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Everything posted by ComradeKayAdams
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Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I personally know multiple Bernie supporters who will be voting for Trump in November. They seem to be motivated as much by dispassionate strategy as they are by anger toward the DNC. A sound Trump victory over Biden is supposed to be the second best outcome for progressives (aside from the obvious of Bernie beating both Biden and Trump) to try and take over a then weakened and humiliated Democratic Party. The pandemic fallout is also supposed to make the need for progressive policies like universal health care, student debt relief, and minimum wage hikes that much more obvious to the otherwise low-information, "orange man bad," Biden-voting Dem. I won't bother explaining their reasoning any further because I think it's foolish. The Democratic Party has proven to be corrupt to its ossified neoliberal core and beyond any internal reform. The latest example among many is the complete bipartisan support of the disgusting coronavirus bailout bill that was just passed. Even all of our so-called progressive Democrat heroes like Bernie Sanders, Liz Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, and The Squad could barely muster effective collective pushback beyond a few lame speeches. Feckless at best, complicit charlatans at worst. This was the most galling example of crony capitalism in American history with virtually no enforced oversight of the gigantic bailout money about to be siphoned off to large company CEO's over the next several years. This is worse than anything we saw in late 2008-early 2009. And then the hoi polloi were allotted $1200 checks to keep quiet for the time being. Maybe...or maybe not? My preferred strategy is to burn the Democratic Party down from the outside. Coordinate nation-wide worker strikes in the spring, organize grassroots protest movements in the summer, vote Green Party in the fall, and possibly organize a new People's Party beyond if the Green Party proves unwilling to try and actually win elections. Voting for a corrupt senile rapist war-mongering neoliberal low-key racist like Biden is only enabling the establishment Dems. Voting for Trump is only enabling a 40-year tradition of a failed Reaganomics libertarian economic philosophy that has hollowed out the middle and working classes, to the point that half of this entire country doesn't have enough savings to survive more than a month of a pandemic quarantine. Voting for the Green Party is at least a genuine vote for progressivism and can help them reach the critical 5% general election benchmark. I think I've now said all that I needed to say here in the "Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread." I don't care anymore what happens to this disgusting political party. I'll give the Republicans credit in that at least they are honest and upfront about who they are and what they believe. The Democrats no longer represent the working class and probably never will again. So I don't have a strong opinion on the Andrew Cuomo emergency option that has been bandied around the internet. But my advice to the Democrats is to go ahead and make the switch at the convention if your only public policy is beating Trump, as has been made obvious since Super Tuesday. I think Cuomo could conceivably stoke the necessary voting enthusiasm in the general election to win. I've long doubted Biden's ability to seal the deal, and that latest enthusiasm poll only reinforces my doubts. Force Biden to step down in July for "health reasons" or due to the Tara Reade controversy. The optics of wasting everyone's time during the primaries to undemocratically select a candidate at the convention are...well...not good, but at this point the bar for DNC political integrity is so low that Cuomo can easily clear it in July. Anyway, my political rant is over. Stay safe, everyone, and God bless all you health professionals! We will celebrate your heroism after all of this passes. -
Could the Bills afford him if they also want to extend White, Dawkins, and Milano? If so, he'd be a perfect fit in Sean's defense. There's still a need for someone to play strong-side DE. I think Addison prefers playing on the same side as Hughes, Murphy isn't good enough to start, and I'm not sure if an obvious high-quality DE exists in the draft after the first 50 picks.
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Wooooo! Kyle nailed it (see clip: 2:12-3:35). He didn't explicitly mention a Diggs trade, but the sentiment was 100% correct. I love the Bryce Paup reference (I would also add Mario Williams in 2012). I LOVE what the Bills are doing up in Buffalo. Maybe the third best AFC team on paper right now?! I appreciate everyone's kind words in this thread. I know all you dirty old WNY men have (red, white, and) blue balls right now, but I'll be back soon enough. In the meantime, enjoy:
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Projected 55* & Roster Discussion (Draft)
ComradeKayAdams replied to BuffaloHokie13's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I don't know, to be honest. I had assumed Howard was coming to Buffalo. There should be plenty of additional options through the draft and post-June cuts. Maybe the Bills should call Marshawn Lynch?! I saw him on the Westworld season opener the other night while locked up in my apartment waiting out this coronavirus apocalypse. -
It’s clear.....Super Bowl championship or bust
ComradeKayAdams replied to Walking Tall's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
It's all part of their 4-year plan! 2017: build locker room culture 2018: build defense 2019: build offense 2020: finishing touches for deep playoff run Bare minimum goal should be AFC East Division title and first playoff victory since 1995. -
Projected 55* & Roster Discussion (Draft)
ComradeKayAdams replied to BuffaloHokie13's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
He might be too expensive and not want to share carries with Singletary. We're almost done with free agency. Just need to add a vet RB to replace Gore and maybe Chris Harris too. After the draft, Beane also needs to extend White, Milano, and Dawkins. Of the OP's list, I think the following players end up getting replaced with draft picks and other free agents: Yeldon, Wade, Foster, Croom, Boettger, Thompson, Dodson, Phillips, Lewis. Interesting note: 5 players on the roster have connections with Carolina, all on defense (Butler, Star, Klein, Addison, Norman). -
South Carolina Primary 2/29
