Shaw66

I agree. Surprised where Alpha is coming from. I'd like 800 yards and 10 yards per catch from my #2. I don't care if the catches are boring or highlight real catches. Zay can easily be in that territory on a team that throws the ball 100 more times.

Did you see his touchdown catch against the Dolphins fir his first Td? Great catch. What numbers do you expect from your #2 for the season? Don't tell me you want 1000 yards.

This just makes very little sense. First, I was comparing Zay's second season in the NFL to Woods' second season. In that season the Bills threw 80 more passes than in 2018. Woods, Freddy (one of those UDFAs you seem to disdain) and Sammy all caught 65 or 66 passes. Zay's production compares very nicely with what Woods did in his second year. And more importantly, all of this stuff you say is just stuff. The NFL is about production, and what I gave you were the stats that say he produced like an average #2, and you say it doesn't matter. It DOES matter. Production is just about all that matters for a receiver. Your whole argument about the Rams is wrong, too. It's what too many fans do too often - they compare their guy to the comparable guy on the BEST team in the league. I wasn't comparing Zay to Woods this year - he's a five or six year pro playing on a great team. What I said is that Zay was an AVERAGE #2 in production, and he was. And that's not bad for a second year pro, on a team with a rookie QB and that couldn't pass protect and didn't pass much.

He was 59th in the league in receptions this year. Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was in the low 40s. That means he was average for a #2 wideout. He was 61st in yards this season. Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was around 50. That means he was average for a 32 wideout. That's on a team that was 28th in the league in attempts. His season was quite similar to Robert Woods' second season. He catches about the same number of passes for about the same number of yards with about the same ratio of catches to targets. Maybe all the things you say about him are true. Somehow in his second season he's an average NFL #2 wideout.

It feels strange arguing the other side, because I think Allen is going to be a star. A true star. If Daboll does his job, Allen will be next season's Mahomes. By 2020 we'll be celebrating that we traded Mahomes for White and Allen. But ... 10+ yard per attempt isn't something to brag about. McDermott admitted a week or two ago that they've been trying to get him to take the checkdown more oftern. By the time draft night came, I was Mayfield-Darnold-Rosen-Allen. When the Bills traded up in the first I said to myself "Good, take Rosen. NO, WAIT. TAKE ALLEN. TAKE ALLEN!!!" I changed my mind because I didn't a wimpy little guy - I wanted the body and the arm. By the end of preseason I wanted him starting and nearly puked when I heard it was Nate. FortuNATEly, that didn't last long. I'm genuinely excited every game, just to see him play. I just look at the stats and think he's a long way from where he needs to be. But I also think he's on a rocketship that's going to get him there faster than the pundits might think. I think he's going to be studying film all off-season, I think he'll get significantly better protection and a better running game next season, and I think he's going to have a whole summer to get used to the receivers he's going to be playing with. (I think they will be Zay and Foster and two or three guys who aren't yet on the roster.) I also think Edmunds will be consistently better than we saw most of this season. He won't be great, not yet, but he'll be a problem for opponents. I think the defense will improve around him. I think this team surprises a lot of people and goes 10-6 OR BETTER. I'm just saying that Allen wasn't a quality starter this past season.

Actually, I'm not sure I care if they ever get a "true" #1. I agree with what you said, and not just because Daboll is the OC. I think if you look around league, real success in the league is rarely determined by having a "true" #1 wide receiver. They're nice to have, but not essential. Seattle doesn't have a "true" #1. Arizona did and never won. Atlanta does and never won. Cincinatti. Detroit. Houston. Moss only won with Belichick (or did the Giants beat them that year?).. I don't think that lesson is lost on McBeane. They're building a team, not a collection of talented players. Add to that the fact that "true" #1 wide receivers sometimes (and more than most other positions) are prima donnas. Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown are the latest examples. That's also a no no in McBeane land. McBeane are going to keep getting the best players that fit what they're doing. If a "true" #1 comes along with the character, determination and competitiveness that they're looking for, they'll grab him. A HInes Ward (not a #1), an Andre Reed (not really a true #1), a Larry Fitzgerald. But until that guy comes along, Allen will be throwing to guys many people here won't like. Look at Minnesota. Look at the Rams. Look at the Chiefs. One of the dumbest comments we on TV these days is "So-and-so has completed passes to NINE different receivers today." They say it like it's a big deal and it shows how So-and-so sees the field, etc. It's baloney. Offenses are DESIGNED to spread the ball around. They take advantage of mismatches all over the field, and they don't throw a lot to the #1 because the #1 gets doubled a lot. "True" #1 wideouts are overrated in terms of building a winner. Love to have one, no doubt, but they just aren't that important. Stud left tackle is more important. A stud GUARD may be more important. A stud center definitely is. And three or four guys on the defense are more important.

