MasterStrategist

Some reasons to be optimistic, some to be concerned about. Many ?s at key positions and coaching, along with players returning/still recovering from major injuries. I'd put us as a Tier 1b/2 team entering the season, but this is likely the most volatile team we've had in a while...could see us finishing the year anywhere from 1-12 in rankings. I'd peg us in the 5-9 range then for now. I do like the offseason moves though, and think we have some young, ascending players on both sides of the ball that will take a big step. Plus Brady and Babich are very good coaches IMO.

Josh is obviously a MVP type QB, and he's single-handedly won us quite a few games. He's been nearly unstoppable in the playoffs (minus Bengals loss when everyone played horrible). But to brush aside his turnovers and focus on the "good stats", is also a bad stance. IMO, he had a very average season LY, at his standard. He has self admitted that he made too many turnovers, some of those cost us games (Jets and Broncos). He had a great stat game against Miami, but his turnovers took a lot of points off the board and needed a great punt return to win it, and defense stepping up. So yes, the offense was wildly inconsistent but a decent part of that was Josh LY. We were very fortunate to even make the playoffs LY. He needs to have a better regular season/more consistent and efficient, especially with a new/young group of playmakers.

We called on John Brown and Beas, they didn't eat up any significant snaps though. So that's mute in my eyes. Again, I think plain average. What is the 3rd straight year? 2021? Thought that was a strong group.

Clearly the league viewed Troy way different than a lot of pre-draft rankings. Maybe Troy pans out, but Beane clearly liked who we have (and adding MVS). Re: Rd 2, that's your take, but Cole Bishop is going to be a leader at S for us for a long time. Real good player, where we have stop gap options. S is clearly an important piece to McD defense, so the argument of spending a 4th+ and being fine is just not aligned with their philosophy. And backup 3tech, what happens on 35%+ of our snaps when Ed/Daquan are rotated out? On top of that, who gives you any confidence if either goes down? Not to mention, it's the 1 position where we don't have much young talent to build around. So it comes down to what Beane liked in our WR room + a need for a backup DT. As you've said before, Beane isn't wasting $$ on Jordan Phillips/Tim Settles of the world. That tradeoff makes us better as a team, compared to adding Troy Franklin who the team spent A LOT of pre draft time with, and didn't pick him when given the chance a couple times.

Cephus was already being worked out, basically before the draft concluded. Honestly, what you're saying is my point about anyone (making mistakes). Beane has made them, as has the poster you're alluding to, it doesn't mean you carry that over someone's head forever. So yeah, Beane made a mistake on LYs WR4/5, doesn't mean he made another error this season. In my book, Beane put together a very good group in 2020 and 2021, 2022 was so-so, and 2023 was the only "mistake" year at skill spots (although Cook took a big leap, Kincaid looks promising, and Shakir is still improving/played well down the stretch with more targets). All that to say, Beanes track record has been better than most give credit for at the overall skill position group. Proof will be in the pudding come Fall.

All this talk about Hamlin is crazy....he showed to be a decent backup safety, safety4 type, 2 seasons ago. LY is a wash, he's already showing up early in camp making plays and faster than LY. He'll have a spot on the 53. Back to the $$$s, it's pretty easy to envision us holding onto what's left after draft class/practice squad/contingencies. Either it gets rolled to next year, or we see who is cut/potential trade mid year. No need to rush spending that $$$ now, we might have the best depth that we've had in a while (minus boundary CB and potentially DE). Rest of the team, on paper, looks fairly set.

Again, who is this mysterious 2nd WR that you wanted drafted? And don't say someone from Rd 2, likely it would have been a Day 3 guy. Like it or not, getting a backup 3Tech was a bigger need than an extra WR, more on this below. Beane clearly had MVS in his sights pre draft, likely depending on who was there on Day 3. So to answer your question, with 4 of 5 WR spots all but locks and likely MVS making the team....our rookie is competing for WR6. Where we already spent a 5th LY (Shorter), brought in Claypool and Hamler, and have Shavers/Isabella as likely Practice Squad (on top of whatever shakes out after cuts). So again, how are we benefitting by taking valuable reps away from Shakir/Samuel/Coleman/MVS/Hollins/etc for a "potential" WR6 (2nd drafted WR)? Makes little sense to take another Day 3 guy, with our current depth chart and especially when we have Shorter who fits that bill from LY (that we liked enough to stash on IR).