ComradeKayAdams replied to B-Man's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Yup. Doing the following voter math is incorrect: Sanders + Warren + Gabbard = total % progressives. Bloomberg + Biden + Klobuchar = total % moderates. Many people don’t vote along political ideological lines like that and sometimes (unfortunately) don’t even know much of anything about the public policies of the candidates. They may vote instead on perceived electability, personality, physical appearance, age, geographical representation, gender, race, single issues, and so on. The proof is with polls that show the second choice for voters. You’ll often see a progressive second choice paired with a centrist first choice, and vice versa. As I think I mentioned before, there’s actually a fair amount of evidence that the Democratic Party voters and the American population at large may be quickly shifting to the progressive left. Take Medicare For All as an important example: I saw a Reuters poll where 70% of overall Americans were in favor of it and so were 85% of Democrats. You see similar trends with a variety of other individual progressive policies. Polls going against this argument usually revolve around the word “socialism” and the electability of a labeled “socialist” candidate. The Bernie campaign, however, has internal (un-scientific) canvassing data suggesting that this stigma is eroding in practically every demographic. It already collapsed with the Millenials. But who knows? We’ll find out the truth soon enough. -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I’d like to say that it’s none of my business how others spend their money. But we don’t live in an anarcho-capitalist society. If you like living in the US and you like the Constitution, then right away you are relinquishing some level of autonomy for the paid service of national defense. I also assume you like the fire department, law and order, transportation, maybe the post office, etc… so as you see, you are already acknowledging that not all economic goods and services you consume should necessarily be subject to the whims of the free market. The key argument from the progressive left is that we should spend the next 8 months revisiting the following goods and services in a similar way: 1. Health care: Is tying health care access to employment status reasonable? Should people suffer or die if they didn’t choose a high-enough-paying job or if they have struggled finding decent employment? Should families go bankrupt over health issues? Are other modern industrialized countries around the world doing it better and cheaper? 2. Education: most of us are okay with providing free public education from kindergarten up through high school. Why is that? What about child care and pre-k care during the most critical development stages in a human’s life? What about college and trade school? Are the outrageous costs of higher education prohibiting working class families from attending? How is student loan debt affecting the rest of the country’s economy? 3. Environment (air, water, public land ownership, energy extraction, etc.): this could get pretty contentious if you don’t believe in global warming, but at the very least I hope you acknowledge that our use of air and water can have negative economic externalities that require government oversight. Analysis of Biden’s win and overall strategy: Hillary won SC roughly 75% to 25% in 2016, so it was always going to be a major struggle for Bernie to do much better in a Dem voting pool that skews old and centrist. This time, Biden won about 50% to Bernie’s clear second of 20%, with 4 other viable candidates in the race taking the remaining 30% (interestingly enough, exit polls had people in favor of Medicare For All at 50%, even though Sanders is the only candidate currently supporting it). So Biden did succeed in part one of his questionable strategy, which was to put almost all his campaign resources into securing his SC firewall. Part two of his strategy is now to ride this momentum and his “most electable” narrative into Super Tuesday and beyond. The major problem here is that Biden has practically no ground game or advertisements running in the Super Tuesday states! He put too many of his resources into winning SC. Fellow centrist Bloomberg is also in the race and eating into Biden’s vote percentage, and Bloomberg at least has the ads and a (sloppy but well-paid) ground game he put together at the last minute. Meanwhile, over here in Bernieland, we have a large, well-funded, well-organized grassroots ground game installed all over the country that has been extremely active since last February. The Super Tuesday polls largely reflect our superiority in organization. Understanding Biden’s Appeal to Centrist Dems: Yeah…I can’t do this one. Is it his amazing public policy platform of not being Trump and being friends with that one black guy from a few years back? His extensive history of government bribery and crony capitalism? His approval of the student no-bankruptcy bill? His support of the prison-industrial complex? Or his decades-long history of warmongering neoconservatism? Or his decades-long history of middle class-destroying neoliberalism? His potential for cutting social security? Or maybe it’s simply the large crowds he attracts at events? His highly organized campaign organization flush with cash? The way he challenges voters to fights and push-ups? The way he creeps up behind young women? Perhaps it’s his stellar debate performances? His dementia-fueled gaffes? His soft racism? His youthful exuberance? The sexual allure of his pearly white dentures? His excellent parenting of Hunter? What is it?! In any case, I find the centrist Dems’ affection for Joe Biden absolutely adorable. Like a kitten hugging a puppy. Awww…some think he actually has a chance! How precious. Have your fun for a couple more days, centrist Dems. But by Wednesday morning, it’s time to BEND THAT KNEE to Comrade Bernie. My pre-Super Tuesday power ranking: 1. Sanders – only question now is whether he gets the 1,991 delegate majority or whether he goes into the convention with a plurality and the joyous opportunity to have superdelegates undemocratically steal his nomination (as Milwaukee burns to the ground). 2. Bloomberg – the only centrist with the money to go all the way to the convention. 3. Biden – top current centrist who is only popular with black Boomers in the South, but will exit after deal made with Bloomberg sometime in March. 4. Buttigieg – only staying in because the Deep State told him to, but will exit Tuesday night [EDIT: ooops, just found out he's gone! Yay!!!] 5. Warren – fake progressive who is only staying in to keep Sanders from winning Massachusetts or running away with California delegates, but will exit Tuesday night. 6. Klobuchar – only staying in to keep Sanders from winning Minnesota, but will exit Tuesday night. 