Shaw66

I have this discussion all the time. The passer rating is by far the best single data point to evaluate quarterbacks. ALL the good quarterbacks have high passer ratings, and practically no QB with a high passer rating is not a good QB. Tyrod Taylor ran just as well as Josh and had a high QBR. Doesn't matter. Russell Wilson runs well AND he has a high passer rating. That makes all the difference. I don't care how well Josh Allen runs. If he doesn't get his passer rating up by 30 points, he is NOT going to be the guy we hope. I think he will be improved, but for a better reason than the change in receivers. He will improve because of coaching and because of the experience he gained last season. In particular, his completion percentage, and thus his passer rating, will go up in 2019 because he will throw more short passes, including check downs. That's what his coaches want, and he's a coachable guy. Better receivers will help, but it's Josh's decision making that will make the real difference.

Of course, this data is cherry picked. Wentz had a completion percentage of 62.4; Allen was 52.8. That's a very important difference. The result is that their passer ratings were very different: 79.3 vs. 67.9. A passer rating in the high 70s is pretty good; many good rookies finish there, and some not so good (EJ Manuel, for example). A rookie passer rating in the high 60s is not good. Personally, I think Josh will have a completion percentage over 60% this season, because the Bills will stress to him the importance of throwing shorter passes to increase his completion percentage. But what I think and what actually happens often are two dramatically different things. Josh needs to be better to be effective.

You just spewing out stuff that has nothing to do with what I'm talking about?

You're talking about the Hallman Fame you'd like to see. Reggie Jackson was asked after he retired whether he should be in the Hall of Fame. He said, "the way it is, sure. The way it should be, no." The way the football Hall of Fame is, Gore is in. Franco Harris. Marcus Allen - one big year. How about Larry Fitzgerald? Led the league in receptions twice, yards never. Never won anything. You keeping him out, too? Second all time receiving yards.

Man, they could sell tickets to Robert Kraft's trial! Tiger Woods would buy a box for himself and his girls. What a zoo that would be!

Absent drug use, is there any reason to keep the third all-time home run hitter out of the HOF. How about the third all-time in passing yards? How about the third all-time in NBA scoring? Or assists? Accomplishments like that once in a generation and they ALWAYS get you in the Hall of Fame. Franco Harris ever had great seasons - he accumulated yards by playing a long time. Franco's in the Hall. Gore is automatic.

The guy is right.

I actually have a lot of confidence in these guys now. They'll win games, if not this season, definitely next. They are absolutely determined and focused on what they are doing. Their level of determination is through the roof. They're climbing Mount Everest, and nothing is going to stop them. One thing I found very interesting that gives us a sense of how dedicated they are. You know McDermott was a wrestler. He loves wrestling. I guess Penn State has a great wrestling program, and he took a day off to watch Penn State practice to try to figure out how they achieve and maintain excellence. The guy is absolutely driven to succeed. I think the winning starts this season. It's clear from the McD and Beane interviews that they were pissed off about the offense last season and that they are NOT going to let that happen again. Every guy on the offense, including the new comers, have already gotten that message.

And he's probably going to wish he were catching passes from Josh Allen. Oakland seems like a train wreck to me.

That's ridiculous. Gore is already the 4th leading rusher all time, and with a decent season he will pass Barry Sanders. The top 16 all time are in the Hall except Adrian Peterson and Edgerrin James. Gore has had 11 seasons over 1000 yards and two more where he missed by less than 50. He also had 5 seasons over 40 receptions. McCoy needs 1500 yards to be in the top 15 and 2000 yards to pass Jim Brown and be in the top 10. Easily doable. Three seasons. These guys are two of the great backs in the history of the league.

The thing about Fitzpatrick is that the 48 is the only reason he has had su cess in the league. Slow guys with mediocre arms don't survive well in the NFL. Fitz thinks his way to the success he has had.

Yeah. He's in control now. It's like it took him two years to be comfortable as head coach. He's in stride now.

That's the best McD interview I've seen. In control, comfortable, mature. He's a guy who KNOWS that he is doing it right. Very interesting.

I agree, if for no reason other to force the oline and QB to be worried about the possibility. You get killed if the offense knows you're bringing the same 4 every play, especially against the better qbs. Brady has to be worried about getting hit if you're going to have a chance against him. I don't think you get a game changing anything at 9. Everyone wants a game changer, and it's rare to have more than a couple in a draft, other than qbs.

