glazeduck

Cole Beasley brought those same "concerns" with him and he's done quite nicely for us. Moore is like Beasley on supersteroids.

That was the name that popped into my head when I read the "RAC WR" comment. He does seem to check a lot of this staff's boxes (elite athlete, young breakout/dominator age, fits multiple needs, versatile weapon, starred in a big conference, great separator, etc.)

This year, with ALL visits being over video chat, will be a really interesting test against the "visits=interest" theory. If I'm a GM, I'm actively wanting guys I'm pretending-but-not-really-interested-in to let reporters know that I've been in contact with them, and I'm wanting guys that I really want to absolutely say NOTHING about my contact with them. I wouldn't be altogether surprised if there's actually a negative correlation this year, to that end. Should be interesting!

You're asking the wrong guy on that one, I wasn't a big fan of his, but I would guess versatility, great tape, endless motor, consistent production in a big-time league, room for growth and positional need were among the reasons? BTW my "is this a serious question" was a serious question, I didn't mean offense, just wasn't sure if you were joking or not... RAS and athleticism are becoming big determinants in draft slating but they can't be the only determinants.

Is this a serious question? Bobby Hart is maybe 50/50 to even make the active roster. It's okay to shoot a little higher for that for your draft picks...

He says he deserves discussion about being a first round pick. That's not the same as saying he will be good. The draft -- especially first rounders -- are often more about potential than anything else, which is the argument for taking Meli anyway. Somewhat of a moving target -- I usually try to dial in the top couple rounds pretty well, so usually around the 75 mark. From there I'll try to form informed and fairly structured opinions on the next 100 or so players that could potentially impact my world (Bills fan, Ducks fan, fantasy player, etc.; which is basically to say that I ignore Special Teamers), but those are a lot more loosely tiered than ranked -- if you wanted to quibble about one 4th or 5th rd player being rated over another, I wouldn't make it a big deal but could also probably rank most of those guys if you held a gun to my head. After that I like to have at least a fuzzy understanding of the next 100ish guys in terms of ability/game/scheme fit, etc. and usually develop a few favorites, but by no means am I ranking or generally even tiering those guys...

Nope. It's about the athleticism at that size. It's one thing to run fast and jump high, it's another thing to do it at an outlier size for your position. No one is saying that because he did those things he will automatically be good. Just that of his small group of cohorts who tested at those extremely elite measurements, all but one, really, have been successful. Freakish athleticism at uniquely freakish size = success in football, crazy concept...

Could be part of it. I think there's also a lot of smoke around it -- whether from a fire or a smokescreen, we'll see. But I've seen a few theories out there about the 9ers putting it out there to manipulate other teams/leverage Jimmy G, etc. We may never know the full truth, and I tend to agree that Fields will (or should) be the pick too, but the Shanahans have never been afraid of going against the grain, and certainly the 9ers FO isn't afraid to go different either. One theory I have is that the narrative around Jones is true, but that they'd also prefer to not spend the #3 pick on him, so putting it out there in hopes that whoever trades for #4 is willing to juice it up just a little more and come up to 3 (the 9ers have made several of those "one pick back" trades recently)... At any rate I'm excited to find out!

I've never weighed in on this on this board, and I won't be surprised if this gets deleted, but c'est la vie... This should not be a "both sides" issue. There's science and there's ignorance.

It's 99.9% marketing and hype. Mel Kiper's schtick for the past 15 years has always been about driving attention to the actual draft coverage -- I'm convinced that it's no coincidence that weekly he'd highlight a few "sleepers slipping into the first round" (who would ultimately end up getting drafted in the 4th or 5th) to keep interest throughout the whole broadcast. More recently it's all about clicks, eyeballs, social media interactions, etc. but all the same premise -- who cares about being right until the day before/day-of when you can drive discussion for the months leading up to it (and simply erase any blatantly/purposely wrong takes with a more accurate report right before the actual event!)?

Yeah the baseball thing isn't working out great for Pat Mahomes either... 🙄

Agreed. For me its TDN and everyone else is a ways behind.

No arguments here. Like I said he wouldn't be my pick, more ore less just see the thought process of leveraging our ability to coach DBs up... Also just thought it'd be an interesting discussion (which it has been)... 15 days can't go by soon enough! LOL

Very much not. He's a penetrator, and under 3bills, if I remember right. Maybe right around it? 1Ts need some more junk in their trunk. Now if someone gave us a sweetheart offer for Oliver.........🤔 This is all 100% right, but it also doesn't account for our championship window, which is arguably now. 6 good, cheap players, would be great -- if they all made the team. But nobody will care if they're solid starters 3 or 4 years from now if we end up with 1 great player and they help us in a Super Bowl. Again, it's all a balance... Like you said, trust the GM.