7. Gabbard – doing her Sanders VP tour, energizing the independents and libertarians! -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Good personal story and a quintessential American one, but as you said yourself, you needed a lot of people to help you along the way. What about the people who are telling us that they're not finding sufficient help? What percentage of these people are too lazy? Entitled? Hopelessly incompetent with their personal lives? Too immersed in victimhood? Indoctrinated in the left-wing school system? I don't think these kinds of blanket statements and accusations are productive if there is a genuine interest in halting the rapid rise of the progressive left-wing. I'll reiterate what I've said before somewhere in this monstrously large thread. There are two central themes behind the Bernie Sanders political movement of the post-Great Recession era (2008-now): 1. The corporate elite have corrupted America's political, government, economic, military, and media institutions to a now completely intolerable level. 2. Absolute wage growth is not keeping pace with the cost of living and health care and post-secondary education. The centrist Democrats since the 1990's and the Republicans since the 1980's have either done a terrible job addressing these issues or have done a terrible job communicating their thoughts and solutions to the working class, Millenials, and minorities of this country. -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Can I have it? I'm a Bernie-loving freeloader. So the privatized social welfare solution is exactly what the Founding Fathers had in mind. It made sense back then when you had a much smaller, more static, and less complex society with a vibrant Christian culture of private charity and strong grassroots political structures. But in the year 2020, it no longer makes sense to not have some sort of federal government-mandated social safety net. Government waste and corruption is always a problem, so we need to be more vigilant in policing these abuses. But this is better than having to rely on the Mike Bloombergs of the nation to bless the rest of us with their wellsprings of generosity. Speaking of Mike Bloomberg: he is worth about $65 billion. How much of that is going toward job creation? How much of that is he and his family even capable of spending in multiple lifetimes? The $2 billion that Bloomberg is using for his narcissism-driven presidential campaign could have been better spent on dramatically mitigating the homeless crisis in California, for example. As Bernie mentioned in the Nevada debate, people like Mike Bloomberg need to understand that they didn’t earn their money in a vacuum. Lots of other people worked very hard too to help him achieve what he did, and his company functions within a framework of an entire civilization that he did not singlehandedly generate. Paying taxes is part of the social contract we all sign up for in exchange for living in a civilization. The only question is how much taxation is enough? How much is too much? The political process and the first amendment can help us reach a specific answer, but the point is that the working class and Millenials and minorities are giving the country strong hints right now that the current Reaganomics trajectory isn’t working for them. Let’s try to avoid future Robespierres and guillotines and engage in a constructive dialogue with them, no? Comments on the Dem Primaries: Of the 19 states and US territories decided by Super Tuesday, it’s looking like 9 will go to Bernie, Minnesota will be a close one between Amy and Bernie, Iowa was essentially a tie between Pete and Bernie, 7 states (Texas, NC, VA, Tenn, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and SC) will be between Bernie and Biden with Bloomberg acting as a third-place spoiler, and Alabama will be the only contest where Bernie is expected to get blown out (but still finishing second). Those establishment Democrats who want to see the nomination stolen from Bernie at the July convention are going to have a VERY difficult time making that case after Super Tuesday. Five more days! -
I hear ya. I’m not familiar with the details of the individual financial contributions that AOC receives. I do know that she is very popular throughout NYC and that it would take some extremely creative gerrymandering to ever undermine her Congressional future. Moreover, it would be a terrible political strategy on the part of centrist Democrats to attempt anything like this, as she is now seen as an “untouchable” progressive. The political blowback to centrist Dems would be severe and widespread throughout the country. It’s rather remarkable how much power Pelosi has already ceded to a 30-year old political rookie, but it also speaks to the level of frustration the progressive left has reached and to where the country’s political future is likely headed under Millenials’ control.
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Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I think that ratio is only useful as a rhetorical device for left-wing progressives. The actual number, of course, tells you very little about the state of economic affairs. On the impoverished end of the spectrum, we only care about data pertaining to socioeconomic mobility and human health. On the super wealthy end of the spectrum, we only care about data on job creation and GDP. How much “socialism” and how much “capitalism” we should inflict on the national economy probably depends largely on the state of these numbers. You’ve been having a really great conversation here, so I don’t mean to get in the way, but my own recommendation (based on personal history with these kinds of discussions) is to avoid economic theory involving classical and Keynesian economics and what not and focus more on practical, real-world examples of New Deal mixed economy countries that we’ve seen since the mid-twentieth century. Australia, Canada, UK, and Germany are maybe the best case studies for the US. Many of these economies are doing reasonably well, with their citizens very happy with their social safety net programs like universal health care. All have yet to collapse into communism (there are just 4 current communist countries in the world: China, Cuba, Vietnam, and Laos). Venezuela’s economic crisis is also a good case study to debate, since there is a lot of misinformation floating around that topic. Also, this week Bernie’s campaign provided a more detailed review of his domestic agenda which might help foster a productive discussion (summary: it’s New Deal capitalism, not communism): https://berniesanders.com/issues/how-does-bernie-pay-his-major-plans/ One last related thought on this subject: wealthy CEO ranks are filled with individuals who would be clinically diagnosed as sociopaths or psychopaths, at rates much higher than among the general population. This is something worth considering when trying to analyze why laissez faire economies tend toward societal instability. These dangerous people, of course, gravitate toward government power as much as they do corporate power; too much power given to government is extremely problematic as well. We’ve already seen them in the Dem primaries! Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris are the most conspicuous to my amateur psychologist eyes. Switching subjects to the Dem primary horse-race: it’s now down to Sanders as the frontrunner and either Biden or Bloomberg as the centrist/moderate challenger. I don’t have a whole lot of super cool Bernie campaign insider info to share. Based on internal canvassing data, there are some optimistic indications (for us, at least) that the Overton window is very rapidly shifting left in the country, not just with specific domestic policy issues but also with the general label of “socialism.” There are also concerns, however, among high-level campaign staff that the Bernie movement is stalling with African Americans over 40 and suburban liberal moms. In any event, the three-pronged base of the Bernie movement (working class, Millenials, Latinos) has been solidified and is significant enough on its own to enter the July convention with enormous leverage. Are you a potential Bernard Brother sitting on the Dem Party fence? A prospective Sanders Sister? If you ignore MSNBC and just look at all of the polling data, you will see that Bernie Sanders is clearly the most electable of the 8 candidates. No worries; we’ve got this. So to anyone ready to join: we welcome you with open arms! But also…hurry up and do so before Super Tuesday so that Bernie has a better shot at avoiding a brokered convention! -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I woke up this morning feeling something. Biden reaching for side boob? No. It was The Bern whom I was feeling. Bernie Sanders continues to grope MY VERY SOUL. Here are my Bernie-biased thoughts: 1. Quick Analysis of Last Night’s Debate: I just finished watching a very condensed version. I am not a fan of this debate format and don’t give much credence to the perceived winners and losers. But if I were to grade winners and losers in this pointless pageantry, I’d say Warren clearly won first place, Bloomberg clearly finished dead last, Bernie did good enough as the frontrunner, and none of Biden or Buttigieg or Klobuchar did enough to stand out in any positive way. We’ll find out this weekend if Warren saved her fading campaign (I think it’s too late for this Hillary sell-out). Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s performance probably opened temporary space for a viable anti-Sanders alternative elsewhere, but this space should close again as early as South Carolina. Much of the latest polling data hints that Bernie may already be winning over older African-Americans and college-educated whites, as the narrative of his questionable electability is changing. Was last night the inflection point of the Sanders campaign? Do all your neoliberal base are belong to us? Not sure. But three decades of failed neoliberalism are hopefully coming to an end (fingers crossed!). 2. Nevada in Two Days: I’ve been told that Bernie’s precinct captains are proceeding as if cheating is an inevitability. They will have the tactics and the “advanced technology” (um, i-phones?) to catch The Establishment in the act. Will our enemies be so brazen? Any more caucus fraud is surely going to lead to some sort of Americanized Yellow Vest movement. I’m also hearing that neither Klobuchar nor Buttigieg added nearly enough campaign soldiers to their state-wide ground game in time for Saturday. It’s almost as if the rest of the competition decided to concede this state to Bernie. Oh well, no complaints! There’s no substitute for hard work, advanced planning, and good old-fashioned campaign organizing. Will the Las Vegas Sun’s endorsement of Biden and Klobuchar erode Bernie’s support? Probably not. No one cares about the mainstream media’s opinions anymore. And while I’ve personally never been to Las Vegas, I hear that the juxtaposition between his working class/Latino serfdom constituencies and the one percenters’ opulence is nowhere near as blatant and galling as in that city. What about that culinary union situation? Not a problem either. MCA offers the same coverage plus more in benefits, as well as the freedom of being able to find employment elsewhere without worrying about losing one’s health care coverage. 3. The Bloomberg Super Tuesday Problem: I’ve been informed that Bloomberg would legally be allowed to suspend his own campaign and “transfer” his staff over to another centrist candidate. The specific legal condition would be that these campaign workers be fully voluntary. This is something to think about if Bloomberg tanks in the Super Tuesday polls and if specifically one among Biden, Buttigieg, or Klobuchar emerges from South Carolina as a serious contender against Sanders. 4. Anticipating Future Attack Ads: Their main objective now is to keep Bernie’s delegate count plurality as far away from a majority as possible so to justify stealing his nomination at the July convention. So how can they do this? Well we’ve already seen most of The Establishment’s playbook. Ramp up the Red Scare tactics and ignore every other advanced country with MCA that has yet to devolve into a communist dystopia. Conflate the actual definitions of communism, socialism, democratic socialism, social democracy, and even fascism in attempt to confuse low information voters. Avoid Bernie’s extensive Senate voting record as a New Deal capitalist to further this distortion. Equate Venezuelan and Canadian and Australian and Scandinavian governments as the same thing, in much the same way that the US and Singapore and Somalia are equivalent capitalist societies. Ignore Bernie’s “Amendment King” moniker in the Senate to say he won’t get anything done. At all costs, step around Bernie’s central campaign themes of corporate elite political corruption and the concept of absolute wage growth not keeping pace with the cost of living (food, housing, etc.) and health care (70% polled nation-wide now like MCA!) and college education (traditionally the easiest way for achieving upward social mobility) since 1980. Equate Bernie’s lifelong criticisms of American foreign policy with treason. Throw in a few perfunctory remarks about Bernie Bro online zealots posting mean things and making people feel sad. Did I miss anything? Please indulge! How to stop Bernie at this point? I am taking notes. 5. Tulsi “Bad B!tch” Gabbard: Rumors are that she’s been visiting Sanders campaign offices on multiple occasions. I have no clue how common such behavior may be, but I will continue to choose to believe it’s because they are sharing campaign intel and collaborating in secret as a Bernie-Tulsi 2020 ticket. ALOHA, *****! Now if you’ll excuse me, it’s back to staring at my Bernie full-ceiling poster, rubbing my pink sickle with a voluminous vibrating hammer, with Rage Against the Machine playing at full volume, envisaging a White House repainted in a dark ruddy shade with the blood of our fallen DNC enemies. I LOVE the Dem primary season. Do you? -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Hello all, Comrade Kay here to deliver my Bernie-based thoughts on last night and on the general primary horse-race: 1. Regarding low voter turnout concerns: the consensus here is cautious optimism. We were ideally wanting 30% and maybe a few thousand more each in both Iowa and NH, but some of the voter suppression can be explained with the “vote blue no matter who” Bernie cohort who just aren’t passionate enough to come out and vote in the primaries (but will be motivated to vote for Bernie in November). Also, a huge chunk of Bernie’s support comes from blue-collar folks who can’t easily get out of work to vote. I was told there were also specific primary voter eligibility technicalities in NH last night that suppressed some of the college student vote. In terms of logistics, we could be running operations a bit better, but perspective is important: Sanders still won the popular vote twice now! I don’t think any Dem or Rep presidential candidate in modern times has done this in both Iowa and NH and still lost the nomination. Hey at least we’re not the tire fire campaigns of Biden and Warren! 