Again, smug as usual. I'm not drunk, but might need to after talking with you. Someone might slap you upside the head if you talk to them like this. I trust Beane isn't "wasting a Josh Allen prime year", as you put it. You must not be so great at reading and comprehending the point. I'm saying, you're already throwing in the towel on this WR group (again, wasting a Josh Allen prime season)...when we know you've been wrong plenty....you have major issues admitting that, but again my point is that Beane knows what he's doing and we have very good talent at the skill positions. My rationale for bringing up YOUR mistake, is that you talk in certainties/your opinion is gold. Whenever someone challenges you: Step 1: you bring your supporting statements Step 2: Fail to listen or just plain disagree and dont respond to the posters point Step 3: resort to petty comments/sarcasm You've probably heard sarcasm is the weapon of the weak. Beane/Brady know what they want and need at the skill spots.

Problem with drafting 2 WRs is getting them both up to speed/even be able to evaluate them. If you disagree with Beanes FA acquisitions, that's up to you. But with: Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, Hollins, and likely MVS. Anyone we drafted would have to beat out MVS for Wr4 or Hollins for a ST/vet role. Claypool, Shorter, Shavers, Hamler all competing as well. Not saying it's impossible, but dedicating Wr3 and WR4 to rookies is a gamble, when it will likely take Coleman time to adjust already. On top of that, who is this 2nd WR that you wanted in Rd 3 or Rd 4?

I always wanted Allen, now you're just making things up. Bottom line, you wanted Darnold 1a, Rosen 1b. We would have drafted Rosen if up to you. Again, trying to point out that mistakes happen (as you would have made). Beane has done more good than bad, it's worth trusting him before dumping on this years group of WRs. I'm sure you'll spin this somehow, but realize that your opinion could be WAY off (ie: Darnold and Rosen evaluation). That's the point, and does have a bearing if you're gonna act so sure of yourself.

Anytime you mention wasting a "Josh Allen" prime season, I just have to laugh. You were high on the Josh Rosen train, back in 2018. Darnold/Rosen were your top 2 IIRC. So sorry when you like to question Beanes decisions, and act like you have this all figured out/fortune telling how our WRs and offense will do this year. People make mistakes, you should know as noted above (can't imagine sitting with Rosen like you wanted). But here we are, and I agree with @Chaos, we won't be held back by our weaponry. This isnt a top 5 playmaking group, coming into the year, but we have plenty of talent with Kincaid/Shakir/Samuel/Coleman/Cook/Knox/Davis/MVS. I could careless about having 2 top 32 pass catchers, as long as we're moving the ball and scoring. We can spread the wealth and be just as successful as 2020 (best year for Josh), Daboll designed a great offense. Brady needs to do the same.

Literally going to be the same defense, and nothing wrong with that. We were off to a great start, then injuries hit too many key pieces. I actually think we have better depth coming into this season, and Bernard with a full offseason (not splitting snaps) at Mike. McD gets a lot of hate around here, but he's a great defensive coach. People forget we finished top 5 in sacks, a few from the top spot, with Von basically a non factor and no Milano/Daquan for a good chunk. People only remember the KC loss, but stubborn to the fact that we had a very beaten up squad on D, and missing our core (LBs). But to answer the question....identity will be aggressive, sound football. With LBs and nickle corners being very critical to our scheme. Need to stay healthier this year to have a chance deep into playoffs

Yep, alot of good points here and agree. I think the body control/footwork looks better than Mich ST, not sure if by coaching/repetition (since he's still so young) or adjustments. He has those natural "above rim" skills, so hoping they can get him more consistent. I think Beane mentioned during post draft presser, they see some potential for more "explosion", working with NFL strength and conditioning. I think that's the case for most coming into the NFL, at his age. I think that's what alot might come down to: can he improve footwork/quicker breaks and more power to his game (contested catches, getting off press), perhaps slightly faster. He seems to be a very hard worker, so that won't be the issue. Hopefully that untapped potential/talent is there. But yes back to the point of game review, agree on what you said above and saw your note about a busy week. I'll take my time looking through the next game or 2.

