MasterStrategist

You call dropped passes simple facts? Again you use stats, but adjust to fit your agenda. Not always, but on some key topics. It's hard to take you seriously when you write 8 paragraphs, some of it is real good data/analysis, but one third to half is biased. Then you use that to prove overall points about what direction this team is going. So yeah, in the end, you're using biased data to form your overall conclusion.

I wasn't calling you out in that response, re: Coach. I dont need to compare him to anyone but himself though. I've seen him adapt and grow as a HC. He's got flaws like all others. But he's a darn good coach, especially on defense. I don't think it's right to point the finger at him, when the players on the field are either subpar or performing below their standard. Somehow is Coach doing something that's causing them to be tense/play different? I don't know that. But his schemes look the exact same, and aren't the issue. Players are making mental errors or physically not executing. I agree he's adjusting, at least from what Frazier was doing. It's Coach's defense though at the end of day, and think it's still going to be philosophically similar. We've been a very good defense, regular season for a reason. For whatever reason come playoffs, we just aren't making plays up front or causing turnovers. Yes, elite offenses are on the other side, we've also had horrible injury luck (if some refuse to admit that). But he/players need to find a way to execute. I just think it's a horrible philosophy to say we need better WRs, let's just score every drive. That's an unrealistic goal. Fielding an avg to below avg defense won't cut it either. In my mind, we need to execute better as a group OR someone on the DL/secondary needs to start making impact plays in critical moments. We've folded when it's mattered most, not on offense but defense. And that's not solely on Coach, I put more of it on the players.

And yet, we have fans saying we need better WRs to win? Which is it? Is the offense underperforming or the defense? Sorry perhaps I haven't been clear enough. I'm trying to say our biggest issue right now is getting more stops on defense, against the likes of KC and Cincy in the playoffs. Our DL has largely underperformed. Chris Jones stats might not be there, but his impact on a game can be seen in 1 single play (pushing Dion into Josh's lap)/which cost us a TD. So I'm talkingmore about players on defense that "come through in the clutch", elite guys. We don't have that. We have elite Josh Allen, who does come through for us more often than not. If we stick with KC, they have just as good of a QB and better disruptors/impact guys on defense. Again, I'm not trying to compare everything to KC. Just trying to say that most SB teams, in recent memory, have had more than what ppl want to preach is a "must have" to go to a SB (speaking on WRs). They forget having a clutch player on defense is often part of that same team, and something we've lacked (outside of Tre in his prime).

Of course they did. 2019, Chris Jones wasn't as dominant as now, but he was still an elite DT. Frank Clark was a solid option, albeit not elite. 2022 and 2023. Chiefs had an elite DL and secondary IMO. All pros on both levels. I should clarify that I'm looking at Chris Jones being elite, as a game wrecker up front. Same with secondary, really in 2022 and 2023. They had 2 all pro guys and solid complementary guys. Chiefs were lucky to reach the SB in 2019 season, IMO. Obviously more to it than 1 player or 2. But that's what I'm trying to highlight. To everyone saying a Top 1/2 WR is a necessity. Those teams have "elite" players on the other side of the ball, in key positions (DL/secondary). As much as Milano has been elite, he isn't changing games. We haven't had a single elite player healthy at DL or CB when facing KC or Cincy in playoffs. Tre out in 2021, downhill from there. Von injured in 2022, shell of himself LY. There's a reason we've been able to compete and beat KC in regular season. Our DL has showed up in wins, and we haven't been as banged up. Still lacking a true gamechanger on DL, Beane took his swing with signing Von. He needs to be able to draft one at some point It's all about their crusade on McD at this point, and wanting to see him gone. I swear he'll win us a SB and people will still be claiming their opinion is right. Some ppl can't admit they're ever wrong. That's a major character flaw if you ask me. Nobody is perfect, I find it easy to admit I'm wrong, especially when I'm being very outspoken on a topic. Just the world we live in