2. On the issue of Bernie only getting 25% last night when he had 60% here in 2016: not at all a worry. There were 4 other major candidates competing with Sanders last night, as opposed to 1 in 2016. You can’t simply lump the voting percentages of Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Biden into a “centrist” Hillary voting bloc! That’s not at all what any of the polling data are telling us about these voters. Many people are making their decisions outside the paradigm of “progressive” versus “centrist.” In fact, Bernie is a popular second choice for significant percentages of these voters. 3. Nevada: I’m told that our ground game is considered the strongest in the state, especially with the Latino vote, and that every one of our precinct captains is prepared for all sorts of establishment Dem tomfoolery. I didn’t get any juicy details because campaign higher-ups are supposedly being very secretive about everything. Part of that is because Bloomberg keeps stealing away our campaign minions with huge salaries! 4. South Carolina: this is the premier battleground of the Dem primary. It’s an all-out war for the older black vote in South Carolina now that Biden’s electability argument is falling apart. Once again, no one is giving out campaign secrets because of Bloomberg. But if you want my opinion, you would be a lying two-faced pony soldier *****face full of malarkey if you were to tell me that any of Buttigieg, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg are better positioned than Bernie to win them over. African American Dems over 45 tend to be a pragmatic and deeply cynical voting bloc, but I can’t imagine them voting for any of the aforementioned 3 for obvious reasons (google their names plus “African Americans” to learn why if you don’t know already). 5. Possibilities of a brokered convention: the emerging expectation is that this is unavoidable, so I think the plan is to keep winning pluralities in states while maintaining a safe distance from the neoliberal establishment melee of the other 5 main candidates (I added Warren because she is as much of a true progressive as she is a Native American). There will almost certainly be a lot of Game-of-Thrones-style alliances and backstabbing all the way up to and during the convention. Maybe even our dear old friend Hillary will show up! Yay! The longer some of the establishment candidates refuse to drop out and begin consolidating their support, the better for Bernie. No one knows whether Bernie will acquiesce and make compromises to maintain a seat at the Dem power table. My own opinion is that he will, which would be extremely depressing and possibly fatal to the progressive movement. This is also one reason why I prefer Tulsi a little more, because she’s a badass B word who gives no quarter to corrupt politicians or to failed neoliberal policies. 6. Media McCarthyism: it was only a matter of time. The establishment Dems spent 3 years on the Trump Russiagate conspiracy. And now that the Sanders campaign is gaining sufficient momentum, their media lackeys are pulling up high school essays and distorting quotes from half a century ago in order to smear him as an anti-American Benedict Arnold. Every drunken, over-the-top, Chris Matthews meltdown on MSNBC only helps us more in strengthening the one true weakness keeping us from an intra-party victory: the white college-educated over-45 liberals who still watch cable news. Our canvassing data also shows us that independents are not buying the Red Scare tactics at all. They tend to agree with Bernie’s long and consistent record of criticizing American’s foreign policy. The 1953 Iran coup, Gulf of Tonkin, 1975 Church Committee, Iraq WMD’s, Timber Sycamore, etc…Americans don’t want to morally and financially support this imperialistic nonsense anymore. I wish they’d realize that all of the so-called “moderate” Dems do. Frontrunning Pete the Cheat is maybe the worst of ‘em; he’s further in the Deep State than he is in Chasten’s colon after a couple of bottles from his billionaire donor wine cave…yeah, I went there. What are you going to do about it? Anyway, end of rant. Summary for the TLDR crowd: Bernie’s doing fine. Likely more than fine. South Carolina may be the final stand. After that, we be taking over the Democratic Party. Good luck! Hi Mr. Wild, 1. Gabbard 2. Sanders 3. Steyer 4. Warren 5. Biden 6. Klobuchar 7. Buttigieg 8. Bloomberg FYI, I’m a volunteer for Bernie’s campaign, will be voting Gabbard if she’s still around in April, would probably vote Green Party instead of Steyer and Warren, and would probably protest with a Trump vote if Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, or Bloomberg are nominated. These are solely my own thoughts, however, and probably not a good representation of a typical Bernie supporter. I suspect most will fall in line with whomever the DNC anoints. In 2016, I believe 90-95% ended up doing just that. -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
No, they’re certainly not. And I’m glad your son and friends are navigating life successfully. But understand that public policy is molded by sociological data and not anecdotal evidence. I have anecdotal evidence of people whose lives got massively derailed by health issues. Or of people paying a heavy socioeconomic price for parents who made poor decisions. The data and the polls show that Bernie Sanders is very popular with Millenials overall. If you break down the “Millenials” category by gender, race, class, geography, and so forth to glean more info, then maybe you find a different narrative? I honestly don’t know the answer to that one. All I know is the singular poll numbers for Millenials is really good now for Bernie and has been good for him since 2015. -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