1. You're take on "unsustainable" Josh running is getting old. It's just what Buffalo does down the stretch every year. I already proved this in another thread, 60 runs vs 63 (under Daboll vs Brady). If you want to say Brady and this entire team was in desperation to win mode, that's what it is. Let's stop calling it unsustainable, it's not their go to offense unless needed 2. Playmakers: agree. Beane has built a group with alot of "ifs" and hope. Nobody is certain how it will play out, but there is potential for a few that is unknown/untapped: Kincaid, Shakir, Coleman. Samuel is going to be what he always has been, and hoping something happens with MVS or Claypool. 3. I've said it alot, but it comes down to Brady and Josh being less careless with the ball. Brady is another "if"/hope. To me, its fair to say Beane put himself in this 2024 salary cap pickle and he likely has Pegulas trust into 2025. So we "hope" he got some of these dart throws correct. It's not as pretty as Orlovsky wants to say, but some pieces are definitely likely to improve, ie Kincaid. Said same about Cook last offseason. Shakir I'm 50/50 less optimistic on, and Keon will need some time. It's going to be a "committee approach", and Brady will need to be a top 5 o coordinator for this to work well

I'll move that 1st pass to a "drop", it was in my eye as well, mainly because it was a good throw/poor body control on Coleman. Thx for that one. Yeah as of now, thru 3 games, seems we're on same page as you said. Watching all his targets in a very detail oriented way, similar to coaches used to rewind tape/slow motion/repeat, and looking at what his competiton/what he did well in route/body control/etc...he's looking like an avg WR so far (1 good game, 2 lackluster games). One thing I am noticing is his body control, which seems inconsistent so far, on the fade/contested catch situations. I think there's definitely potential to work with, if he clean up his body leverage and footwork at end of route. At least to me, it's an encouraging trait(s) but performance not backing it up thus far

Thanks @PBF81 for the discussion - feel free to add your comments below mine. Game 3: Boston College (Defense: 3rd PA, 26th PY, 83rd SP+ Defense, out of 133) 1. Fade route from slot, OK coverage/zero separation. Coleman had poor body control IMO, could have put on the brakes OR won the contested catch. No drop. Decent corner, Elijah Jones (3rd rounder Ariz) made the pass break-up, due to his length. But Coleman should have won this route before Jones got his hand in. 2. Crosser route/defender drops into middle zone from sugar blitz look. Just a poor decision by JT, throwing into heavy traffic what looked like a pre-snap decision. Had his top slot open to the corner. Pause at Q1 6:05, see what Coleman is looking into & deciding to sit down his route. No drop. 3. Fade route. In general this pass should NOT be thrown, unless it's an EZ shot. Coleman doesn't have any leverage on CB, unless the pass is made to the back shoulder. Poor decision/pass by JT. This was my biggest issue with JT/FL St offense in general, in how vanilla/street ball it was. However, Coleman could have made a better attempt/body control but that pass was an easy PBU by CB (regardless of skill). I'll call it a contested catch. No drop. 4. Reverse to Coleman, well defended/not how I think Bills will use him. FL St just trying to get Coleman involved, b/c of their lack of diversity in passing attack. Overall, a poor passing game for FL St against a solid Pass Defense opponent. Coleman didn't play well on the targets evaluated, and was taken off the stat sheet (his worse performance of year). For the first time in 3 games, Coleman faced some corners with length/size - that neutralized him in general. These are the type of games (3 passing targets), where it'd be nice to see the other passing plays to see if Coleman "won" those routes/was open. This is where we're at though, in terms of information to assess. This is the back/forth that is difficult with Coleman to project; with a Avg/Below Avg college QB (reading defenses), vanilla offense/not much route variety, b/c FL st could get away with it. Contested Catch: Game - 0/2. Season - 3/7 =43% (Single coverage: 3/6=50%, Dbl Cov: 0/1=0%). (***Side note: By my assessment, 2 poorly thrown passes that contributed to misses OR another way of saying it, 3/5=60% on well-thrown passes & Zero times Coleman bailed out his QB. To me so far, I'm seeing Keon as a solid option to let him go get it (true 50/50 guy), but not overly impressive. So this is where Josh Allen might make a big difference in that %, based on decision making & specific match-ups.) Catch Rate: Game - 0/0. Season - 11/13=85%

Agree 100% that this was a poor opponent to get much from, other than what we noted. On play #2, post route, yeah I can see what you're saying and how PFF bucketed that. I will split that out in a contested catch "double coverage" category & include overall, just to see how the #s shake out in the end. Still think JT put that 5 yards too short, but it was a chance for Keon to still come down with it. So I'll include it. Thanks. Agree BC will be better game to look at.

