billsrul120

I really find the MVP stuff interesting and wonder how much larger a contract can get because of that. If you look at the numbers, Allen has had the best single season of any of them (this year) but likely won't have the MVP accolade. If the Ravens are smart, they give Lamar a 5 year deal max. They have one of the worst passing offenses in the league right now and if Lamar loses any speed at all then he is pretty much useless.

He says while conveniently leaving out the fact that the Colts couldn't even get in position for a long field goal attempt starting with about 2 and half minutes left when they needed it the most.

I wanted to see if the numbers lined up with the eye test that the Bills have been improving on both sides of the ball so I made a plot of the 4 game rolling average in points scored and points allowed. As you can see, The Bills are have trended upwards in points scored and downward in points given up over the course of the season. Over the last 4 games, the Bills are averaging 33.75 points scored and just 18.75 points given up. Now it is just the last 4 games, but those numbers put the Bills as the highest scoring team and the 3rd best team in terms of points allowed in the league (Pittsburgh [18.2] and Miami [18.4]). This team appears to be very legit.

Generally I agree with you here but I will say it should be noted that the Dolphins were able to complete a lot of really close plays, several to Gesicki. The success rate they had on plays with Bills players draped all over them or from an amazing catch is something that isn't likely to be a regular occurrence. Gesicki made a couple of catches yesterday that he might make a couple times out of every ten and they just all hit.

See I don't think teams strive to do anything but win the game. Any talk about how yards are gained is secondary to that, including how many yards rb's get vs what the qb accounts for. You are confusing the strategy (to be a winning team) with tactics (a certain split of yards gained). What we saw Sunday is that the Bills are capable of having a good offensive day and winning when the tactic involves Josh Allen carrying the offense almost single handedly.

As with most things some nuance is required. It is easy to see that this isn't a case of cherry picking stats considering he was top 5 in just passing yards alone this week. He produces a ton no matter how you look at it.

Scored more points than them even given the Bills laid down week 17 scoring 6 while the high flying Jags put up 38 in a high stakes battle with the 7-8 colts.

He faced the best defender in one game in which his team actually ended up losing. Sounds like the Pats defensive plan worked against a team whose qb threw 50 touchdowns and 5000 yards. The bolded is all conjecture.

Watkins caught 1 pass for 54 of those 114 on a play where there was a solid 6 seconds from snap to throw. I didn't go find the others but no I don't expect Gilmore to cover any nfl level WR by himself for 6 seconds. Not even if they are a 4 or omg a 5.?

I wouldn't put it past the Pats to play gilmore over watkins hoping he can shut him down completely by himself because they felt the need to play zone against hill and they had players who could execute that on a high level. We also don't know to what extent Gilmore had any help that day vs how much help he may have in any normal game. The defensive gameplan was put together to stop Hill & Kelce. Watkins took advantage but it would be naive to think he would've caught that many balls if he was the focus of the Pats defensive effort.

He has come up big but you can't ignore the role he is in. He is protected from having to face the opponent's best defenders by having Kelce and Hill on the field and Hardman who had a similar season. Easy to look good when you are drafted 4th overall and have the luxury of being the offense's 4th best weapon. That being said this is why we need more depth. The playoffs is when you will see matchups further down the depth chart making a more significant impact on the outcome.

If he completes a pass for a big gain here and they called that he was down due to being in the grasp of defenders we would all be complaining about that. Gotta take the good with the bad with Allen being so hard to take down. Also the intentional grounding penalty doesn't really matter that much here he was going to get sacked for a 10+ yard loss anyway.

Which team does JJ Watt play for? Yeah I want them to lose

Right so you concede that 300 yards doesn't really mean anything to the team winning?

I find it interesting that you are trying to prove your point by saying that Buffalo is at some distinct advantage because every team in the league has thrown for at least 300 yards at least once almost every season. If that is the case then the worst, best and every team in between does it and therefore wouldn't suggest that it makes a team better or for that matter worse. I would like to see Josh light a team up though.

Sacks really haven't gone up on a per game basis and he is throwing more times per game on average this year.

2018 2019 Difference 2020 Total TD 1.64 1.93 18% 2.27 INT 1.09 0.64 -41% 0.38 YPG 180 205 14% 233.47 Completion % 52.8 59.3 12% 66.60 Obviously he may not improve by the same amount in year 3 but he is trending up for sure. but if he did I would take it easily and this clearly shows improvement over last year. One note his fumbling went from 0.73 per game in 2018 to 1 in 2019 so that is still an issue.

rough take here and indicative of the kind of poorly thought out surface analysis stuff that PFF would claim to be above. Hodges has thrown far less balls than Allen has this season so comparing their TD % without sample sizes is a joke. How about Matt Haack? His TD % is 100% this year clearly making him 20 times as effective as hodges and upwards of 25x the QB Allen is. Not to mention the thought that much like with Lamar Jackson, the Steelers don't ask Hodges to pass to get the ball down the field so meaning he is getting a higher percentage of his passes in a place that where the likelyhood of throwing a touchdown is increases (redzone) Analytics would tell you that they go beyond traditional statistics so quoting them in defense of bad takes is just ridiculous.

Patriots are scoring 18.75 per game over their last 4. There offense if clearly trending down.

FYI Allen's per game stats if you remove the Pats game 91.44 QB rating 1.75 TD's per game 0.67 INT's per game 234 yards per game He has objectively played well except for a terrible performance against the ridiculous patriots defense. He definitely needs improvement especially on deep balls but overall I find it hard not to like what he's done so far especially as we keep winning.

Josh Allen first 6 starts average passer rating: 63.42 last 6 starts average passer rating: 77.12 over 20% improvement after coming back from injury Carson Wentz first 8 starts average passer rating: 87.79 (91.07 over first 6) last 8 starts average passer rating: 73.1 (72.92 over 2nd 6) Nearly 17% worse Josh Allen showed significant improvement in his passer rating after the injury. Right on par with pretty good. And that's with passer rating not giving much weight to his running skills.