MasterStrategist

Not to undermine your 1st point, because I agree we are 5-2 or 6-1. BUT...we can play this "what if" game on many things: 1. What if...offense hadn't been a mess in our 3 losses 2. What if...offense didn't dominate Miami, do we still win with a healthy defense? On the 2nd point, I do think McD is doing best we can ask for on defense. Offense coaching is clearly underperforming/unit shouldn't be struggling in 1st halves so much. But, on that 2nd point (re:Front Office), we've been good NOT great-bad list: 1. Elam- can't waste 1st round picks 2. Backup 1 tech DT: no plan to address this, sorry Poona wasn't the plan either. Now go into next year with just Ed under contract 3. WR2: ALOT of offseason debate, as of now looks like the Gabe train is off track Lots of games left this year, but if we don't win Thurs night that will be 2 straight "should be" wins (couldve been 3) and that's a coaching issue. Next year, Beane needs to basically hit on every early pick again and be extremely wise spending FA...we are in cap trouble with a handful of poor/underperforming contracts.

Let's go for it...make it an NHL type trade: DHop, Simmons and Henry Give us your best and we'll give you our worst, I mean: Gabe, Elam, and a 2nd Kidding aside, I do think DHop makes a ton of sense at the lower cap hit.

Thanks Alpha! This has McD fingerprints all over it-he wants to sustain a balanced/ball control offense. No better way than a top tier RB who almost automatically gives 3 yards per touch, at minimum. I wouldn't love the move, because I place WR2 at a higher need/impact. But Cook has never been a workhorse type back, still think he's better used with 5-10 carries and 5+ catches per game. In theory, it opens up the passing game/far less 2 high safeties. Perhaps that gets Gabe useful again, and/or more intermediate targets for Kincaid and others. I'd also not be surprised if we reached out to Tenn on other guys. They are definitely "sellers" right now, they'd have a few pieces that'd immediately help us.

Knox is a very good blocker, but for whatever reason is never a consistent option in the pass game. Not just drops, but low target share. Not just this season but years past. He's one tough dude, ie: Rambo, but he's always battling through an injury it seems. Same as college. His biggest challenge is staying healthy for long stretches. Always a fan and up to this point, good value. But starting next yr, $14.4m cap hit (6th highest amongst TEs) will really sting us. I'll be genuinely shocked if we try restructuring his deal....not the type to do it for/injury concerns. $15m+ cao hits in 2025-26 already. No way of getting out of that contract, without $20m+ dead cap until 2025. Hopefully he come back healthy and balls out next year. We will need it for that cap hit

Yup, Addison again

As is Jordan Addison. He is the next star WR, he'll be given more targets with JJ out. He was our 1st round target, Kincaid is nice too, but Addison is a future Diggs.

Up to this point, that contract has been goof. But next year is the major tipping point. As you said, $14.4m 2024 cap hit (that's currently 6th highest slotted for 2024 for a TE). We won't be restructuring his deal/kicking more $s down the road. We will play out his 2024 year, then he'll likely be cut in 2025. Kincaid waiting in the wings, no reason to defer a cap problem. Beane will be making alot of "retooling"/cap casualties between 2024 and 2025. Knox likely done for 2023, he will have 1 more year as a Bill. Hopefully gets ready for a monster season to justify that cap hit.

Knox is athletic, but never has been a primary target/used that ability consistently. I'd say he's a more consistent blocker, which is how he's been used for Daboll and Dorsey. It is a big blow, but bigger because we don't have a 2nd TE with even avg blocking ability at this level. Kincaid, Morris (maybe avg at best) are Giseki type/receiving types. Gilliam perhaps could be OK blocking. Hopefully Gilliam can fill that blocking TE role. But it will be Edwards, not Bates, if we go heavy protection sets. Agree on going more air raid, I was on that train before Knox surgery was announced. Key is keeping Cook involved, 5-10 carries per game and more looks in passing attack. This offense always played best when being more aggressive, focused on scoring as opposed to ball control/managing the chains. Get the lead, then work our ground attack/playaction...give the defense less pressure in the process.

Agree. This is actually a big week IMO though. We have a "mini bye" and actual bye week still to come. Home/primetime, if we lay another egg on offense I think that might be final straw I'm not advocating for Coach to be fired/full rebuild. But is there a poor enough record that it happens after season? Ie: 7-10? Again, not advocating for that. I think we have more personnel issues than coaching. But this would be the offseason to make a change, given we are likely heading into next year at least "retooling"/having to maneuver around cap again. This time we won't be kicking as much down the road, instead letting go of some higher priced contracts.

