glazeduck

Pretty simple: QB trumps everything else. If you don't have one, you have to take one. The top WRs are pretty special too, special players go at the top of the draft. In the top 10-12 we'll likely see 5 QBs and 3 WRs go (see above) along with a TE, a LT, and likely a CB and DE -- all special. It's going to happen. The market to trade up for a QB is simply too strong to not either take one or trade back. Lawrence and Wilson are locked in at 1 and 2, and the 9ers did not spend 3 1st round picks to not take a QB of the future. 3-3 is a lock, and the other 2 won't be too far behind.

I'm not saying Taron Johnson is a hall of famer, but I think he's far from our biggest weakness that needs addressing. You'd rather upgrade Johnson than: CB2 -- Levi Wallace/Dane Jackson TE1 -- Dawson Knox Edge -- Mario Addison/Jerry Hughes (33/32 years old, respectively) 1T -- Star Lotuleilei (will be 32 this season) WR -- Emanuel Sanders/Cole Beasley (34/32 this season RB -- yuck Again, JOK would be great, add a fun dynamic to the defense and could certainly help cure some of what ails us. I'm just not convinced that a guy who's not going to get 3-down snaps at a splurge position is our biggest need...

Who are you taking off the field for this "desperately needed" Nickel LB? Our slot corner who's played extremely well? The off-ball we just gave a ton of money to? The QB of our defense? One of our top-10 safeties?

Beane loves to play games with the draft... I'm willing to bet he calls in favors on occasion to create smoke, misdirect, etc. This could also be that...

My take on Moses: 1. get intel on his teammates (Harris, Barmore, maybe Waddle?) 2. in case we get a sweetheart offer for Edmunds 3. standard due diligence in case he falls to the 5th or something... I don't see any other real likely scenario for McBeane to be overly interested in him otherwise...

My first read on this topic was one of complete disinterest. Then I started to think about it a little more and I think it's actually a really nuanced *answer* (such that you want to call the following an "answer"). Here's my take: the "answer" is yes, no, and it depends... Yes, from a purely objective standpoint, factoring in bust rates, opportunity cost of the many first round players you'd be able to draft instead, and the general "OMG they paid what for who?" perspective, it's not hard to argue that prices have become exorbitant for rookie QBs. Especially when you already have your stud QB locked in. No, from the perspective of a team that doesn't have a franchise QB, there's almost no price that's too much. As we've seen over the last decade, or so, championship windows, with rare exceptions, are really mainly confined to a talented QB's rookie contract. If you don't have the QB, you don't really have a chance, and when you factor in scarcity, any quality swing at getting one feels like it has to be worth it. Factoring everything in, however, the answer is that it depends. If you're going to pay the current market price to trade up for a franchise QB, you darn well better make sure you're drafting the right one, putting him in the right system, giving him weapons and protection, and aligning a coaching staff that will get the most out of him -- you need a plan for him. If you've got that in place, nothing else really matters; those first round pics being traded away could quickly go from top 5 or 10 to 25 or 30, and the opportunity cost can be offset in free agency or a few solid later picks and quality player development, etc. As we're seeing currently, talented players want to paly for winners. If you can find the right guy, have the right plan and staff in place, the financial support needed to keep building on top of the QB and the balls to make all of it happen, I don't think the current prices being paid are exorbitant. There will be a day when the asking price becomes too much, but I don't think we're there yet.

Quick Twitter search pops these two up. Plenty good enough, but he doesn't win with athleticism anyway, so more of a box to check than a needle mover.

He has concussion issues in his past. But as I've said before, since none of us are team doctors, we'll never know what the true concern level is there. Personally, I don't let stuff that I can't get accurate information on or control factor into how I view players. The teams and doctors will sort out the medical stuff -- if its a concern, then the discussion is moot and he's off the board, but no sense in dealing with what-ifs and rumors when trying to get concrete evaluations...

Also this...

Just gonna leave this here...

Exactly. And even if they had the #1, Darnold may have been the true "their guy", only the people in the war room and a scant few other will ever know for sure, and the way that's played out, absolutely no one will be saying otherwise anytime soon. I'm sure they have a guy that they'd LOVE to have, but sitting at 30, there's dream wants and there's realistic wants. So no, there's not *one* guy that they've targeted that they'll go all in for, even if they tell you that's what happened afterwards. They'll have their board, they'll have needs and wants and value pretty clearly defined, and they'll have to take it from there. There's simply far too many variables to hone in on one guy at 30... Yeah, I think the closest we could be to this sort of thing is my fever dream of Pitts falling to the early teens. Beane & co. will have also scouted out and had speculative conversations with just about every team above us (within realistic reach) about what it would take to move up -- as every team will have. So yeah, in the case that a Pitts, Paye, maybe a waddle start to slide, it's not unrealistic to think we could go get them, but under no circumstances are they honed in at one guy. The Jets at 2 aren't even honed in on one guy! 🤣 Not to be pedantic about it, but Allen wasn't even Beane's only DRAFT pick that night...