And somehow it could have been worse, imagine that?! Klein can't keep up with anyone. Dodson playing with 1 arm, should have recovered a fumble early. Douglas hobbling on 1 functional knee. Poyer/Hyde showing their age, and a DL that got manhandled once again. No way around that (injuries/what Coach had to work with). We had players in position, no execution

I don't think our coaching has been 'superior' by any means, but good enough IMO. Bengals game was a complete letdown players and coaches. Our front 4 is in position by default. Our DL has not elevate their game/let alone play to their standard for multiple playoff losses. I'm more concerned with that being a "Beane" issue. Investing resources, draft and FA alike. Good philosophy, but poor investment choices. Could easily run down a big list of failed options. That's been our achilles heel, IMO. He's done a solid job in other aspects, and obviously nailed the most important position.... But if we had 1 all pro on DL and back 7, healthy throughout playoffs, our coaches would look like geniuses. Injuries has played into that of course. As much as many like to point to WR rooms, for SB teams. They conveniently leave out that almost every SB team has an elite DL or secondary.

Lol. Yes I can believe that. Coaching is part of it, their GM/scouting has outperformed ours recently. Especially in the draft, on the defensive side of ball. And some key hits on offense. Bishop and Carter need to be hits for us this year, Solomon would be a nice bonus. At some point, we need to find an elite player for front 4 and secondary. Hopefully we see Groot/Ed grow into that level, and someone from the secondary.

DL talent has alot to do with that. Chris Jones is an allpro, probably best DT in football. Take him out and see if everyone calls Spags a genius

At what point do you actually point the finger at players? 2019: Neal drops an easy pick in Hou territory. Neal later misses a huge sack, we had Watson with 2 guys in backfield 2020: Colts was a bad defensive effort. Players/coaches alike. Ravens, I thought we had a good gameplan. Chiefs, another ok gameplan but our front 4 got totally manhandled 2021: dominate Pats. Missing our best player/all pro Tre killed us against a lethal offense. Our pass rush never showed up, Edmunds looked lost on the field. Milano/Levi blow a coverage during "13 seconds", allowing Kelce to get into FG range 2022: Cincys backup IOL just flat out bullied our DTs. 3-4 key injuries (Daquan, Hyde, Poyer, Tre hobbled). Frazier scheme played scared too 2023: Played Steelers well. Again DL folded, when we needed them to step up. 4-5 key injuries, Benford, Lame Rasul, Bernard, Milano, Daquan/Von still battling at far less than 100% So yeah. Our DL has choked against KC, Cincy, KC again. Too many injuries in 2023 especially, can't stop a Mahomes led offense with the MASH unit we fielded. Coach isn't the reason IMO. If you think we are going to somehow create confusion and blitz Mahomes/etc, nobody wins that way. They have success bc their front 4 causes enough disruption and have a solid back 7. Our front 4 has got blown off the ball by the wind it seems, past few playoff losses

I agree we aren't far apart in this discussion. Key difference, I think our offense is sufficient (with replacements we've made/Brady taking over with his system). Going to be a short/intermediate attack with occasional deep shots and a solid run game. Bigger/more reliable targets in RZ too. I think we can expect an improved RZ efficiency. And to be honest, that's the biggest difference between a 5-10 offense and a top ranked group. Leaving too many points on the field. The other main difference is "defense expectations". We've had too many key injuries, in 2021-2023, to overcome. I think if we can be more healthy, which is luck for any team each year, that's the first hurdle. McD defense overachieved vs KC playoff game, believe it or not. Can't run his scheme with 5th string LBs, a lame Von, and a beat up secondary. S/T has also been a bottom performing unit, finding a way to blunder 2 of our last 3 playoff games. We have a lot of areas to "clean up". But we have the personell and coaching necessary, stay healthy and not choke basically

IMO, a top 5 offense is sufficient/likely to happen as you said. Again, just to me, we need to get more stops against elite offenses. We can't win stopping a team 1x a half, or 2-4 times a game. We've been fortunate that Josh plays out of his mind, for the most part, in playoffs (minus a few games). As of now, I'm not concerned about offense. With the additions Beane has made. It's having our defense step up and S/T as well, when it matters most. We won't know that until January, but we also need better fortune with injuries. We've been hit hard past few years. Being a top 2, vs top 5 offense, is just stats and a low differential. It's about having better consistency/sustained drives and redzone efficiency. I'm bullish on Brady and our group of skill players, to achieve that this season.

