Batman1876

I took a look at the drafts between 2000 and 2016 looking at the success rate of drafted QBs I picked those years because the 2017 QBs are too early to tell and 2000 is the oldest draft with a QB still playing. Picks 1 -5 of the 1st round,-21 total taken (Though I will leave Bradford out as his injuries make him hard to categorize. ) Hits-Vick, Palmer, E.Manning, Rivers, A. Smith, Ryan, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Mariota, Winston, Wentz, Goff Misses- Harrington, Carr, Young, Russell, Sanchez,RG3, Bortles Success Rate 13/20 65% Picks 6-10 of the 1st Round -5 taken Hits- Tannahill Misses- Leftwich, Leinert, Gabbert, Locker Success Rate 1/5 20% Picks 11-32 of the 1st Round - 22 Taken (Bridgewater is left out because his injury makes him too hard to categorize) Hit- Flacco, Cutler, Rogers, Big Ben Misses-Pennington, Ramsey, Grossman, Boller, Losman, Campbell, Quinn, Freeman, Tebow, Ponder, Weeden, Manuel, Manziel, Lynch Success Rate 4/19 21% for the later rounds I'll only list success, I will end with the most marginal of successes so that the tipping point between success and failure can be seen. Round 2 Hits- brees,Carr, Garoppolo, Dalton Success Rate 4/18 22% Round 3 Hits- Wilson, Foles, Schaub Success Rate 3/22 13% Round 4 Hits- Gerard, Cousins, Prescott Success Rate 2/22 14% Round 5 Hits- Absolutely no one! Success Rate 0/30 0% Round 6 Hits- Brady, Bulger, Taylor Success Rate 3/37 8% Round 7 Hits- Fitz Success Rate 1/32 3% The Top 5 picks are far and away the most successful, after that the success rate drops from 65% to 20% and slowly declines from there. Besides Brady the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds have all produced marginal successes at best. from 2000 through 2011 there were no 4th round successes. There were no second round success prior to Dalton. You can mediate top 5 risk by looking at bust patterns, 1 year wonders (sanchez, Russell) should be avoided. Running quarterbacks are 50/50 (Vick, Newton Vs Young, RG3). If you are running an expansion team don't draft and start a rookie QB, they'll get killed. The most common thread through busts is that they were not football first people, either focusing on their own brand (RG3, Russell) or they were not prepared for criticism (Harrington, Young) . If Bortles doesn't turn his career around he will be the only QB who was primarily a pocket passer, who had a multi year college career, had his head on straight and did not play for an expansion team to be a bust, since at least 2000.

Its the best QB draft in 15 years, 3 Guys worthy of a top 5 pick. We also happen to have a lot of draft capital where we could realistically get one of those 3. If this isn't the year to take a shot at a top guy it never will be. If we walk out of this off season without someone who has a chance of being a long term starter I'm going to be quite frustrated.

I think we just need to wait until we are in a position to draft a QB who everyone agrees is a sure thing. So I think we should keep drafting late round picks and second string veterans until the year that we happen to be 1st over all and the next Elway or Luck is coming out.

Scouts seem to agree he has a pretty weak arm. He's accurate but if the ball is slow and when the defense presses in the coverage he's doomed.

No he wont. I’m also quite surprised at how many folks are unwilling to take a risk on trading up to draft a guy. This is the best group of prospects in quite some time and now is the time to take a risk. If we draft a top QB now he will be hitting his stride at the exact time Brady retires and the division becomes an open competition again. If you keep waiting for a risk free option you will wait forever and QBs who are worthy of a top 5 pick are not as risky as you think.

I’d rather have Fitz.

He’s a backup quality QB. In a league where EJ and Cassel both have roster spots so should he. But the Bills need a starter, not another backup.

As soon as Sim City goes on sale I’ll get to work. Don’t you mean how out of whack the Eagles GM is.

Rim trying to stick with realistic options.

Don’t think of it as Madden then, think of it as a realistic GM simulator.

So it was more like Rob's game against a tough Titan's team in the playoffs when Johnson put us into position to win were it not for a miracle kick return.