Feels like a pop Warner coach wanted to come really close to the bills logo without violating copyright laws. hardest of passes.

Want. Bigly.

I just don’t see what JOK upgrades. I get that he’s a unique talent. I get that McD likes to utilize a S/LB hybrid. I get the sense that people are terrified of TEs, which, eh? but Taron Johnson is no slouch. This is not a real need here. Phillips is the best pass rusher in this draft by a pretty significant margin. Not a tough decision from my perspective...

Doctors will determine the health risk. If they clear him, and clearly he’s an option in this exercise, so safe to say “the did”, he’s easily the most talented player on the board by a country mile, and just so happens to fill a need. That feels exactly like a Beane pick to me...

It’s Phillips and it’s not close.

I don’t think there’s anything that says “poor character” about sitting out the weirdest season anyone has ever experienced. Now, if they got out of shape or into trouble in that time period, then sure, you could look at that and say “I can’t trust that guy to make the right decisions” but only the oldest of old-school football guys will look at the lack of information around this last year and use that as any major knock against a kid. Maybe as the 10th or 11th tiebreaker, but not a serious flag

I sure they pass on THAT pick. Tryon is NOT worth our first rounder. Debatable if he’s even a decent pick at 61...

Would heavily depend on the board, to me. I don’t think a backup 1T is a top 3 need, so I’m not sure if I’d even take him at 61, let alone move up for him. But yeah definitely like him as a player

I like McNeil a lot. My original list focuses more on later round guys, I think McNeil is a 2 or a 3, but certainly he’s not getting talked about enough...

Big meh here.

Some interesting pro day results: Daviyon Nixon, DL Height: 6’3″ Weight: 313 lbs Forty-Yard Dash: 4.9 Seconds Vertical Jump: 28.5″ Broad Jump: 8’10” Three-Cone Drill: 7.68 Seconds Twenty-Yard Shuttle: 4.7 Seconds I'd be very okay with him being our 1T pick Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR Height: 6’1″ Weight: 181 lbs Forty-Yard Dash: 4.43 Seconds Vertical Jump: 37″ Broad Jump: 10’4″ Three-Cone Drill: 7 Seconds Twenty-Yard Shuttle: 4.2 Seconds Bench Press: 10 Reps at 225 lbs Not mind-blowing numbers but plenty good enough. Looks faster in pads than 4.43. Ernest Jones, LB Height: 6’1.5″ Weight: 230 lbs Forty-Yard Dash: 4.72 Seconds Vertical Jump: 38.5″ Broad Jump: 10’6″ Three-Cone Drill: 7.35 Seconds Twenty-Yard Shuttle: 4.30 Seconds Bench Press: 19 Reps at 225 lbs I like this guy more and more. Tape shows up, explosion apparent in testing. I'm guessing this is a guy that teams are higher on than the draftnik community.

Seahawks, Cowboys, Eagles

This is certainly looking WAAAAY too far out, but this should push Pitts down at least a little bit. Should mean Chase gets to Philly at 6 and they were really rumored to be the first team looking at Pitts. After them, really only Carolina feels like a natural/logical landing spot for him in that next handful of picks into the early/mid teens. Cowboys are a possibility but they have a lot of holes to fill and a lot of pass catchers already on board, Giants need to figure out Rudolph's health issues, but usually those things have a way of working themselves out. Based on the $ they gave him, it's apparent that they wanted him pretty badly. After that (barring trades, of course) we're looking at the Chargers at 13 as the next logical spot for him (and then another grouping of teams that don't feel like a slam dunk). Chargers need OL help badly so that's no certainty either... I've said it a lot around here but I have to believe Beane is at least chumming the waters to move up and get him. Whether he lasts that long or not obviously remains to be seen, but its certainly not an impossibility at all now...

That's what's so funny about this particular timing... It really could be both. Between now and when we're on the clock, it's all a chess match, and I truly believe that Beane & co. play the market and make decisions more on value than on specific players or needs. Harris 100% fits exactly what we would need, so this could be both completely true and, if it serves to drive his stock way up, a smokescreen at the same time. He signed Breida for a reason, he loves and thrives in situations where he can be extremely flexible -- I'll bet we see similar rumors about being high on a DE and a CB in the coming weeks too. All of which could be completely true and designed as smoke at the same time...