Mikie2times

He had Luke Kuechly in Carolina and then went on to spend a premium asset on Edwards. He doesn't want Reggie Ragland and I don't think he wants Bernard either. He wants a physical freak and is willing to invest to get it. We just had so many priorities this offseason and likely next as well, I'm not sure we can afford to go that direction.

My concern with the Ravens is our success was during the Greg Roman era. We have only played them one time in Monkens system and Lamar has been in MVP contention both years they have been in it. Not to mention they have the #1 ranked EPA defense in football since week 8. The Ravens are a damn good team if Lamar performs adequately. Which isn't to say I want anything to do with the Bengals, I just can't help but dismiss our previous performances vs Baltimore in the Greg Roman era. I don't think they're worth any warm and fuzzies at this point.

Regardless if you use it, EPA is more accurate in forecasting future results than Yards or Points. Since week 8 we are 19th in EPA defense and 30th when excluding turnovers. So if we fail to generate a turnover (as has been the case in most our playoff losses) we should expect about the league worse result. Anytime you can adjust for trials it makes it more accurate. Which is why yard per play is more valuable than yards as a future predicator. EPA takes that concept further. I also agree on using per drive data if possible. It's just logical to do so. In no situations is one thing perfect but you use the best indicators the most intelligent ways you can. In that, I have never used Yards or Points.

I think most of us are guys that would like to go somewhere warm where we are featured more

And yet I think only two of those guys have seen a pro bowl. The fact is we have a lot of above average players. Very few great ones.

He is becoming the Ertz of defense

Because I’m showing you that teams consistently overcome the random it’s a straw man argument? By all means, enlighten me.

They trailed 20-10 in one of the games vs the 49ers. Went to OT in the other. Went to OT in one of the Bengals games. Led by 3 in the 4th quarter of the other. Pretty sure Mahomes had plenty of incentive to “dial” it in. It just wasn’t as easy as it is vs us to do so.

I was trying to follow your method of justifying our postseason defense and I finally had to turn to mind altering substances. So you don’t acknowledge that the Chiefs have been better against the Bills than other teams they have played multiple times in the playoffs (and the Bengals for that matter). But if you did acknowledge that, you would make it conditional that Mahomes plays extra good against us because the games are close ( wasn’t the Super Bowl close?) or that we are emotionally sad or we are injured. I think all the bases have been covered.

Ray Charles showed these to me and said it seems to be fairly certain Mahomes plays the best vs Buffalo.

Those are the defensive stats in the playoffs for teams that have faced Mahomes more than once. Your argument is the defense didn’t play any worse than other teams and if they did, it wouldn’t have mattered. So you can see the performance right there of the Bengals and 49ers vs Mahomes compared to us. The last two playoff games vs the Chiefs we missed a game tying FG and lost in OT. So it seems like a pretty big stretch to say if we forced an INT or multiple INT’s or reduced a completion % by 8 points, that it just wouldn’t matter.

If Allen would have gotten the performance Burrow, Jimmy G, or Purdy had would we have won? Two out of three? It looks like in comparing the three that its a pretty significant difference in performance vs Mahomes?

The Chiefs have been to 6 straight AFC championships. Before that, the Patriots went to 8 straight. Being enlightened on this subject has nothing to do with recognizing the randomness. It has to do with recognizing how it’s not random. When your high end talent is lower, and your coaching is worse, you don’t advance and you don’t advance in a consistent way. While others do advance and they do so in a consistent way as well.

Being Ohio States father, they would at least keep it in the family

How many elite talents does that include?

I’m getting closer to this view. I imagine when I review Pro Bowl and All Pro players Buffalo will be among the lowest in football in Allen’s time. We had those studies that show the Bills play more draft picks than just about anybody? So what? That could just as easily mean we are more committed to our draft picks than other teams. Which is likely true. The truth is, it’s very hard to tell how good we are at HC and GM with a player like Allen. He covers up so many issues. I mean, most people here think Beane is elite. Which at times feels accurate, but at the end of the day this team has less talent than a lot of teams built by Whaley or Donahue. I applaud Beanes exhaustive approach to adding depth. But we just don’t have the number of difference makers you would expect on a Super Bowl contender. All this isn’t to say we should target Beane as inferior. More, we shouldn’t just assume he is superior because we win. It is nearly impossible to picture Josh Allen not competitive for the playoffs. He would do so on the Giants this year. That’s just what he brings.

He was most successful at FSU as a big slot. It makes sense if he wasn’t the best at separating

Has the loser of the Michigan / Ohio State game ever won a national title?

Can Rookie Nix get 3-5 yards a play with a degree of efficiency? Rookie Maye was able to do it. Russell Wilson was able to do it. Payton is a very good offensive game planner. He will value TOP and parlay keeping the ball away from our offense with a pretty solid defense of his own. He knows the recipe to beat us. I just don't think it's going to be the blowout everybody thinks.

As certain I have been to over our playoff demise, a chance exists Baltimore just doesn’t show well. They haven’t exactly been a playoff juggernaut and are arguably just as challenged as we are in the post season. Then you have to be ok with our chances in KC if that happened. Our team is built more around defending them than anybody else. It would be a close game (“I would think”). Denver could give us some issues. They moved the ball pretty easily on a better defense last year. Payton is + over McD in a spot like this. I expect that will end up being a close game. Crazy to think, but Bo Nix will probably be the best QB we faced in the wild card round since 150 years old Phillip Rivers.

This post could have been better if it was healthy

Without a hall of fame QB you likely don’t have success and stability at head coach. One thing I guarantee is it is a hell of a lot easier to draw the line to a QB as a reason a team is successful than a head coach. I don’t think one example exists where a great HC hasn’t had a great QB. Plenty exist the other way. Except Cincinnati this year is a massive anomaly in this data compared to the entire sample

Brady was probably not the best example, I will agree with that. I think AV has just as much likelihood, if not more, to pull in factors outside of what the individual player contributes. As they say, perfection is the enemy of progress. I think this information is helpful in progressing to the most accurate place we can get in understanding how QB play impacts the bottom line. Perfect, it is not.

It's not a deceleration for QBR, but of the readily available data points that is best. If not that, what would it be from your view (Again, readily available). Pure rating doesn't even include rushing outputs? This is pro football reference historical data. Ultimately the data is good enough to show if you have a good performing QB you will win a lot. Not rocket science, but at least some data to support that statement.

I planned on looking at pro bowlers players and all pros eventually. I don’t necessarily disagree with you, but in the majority of examples with top performing QB’s it would be my expectation that they would still be in that group on other teams. Brady to Tampa as an example. Manning to Denver, etc. Using Allen, my opinion would be he is not declining exponentially on another team. Now does Ryan Tannahill? Sure. That is a much more clear example of a QB who is highly dependent on roster, scheme, process, etc as far as how he is able to rank high. But Josh is going to give you a 65 rating regardless of process, culture, roster (within reason) and that 65 is going to get you to being on average, a fringe playoff team.