Mikie2times

Interesting, I remember being pretty emotional. Especially seeing the video of the players.

It’s a bit wild to me that we just assume we could beat the best version the Bengals ever had.

A front featuring Pat and Ted was just unfair.

EPA is impacted by field position. It’s very hard to see the logic in dismissing it as an evaluation tool in the postseason based on that reason. At the end of the day if you want to determine success by not “fully breaking” but doing everything but that, so be it. It was the most first downs they had all year and the most yards they had all year. We have seen plenty of other times where historic numbers like that converted perfectly fine into points vs us. So it’s your take that if we get performances like the Bengals or 49ers vs KC on defense we still don’t win?

Who have we put up good defensive performances against? Baltimore in the wind tunnel? Who else? That year in 2021 when the Colts dropped 400+ yards and almost beat us and KC hung 40+ points the defense was the number 1 scoring unit in football. Against the Colts as well. All Produced top 3 epa’s for the entire season vs us in the playoff.

So our inability to advance past a certain round for several years or the Patriots and Chiefs ability to consistently do so is just randomness? It shouldn’t matter how a team does in the playoffs when evaluating the best team? Maybe actual difference makers become more important come playoff time and maybe as nice as “The Process” sounds it doesn’t create difference makers?

James Franklin does not beat teams of equal or greater skill level. ND or Georgia would both beat them.

Chiefs vs Vikings Bills vs Eagles Ravens vs Rams Texans vs Bucs Steelers vs Lions Chargers vs Commanders Broncos vs Packers Me: Chiefs Eagles Ravens Bucs Lions Commanders Packers It’s an Eagles Chiefs Super Bowl repeat

That was the best Bills defense of all time according to simple rating system by pro football reference. We were really good that year.

Hes the best passer in the game. Not to be confused with the best player.

I'm just looking at results based on different levels of performance. I didn't form any conclusions. You will see a consistent decline in wins and losses based on QBR and very high correlations between the two. These relationships are strong enough to suggest what your saying isn't accurate.

What is overreaching?

I think an element to exists how he impacts the floor as well. We could say, well, a .500 team has 8 wins and this data indicates Allens performance will likely add 2-3 additional wins above average but I would argue the worst a team does with a QB performing like this is .500. So I think that 2-3 likely becomes a lot more. I would argue put Josh on any team in football and regardless of who it is they will be wild card contender instantly.

Allen prevents sacks in a consistent way that very few others can and I have no problem giving him credit for it. Brady did the same. They did it differently, but great QB's can't allow sacks at high rates. They're drive killers. The really good ones limit them with either how long they hold it or mobility. Burrow could be a 70 who misses, Matt Ryan also had a few. Rare, but it happens and I imagine the pattern is similar with bad defenses and close losses.

My takeaway, is Josh Allen = playoffs expectations. Void of nearly everything else. Is it possible to still not make the playoffs with a top 10 performing QBR? Sure. Rare, but it happens. Even more rare when that QB crosses 70 QBR. Even more so when you look at the declining number of players hitting these levels recently. Only 2 players even above 65 last year and 3 players the year prior. I have long made the argument that this franchises success and stability are from Allen more than anything else and I would triple down on that thought process

QBR is very similar to rating. You tend to see the same guys most years in the top 10, but you do get examples of Tyrod Taylor or Ryan Tannenhill once in awhile that are doing it based on the system.

I have seen a ton of posts talk about culture, it taking a village, and other concepts to explain why Buffalo has been so successful over the last few years. Maybe that stuff is true, maybe it's not, I really have no idea how to quantify these concepts. What we can do is look at high level QB play over a period of time and see what type of impact that had on the teams they played for. So that's exactly what I did. I used QBR to split the groupings up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating not a perfect system by any stretch, but much better at accounting for total production (like running). Group one is QB's that finished the season 70 or higher and played a minimum of 10 games Group two is QB's that finished the season between 65-69.99 and played a minimum of 10 game In most seasons these groupings would yield between 8-10 total players, 2-4 in the first group and about 5-6 in the lower tier group. You can see the results below, 1 PLA and 2 PLA is just the total players in each group that year. Teams with a QB that finished the year with a 70 or better QBR are 582-208 since 2010. Good for a 73.67% winning percentage. Teams with a QB that finished the year with a 65-69.99 QBR are 475-288 since 2010. Good for a 62.25% winning percentage. Josh Allen has had the following QBR's 2020: 76.6 2021: 66.3 2022: 73.4 2023: 69.6 2024: 76.7 So three years he has been in group 1 and three years he has been in group 2. His record in that time is 61-21, 1% above the average record of Group 1 players. I intend on adding some additional data to this such as playoff appearances and results, but for now this is what I have.

A new coordinator will do that, they’re a top 10 unit since the halfway mark and the best run defense in football

We still haven’t eclipsed that one. Maybe the Baltimore win to go to the AFC championship game. Seeing Kyle and the team react that way was special.

Never said it was unique to him You do know who Jim Johnson, his mentor was? Perhaps you should put to rest the narrative that he doesn’t blitz and if you’re selling me that he can be forced out of Nickle on occasion let me hold back the applause. That’s like clapping for a 10 years olds first steps.

This is McD’s defense. It’s the system he learned from Jim Johnson and modified during his time in Carolina. He is not flexible in changing the scheme. If he could truly step back and hire a DC that that plays a different system and mentor him, help him with concepts that he could sprinkle in. So be it, it would probably save his job but that’s not who McD is.

That’s exactly what Brady has done. Everybody tried to shoot three pointers with Josh. To take this freak and see what freakish stuff they could do. Brady said let’s shoot layups. Let’s move the chains. Let’s create as much structure around this player who is as unstructured as any in the game. I agreed with it 1000% and think he deserves a ton of credit for that approach. He’s basically driving a Lambo at 50MPH. I just don’t think what he’s done here is transferable to other situations. We will see.

I don’t think we would be even league average with Sam Darnold (as an example). Give Brady a replacement level QB and he will be fighting to keep his job ( we saw this once before in Carolina and we will again soon like Daboll when he leaves)

Holy crap, we agree 😂 Brady gets an abnormal level of credit for Josh creating. I have no clue what our production is in the scheme itself but it’s not something I feel stands out in some extraordinary way. It’s the first time in Allen’s career he has had an OC that wanted him to drive the speed limit instead of 100 miles an hour. Allen never needed a system to be aggressive. He needed a system to force short throws and throws to the RB’s and staying on schedule. That is what Brady deserves credit for the most. He’s harnessed Allen’s talent.

Lions have not been in that category for several weeks. I doubt they make the conference championship game. Injuries have just destroyed that team. Chiefs are probably right there especially given they tend to get it together in the postseason. I wouldn’t say that was the case earlier this year or even earlier last year. If I had to rank them now 1. Kansas City 2. Philadelphia 3. Baltimore 4. Buffalo 5. Detroit I also wouldn’t have an issue with a three way tie for 5th between all the NFC Central teams. Given the state of the Lions I would say Green Bay and the Vikings are with them.