100% in agreement with the bolded. Somewhere between Rothbard anarcho-capitalism and end-game Marxism, our country can hopefully find common ground? We need to provide a social safety net to give everyone a reasonable chance to participate in a capitalist market, regardless of the socioeconomic status of one’s parents or of one’s health circumstances throughout life. However, we also need to be careful about enabling freeloaders and acknowledge the critical role that the wealthy classes play in providing jobs. Hats off to the aptly named Greatest Generation. However, let’s try to implement policies that avoid deep depressions and world wars, right? We can admire from afar the struggles of various humans from the past, but we don’t need to romanticize such human suffering to the point that we justify its existence as necessary character-building experiences. My understanding of Bernie’s education policies are that they do include other post-secondary public education options like trade schools. At one point in our country’s history, free high school education for all was seen as an unnecessarily extravagant public policy. Now the fundamental rationale is that civilization as a whole – and the economy in particular – benefits a lot more when more people receive the proper education to reach their productive potential. Bernie’s plan is an extension of that idea to post-secondary opportunities, one which I will again remind everyone is somehow adopted in many other first-world countries. Education costs have far outpaced costs of living since the 1970’s to the point that many graduates are diverting all of their financial resources – even during the prime years of their career – solely toward food, shelter, and student loan companies and away from all of the other areas of the economy. This is not only a major limiting factor on the economy’s true potential, but a potential ticking time bomb that keeps many economists up at night. -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Hi KRC, This is the central question posed for the Bernie campaign. I gave a very basic reply on page 318, third post down, point #2 of this thread. I would expect the full official details to be revealed at some point in the coming months on Bernie’s webpage, probably as soon as the Dem nomination looks to be secured but no later than July. You will not get them during the Democrat debates or during most TV interviews. I suppose the cynics here are laughing in their laptops right now, thinking that it is either because Bernie secretly intends to soak the productive classes in the country or because he doesn’t have a realistic plan. But for context, realize that it is an extremely common campaign strategy to withhold policy details like this. Many candidates falter because they get caught up defending policy minutiae with opponents and somehow miss the policy forest for the trees. Trump himself understood this campaign concept in 2016 as much as anyone. He never provided the details of his trade policies; he focused on laying the framework philosophy that these NAFTA/TPP deals were unfair and needed to be rewritten. Similarly, Bernie is laying the framework philosophy during the Dem primary season that he differs from the others because of his insistence on the moral imperative to provide every American with health care coverage, regardless of employment status. Over the past few months, we’ve seen many of the other Dem candidates take big hits because of missteps on the singular issue of health care. -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Ok, yes I will be happy to get any inside info I can and share it with everyone here. Just realize that I am merely a local volunteer with no actual power or access to campaign bigwigs. Any insight or opinions I share are either my own or secondhand scuttlebutt. Speaking of BUTT....no one in the Bernie campaign seems to have any fear of Pete BUTTigieg. But I guess that's not really earth-shattering insight, since anyone with a brain realizes that you can't win the Democratic nomination if you are polling 0.00% with African-Americans and any person of color really. The one I'm hearing who is most concerning is Amy K, so tonight is very important for her. If she finishes in a strong NH third, she could be a viable centrist for the party to rally around. Otherwise, her campaign will be running on financial fumes and will probably collapse before Super Tuesday. Warren is also still in play. She could still rebound, but she needs to do it tonight. Bernie's campaign strategy has been to stay away from slinging too much mud at the girls because of the PC woke culture within the Dem Party. Let them all murder each other, then show up later to pick up the scraps. It's the Katniss Everdeen strategy in the first Hunger Games movie, really, but again...this is more in the domain of common sense than amazing Deep Throat insight, so full apologies... While I type with bravado and bluster for fun, I am also very much aware that Bernie's chances are still kind of low simply because there are so many variables at play during the primary season and because he is so very much despised among many within the Democrat Party, the mainstream media, and beyond. I mean...just read the responses in this thread to get a sense of what Bernie is facing between now and November! But I get the sense that everyone involved in the campaign knows this. Chris Matthews types aren't abstract holograms; they show up all the time during campaign activities. The playbook against Bernie is fully anticipated: he's too old, he doesn't get along with people, he has low opinions of women, and he's a socialist. These same 4 concerns will be repeated ad nauseam. The election season will be a long referendum on socialism. If Bernie can convince Americans of the need for a reasonable social safety net, then he wins. If not? Then we're headed to the dustbin of history alongside George McGovern. I will say this, though, since I don't know how many Millenials y'all run into in your day-to-day life: people don't have the same aversion to the word "socialism" as the older crowd does. There is a VERY stark contrast between the Boomers and the Millenials on the campaign trial, with Gen X'ers somewhere in between. Many of us don't even have a single memory of a world in which the specter of the Soviet Union hung over the country. The "socialism" scare tactics are clearly not resonating with the Millenials; conversely, the more accurate "social democracy" message is only getting minimal traction with Boomers. This election is really more about rallying your troops on election day than it is with public policy persuasion. I will say this with great conviction: the Bernie Bros and Bernie Hos are EXTREMELY motivated to get out and vote. Voter apathy is historically a trend for younger people, but this is a new era of political populism and all bets are off. -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Very good question. I don't know the right answer to it, but I can try asking around. I am involved at the very bottom rungs of Bernie's national campaign, but I do know higher-ups who probaby know the answer. Everyone here has already assumed that the DNC and the establishment Dems will do everything they can to bend the rules and rig the system in their favor, so I assume that someone somewhere here has already researched your question. Public policy disagreements aside, I find Bloomberg's campaign strategy entirely nonsensical. When you whip up a political machine at the last second, your ground game and grassroots infrastructure is going to have a lot of holes. Bloomberg can spam the Super Tuesday states with lame advertisments all he wants, but human connections built up over time matter. He also has no apparent answer for the other centrist establishment candidates running interference in the race, such as Pete the Cheat and Sloppy Joe (and also Amy K....we're keeping a cautious eye on her). Furthermore, I don't know exactly how he will be able to pivot from longtime Republican to suddenly staunch Democrat. There is a lot of dirt on him....it will be quite the magical transformation if he is able to pull it off. Somene like Trump could maybe do it, but Bloomberg has only a small fraction of the natural charisma that Trump has. His most ridiculous ploy is skipping the first four states of the primary season like they somehow don't matter. Bold strategy, Cotton! Um…let's see if it pays off?? Meanwhile, over here in Bernie Land, we've been carefully laying the foundation of a highly organized political campaign for AN ENTIRE YEAR. We are now a female majority movement. We own the Millenials and Generation Z. We dominate the working class. We've been slowly taking over the Latino vote too, thanks in large part to national strategists like Chuck Rocha (still waiting on Nevada polling, but we're cautiously optimistic). Independents voting in the primaries? We're leading in the polls for this group as well. There's some polling evidence that Sanders is winning back some of the white working class "Deplorables" of the Midwest that Hillary pushed away in 2016. White college-educated liberals? We've been picking some of them off from Warren's carcass since mid-January. I implore anyone to go check out Bernie's polling numbers in California! Now go check out Bloomberg's too! And most importantly: while Joe Biden has been busy creeping up on little girls from behind and challenging voters to pushups, us Sandernistas have been quietly chipping away at his alleged Southern Democrat "firewall," making inroads with the older African-American base thanks to people like Nina Turner and influential activists like Killer Mike. Biden's firewall should start collapsing any minute now. It could happen tomorrow, next week, or maybe as late as the day of South Carolina's primary. But there is some optimism here that it's on the verge of happening. In conclusion: Bloomberg and the DNC establishment can play around with the rules all they want, but they may be too late in coordinating a counter attack on the progressives. We have the high ground on 'em! Bernie's campaign has moved WAY beyond the sloppy 2016 days and is now WAY more diverse than the pejorative Bernie Bro stereotype of the angry, misogynistic white male trolling in mommy's basement in-between Antifa meetup sessions. Can't wait to clean house at the July convention! Sayonara, neoliberal scum! -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I would be more than happy to do so this weekend and beyond, but honest question first: what will be the appetite for it here? Two main problems I foresee: 1. This forum comes across a bit like a monolithic right-wing echo-chamber with very ossified political beliefs. I don't mean to say this in an antagonistic way or with any genuine malice, but I don't want to waste hours of my free time trying to persuade people who can't possibly be persuaded. I waste enough current free time as it is on the hopeless pit of despair that has become the Buffalo Sabres. I'd much rather have fun with y'all here picking on the rest of the establishment Democrats while also keeping you informed of the Bernie side of things in the great Progressives vs. Centrists civil war brewing within the Dem Party. I have read everyone's responses and I understand your frustration with progressives. Y'all have worked very hard throughout your lives, have made smart and responsible choices, and don't want the government to wastefully extract your hard-earned resources only to enable a bunch of freeloaders. I don't know what more I can truly say on this other than to just try and meet more people outside your immediate social circles such as people from the working class or people under 40. Have open political conversations with them, listen to their concerns, share yours, and don't get too emotionally worked up over it all. 2. The wonky econ papers, data, and links I have come from Keynesian economics Ivy League professor types who - I can only assume - have voted all their lives for Democrats and various left-wingers. I have a hunch that this info will not be well-received here, regardless of the perceived quality of the content. Yes, I've been lurking in the global warming thread for a while...I see what people here think about the world of academia! And just to reiterate, the fundamental assertion of progressives is not that the overall economy since 1980 has not been improving at the macroeconomic scale; the assertion is that it has only ranged from stable to thriving for the professional, managerial, and millionaire/billionaire classes while leaving the working class much worse off (i.e. those without college degrees, those without any stake in the stock market, etc.). Moreover, the situation has now grown even worse since 2008 to include the Millenials and (soon to be) Generation Z of just about every socioeconomic class as they enter the workforce. That last sentence is super important, SO I HAVE DECIDED TO TYPE IN CAPS TO CAPTURE ATTENTION. IN MY OPINION, THIS IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST REASON FOR BERNIE'S RAPID RISE IN POPULARITY. IF YOU ARE AFRAID OF "SOCIALISM" AND WANT TO STOP IT, YOUR "TEAM" NEEDS TO ARTICULATE WAYS OF ALLEVIATING THE ECONOMIC CONSTERNATIONS OF MILLENIALS AND GENERATION Z. OTHERWISE, YOU COULD SOON LOSE YOUR POLITICAL POWER. PERHAPS THE VERY FIRST STEP TO STOPPING THIS MOVEMENT IS TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE IS, IN FACT, AN ECONOMIC PROBLEM FOR THEM THAT HAS BEEN FESTERING SINCE 1980 BUT ESPECIALLY SINCE 2008. IGNORING THE REALITIES OF THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION BY LABELING THE UNDER-40 AND WORKING CLASS WORKFORCE AS LAZY, DUMB, AND ENTITLED IS NEITHER ECONOMICALLY ACCURATE NOR POLITICALLY SALABLE. -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I have, actually, as I used to be a libertarian before I became a progressive! Private charity solutions, lowering the costs of goods and services via less government involvement, trickle down economics, etc.. But if I may so politely bounce the question back to you: why are social welfare programs and progressive domestic policies rising in popularity here? Why is a "socialist" like Bernie even as popular as he is, popular enough that he's on the verge of taking over one of the country's two main political parties? These are policy ideas that were once soundly rejected by Democrats in 1972 and have been rejected fairly consistently at the national executive level between 1980-2008. So why the noticeable change in national opinion? What has happened to our country? -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Can someone help me out with Step 3 below? Step 1: Join Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign listserv. Step 2: Help Bernie get elected president in November. Step 3: ??? Step 4: Mass oppression, extreme poverty, millions of corpses piled up. The twentieth century was tumultuous indeed, but aren’t there a bunch of social democratic countries that made it into the twenty-first century while managing to avoid Step 4? Or have they?! My goodness…what have I gotten myself into?! I’m just a ditzy NFL “journalist” who joined the Bernie Sanders political movement in order to meet cute Bernie Bros. I didn’t realize I was enabling a covert left-wing despot all along… In any event, I do like everyone here because you’re Buffalo Bills fans, so I will put in a good word after our takeover to make sure you get some of the better gulag assignments. Over and out, -Comrade Kay -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
One way in which us Bernie supporters differ so greatly with Trump-supporting Republicans is our approach to economic data. I'm not denying the facts of the current GDP rate of growth, the state of the stock market, or the unemployment percentage. My argument is that these macroeconomic metrics are overly simplistic, incomplete, and often misleading. What about wage growth rates versus cost of living, for example? Or home ownership numbers? Health care coverage percentages? The student debt bubble? Household savings data? Adjusted net wealth accumulation differences between Millenials and Boomers? Economic stats between whites and non-whites? There are reams of data suggesting that conditions are worsening for the working class across the nation - including those Rust Belt swing states - and that the recent USMCA deal did nothing to help the situation. Without a remotely suitable social safety net, a large percentage of Americans are getting trapped in hopeless cycles of socioeconomic stagnation and poverty. It’s fairly depressing to me that so many neoliberals and Republicans either don’t see these large groups of people throughout America or – even worse – don’t care about them and have deemed them as too lazy and stupid for redemption. -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
ComradeKayAdams replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Okay, but I'm not arguing that just about ANY running mate of Bernie's can help him beat Trump. In fact, I only think a very small number of individuals can possibly do it, with Tulsi probably being the best one. I view the pool of potential American voters very roughly as follows: 1. 25% Trump/Republican loyalists 2. 25% Democrat loyalists who think Trump is the worst president in the history of presidents 3. 50% independents who are often apolitical, very cynical of all political institutions, and don't even bother to vote in any given year The Republican faithful will simply not abandon Trump at a time with a (speciously) healthy economy and no clear foreign policy blunders. And registered Democrats would, by and large, get behind Sanders regardless of the VP candidate (do not underestimate the strength of Trump Derangement Syndrome). So that leaves us with the largest target pool of voters that could possibly be persuaded by the VP choice: the somewhat apolitical and deeply cynical independents. And what better candidate to motivate them to actually get out and vote for such a feeble-looking socialist than a young, religious, military woman of color who physically resembles Wonder Woman, surfs, snowboards, trains with MMA instructors, wants to legalize pot, and hangs out with Joe Rogan...yet is also just as politically principled as Bernie and has accumulated solid progressive political credentials at the national level while earning endorsements from people as politically diverse as Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich?! You raised a few really good points that I unfortunately don't have the time right now to fully address: 1. Is Bernie's agenda appealing to a majority of voters? 2. Is it a practical and financially reasonable one? 3. Is it politically feasible? Question #1: In brief, I do feel that the progressive domestic agenda of such things like a living wage, universal healthcare, and student debt amelioration is enormously popular among the working class, the under-40 crowd, and basically anyone right now living paycheck-to-paycheck or suffering from serious medical issues. I will concede, however, to the fact that the professional and managerial classes with investments in the stock market are doing well and likely won't care about Sanders' brand of economic populism. In the end, it will all come down to numbers. Does your team have the numbers? And are they sufficiently motivated to come out and vote? Because I'm highly confident that us Bernie Bros and Bernie Hos are! Point #2: There is a hopelessly nuanced response to this, but to summarize: small Wall Street speculation taxes, the increase of taxes on the 1% (but not to the point where it halts business growth and investments), closing of billionaire tax loopholes, bipartisan government waste trimming, bipartisan crackdowns on crony capitalism, and a DRASTIC reduction/streamlining of the military-industrial complex. The latter point is the biggest one for me and a major reason why I'm an even bigger Tulsi fan than a Bernie fan. Remember that a Bernie revolution is not some dangerous political experiment without precedent! Virtually the entire rest of the developed world has adopted various forms of social democracies by now - Canada, Australia, New Zealand, UK, France, Germany, Scandinavia, most of Europe really, etc... Many of these countries have higher rates of upward social mobility, higher standards of living, higher quantitative measures of happiness, etc... Actually visiting some of these places and talking to these people is what has gradually led me from Randian libertarianism to my current political beliefs. Point #3: Maybe. It obviously depends on how the Congressional elections turn out in 2020 and 2022. I'm not so naive to think the establishment neoliberal Dems will go down softly without kicking and screaming against a progressive agenda. But if Bernie wins the Dem nomination and goes on to beat Trump, that is an ENORMOUS political signal that the people want to move the country in a different direction. Remember that Trump only had about 35% or so of the support from his own political party in early 2016, and yet look at how much he has since reshaped the Republican Party and the country.