He tried to play through his wrist injury, but yes he's on the field in a critical situation/he has to make that catch. Feel bad he's hurt. But Beane overpaid for that contract and it will bite us next year ($14.4M cap hit in 2024/>$20m dead cap). No timetable on return, likely he's out for year or at least regular season.

Agree, Bernard is fine/good pick. But we came into the year with what depth/plan I'd someone got injured? Dorian should be #4, he's young and going to be OK as the year keeps going. But when there were multiple 1-yr rental/depth types in FA, we decided on Dodson/Klein. It is what it is. Milano loss was nobodies fault, just too many injuries to overcome right now.

We're only seven games in AND likely lost for season: CB1 (pro bowl caliber) Starting 1 tech DT (pro bowl caliber) WLB (all pro) TE1 Then we have banged up: DE1 Von - still going to take multiple weeks to even approach prior form DE2 Groot - battling through a foot injury (won't e surprised if he's eventually shut down) QB1 throwing shoulder (hopefully minor, but likely impacting play some) Injuries derail seasons, and this appears to be ours. 49ers, Ravens, etc have dealt with similar issues in recent years. Not the time to make a trade, IMO. We've got a lot to already overcome, and never know if we've hit "worse case" for this year yet.

Thanks for continuing to share updates/info from your source. Based on what you reported on Groot, I'm wondering if another L and he will be shutdown to recover. Injuries this year are brutal, someone hit that Madden reset button

Dorian is a "project". Poona was signed well into FA, wasn't Plan A. Regardless, there were gambles taken at the LB spot. Counting on 2 third rounders to be ready for major playing time. Or relying on Dodson. At 1 tech DT, I would have thought we prioritized depth/future development (draft pick) given what what we saw when Daquan missed time. Poona was "reactionary", I could see Dorian being a planned/strategy decision (so be it). Bottom line, the front office decisions at some critical positions/depth is NOT as good as initially expected.

Too many missed tackles and this defense is really built around having top-end LB play (combined at both spots). Right now, Dorians head is spinning. No surprise, a 3rd round talent that needed grooming (coming out of Tulane). He has the athletic traits, going to take a year or 2 before things click though. At which point, Milano will be in his 30s and we can decide if he's a capable replacement. In the here and now, Beane either makes a trade OR we need to keep getting Dorian reps. Dodson is limited, honestly they missed out on some cheaper vet deals this offseason that would have been helpful. Makatevich, Spector, and Klein are SUPER limited and S/T types only. I would have thought Kirksey would be here already, if that was gonna happen (Klein instead signed to 53). TB is also a 1st year starter. And while exceeding expectations, he isn't in position all the time either. Somehow Beane neglected 1 tech DT and WLB depth.

Agree! Posted this yesterday, regarding 12 personnel: Agree that we are overusing it, mainly because it's been unsuccessful: 1. Run game: opponents don't respect our run game, can't blame them. They are staying in nickle and if we can't run for 4-5 yards consistently...then we're doomed in this formation 2. Nickle looks/cover 2: As mentioned above, if we can't run then we are essentially rolling with Knox/Kincaid/Davis against cover 2/coverage looks. Teams aren't scared of Knox or Gabe. Gabe can't get in/out of breaks fast enough I'm on board with less Gabe, he's a misfit being used in this style of offense this year. More Shakir/Harty/Sherfield please. And yes, we need to go back to running more 11 personnel. And playing with more tempo/urgency. It doesn't have to be no huddle, but we've morphed into a ball control/small ball offense. Above is part Dorsey/part McD IMO. This is the part concerning me the most, if Coach is too much of an influence- pure speculation, but connecting the dots between current comments and past comments, Coach wants a ball control/more balanced offense. Time to get back to being more aggressive, playing like we're behind from the start.

Agree, Josh isnt perfect either. Plenty of blame to go around. But the offense hasn't looked this bad, to me it's mostly coaching. Nobody respecting our "12 personnel" for us to consistently run the ball, and the combo of Knox/Kincaid/Davis isn't enough speed to win 1-1 against the nickle defenses we face. Poor personnel decisions in the offseason are squarely on Beane. He neglected WR2, brought in 2 "meh" Wrs, and drafted a future stud at TE (meanwhile overpaying our current starter). Unless we make a trade (unlikely), we need to adjust our "identity" (scheme/personnel groupings/tempo/etc). Coach likely pushing some of this more conservative offense on Dorsey. But at some point, they need to realize it's time to move on/adjust what we're doing. I agree McD definitely heavily involved in that decision process. Without anyone knowing exactly, I think it's fair to say the entire coaching staff is underperforming with our current talent. Especially on offense.