I won't dismiss the stats. For years I've been saying that although people may not think it's perfect, the passer rating is a good measure of how well a QB is doing. Allen's passer rating is horrible. He isn't the only QB in the league with a weak receiving corps, but he and Rosen are the only starters in the league with a passer rating below 70. That number is horrible. Take one stat in isolation: Interceptions. Allen's interception perception is second highest in the league, behind only our man Ryan Fitz. That stat has very little to do with anything other than bad decision making. It doesn't matter whether you're thowing to Kelvin Benjamin or Julio Jones if the safetytis undercutting the route. Allen had only two games with a passer rating over 90. He had 6 below 70. EJ Manuel's CAREER passer rating is 77. Allen is spectacular. At the same time, he has a long way to go.

One thing that ought to temper our enthusiasm is that Allen's stats are horrible. I was just looking at Football Outsiders, and his DVOA rank is 33. He LOOKED like a stud against the Dolphins, but it was the Dolphins and a meaningless game, a game in which the Bills were amped up because of Kyle. If he can't look good in that game, when can he? We need more of those 3 TD passing, 2 TD rushing games!

This is great! Thanks. I'm not a Newton fan. I don't think he is a quality decision maker, and for whatever reason his throwing is inaccurate. I've thought for a couple of months that Allen is going to blow right by Newton. In five years they won't be discussed in the same sentence. My, aren't we getting ahead of ourselves?!

Login=c Thanks. Another greater poster heard from. I actually just said the fill-in-the-blanks thing in my response to Buddo. That doesn't mean just any guy off the street; it means the best you can get at every position. But the best isn't necessarily the best athlete; he's the best role player for the position. Finding, drafting and keeping the studs is the hardest part; the role players should be easier. That's why I said the pressure is on McBeane. They don't have to find a GREAT tight end; they just need one who can catch the throw Allen made at the end of the first Dolphins game. If you're like me, it was hard for you to write "the best player on the field" and "transcendent." I haven't said that, because I'm afraid I'm going to jinx him. But it's true. That's why I got on the band wagon so early. When he made that touchdown throw in his first preseason game, a back shoulder dart to the goal line between two defenders, it SHOCKED me. The next preseason game he made another, then another. By the time he took over from Peterman and I saw a game or two more, I was sold. The guy doesn't have great talent; he has exceptional talent. And, as I've been saying, he has intense desire to drive himself and be driven by others to be the very best possible. It's really exciting. Maybe with a couple seasons under his belt, the move to RT won't be so hard now. Or the move to LG. In the grand scheme, it doesn't matter. He's a reasonably talented offensive lineman who still will get better. Put him where he fits best and then deal with what's left. Also, I don't think they need three new pieces. I think they need two. The good players on the line make the mediocre players play better, because they operate as a team. That's why losing Richie and Eric was such a blow. You lose your two best, and your two worst are floundering. So I think all they need is two. I won't complain about three, but I don't like big overhauls. There should be three guys from 2018 who are good enough and will bring continuity to the 2019 line. But that's just me ruminating - I don't really know.

Thanks. This is a nice analysis of how I think the will handle the off-season. They want to grow young players, so they're going to be careful signing older free agents. The kind of guy I'd expect to see them spend on is a guy drafted in the first or second round coming off his rookie deal, a guy who underperformed his draft position. A guy McBeane scouted and wanted in Carolina, a guy they know is an athlete and who buys into the process. People here will complain that they're signing busts, but that's not what they'll think they're doing. They're looking for guys whose pro coaches didn't challenge them the right way to get them to perform.

