We will have to agree to disagree. I agree they are targeting a WR in round 1. I disagree that they will settle for Hyatt, or any of the receivers left on the board. So that means a different position. If it must be offense, then it has to be Mayer or a lineman. I think Avila is the best lineman left based on your picks. If it does not have to be offense, then Campbell and Anudike-Uzomah are the best choices. This is how I have narrowed it down.

These are my guesses as to what I think they will do. There is a pretty good chance it is none of these three or Hyatt. And we are making a big assumption about what 25 players are off the board in front of them. Based on the choices left after the 25 you removed, I will stick by my guesses. I think they know the red zone is the offensive week spot, not moving between the 20;s, and I think they know they have a gap without Von Miller for a chunk of the season. Its a tough division. Winning the division is not a given this year.

I would take Mayer, Anudike-Uzomah, or Campbell ahead of Hyatt. In that order, for these reasons. 1)Mayer because I think he will help the redzone offense more than Hyatt. Redzone is the weak spot. Consider Avila for the same reason. Hyatt just does not move the needle where we need help. His one trick matters less in the red zone 2)Anudike-Uzomah. Von Miller is missing a lot of the season, and Felix can help fill that gap, and will likely give 5 years at a high value position. 3)Campbell has a higher floor than Hyatt and fills what is percieved as a position of need.

When I look at the Bills main strength, it is the fact that punt fewer times than any other team in the league, in the regular season. This means they are already about the best at moving the ball between the 20's. There weakness seems to be a type of toughness and clutchiness (probably not a real word) in the playoffs. In 2022, the Bills were ninth in redzone offense. I don't see how Hyatt really moves the needle for the Bills. The Bills don't use TE's well between the 20s (my theory, is that there is no need to) but do use Knox well in the redzone. I think Mayer would do more to improve the Bills redzone offense than Hyatt would. I would be sad to take Hyatt, and see Mayer go to the Bengals on the next pick.

This is my "lets win it all in 2023" effort. 1) Make the trade for Derrick Henry. I think this is doable (Hines is part of the trade for cap reasons). Henry, Harris & Cook is a scary RB room 2) Trade up for JSN - This is the missing weapon. 3) Dorian Williams, Nick Herbig hopefully can find a way to contribute at LB. Maybe Abdullah as well Some other things just fell, Musgrave at 59, Zavala at 130. If we did this and Tre White plays back to form, and the secondary stayed healthy, this would be a tough team to beat.

As a fiscal matter, you are 100% correct. If for some reason, the Bills brain trust thinks Gibbs or another low value position player is the missing link to a Super Bowl for the 2023 season, it could be logical to not follow the logical fiscal decision.

The historical stickouts are interesting, but hoping for people to identify some 2023 draft prospects.

Donald's RAS Score is 9.7. He does not have elite size, but has elite stats for every athletic measurable

Some NFL players are great at football and have great athletic measurables, among all-pros Lane Johnson and Patrick Surtain have the best "measurables". Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams have pretty poor measureables. This spreadsheet aligns all of the all-pro players RAS scores vs their Bills counterpart. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uygV0zc33qOS74JEx40meuIKOg-MhDssyil_rbTvFBA/edit?usp=sharing SIDE NOTE. Every offensive all-pro has below elite height. I found that interesting. I am curious as too who people think are the best NFL players who are good at football, despite poor measurables, with the same question for the 2023 draft prospects?

You give me too much credit. Just hopeful, the Beane is correct that Brown will make progress this year, in year three of his potential. But with the advantage of the rookie contracts, the goal should be to get rookies who contribute instantly, rather than to develop them for the next team that signs them as a free agent.

Buddy Nix didn't believe in RAS. He went by his gut.

He may be younger and next year he won't be on a rookie contract. He won't likely be affordable by the Bills.

Can Murray block the edge guys Spencer Brown whiffs on?

the bolded part is a big part of this. Its useful for comparison, if the conditions are true, but it doesn't rule out the better prospect if they happen to be older. And again, you only get the first five years for sure.

Is it better to draft 20 year olds , develop them, and then not be able to afford to resign them when their rookie contracts are up. The goal for even first round draft picks in the modern NFL is to get 5 productive years on rookie contracts. Full stop.

Seems like there is a pretty good chance if only one of the linebackers was in the poll, that LB would win.

two likely starters with the first two picks. An interesting o weapon with the third pick. E Olivers replacement with the fourth pick. Another addition to LB room with the fifth, and one of the fastest CBs in the draft with the 6th.

Disagree. We are going to line someone up at TE. If they are not being used, cheaper is better. And if you can have cheaper without losing quality that is a potential win. If another team is willing to give up a clear WR2 for Knox, drafting Kincaid in reality becomes a WR2 pick. If no one wants Dawson for anything of value, then it makes no sense. The mock draft simulation sites accept George Pickens from Pittsburgh, even up for Knox. That seems wrong to me. But I would be excited to roll out Kincaid/Pickens in 2023 (plus have a bunch of cap space). I don't understand how people can say they don't like a two sided deal with only one side known. I don't know what Knox would attract, maybe nothing. That is why I asked the question.

Depends on his trade value. Kincaid is a TE1. If Dorsey isn't going to use TE (we punt fewer times than any other team, I am not sure we are in desperate need of a chain moving strategy) it might make more sense to have a TE1 under a rookie contract, rather than under a very expensive (for the position) vet contract.