I don't know what they would do in the Donald-Atkins situation, but I'd guess that if they're on the clock and a QB is their BPA, they don't take Oliver. They trade out of 9, maybe throw in a sixth, and get a pick later in the first plus a second. There's more value in that than in any non-qb you're likely to get at 9. Your future is not determined by non-qb stars. Jerry Rice might be the exception. Getting three guys like Tre White, Kiko Alonso and Phillips is better than Oliver and one other. If a legit top 10 rated qb is on the board at 9, I expect the Bills to trade down.

Air go? How'd you do on the Wonderlic?

This is actually wrong. A lot of people can score in the 40s on the Wonderlic if they have enough time. The questions aren't very hard. It isn't the SATs. The whole point of the Wonderlic is to see if you can think accurately and quickly under pressure. Most people don't finish the test within the time limit.

This is an interesting point. I don't think it's all on Frazier. I think McD likes to come with just four. I tend to agree with you. We will see if the philosophy changes. I have to think that with Edmunds speed they'd be looking for opportunities to get him free runs at the qb, let alone coming from other positions, as well.

Agreed. People just need to understand that if they go DL at 9 it's because they did align. If the BPA is an OT, some people will be surprised, but Beane's view will be that he will still find DL help later.

Again, listen to his interview. He sounds completely willing to get his DL/edge guy in the third round, if that's how it falls. He is not going away from his BPA in the early rounds. He is really clear about this. He and McD have a plan, and their discipline is st I ck with the plan. He said last year, in discussing how the draft went, that he tells his staff to pull him back if he gets excited about someone and starts to deviate from the plan. They are really rigorous about it. I'm not saying they won't go DL at 9. Not saying they won't trade up and go DL with a higher pick. What I'm saying is that if they do go DL in round 1, it will because the guy they take is the highest rated on theit board, not because they have a need.

Not necessation in the first round. Listen to the Beane interview. He said, as he always does, that they will go BPA without regard to position. He was pretty clear that there is depth in the draft at DL, which means you can wait to get qood quality at DL. He also essentially said the DL depth in the draft meant they didn't have to be aggressive in free agency. So it's clear they are looking for DL help in the draft. He said what he had made clear before. He is a pure BPA guy in the early rounds, and he moves toward need in the later rounds.

Man, I like the Bills ownership, GM and coach. Every time I hear a Beane interview, I learn something and my respect for him grows. I love when he says there's a plan, they're following the plan and he and the Pegs and McD all are on board. He's pretty frank about what he is doing, without naming names. His 2019 roster is going to be better than 2018, and his 2020 roster is going to be better than 2019. His players are on notice - the Bills want to keep getting better at every position. If you want to play, get better, because someone else is going to be behind ready to take your spot. Lovin it.

Right. Bills will have at least a few RBs in camp and the old guys will be watching a lot. If a youngster emerges, he could quickly become the backup if one of old guys has lost it. Plus, the plan might turn out to be that Gore is the third down back. In that case, a shifty rookie might spell Shady. In that case it would look like running back by committee. Someone said he'd rather give up talent a year to early than a year too late. I generally agree. But ask Drew Brees about Darren Sproles. I think when you're talking HOF talent like Gore and Shady, or a guy like Sproles, in each case a guy who has shown he can do things practically no one else can do, that rule doesn't apply. You'd rather carry an over the hill an extra year than watch him put up 1000 yards for someone else. Imagine how the Dolphins will feel if Gore has 1000 rushing and receiving. Tomlinson had a decent year with the Jets. They kept him for the next season, when he ran out of gas. I don't fault them for that.

I think that if Shady runs well this year, he will want to keep playing for the Bills, because he likes the coach, the attitude, the quarterback and the chances to win a championship. I think the age thing is overblown. These guys stay in great shape, and they aren't asked to have 30 plus touches every week like in the old days. Barry Sanders retired at 31 and had a lot left in the tank. Marcus Allen started double digit games every season from age 33 to 36. Adrian Peterson. Frank Gore. Walter Payton rushed for 1300 yards at age 32. Do I think the Bills need young blood at running back? Sure. But I'm firmly in the running backs are a dime a dozen camp. Bell is great, but I wouldn't pay big bucks for him. Keep filling the spot with young talent from the draft and free agency, and eventually you will get lucky. When the right guy appears in the first round, take him. When a Philadelphia calls and offers you a HOF back for a skinny linebacker, do it. Frankly, when you don't have your QB, the best running back won't save you. When you do have your QB, the best running back is a luxury and not essential.

Shady only dances when there isn't a hole. He danced a lot lastnyear because there were no holes. Ivory's production was down for the same reason. Shady doesn't dance when he has any room to run. He hits the hole and goes. I agree he's the same back he has been. And that's why McD kept defending him at the end of the season when reporters asked if Shady was done. If the oline produces thisnyear, Shady will be fine and he will sign an extension.