-Last 10 match ups Miami has never been favored
-Miami is 1-9 SU vs the Bills in the last 10
-Miami is 4-6 ATS vs the Bills in the last 10
-These teams have played 5 times with a spread between +4 and -4 in the last 10 games and Buffalo is 4-1 SU and ATS.
-Miami is 1-6 vs winning teams since Miami's 21-19 victory over us in the hot box. Only victory vs Dallas when they were falling apart last year and couldn't win on the road.
Even the heat shouldn't be the issue it was a few years back.
Since 2020 Buffalo would be 53 wins, 10 losses, 5 pushes if given +3 in the regular season. They cover the +3 in 84% of the games since 2020.
Perhaps this is reflective of Taron Johnson being out? It's a loss but we have been thru this so many times. We will figure it out and in the meantime Josh should do what he does to Miami. Usually I would think I was walking into a trap game with this sort of spread but given our AFC East odds, I think this is just how they have us rated.