Buddo - I always look forward to your comments. Thanks. A couple of things in response to what you said. First, Edmunds. You really got me to focus on how young he is with the comment that next season he STILL may be the youngest guy on the team. And his body certainly isn't done filling it. Two years from now he easily could have added 15 pounds of muscle AND two years' playing experience. He could be a beast. The end-of-season press conferences impressed on me again how much McDermott is about a system. This is a highly structured organization designed to continue to develop players so that they and the team get better and better. McDermott sells these guys a process that has one objective - continuous winning, including winning championships. He sells players on the notion that if they work and study and continuously improve, the TEAM someday will win. It's interesting to me because implicit in what they do is that some of the players he's getting to buy into that process won't be with the team when the championships are won, but McDermott still sells those guys on the notion that they're continuing improvement builds the platform from which some other players will in turn improve. He's telling them that the ultimate success of the team depends on what these guys do, even if they aren't the ones who will win the championships. For example, if the Bills win a Super Bowl with McDermott in three years, Kyle will know he was part of it. So will McKenzie, whether he's with the team or not. So will Dawkins. It's fascinating to watch. McBeane choose players who are willing to commit to that process and the intense environment that goes with it. They chose Allen and Edmunds because they are smart, hungry competitors willing to commit. Desperately willing to commit. McBeane wouldn't have drafted them if they didn't have that willingness. After the draft, they said Allen was an intense competitor. You heard it from Allen yesterday - he HATES to lose. During the draft process, you could see signs that Rosen may not be committed to the same extent, and that's why Allen was the pick. Edmunds apparently is the same way. You said there will always be some "hero ball" from Allen. You may be right, but I think you aren't. I think the process is designed to have the QB do the right thing on every play, and I think that we've already heard from Allen that that's what he's trying to learn. They chose him because he's committed to doing everything the right way. I hate to say it, but Brady is the model. There's no hero ball in him because he doesn't have the raw talent to be the hero, but that's not the point. The point is that Brady seems to do the right thing on every play, finding the right receiver, beating the blitz, throwing the ball away, even taking the sack, almost always while protecting himself from injury. That's the model, I think, that McDermott has Allen pursuing. I think the vision for him is a guy with the physical abilities of a Rodgers (probably better) and the mental discipline of a Brady. That's what they're after. And Allen is buying it and working to be that guy. When he talked about his long touchdown run against the Dolphins, he was asked what he saw. He sort of said he didn't see anything; he just started running, guys made some blocks and he got to the end zone. What I found interesting about it was that all Allen did was make a series of good decisions: he looked downfield, didn't like what he saw, got on the move to avoid the rush, kept looking downfield, saw that running was the best opportunity, kept going so long as he had open field and no big hits coming. It was all good decision making by a superior athlete, and we could see the beauty of the combination of those two things. I think his interception on Sunday was less hero ball than it was a misjudgment by him about whether he could get the ball in there. He knows he's not supposed to take risks with the ball, he just misjudged the risk. That is, he didn't think he was going to show everyone he's Superman - he thought it was a play he could make, and he learned that it's one he can't make. As I said in the OP, he has to make some of those mistakes to refine his judgment. I think there's a LOT of pressure on McBeane now. If you have a young stud QB and a young stud MLB, and it looks like that could be what's happened, you probably have 50% or more of the talent you need to be good. You can get by with a lot of role players at the other positions if you have top ten talent at those two positions. (Obviously, it's too early to say these guys are top 10, but they certainly could be on that trajectory. People laughed at me in the summer when I said the Bills could have the offensive rookie of the year and the defensive rookie of the year. They didn't, of course, but it's not so far-fetched to think that someday those two will be the offensive and defensive players of the year. I think if you could get Belichick and others around the league to talk frankly about it, they'd tell those are two studs.) So McBeane have to go get the role players. From my perspective, I'd love to see them get a really good left tackle and move Dawkins to the right. Get at least one good free agent interior lineman. Then go to work. Thanks again for posting.

Really well said, Stu.

McD said in his presser that for the last game Edminds finally let go, stopped thinking so much and just played. He said it was pretty impressive.

That's what your think. I get it. I just don't think that's what McDermott thinks. Listen to the press conferences today. They're about good athletes learning to pursue perfection. They are studying. learning, teaching each other. Part of the process will be repeatedly bringing in new players to find better talent to learn the same things. So, yes, ultimately McD is looking for Bruce, not Kyle, but only a Bruce who wil lwith the discipliine of a Kyle. McDermott sounded pretty excited today when the conversation turned to Allen and Edmunds. He doesn't want to say it, but it seemed like what he was thinking was he has his Bruce at QB and he has his Bruce at MLB. Yeah, I wrote that before I saw the video of his speech to the team. He had first hand experience of Kyle. It sounds like Kyle was the epitome of what McD wants in a football player.

I congratulate Burleson. He states his point of view nicely, and he's entitled to his view of the situation. I don't know any of these situations nearly well enough, but people have to at least ask questions when black coaches are hired and fired in a year. There's no way it's fair to expect a guy to turn things around in one year. On the other hand, it may have been completely clear inside the clubhouse that he was in over his head. It happens. If he's over his head, there's a good chance he's drowning. Under those circumstances sometimes you just have cut him loose and try to save the ship.

I don't have great recollections of Freddy. I had little kids and wasn't watching the Bills as much as I do now. Still, I'd guess you're right. Kyle wasn't the best tackle in the sense that he could dominate other teams. But he did EVERYTHING at a really high level. He played, without the same size and length, like JJ Watt plays, all out determination mixed with great athletic ability, every play. Kyle couldn't dominate like Watt, but that was his style. Smerlas could dominate.

