glazeduck

That's not what this thread is about. We're Bills fans, we're talking about the BILLS' pick. This isn't a 2019 NFL draft hindsight retrospective. I had Metcalf as a high first round talent, thought Oliver would underperform as a top 10 pick and thought Ford was a tweener. So far I'm 3-3 on those. FOR ME, as a Bills fan, draft fan and armchair talent evaluator -- passing on the guy we needed TWICE for two guys I wasn't excited about, in the context of the question posed in the OP -- IS as bas as it can get.

Huh? I’m a bills fan, not an “every team” fan. We had a need, and a truly generational player was there to fill that need. Of course I can hold it against the team I root for for for not taking him. That’s silly.

Do I trust them? Yes. Have they been a big reason why we’re competitive now? Yes. if they make a pick that I disagree with will I learn to like it? Probably not. I trust my evaluation ability. The Oliver/Ford over Metcalf debacle is looking about as bad as it gets and in haven’t “learned to like it”. My hope is that I’ll at least be able to see the line of thinking that led them to whatever decisions they make.

I've settled into the perspective of just not wanting us to botch the pick. I have my favorites (Phillips/Farley/Newsome/Paye in a trade up, Ossai/Oweh/either Moore in a trade back, JOK/Harris/Etienne if we stay put), but at this point, I think it's just about making a good pick. I don't want guys with limited upside (Asante Samuel Jr./Basham/Toney), guys who are weird scheme fits without rearranging other deck chairs (Barmore/Ojulari [torn on him]/Jamin Davis/Collins/really any OL) Don't screw it up, I'll be at least mildly satisfied.

Agreed about Fields’ talent, but don’t believe the clutch gene is a thing. It’s all training how you make use of the 24 hrs you’re given everyday, in my book.

Lance ain't getting out of the top 10 -- maybe not even the top 5... I think Fields is the one we have to worry about getting to NE.

I'm certainly not high on Oweh either, but at least to me, he's got a high ceiling. Can't say as much for Samuel... It's just really a deadzone for our needs. I'm fairly convinced at this point that we trade up for one of Phillips, Paye, Farley or Newsome OR if we just get completely shut out of those guys, will move back. Could obviously be any of the 32 teams and/or his agent, but I find all of the news around Farley all of a sudden to be pretty interesting. Obviously a lot of it is smoke and BS but there's absolutely nuggets (or at least currents) of truth interwoven in what's being put out over these last 2 days...

Lot of work to put this together, nice job. Really only 3 thoughts: I have a very hard time seeing Denver pass on not 1 but 2 potential QBs of the future for a LB. I think PIT is a virtual lock to go OL I'll be super disappointed if its Samuel at 30. It's buying the last car on the lot because we don't want to go to another...

Those are all day 2 crushes for me, ideally. But with you on ossai.

I'm all for trusting the FO and the process. I guess I'm not clear on what your point is... You said you didn't want to win a SB if it meant falling to obscurity shortly thereafter, so I assumed you'd rather they just try to remain competitive for the foreseeable future? The reality is that no team is every going to nail 100% of their picks and develop each of them perfectly, this isn't Madden. 31 teams "fail" every year. All I'm saying is that at some point, if we want to win a championship, we're probably going to have to make a big swing. This isn't it, but it's the right thinking.

You're entitled to your opinion, and as I've already stated in this thread, while the premise is solid, it's simply untenable. That said, the history of professional sports is littered with small market teams that had dynastic aspirations and fell short. We played in 4 straight super bowls, meaning we were one of the 2 best teams for four consecutive years, and yet the only talking points from those years are our losses in the SB or the winners. It's great to want to be a dynasty, it's another thing to achieve it (as my favorite saying goes: "wish in one hand, 💩 in the other, see which fills up first".) All I'm really saying is that AT SOME POINT, history shows that teams on the brink (especially without the benefit of a larger market/glitz & glam/opportunistic tax benefits) who take a big swing are rewarded more often than teams who just consistently try to remain competitive for an extended period of time. This seems especially true in this era of massive QB contracts -- people talk about how our window is huge because Josh is only 24, but that's not the whole picture. Our window closes some when he signs a massive extension, because of the limitations that puts on the rest of the roster. We'll likely remain relevant and competitive, but our BEST window is these next 2 years while Josh is on his rookie deal. Nobody remembers teams for just being good, they remember them for winning a championship. Hoping when the time and opportunity is right, Beane's not afraid to take that big swing...