This has absolutely nothing to do with your post, but I had the honor of working with Scott for a couple years. I can honestly say he's one of the best people I've ever met. I hate the Pats with every fiber of my being (and told him so many times) but will always have a soft spot in my heart for that man, he's truly a genuinely good person. Always depends on how the draft is playing out, but I will not be at all surprised if Beane trades up in this draft. I've made the case numerous times in my Kyle Pitts fever dream posts, but this year, more than most years, I think late-round picks will pan out to be much more equivalent in terms of success to earlier-mid rd. picks... If Beane could swing something like using a 3 and getting back a 5 or 6 to get the guy he really wanted, I think that'd be a really shrewd move (and I think Beane is that kind of shrewd, second/third-level thinker).

It's a balance. Beane has talked a lot about how important it is to get his guy. While he's not batting 1.000 moving up, I'm a huge believer in building strong opinions on players and sticking to them... Obviously depends on the situation, but if you're 3 picks away from your spot and there's a lot of "meh" out there and 2 guys that you feel strongly about, it's absolutely worth a small investment to get the guy you like. A prospect (that you like) in the hand is worth two (meh) prospects in the bush, if you will...

Trade down is definitely the best and most likely approach at this spot. That said, I put myself in a "what would I want them to do if they HAD to pick here" headspace and went with Etienne. Don't love it, don't hate it. See him making an impact but also would prefer DE or CB here... It's close between Ossai and Etienne for me, I go back and forth on them... I think the tiebeaker for me is that there's some intriguing options a little later at EDGE, and I'm not really sold on many of the RBs after the big 3 and Sermon...

Barf, my lap, from these options.......

Thanks, I lurk and read almost every day. Just harder to be really tuned in to the day-to-day stuff on the other side of the country, so I'm generally less informed and opinionated than I am this time of year

LOVE the "take off the jersey" players like that... Put a guy with those in a 'Bama uniform and even as a backup he's a 2nd or 3rd round pick. A lot to like about Elerson Smith!

Yep, this is what just about worst case scenario for us looks like

As a player, I have him as a mid/late 2nd round grade. I think what needs to be considered though is: 1. Our staff seems to be VERY good at identifying undervalued secondary talent 2. They also seem to be pretty solid at developing that talent 3. Meli is an absurdly different athlete 4. Per the tweet I posted, there appears to be a pretty dang good hit rate for big-bodied plus athletes at CB recently. None of that means he'll be a success. It's also probably not the pick that I would make, but if its where the staff chose to go, I could understand it. You're taking a phenomenal athlete and hoping you can mold him into a phenomenal football player -- something they've shown a solid propensity for doing. And again, you have close to, if not a full season of "onramp" for him to develop into the player you're hoping he can become before you really NEED him to perform. Whatever you think of Obi, he was without question an incredibly impressive athlete as well. Add to that, the fact that the Raiders (who drafted Obi) have almost nothing to show for the drafts between 2015-2018, in fact it's almost a 100% bust rate, which to me, speaks as much, if not more to the organizational culture and inability to develop talent, than it does the specific players that are (or in this case, are not) developing.

I posted yesterday that I thought he'd probably be the next CB taken after Farley and Newsome... I don't have him on my board that high, but I do believe that Buffalo has the luxury of being able to take a guy they can develop through the season with the logic that we're probably looking at a 10 or 11 win season even if we're not drafting immediate difference makers... If those guys can be difference makers by the time the playoffs roll around, it's a risk well worth taking. Meli is raw, but in super rare company when it comes to body type and movement. Not a lot of misses on that list...

I think (from the list of players likely to be there) Teven Jenkins and AVT would be the only ones that would be worth considering, and only if you think you can drop them into one of the guard spots as a day-1 starter. Ford has potential as a guard, but we haven't really seen *it* from him there, yet. So if you're getting a guy who can play OT or OG and an improvement over the other guy who can (sort of) play OT and OG, next to the guy who can play OG and OC, I think you're building depth and flexibility really across the whole line with a minimal number of assets. All that said, definitely think there are bigger needs to address.

Barring the obvious names at the very top, the only cb that would represent good value at 30 is Newsome. Melifonwu, purely from a “package” standpoint would probably be the guy after that (still pretty raw though). Molden is a nickel guy, pretty much exclusively, and with limited upside. Samuel would be *okay* value in the 3rd but even then he’d be underwhelming to me. To me, neither offer much, are very exciting prospects or feel like especially good fits for us. There’s a big grouping of cbs in the mid-2nd to mid/late 3rd that would be looking at: Meli, Campbell, Adebo, Trill Williams, Kelvin Joseph, Stokes, Aaron Robinson, St. Juste, Marco Wilson, Shaun Wade, Mukuamu... If we end up drafting a cb, my guess is it’s in this range and very likely one of those guys.