Nicely done. Very nice.

Why do we love Kyle Williams? · We loved that backflip in college · We loved when this LSU Tiger, looking more like a Teddy Bear, came to Buffalo · We loved how the news from training camp day after day was Williams made another play · We loved that he started as a rookie · We loved that he was a fifth round pick · We loved that he was tough and still a sportsman · We loved how after a couple of years he knew he was supposed to be a leader, but he didn’t know how · We loved how he started speaking up and doing more, sort of awkwardly at first, doing it because he knew HE had to do it · We loved how he embraced our new owners and our new GM and our new coach · We loved how eventually it was all there, the play, the leadership, the stability in tough times, the self-assured modesty, the graciousness · We loved the leadership · We loved watching him get to the playoffs · We loved the message – that this is what can happen if you commit completely to becoming everything you can be · We loved how, through all of that, he was still a kid playing a game · We love him like family.

I tend to agree with you, but that's not McD's process. If you heard his speech to the team before he introduced Kyle who was announcing his retirement? McDermott is selling commitment to self, team, family and community. The way to succeed, in his model, is to prove yourself in all four categories, all the time. Listen to Allen's press conference today. He's talking about Kyle, about Buffalo, about what this city stands for, all of it. That's the package that McD wants every player to embrace.

Yes, you're correct. I was just picking up on the idea of passing the torch. It was BOTH a passing of the torch from the ultimate in work ethic to the younger generation who must pick it up AND a passing of the torch from the Wilsons to the Pegulas. McDermott wants pride in the community, the history of the organization, the colors. He's selling all of that to his players. I'm sure he wants his players to know about the Wilsons and AFL and all of that. So the last guy from that entire era, the last guy connected in some way to the beginning of the franchise, is now retiring.

I agree, sort of. I just watched some of the press conferences about Kyle. It's pretty emotional. Kyle said he is the last person left in the organization who had a direct relationship with Marv Levy and with the Wilson family. So he signifies the total transition to new ownership, GM and coach. McDermott is telling his players that they got to watch a guy do it exactly as it needs to be done to succeed. And he's telling them that now they must do it. It doesn't mean the other vets will go, but it means that the young guys now must be the guys who carry the team.

I'd guess Clay will go, but I would not be surprised to see all of Alexander, Murphy and McCoy stay, just like the Bills kept Kyle. I say that not so much because I think they ought to stay but because of how I perceive how McDermott operates. McDermott's been clear that he wants leaders in the locker room. He got Murphy because he has the heart and commitment that McDermott wants in all his players. I think that's why he kept Williams and Alexander, and I think that's why he likes McCoy. Ultimately, McDermott wants homegrown leaders, but it's going to take him a few years to grow them. In the meantime, he needs the next best thing, which is guys who started elsewhere, who have adversity in their careers and who have fought through it to be the best players they can be. I think, for example, that McDermott wants McCoy because McCoy will play his heart out next season because, well, that's what McCoy does. McDermott wants his youngsters to see, up close and personal, a star at the end of his career, a guy who's already made his money, a guy who could coast through 2019 just to collect one more big check, but who nevertheless is a guy who is doing everything possible to win. McDermott wants that in his locker room. McDermott built a special relationship with Kyle shortly after McDermott arrived in Buffalo. He knew, from reputation and from he saw in his first days in Buffalo, that Kyle was one of those guys. Now he's losing Kyle and he has three left. Their value to the team, in McDermott's view, goes far beyond what they do on the field.

See, I think McDermott and Beane see it differently. I think, but I don't know, that McBeane are all about young players who fit what they want to do. I don't think they have any interest in talented old vets like Green. They kept Alexander and Williams (and McCoy) because they are EXACTLY the kind of team players they want as leaders. They don't want to take a chance on some vet in the hope that he'll become such a leader. They want to grow their own leaders. In the environment that they're creating, they MIGHT spend big dollars on a guy who's coming off his first contract, but they'll be cautious about such guys. If the guy isn't re-signing with his original team, it means he hasn't emerged as a leader on the team. McBeane don't want good players who aren't leaders. So that leads me to believe that the Bills have literally more cap room than they know what to do with. They don't need an extra $6 million in cap room, because they aren't going to be signing a lot of guys for more than $5 million a year. And that, in turn, leads me to believe that if they think McCoy has gas in the tank, and if they think he's a leader (I think he is), they'll keep him.

McDermott doesn't want his team losing discipline, but you know he liked that moment, too. I'm sure Mills was as much a part of the post-game locker room celebration as any other Bill, maybe more so, and McDermott desperately wants that togetherness. It was a memorable game for many reasons, with a lot of important stuff happening even though the game was meaningless in the standings.