Yes we will see what happens.

Yes I do. Meaningless past stats: 1. Players with not credible data: Shakir and Coleman. Enough targets will be there for each to flirt with 700-800+ yard seasons. Proven Vets: Samuel, MVS, Hollins (if he wins #5). Proven from a standpoint of being reliable in their roles. Samuel 700-800, MVS 250-400, Hollins 150-200 yards. Again, when you have a star QB, stats are going to reflect that QBs skill and overall playcalling/scheme to a strong degree. Do I think he will pass for 4,500+? I'd put that at low odds. Does he match or exceed LYs production? IMO, im very condifent. I'm also bullish on Bradys scheme, year2/3 growth in WRs and TEs, and having better overall depth at WR (compared to Harty/Sherfield).

Exactly. Some people struggle (or less optimistic) to envision a successful offense, without a true #1 or 1/2 punch. Reality is what you said, is very possible/very likely if you ask me, when 17 is our QB. Not to mention getting likely more production at TE/RB passing attack as well, with any combination of improved Kincaid, healthier Knox, Cook getting more pass game touches or Davis being a legit #2 back/3rd down option.

Your data is biased and a judgment in many occasions. I've brought this up when you were talking about Keons "drops" in another thread. You don't consider his QB was wildly inaccurate at times and often very slow to anticipate throws (waited far too long and the defender got there to break it up). Those were drops in your book. Again, like another poster mentioned, you spend time finding stats that support your "opinion", and at various times spin those to confirm your point. That's called confirmation bias, for any statistical nerds on here. I'm a big stat guy, majored in advanced statistics/actuarial science, also have coaching background and know what I'm looking at. Not to say you're incapable. But you seem incapable of looking at things from a "fair" standpoint/zero bias. You make your opinion and find stats to prove why you're right. Back to actual football talk, here's cliff notes for you: 1. Brady (or Brady vs Dorsey): no install LY, full offseason to put his scheme in play = no judgment to make yet (although he did call solid games against Cowboys, Philly, KC to name a few). Can't compare to anyone else until he installs his system 2. Coleman: no pro experience. His college "drops"/tape aren't near as bad as you've portrayed them. I'm not listing stats, because this will turn into a debate on what you "define as catchable", which I strongly disagree with you on. 3. McD/Beane plan at WR and skill positions: plan is clear as day to me. Find more reliable/higher catch rate options. Better with YAC. More versatile slot/outside. Better in intermediate passing game. Bigger targets/improved 50-50 pass options. Improve our backup RB position- if you watch Davis "all touches" film, he is a better prospect than Moss IMO. Quicker feet, great vision/agility. Pass game he is very similar to Moss, again more elusive IMO. 4. Others I could discuss, if you want You come across as pessimistic on some key offseason decisions from the front office/lacking confidence in McD and Beane in general. Again, just letting your feelings get in the way (past <> future/2024 results).

No way Knox is getting moved. He just restructured his deal (lowered his pay/more cap friendly this yr), we'd also be in for a Sizeable dead cap hit. Makes no sense to move him. MVS is a legit #4 WR, which we needed. Hollins is #5, unless Shavers/Shorter/Claypool prove they're at least as capable blocking and on S/Ts. Everyone else is on a "very cheap" deal, and competing for #6 or P/S.

