Chaos

Feel better about the offense. I think the improvements on the line and Kincaid are meaningful improvements. Worse on the defense. Last year we started with a fully healthy Von Miller, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, and an expecation that Tre White could come back to form. Now all four of those players are a year older and a question mark coming into the season. Feel neutral on coaching. McDermott's weaknesses as a coach are game day management. Its not clear to me how taking on double duty has HC and DC is going to help him improve his game day performances. In reality it means t the five games Edmunds missed since 2019 are not enough for a meaningful statistical comparsion.

I expect Kincaid to be the offensive rookie of the year

We need the coaching staff to extend their comfort zone. http://www.sportpsychologytoday.com/youth-sports-psychology/playing-beyond-your-comfort-zone/#:~:text=A comfort zone based on how you expect,to avoid making mistakes and protect your lead.

I didn't know who Sean McVay was (other than John McVay's grandson), Nick Sirianis or Zac Taylor were before they became head coaches. All have had more playoff success than McDermott. I doubt you knew who any of those guys were. I doubt you were banging the drum to hire Sean McDermott. So can we all agree to not pretend we know the universe of potential head coaches, and are also certain none could be better than McDermott?

They are not random facts. They are results of the collective decisions of GMs and Owners for generations. HC's are relieved based on results. McDermott's results have gotten him as far as HCs get in the NFL without getting to the next step. Its history.

Its not me. It is virtually every owner and GM in the history of the NFL. Marvin Lewis and Jeff Fishers long careers are viewed as failures by their teams in hindsight. Its a simple fact, McDermott is the longest tenured coach in the NFL currently not to appear in a Super Bowl. And he does not have the "no franchise QB excuse". Historically it doesn't last. Another season or two, and it becomes an historic outlier. You are so wrong. Allen is far better than Kelly and Moon, and ranks much higher among his peers than either every did. Don't clown people with nonsense.

The simplest thing for fans is Mr. McDermott leads the team to a super bowl win this year. I think we all hope for this. If McDermott had the same exact record with Tyrod Taylor as QB, we would all be demanding his enshrinment in Canton, and furious with Beane for not getting a better QB. Allen is the level of QB coaches are expected to win Super Bowls with. He is already second, behind only Dan Marino, as the best QB not to win a Super Bowl. This is why McDermott should be viewed as on the hot seat.

It seems many many people think the coaching choices are limited to McDermott, Rex Ryan and Dick Jauron. If McDermott is replaced, the next coach could do worse. But there is no actual reason to assume that.

Maybe that would be a poll response. But in reality guys who have won super bowls like doug pederson and ron rivera and mike mccarthy have gotten fired. McDermott is currently the longest tenured NFL HC without a super bowl appearance. So most teams, in practice, would likely cut ties if the Bills don't move forward this year.

I think this is what fans would like to think. But championships are generally won by teams with the best talent / coaching combination. Players don't even need to like each other.

The big question. Will we have more or less bizarre ill-timed defensive timeouts?

this is not at all clear. Mixed record. Two super bowl appearances and win before turning 40. With Jared Goff and Matt Stafford. McVay is a rock star.

good catch. lost to the broncos. salt in the wound

The Atlanta Falcons were 3-13 in 1996. In 1997 Reeves joined. In 1998 The Falcons went 14-2 and lost to the falcons in the Super Bowl. His turn around credentials are actually more solid than McDermotts. So the Reeves comparison maybe overly generous.

wierd. never said it was scientific. I think its quite clearly subjective.

My simple methology for evaluating coaches, is to put them into one of three categories. (this applies to all sports and all levels). Generates results better than the talent on the roster would indicate Achieves the results the talent on the roster would indicate Achieves results worse than the talent on the roster would indicate. Four guys in the NFL seem to consistently fall into category 1. John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid and and Bill Belichek. I can't remember a single season where I felt like coaching held back thier respective teams. I think Reid and Belichek have been blessed with better talent than Tomlin and Reid over time. I don't think you really evaluate a coach on a single season. By that metric Doug Pederson winning the super bowl with Nick Foles at QB, makes him the greatest coach of the 21st century. I think Zac Taylor and Sean McVay can make the case they have gotten the most of out thier rosters, but they don't quite have the longevity of the other guys. Not sure where I put Pete Carroll. I thought his most successful teams were stacked. But ex-Seahawks don't seem to shine elsewhere. (maybe recency bias from R. Wilson). So maybe Carroll is getting the most out the team. Among recent coaches I think Adam Gase is the leading example of cateogory three. Mike McCarthy may belong thier despite having actually won a super bowl. In history I think Joe Gibbs was the best for achieving results exceeding the roster. Are these three categories a reasonable summary way to evaluate a coach?

Marty never had one of the top 3 QBs in his prime. I think Dan Reeves is the better comparison. Good coach, just not as good as Mike Shanahan.

Agree he provided good leadership on. The Hamlin situation. As did Zac Taylor. I don’t agree with any of the rest of your assessment

what makes you think this?

Its a great skill to consistently succeed in lowering the benchmarks of success. Many long careers are based on this simple strategy.

I think if the Bills don't win the division, and the division winner goes further in the playoffs than the Bills, that nearly catostrophic.

Whats would be a catastrophe?

I did not have the energy to read the whole thread. What is the speculation on what McDermott is "very worried" about? Is McDermott concerned this will negatively impact Digg's performance? Is McDermott concerned Diggs will not play this year? Is McDermott concerned he has lost the locker room?

If the Dolphins, Jets or Patriots make it deeper into the playoffs than the Bills, 2023 could be McDermott's final season as the head coach of the Bills. It would be hard to understand the point of bringing him back after that. But another trip to the divisional round with some combination of the Bengals, Chiefs, Ravens advancing to the championship game probably keeps McDermott in the Marvin Lewis/ Dan Reeves sweet spot.

This is a summary of everything the posters on TBD know for certain about this situation: