DCOrange

This list has gotten so, so bad tonight.

Wow lol, they really included Larry Fitzgerald and Logan Ryan in this

Tier 1: 1. Rodgers 2. Brady 3. Brees 4. Mahomes 5. Luck 6. Rivers 7. Big Ben 8. Wilson Tier 2: 9. Matt Ryan 10. Wentz 11. Stafford 12. Watson 13. Goff 14. Baker Tier 3: 15. Cam Newton 16. Cousins 17. Dak 18. Foles 19. Garoppolo 20. Carr 21. Flacco 22. Dalton/Jameis 24. Eli Manning 25. Trubisky 26. Mariota 27. Darnold Tier 4: 28. Lamar 29. Josh Allen 30. Fitzpatrick 31. Keenum 32. Rosen

https://theathletic.com/1082093/2019/07/22/2019-nfl-quarterback-tiers-rankings/

Yeah, I don't really get that either. Tier 3 is definitely right at the moment IMO.

https://theathletic.com/1945894/2020/07/27/2020-quarterback-tiers-50-coaches-and-evaluators-rank-the-nfl-starters/ I didn't realize Sando had moved over to The Athletic, but he published his annual QB Tiers survey today where QBs are placed on 5 different tiers based on the votes of coaches and "evaluators". Tier 1: A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game. 1. Mahomes/Wilson 3. Rodgers 4. Brees 5. Watson Tier 2: A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game. 6. Brady 7. Lamar 8. Big Ben 9. Stafford 10. Matt Ryan 11. Wentz 12. Dak 13. Rivers Tier 3: A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best. 14. Kyler Murray 15. Cousins 16. Goff 17. Garoppolo 18. Tannehill 19. Cam Newton 20. Carr 21. Baker 22. Josh Allen 23. Bridgewater 24. Darnold 25. Daniel Jones 26. Nick Foles Tier 4: A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup. 27. Mariota 28. Fitzpatrick 29. Tyrod 30. Drew Lock/Gardner Minshew 32. Trubisky 33. Haskins 34. Stidham 35. Kyle Allen On Josh Allen: Vote Breakdown: Tier 2: 4 Tier 3: 40 Tier 4: 6

Gotta imagine with Lavonte David at 100, we can cross Edmunds off the list of possibilities. Tre and Diggs are looks though.

They just drafted two this year (one of which was a 3rd rounder) and Ronald Jones was kind of decent last year. He was #3 in the entire league in broken tackles per touch.

I’m not one to overvalue draft picks but that’s a crazy haul for the Jets.

Ah shoot. Nice try Reddit. Snyder will never do it because it would look weak taking an XFL idea, but I kinda wish they'd just take the DC Defenders name (which I've read is now available but I don't care enough to verify it myself).

This has already been pretty much public knowledge for years now hasn't it?

I just posted this in another thread but one of the Buffalo Rumblings guys did this same thing to predict Allen's Y2 stat line to pretty much perfection. Here's his article on what to expect in Y3: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21155523/how-big-of-a-leap-should-buffalo-bills-expect-josh-allen-to-make-in-2020 TLDR (numbers listed are the low range, mid range, and high range projections): Passing Yards/Game: 155.1, 198.7, 242.3 (Allen threw for 193.1 last year) Yards/Attempt: 5.8, 6.6, 7.5 (Allen was at 6.7 last year) Comp %: 56.4, 60.7, 65.0 (Allen was at 58.8 last year) TD %: 1.8, 3.6, 5.4 (Allen was at 4.3 last year) INT %: 4.0, 2.4, 0.8 (Allen was at 2.0 last year) So basically, historical trends (which he followed in Y2) suggest he likely won't improve very much statistically speaking, but it's not outside the realm of possibility for him to improve.

Might ultimately be nothing, but this seems like the first discovery of actual evidence pointing to the name change. This guy on Reddit found evidence that the new team name may be the DC Sentinels.

The Colts QB situation wasn't rated any higher than Buffalo's, but honestly, I wouldn't at all be surprised if teams would prefer to have a vet that they think they can count on and a couple potentially promising young QBs than just having Allen and nothing behind him. Indy probably has more flexibility to bring in a new QB as well since they haven't really hitched their wagon to a QB like Buffalo mentally has. At any rate, I think that one could go either way, which seems to be what ESPN believes as well. And I think you're just flat out wrong about Pittsburgh. I think most teams would likely take Roethlisberger and future draft picks over hitching their wagon to Allen. Ben is still viewed as arguably a top 10 QB in the league or at minimum top 15. The Colts situation is definitely more debatable, which is why their QB situation tied Buffalo's.

That's totally fair and I certainly hope you're ultimately proven right. Also, just FWIW so I don't get lumped in as someone that has hated Allen from the get-go, I had a top 15 draft grade on him (and also said I'd be comfortable taking a chance on him in the top 10) and predicted that Buffalo would trade up into the top 10 to take him. https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2018-draft/josh-allen/ https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2018-draft/2018-mock-draft/