So we are in the off season now (a Patriots Super Bowl doesn't count) and Bills fan are once again trying to figure out who our QB will be. The usual contenders are all there, a starter looking for a new home, a bunch of backups who other teams aren't keen on keeping but some fans are convinced can be the guy, a bunch of early round rookies and the ever popular late round sleeper sure to be the next Brady. Everyone has their choice of what they want to happen and the tough part is we wont know for a while what the Bills will do and we will have to wait even longer to see if it will work out. I wanted to figure out how to solve it so I went to the go to source of information for smart fans... Madden NFL 18. Its on sale this week so I downloaded it, auto skipped to the off season and solved our problem. I started by resetting the rookie class until there was a bunch of guys projected to go in the first round (just like this year) of the draft and thoroughly scouted them all. There was a few guys who were good choices but I really liked one who was slated to go in the top few picks, he would be long gone by the time my picks came around. So I called up the Browns and worked out a trade, The Bills two first round picks and Preston Brown, the Browns love that guy, for the #1 overall pick as well as the Browns 33rd pick and a 4th rounder (125 or so). with that done I decided not to go after Cousins. I drafted my QB first overall and then grabbed a bunch of other guys to fill holes. My pick ended up being a solid 84 overall, the best player in the draft, and was a superstar in terms of skills development. That made him the same overall as cousins but he was a faster developer as well as cheaper and younger. In the end I was able to get the best young signal caller in the league without having to give up my draft to do it. Cousins ended up signing a 4 year 80 million$ contract so that would have been an OK option had the trade not worked out. So there you have it, The bills should trade to the top of the draft, pick the guy their scouts say is best and we will be the AFC East leader for years to come because, cherry on top, Brady retired! I hope this ends all debate on the QB topic.

If we are going to have a former Bills starter who is a t best a passable backup I’d rather bring back Fitz.

At least you can say Glennon’s Name to the tune of “By Mennen.” So he’s got that going for him.

Dear colts, I see you have that tired old no Good Andrew Luck. I know he’s not so good but I’d still trade you these awesome magic beans for him. You love magic bean right. Sinsearly, Bills

River Monster! Don’t be fooled Lorenzen’s feet are faster than EJ’s reads.

Looks to be in playing shape.

Why get either of them when Jarod Lorenzen is available. Plus he’d be a solid cop editor in that royal rumble idea, who could get him up and over?

This is the best class since 2004 (quality) or 1999(quantity) so it’s actually 14-19 years not 15-20 clearly Arians has lost it and his family should fear for his well being.

Getting ahead of this one, complaining that we lost the offseason before the Super Bowl.

His could effectively be replaced by an inanimate carbon rod.

Let him throw himself on the trash heap. At least then he’d end up with the chargers.

We've spent 20 years addressing the QB later via Trade F/A and cheaper draft picks. Low odds of success.

Looking at QB's taken in the top 5 since 2004 there are 17 players. 11 have been or look to be solid starters, Eli, Smith, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Winston, Goff, Mariota, Wentz, Ryan, and Rivers. 5 are busts Jamarcus, RG3, Young, Bortles, and Sanchez. 1 Player I found it hard to place because he's good but injury prone, Sam Bradford. The odds are actually pretty good of getting a quality starter, the key seems to be Stay away from guys who aren't into football (Jamarcus, RG3 and young) do that and you are 6 times more likely to get a quality starter than a bust.

There are no bullet proof QB options in the draft, there almost never are (Elway, Luck are all I can think of). There are however at least 3 solid options that could be a number 1 overall in most years. Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield look as if they will be prospects that could have been competing for #1 overall in any of the last 10 years except 2012. I believe that you need three things in order for a heavy investment in a QB 1) There needs to be a guy worth getting, this year there is. 2) you know you have a hole at QB, we know we do. 3) you need to be able to get into a position to get the guy you want, thanks to trades we have that ability. The last time we had these three things come together was 2004 but instead of going all in to the jump the Steelers and grab Big Ben we took the safe route and took Lee Evans, trading back into the 1st for Losman. It was the worst mistake of the drought era. Sure we got a chance at a QB and a quality WR but we missed a HOFer. Draft pick values indicate it will take both our firsts and a second to move up so we get 1 player rather than three, but if the pick works out then we are still in a better position than we are if we stand pat and get 3 Lee Evans quality players. We have a rare opportunity and I'd hate to say "Lets play it safe and if it does not work out well try next time." because as 2004 showed us you may have to wait 14 years for next time. As for Cousins he has all the negotiating leverage so he will be the highest paid player in the League. It would commit such a large % of the cap to one player that we would be like the Packers a 3-8 team wrapped around a solid QB except that Cousins isn't as good as Rogers.