Glad to. Finding it interesting and learning more as I go, comparisons to @PBF81 analysis are helpful. Unfortunately though, its just targets, as that's all I have access to right now. I'd like to look at all snaps, to get a more comprehensive review of his route running, and blocking ability. My impression of watching FL ST games this year, was that passing offense seemed quite vanilla at times. I think even if we had all the tape, there'd be a bit of projecting on certain NFL routes/schemes. Little I've seen of Mich ST targets, they certainly used Keon in more variety (less bubble screens, straight fades).

hey @PBF81 - feel free to add your comments below mine. Game 2: Southern Miss (Defense: 15th PA, 98th PY, 125th SP+ Defense, out of 133) 1. Ok route, no separation - failed contested catch downfield. Had both hands on it/DB gets his arm to knock out ball as Coleman tries to secure. I'll call this a drop 2. Good post route, from slot. Easily beats his man, Travis throws it late & too much loft, should have led him into EZ. Pass broken up by DB/S arms. Missed TD opp. This is on JT. I'm not calling this contested or a drop/not when it's a poor throw & 2 players are in position to make a play. If Coleman is "elite", he comes down with it. But nobody on our roster makes that even possible LY. Not graded 3. Bubble pass, nothing special/penalty for WR holding. Not graded 4. Designed QB roll-out/Crosser by Coleman. Defense keeps good zone integrity/PBU by defense. Not graded 5. Very good route/comeback - gets first on 3rd and 15. Good hands, Great YAC down the sideline avoiding 2 defenders in tight area. Catch, Very Good route/hands, Great YAC 6. Easy PA TD pass/catch. Past this in our playbook, Gabe special. Easy win for FL St, ran for 307 yards/shut down Southern Miss - hence fewer targets for Keon & I only think it's fair to grade 3 of his 6 targets. Overall, I'd call this an OK game, only b/c he made a 'splash'/highlight reel play on #5. But missed out on a chance to show off elite contested catch ability on a couple downfield throws. Not a game FL St needed passing game to win. Contested Catch: Game - 0/1. Season - 3/4 =75% Catch Rate: Game - 2/3. Season - 11/13=85%

Agree on 1 and 2. On 3, I do agree on most of your point. Except I give him more credit on the YAC, showing his agility and ability to continue running as he catches it (not a trait of all WRs, Gabe struggled in any tight spaces after catch/except deep). His gauntlet performance aligns with this too. Agree on above. Agree on contested catch. But would say he had separation to the post, on what looked like an option/JT threw a seam, otherwise this resembles a deep post to Gabe TD. Agree on rest of these. Would call #13 a contested catch as well. Agree this was his best game. By my count 3/3 on contested catches, 100%. 1 drop and 9 catches, 90% catch rate. Showed off downfield ability and contested catch, as well as good ability on the plant for a big man. Drop was horrible. Overall a great game against a poor pass defense, with a couple GREAT Qb throws and some very bad throws. That post read, is a Josh special and most NFL QBs put that on the money/make correct read. That alone likely cost him another 60 Yards and another TD. Poor drop cost himself 20+ yards. And Colemans comments about JT, I see that as just a close player bond. See that all the time in NFL, famous example is Rodgers praising Kumerow like he was some stud WR. So I certainly don't hold that against the kid, rather shows me he's likely a good teammate off the field (which as you said is only 1 piece to the puzzle)

Sounds great, agree with the approach to analyze. Appreciate this, will be fun to compare and I'm likely to learn alot more about Coleman in this exercise. Didn't realize that many of his catches were at/behind LOS, very interesting and thanks for sharing. Brady definitely likes his WR screens, another asset having Coleman for targets/blocking ability maybe more so. Agree, seemed like Beane was trying to at least replace the Gabe skillset (downfield threat/contested catch, and blocking). Just from a high-level, I think Coleman is certainly more raw than Gabe entering the league (from a route running standpoint/downfield). Coleman has more potential though, and definitely brings more versatility in his game, being more fluid/agile than Gabe, IMO. The Gabe vs Coleman production difference in college, is difficult for me to fairly assess...without more research into that Central Florida team. I know FL St had a good ground game, one of the best backs in college this year, and a strong defense. I can't be certain, but seemed like FL ST did play a true complementary/conservative at times offense. Cool, I'll start looking at Game 2.