I mean, of course he can't tell you Allen has for sure plateaued. None of us can see into the future. I won't try to put words in Biscuit's mouth, but my opinion is essentially this. Historical trends have shown that QBs statistically improve pretty significantly from Y1 to Y2. From Y3 onwards, the historical trend is that it's just up and down from there on out, ultimately evening out as being pretty much a flat line. You can find evidence of that from a lot of different sources, but Skarecrow over at Buffalo Rumblings has an article specific to Allen and what kind of progression (or in some cases, regression) we should expect from him in Y3 based on historical trends. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21155523/how-big-of-a-leap-should-buffalo-bills-expect-josh-allen-to-make-in-2020 And for reference, here was his piece where he compared 2019 Allen to what he projected for 2019 Allen (TLDR: Allen improved by pretty much exactly as much as you'd expect from a QB in Y2). https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/7/21046646/how-big-of-a-leap-did-josh-allen-take-in-2019-buffalo-quarterback I think Allen has the physical tools and intangibles to make him as likely as anyone to buck the historical trends and continue making meaningful improvements to his game statistically speaking. But make no mistake, he will be an outlier if he's able to do that, and if he isn't able to do that, it will be difficult to justify giving him a long-term contract. That doesn't mean the sky is falling or anything. With the defense and the offensive supporting cast we have, we can certainly win with him. And being on a cheap salary for two more years, he has plenty of time to prove himself before we have to lock him in long-term. We're in a really good spot as a franchise.

I don't think that's true if the product drops off this year (which...how do we even quantify that?) If play is more sloppy this season, it isn't necessarily due to the lack of preseason games. Players' offseason routines were totally thrown off this year as well as training camp and preseason.

I think he carried a very heavy load in that playoff game, but it would also be accurate to say he wasn't able to carry the team very far in that game. Definitely had some let downs from teammates at particularly bad times (like the John Brown toetap for example), but at the end of the day, the defense gave us an opportunity to build an insurmountable lead and all we could muster were a bunch of field goals against one of the worst defenses in the league.

For those that are interested, the data set can be viewed here: QB Share Data I also at least attempted to adjust for the number of starts by using a team's average offensive yards per game. This makes Allen's rookie season look very good, though it's possible this is partially skewed by the fact that he came off the bench for half a game. At any rate his rookie season was probably better than his sophomore season in terms of his share of the team's offense if I had to guess. It should also be noted that in 2019, he technically started all 16 games but played very little of the last game and therefore that will hurt his 2019 number. I also created a second data set of QBs that started all 16 games in a season dating back to 2010. From this set of 151 QBs, Allen's 2019 season ranks 134th.

Ah, gotcha. I'm blind.

The Dallas game was undeniably great and that was one game where he made up a very large portion of the team's offensive yards (77%, which if he had done that for the whole season, would have been #5 in the league). But again, all I was saying is that examples like that are pretty few and far between to this point in his career. I've now gone ahead and added in the rushing yards for other QBs so that I can be more accurate in my statement before. This past season, there were 20 QBs that started at least 14 games. Of those 20, Allen ranks 16th in terms of his share of the team's offensive yards, and he's only that high because he started all 16 games while others did not. If you adjust for the number of starts, Allen falls to 18th out of 20. If you recall, the original reason I brought this up was because another poster said that "Allen has been the entire offense the past two years". The truth is the opposite; he's a smaller proportion of the offense than most QBs and the offense that he's a smaller proportion of has been one of the worst in the league during his 1.5 years of starting games. By either of those metrics, he has not carried as much weight offensively as we should be demanding of a long-term solution. Obviously he still has a year or two to show he can get there, but he simply hasn't played to that level yet. Some of the guys that ranked ahead of him in terms of his proportion of the team's offensive yards are: Kyler Murray (#3 in the league as a rookie) Jared Goff (generally not thought of as carrying the offense, but he was #4) Dak Prescott (same deal as Goff and he came in at #5) Baker Mayfield (who is a good comparison for Allen as they're from the same draft class; granted Baker was more pro-ready) Mitch Trubisky (who obviously we hope Allen does not turn into) Also, just because it cracks me up: Jameis Winston was #1 at 84.2%. #2 was just 79%. Obviously the results for Jameis were extremely mixed last year, but that is an absurd percentage. If we specifically look at QBs that started all 16 games in one of the past two seasons, Allen ranks 27th out of 29. If you include QBs that started at least 15 games (Allen technically started 16 but barely played in one of them, though that may also be true of others), Allen ranks 30th out of 36. And for those interested in the other QBs from his draft class: Baker was ahead of 2019 Allen in 2019. He was lower his rookie year due to only starting 13 games though. Same goes for Darnold, who was higher than 2019 Allen in 2019 despite only starting 13 games, but lower his rookie year while again starting 13. Lamar was below 2019 Allen, though he may have passed him if he had started all 16 games. Rosen was a long ways behind Allen and was still behind Allen even if you tried to adjust for Rosen only starting 13 games.

I didn't want to track down every starting QB's individual numbers, but if one QB ran for enough yards to pass Allen, then the statement of accounting for less of his team's offensive yards than most other starting QBs is true. The yardage numbers are on Pro-Football-Reference. Some math is required.

Just from Pro-Football Reference. Josh Allen's passing + rushing yards last year divided by the team's offensive yards compared to every other team's passing yards / offensive yards (not even including the QB's rushing stats for the other 31 teams). Allen comes in at 16th. I presume that at least one QB would pass him if you add in rushing yards, but it's possible he's smack dab in the middle.

Relative to the rest of the league, he's been below average in terms of his share of the team's total offensive yards each year of his career, and he's done that on one of the worst offenses in the league during that span. He does less than most QBs and the offense he leads does less than almost all other offenses. He certainly didn't have much to work with his rookie year, and even this past season the supporting cast was probably below-average, but that doesn't change the fact that he's rarely the main reason the team wins. Again, I don't mean to come off sounding like I hate him or anything. As I said, I liked him a lot in college and still like him a lot today. But it's simply accurate to say we've mostly relied on the defense to keep the scores down so that our bad offense has a chance at the end of games.

Trevor Lawrence too, no?