Never said it did. But you brought up the fact of "not sustaining" an offense with Joah running so much.....that's where my point was geared toward. Now you're moving the goalpost. I've already stated to you how we can have a sustainable and successful offense this year. You might not agree, but let's not act like we're doomed in May

Hence why we drafted a legit 2nd RB in the 4th round this year. Davis will take some of Josh's share, especially in short yardage situations. Josh running 10-12x in a playoff game isn't some revelation either, with escaping the pocket on some of those. Let's consider KCs 4 playoff games: 1. Miami: 7 points 2. Us: 24 points 3. Bmore: 10 points 4. 49ers: 22 points (with a FG in OT), so 19 in regulation We easily should have had 27, if not more, given we shut down in the RZ 2x. All considering, let's give credit where credits due, obviously Josh but also Brady with calling a gameplan. Let's not act like it was easy/only plan he could have used. We had a great rhythm and if not for some key missed plays, we'd been 1 game closer to a SB. What Beane saw was a lack of guys who could get open fast/or win jump balls. And the lack of a complementary RB to Cook. Again, Brady knows how to put his players in the best position to succeed. Without his system even fully installed at that point.

To me, this is a lazy take. But JMO. Take for example GB, they had the 49ers beat in the playoffs LY. No #1, a bunch of similar type guys to what we have now. We haven't seen a Joe Brady led scheme, in Buffalo yet. It's like saying Daboll was who he was before arriving, so expect said past results. Brady has been around Josh, and this team, seen has worked and hasn't. Brady called a fantastic gameplan against KC. I'm very confident with a full offseason of implementing his own designs, that we will have better offensive rhythm/consistency this year. Especially when it comes to turnover and redzone efficiency. As for WR/overall receiving talent, we might not have a single star player, but collectively alot of talent. Especially attacking the short/intermediate areas of the field. Solid run game and efficient passing/YAC is a surefire way to move the ball. I was concerned with having any outside/downfield threats prior to the draft. Now we have a promising rookie in Coleman and a proven vet in MVS, then some wildcards in Claypool/Hamler/Shorter/Shavers fighting for #6. Defending our offense isn't going to be as simple as roll a safety over Davis, which basically took him out of games. Bracket Diggs. This team is counting on Kincaid and Shakir to take another step. Doesn't have to be a huge step, as you pointed out earlier. Samuel is going to get his 700-800+ yards, Coleman's skill set will transition to the NFL fairly quickly. We have a lot of complementary weapons, but the key thing is versatility. Maybe not all are downfield threats, but covering the underneath zones is going to be much more challenging for teams this year. Especially with what I expect to be a better running game, and more use of Cook/Davis in the passing game as well. Let things play out...way too much pessimism right now, even for TBD standards

It should be obvious, but Kincaid is more of a hybrid TE right now. Not the best blocker for that position, but better than a slot WR. Knox is athletic too, but not a natural route runner/as smooth as Kincaid. Knox is our best blocking TE, he's just had issues past few years between injuries and the tragic family incident. Knox can be a 500-600 yard TE, but I think he's going to be in the 400-500 range this season. Our 12 personnel usage worked much better under Brady, Brady also knew when to abandon it and go 11 with Kincaid or Knox. Both guys are valuable, Kincaid will put up more glamorous stats and better player in general. But Knox is a reliable blocker and solid RZ threat as well. 2025 will be the year Knoxs caphit is likely generating a negative ROI, but to this point it's been positive (when he's healthy)

Defense: Groot. He'll benefit from a healthy Von, more consistent AJE, and Solomon bringing a very good pressure rate. 12 sacks for Groot. Offense: Rookie Ray Davis. Yes Cook will still be the primary guy, but Davis has great vision/very quick feet and adds a dimension to the running game and 3rd down role. I think he'll get 700 total yards of offense, 7 total TDs