Sounds good, I'll remove separation from my analysis and follow what you laid out. I included it, more for my benefit, to help with categorizing contested catches and his overall route running. But I can hit on contested catches regardless. Abbreviations: UC-uncatchable C-Catch D-Drop Sep- separation JT- Jordan Travis Re: Great vs Poor, 6 to 2. I was assessing his performance on what I'd consider "gradeable" targets, ie: I won't include uncatchable balls, blown up bubble screens etc. Instead of this going forward, I'll just indicate 'splash plays', IMO. I will say that I think it's fun/interesting, and informative, to review the various outlets player reviews. Personally, I don't watch every snap of a player, usually a cut up. But I also don't treat anything as "gospel" either. Just to say, I'll be using my own "eyes" and thoughts as i review, as opposed to using anything else to support my analysis from PFF, Espn, etc. When I first repsonded to you a while ago, I originally was refuting your point about dropped passes/catch rate, and that some were UC (poorly thrown/thrown late and broken up). And you were using your assessment to make an overall point, as I understood it, that this cut up of film only lowered your opinion of Coleman (which I also refuted). I think the cut up supports more "optimism", than anything else. So I'll stick to these metrics, as defined above: C, D, UC, 'splash plays', contested catches, (and will mention 'hands' as needed to support my analysis on specific targets/overall).

Hey @PBF81 circling back on the Keon "all target" discussion. Couple things of note, as I'm listing all targets and timestamps: 1. Categorization: Drop, Catch, Uncatchable 2. Skill level: poor, ok, great, elite (*for uncatchable, reason why and if he had separation) 3. Separation noted Targets LSU: 13 Targets- 9 Cat, 1 Drop, 3 Uncatchable. Separation- 7 success of 8. 90% catch rate, 88% separation rate, ADOT 10.0 yards (includes all targets: bubble screens/flat routes, etc). Great vs Poor: 6 to 2, 8 graded Targets 1. Q1 11:15: UC, High/inaccurate. Clear Sep-10 yd route 2. Q1 9:20: UC, inaccurate/route was a sideline curl pass was inside. Clear Sep-20 yd route 3. Q1 7:59: C/TD, Great - YAC, Clear Sep-10 yd route 4. Q2 10:40: UC/INT, late pass/bad on JT. N/a on sep- bubble screen 5. Q2 6:50: C, Great-body control. Clear sep-6 yd route 6. Q2 6:00: C, OK. Bubble screen-blown up 7. Q2 4:05: D, poor. Clear sep-scramble drill- 15 yrd route 8. Q2 1:04: C/TD, Great- contested catch. No sep- 21 yrd 9. Q3 13:01: C, Ok- Yac. Bubble screen 10. Q3 5:52: C, Great route/Great body control. Clear sep- should have been a TD with better throw, this was a post but QB threw seam- 40 yd route 11. Q3 4:36: C, Poor-Yac. Bubble screen 12. Q4 12:22: C, Ok/Great- YAC. Flat route 13. Q4 10:22: C/TD, Great - body control/route. Clear Sep-fade, outmuscled DB-8 yr route I'll do more games, but 1 down. Let me know your thoughts.

Re: Brady and impact on Allen/offense, all we have is "hope" and LYs small sample to go off of. I'm just speaking for myself here, but anyone who is calling Brady a surefire improvement on Dorsey is just being overly optimistic. Personally, I didnt like Dorsey. Thought he was ADHD with his playcalling/rhythm. He had his moments, but something I won't be able to confirm but believe, is something happened in that Bengals game or during the offseason that caused riffs. He and McD never seemed on the same page to boot, and Allen just plain out "looked" off. That OC/QB relationship is very important, and it clearly changed during the season. Re Brady, I like his scheme that I saw in Carolina. Another Josh pick. I'm mainly hopeful bc of Bradys ability to put together better gameplans (objective opinion) and adjust in-game. Then what seems to be a very good relationship with Josh. All unknowns, and I could be way off with my "optimism" but I wouldn't characterize it as over the top. I didn't think Beane took a good look at external candidates and I hope that's because of what they see in Brady. But Beane isn't perfect and if he/McD make another OC blunder then someone's head should be on the chopping block

Key thing on all of this is that we have zero sample size on a Brady-led scheme will look like, and a full offseason geared toward practicing the install. I think above factors into basically everything we are going back and forth on. His Carolina time was with a terrible OL and pedestrian QBs. Even if we use LY, there are so many variables behind the scenes that it makes it impossible to forecast results for this year. We do know Josh had a below avg season, for his standard. Re: Cook LY, I think the Beane plan was to use Harris and Murray as a 2a/2b combo, and not put so much on Cook. But then Harris goes down, and Murray was clearly washed. I'd put that mistake on Beane. But it's not like Cook didn't have a great year. It's just that I think he won't be used as much this year, if Davis shows out early