I posted this in another thread "12 personnel", Dorsey has forced us into a bad/mismatched identity on offense this year. Trying to be a short/efficient passing offense and more run game. Less explosive plays. That type of offense is great when you have a better OL/run game and a 2nd WR that can win 1-1 in short zones. Problem is, we don't have the the OL or WR2 to execute that scheme. So we've become a team that eats up 8 min drives (scores a FG) OR goes 3 and out. We need to be more aggressive on offense from the start. We'd get frustrated that Daboll would come out throwing 10 straight passes, but maybe that's exactly what we need some games.

Yes, this + a purposeful intent to change into a different identity on offense. That identify on offense, isn't a bad thing, but we do not have a WR2 or OL to be consistently good at it. Which is exactly what we've seen...inconsistent. I'd rather see our LY offense, with thr occasional big play/intermediate attack hit on occasion. VS this much more conservative/safe offense also be inconsistent. In theory, I see what Dorsey is trying to do and agree it would work with some different personnel. But we have such a weird identity issue right now/mismatch of players for what they're trying to do: OL (mix of grinders/finesse even at IOL), WR (good to have different skillets) issue is nobody can win 1-1 except Diggs. Part of me wonders how much of this is pinned on Beane vs coaching staff philosophy not aligning

Plenty of blame to go around. But at the top of the totem pole (or close to it), Mr Beane. 1-tech DT: zero capable backups CB/Secondary: aging at safety/zero speed. Elam is either a complete bust OR something else altogether LBs: Milano then what? Credit on TB pick, but they have Dodson and Dorian as backups. At what point do they try finding a mid-tier backup? Maybe Kirskey, but that turned into a strikeout. WR: everyone, or most, were worried about options behind Diggs. Gabe hasn't been consistent/we haven't found a consistent & reliable 2nd option Credit: DEs, IOL, RB We've spent a lot, and somehow have a worst product to show for it. The biggest concerns in a nutshell were WR2, physically on DL, and secondary speed. Followed with IOL and slot WR. Do we have top tier talent? Yes. Injuries not helping, but there's a clear miss on assessing a couple key positional depth and starter ability

Thank you, great post! Agree with all of this, well said and what I was trying to convey. I feel like we've forced this "12 personnel"/short passing and efficient style. When we don't have the offensive line and WR2 to make it work. It's not just 1 thing, and coupled with Kincaid being a rookie. But your point about give Josh 3x to get a first, and we'll get one, is very valid. And was Dabs MO. We also used to have the mindset that we shouldn't need to get into 3rd down, in order to move the chains. It seems like our identity (or lack thereof) now is to get into 3rd and short. But it's backfiring and actually we've been statistically worse in getting into 3rd and long situations. I know others saying it's not as easy as changing formation/personnel groupings. I agree, and what I said in OP, but it's a start. Our offense LY had it's struggles too, but not to this level of agonizing execution. We've got improved IOL, Cook is better/better grinder in Murray, better with Kincaid than what we had LY. Somehow we've become worse, and to me it stems back to wanting to change our identity into something that's not working (personell groupings/route tree)

Exactly. And our running game isn't good enough to take advantage. Then in conjunction, we've taken more speed off the field and basically have Knox/Gabe who aren't scaring anyone 1-1. I just think it's a "domino effect", of keeping Knox/Kincaid/Davis out there together.

Agree, I'm saying we need to get Harty/Shakir/Sherfield on the field with Kincaid more often. Less Kincaid/Knox combo.

I think Josh is getting rid of it too quick against Cover 2 at times. Going for 2-3 yards. There's time to find a better balance in the intermediate areas, even a 7 step drop release point is doable against the wide rush/goal is to hit more intermediate passing zones.

I think 1 major adjustment to the offense is to stop using 12 personnel so much. We need to get back to our 11, and give Kincaid majority (60/40 snaps) over Knox. Second adjustment is going back, not all the time but alot more often, to our 7 step/deep crossing route development plays. We've become a "small ball" offense, almost overcompensating for what we saw LY at times (too aggressive/too many long developing plays). Yes, there will be times and we still need to mix in the quick passing. Right now, we need to get bigger plays and let Josh be who he is. But we've turned into an offense that needs to sustain 10+ play drives. Often times getting behind the sticks, or 3rd & long situations, because we're throwing too many very short passes/bad playcalling rhythm/poor execution. These 2 adjustments alone won't do it. We need better execution/playcalling/decision making by Josh. But, it's the start of getting back to ehat this offense can and should be. Do you agree/other thoughts on what can be adjusted with scheme?