Brady is counting on an intermediate passing game that is more efficient, and a solid rushing attack. We will see if it works, but the plan isn't confusing. Just might not be what you want to see. Coleman/Shakir/Samuel will be our main WR targets, plain and simple. Some combo of Hollins/Shorter/Hamler/Claypool will get some outside snaps and likely less than 40-45 targets. Our downfield passing game is a concern of mine too. But, once Brady took over they're focus down the stretch LY was short/intermediate passing. Occasional "scramble" play hitting Gabe deep. Coleman can fill that role at minimum. We are counting on YAC from guys like Samuel/Shakir, Coleman to an extent. Coleman to be our 50/50 downfield guy, but also someone who wins underneath/intermediate with his quick release and strength at break of route. Kincaid will be used in a variety of ways, his role expanded at end of year. Add in Cook/Davis and Knox as a safety valve. This is just a completely group of players. We have more diversity than LY, IMO, in terms of getting everyone involved at least at the 1st two levels of passing attack.

Shakir is the definition of a complementary WR. People like to 'extrapolate' his stats to a full season, based on a small sample. He had some big plays, then some games where he wasn't exactly consistent. In terms of targets, I'd guess in the 70 range...if he can stay healthy. He got banged up in preseason LY, which is why he didn't have a role early on. Fighting off the rib injury. Shakir is a nice guy as a WR3/4. He's an average slot, IMO. We have a better slot WR on the team, in Curtis Samuel. Samuel creates better separation, and similar YAC ability. That's all to say, this is how I see our targets shaking out (barring injury): 1. Kincaid 2. Samuel 3. Coleman 4. Shakir 5. Cook 6. Knox/Davis/other WRs & RBs I think Samuel will lead the team in receiving, but won't surpass 900 yards. I see Kincaid, close to that as well. Coleman in the 800s too, and Shakir around 700-750. We have a "full" complement of players this year, I think our best "1-1" matchups will be: Kincaid, Samuel and Coleman. Not a knock on Shakir, but with Samuel on board...it's a total wildcard how they plan to use 2 primarily slot guys. Samuel is better there, IMO. If I had to guess, both Smauel and Shakir get close to 50-60% of their snaps in the slot ( Samuel on the higher end). I'm not confident in Shakirs outside game, especially downfield. I think Coleman is going to be integrated early and often. He might be one of our best blocking WRs by end of camp, and can see Brady running a more balanced run/pass attack. Our best weapons as of now might be in the backfield and Kincaid. Samuel then Coleman then Shakir. I'd be hitting the under 1k yards HARD, if any betting sites have that prop bet on Shakir.

I was responding to your "unedited" post, about ppl being cranky/needing to get out more. I do see you edited that part out now. All good, seems you changed your tune after editing. There's people who think this is the "best ever" while some think it's "unwatchable/horrible". I'm personally in the middle. Solid, but way too long IMO, and some very good lines/jokes, some really poor ones/bad delivery. Some topics that were joked on perfectly, others I thought would be better left out. But overall I'd only watch again if edited to like an hour, 3 hours wasn't necessary again JMO. But agree with you, if anyone is making a "strong" stance should definitely watch the entire thing/at least watch the first hour.

Everyone has a different sense of humor, based on when they were born/how they were raised etc. I was early 80s and my sense of humor/what I find funny is different than alot of my younger co-workers. I don't think it's about needing to get out more or unwind. Different strokes for different folks, and everyone matures at different stages in their life (some not at all). Honestly having kids can change ones perspective/actions on a lot too, including humor. Doesnt mean you become some uptight/grouch over night or lose sense of humor. Just things change. This coming from a dad of a 6 year old. Back to "Roasts", some people like myself grew up going to roasts/some family member being part of them OR watching. My experience, they used to be more focused on that individual person and good humored jabs, yeah things crossed the line a touch but nothing meant to be cruel/ill-willed. I could careless about language, but they weren't laced with as much profanity as now. Just a different tone to "roasts" now, again this isnt even coming from someone who is that old (40). But to each their own on what they consider a "good roast" nowadays.