They were also 30m away from winning the Super Bowl and it took a historic collapse to keep that from happening. Given our history, I think most Bills fans would take a SB win and then falling to the point ATL is now, if given the option...

Sometimes, I think this is right on. In this case, I think the media is talking about Wilson to the NYJ because they haven't really hid their intentions there. The whole world knows Lawrence is going #1 and JAX isn't moving out of that spot. Assuming NYJ and Wilson is accurate, there's no real reason to try to move around the draft board if they've decided he's their guy, so also no real reason to throw smoke or hide your intentions. We'll find out soon, but I think Wilson at #2 is a lock at this point (and is a laughably bad choice)

Forgot Baron Browning. He's intriguing...

Lesser opponents who had almost zero chance to scout/prepare/scheme. That's what's being lost in all of this -- this wasn't JUST Wilson and a bunch of older players beating up on younger, lower-talent guys, it was Wilson and a bunch of older players beating up on younger, lower-talent guys who had almost no chance to do hardly any preparation for them. It was the perfect setup for Wilson to shine, and yes, he did just that. But he won't have that benefit in the NFL. Compare that to Fields, who had as much, if not more, success over multiple years, against more talented competition, in settings where the more talented defense had a chance to scheme and prep for those offenses, in bigger games; is a better athlete..... The only "answer" I can come up with is that Wilson is the shiny new toy and Fields' performance has become boring and expected...

I'll be more than a little surprised if he's still there at our 3.

The brace might be affecting him a little, in terms of planting/driving, etc. but he's never going to be a plus athlete -- with or without it -- so I don't think it's too big of a deal. In my evals, I try to incorporate what I know/can find out about the program for context, and the Stanford program and the P12 as a whole have been a complete dumpster fire during his tenure as a starter, so that certainly muddies things for me. Definitely hits some big-time throws and he has enough arm talent to be a pro (though I don't think that's necessarily a + attribute for him), and you can see some good processing from him too -- but like you said, a lot of bad too. In a league that was behind the rest of CFB (so playing more simplified defenses) I would've hoped to see a lot more highs from a guy who's an NFL starter.

In order of crushiness... Nico Collins Joseph Ossai Kelvin Joseph Wyatt Davis Devine Diablo Dwayne Eskridge Paulson Adebo

This is my list too. I'd have Fields and Lance a touch higher (pts. wise) and Wilson a touch lower. I have Mond at 6. And I think he and Jones are back-of-league starters/Mills is a backup, but maybe a higher end backup...

The Epilepsy thing is certainly weird, but it didn't stop him from becoming the #1b prospect in high school and an elite athlete and QB at the highest highs of CFB. I think you could even argue (and why his agent isn't, is beyond me) that the fact that he was managing something like Epilepsy WHILE excelling means he has the maturity to be the face of your franchise, but I digress... Wilson made some great throws, and Lance has just drool-inducing potential. I get both of those. But Fields has literally done everything asked of him since high school. He happened to be born in the same year as one of the highest rated prospects ever, and he's kept on his heels the whole way. Why a guy who hasn't done it yet, and another who did it in incredibly bizarre circumstances has jumped him is both beyond me and also makes me think that he's very much being taken for granted at this point.

Key word there being "can". In this case, the answers are "yes". Fields is going to end up being the steal of this draft, even if he goes 4 overall (where I happen to think he'll go). That he's being passed over by Mac Jones and Wilson is absolutely absurd to me...

This means 2 things to me, neither of which have anything to do with Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields... The media has run out of legitimate talking points to discuss pre-draft. The media (or at least NFLN) is convinced the 49ers are now taking Mac Jones.

Like Gunner said, there’s maybe a few subpackages that he’d be fine there, but we’re in trouble if he’s out future 1T. I’m not a huge believer of Oliver so I wouldn’t hate the pick, but I don’t think it happens with a significant 1T intention in mind (or, at all).

I've suggested something somewhat similar, but going up to 4 is too much. We have too many reasonable-sized needs and simply can't afford to ignore them completely like this. At one point it was at least debatable that he could slide near or into the teens -- at which point I agree, if you can get a couple late picks back, putting 1, 2 and 3 together would've been worth it because there's a halfway decent chance that those late picks would have similar outcomes as the 2 and 3, but it's just not feasible to get all the way up to 4 and fill the holes we have at edge, CB, OL, etc.

At 30 it's 100% speculative. I'm just pointing out that no GM goes into a draft with ONLY helping out the offense in mind. That's not his job. This isn't video games or fantasy football. The goal is to win games, whether the score be 3-2 or 100-0, Beane's job is giving the staff the right players to win more games.