Shaw66

I'm one who agrees with the OP that Zay could be gone, but I think it's just a reasonable possibility. If it happens it won't mean Zay is bad, just that some others are better. What has he done? As someone else pointed out, he has played all three wideout positions and had decent success. Not great but decent. So he knows and can perform in the system the Bills run. Brown and Beasley, being vets, should be able to get up that learning curve. Williams and the rookies start pretty far behind Zay. Foster is behind him too. So although I think Zay's upside is more limited than some of those others, he is more likely to perform adequately while the team figures out over the entire season whether any of the others can deliver on game day. I share Hap's view in that regard. If Zay isn't on the roster to start the season it will be because others have better upside, Foster or someone else emerged as the number 3, AND as the number 4 Zay's experience and versatility just isn't that important. If Zay is not on the roster for those reasons, that's a good thing for the Bills, because that will mean two guys, like Williams and Sills, both have demonstrated better upside than Zay, plus Foster progressing. From my point of view, Zay on the team isn't a bad outcome, Zay not on the team is better.

Nice, but you left out Duke Williams. And Foster's emergence as a Hall of Famer. Oh, and Allen's accuracy. Seriously, no one should expect that people read all the posts before posting their own thoughts. A thread is a conversation; when you're talking with a group of people and someone joins late, that person often will repeat things people said earlier, before he arrived. No one tells him to stop because we already talked about that. It is, as you say, just people jumping in and out of a conversation.

Really good point. McBeane love that flexibility. And it isn't theoretical - he has actually played all over. With Duke and Sills, it's just guys who MIGHT be able do what Zay has done.

As I just wrote to Hapless, yes, I think that is the issue. No, I'm not saying that he won't improve. My view is that although he may improve, he's not going to improve so much that he's a significant contributor to the team. How do I know that? I don't, it's just my opinion. He just hasn't shown me much to get excited about. He'll be a nice receiver, have a 6 or 8 year career, maybe a little longer, but he isn't going to strike fear in the hearts of anyone. Comparisons to Moulds just don't make much sense to to me. He was a a top talent coming out of college, he was a serious kickoff return threat in his first couple of years. His talent was obvious, as well as his size. Jones isn't anything like that. Lots of people would have been surprised if Moulds didn't develop into a valuable player, because his special qualities were on display his first two years. Very few people will be surprised if Zay doesn't succeed. My cousin told me early last season that Zay didn't even deserve to be in the league. I disagreed with him, but nobody was saying that about Moulds in his second season.

Responding to this and your earlier post. I'm not totally entrenched at all. I'm not saying Zay isn't going to make the team. I'm saying I can see the scenario, actually multiple scenarios under which he doesn't make the team. And I agree with you, there are multiple scenarios where he does make the time and is a significant contributor. You're correct about Foster taking the next step, and you're right about Beasley and Brown both being less than certain to be the "answer" or a significant part of the answer. I don't know what's going to happen. After I wrote my last post, I went out for a while. While I was driving I was thinking about it, and I think where you and I really differ is our view of Jones. You said a few posts back (maybe yesterday) that the Bills may be surprised to find that Zay is the next Robert Woods if they let him go (trade or cut). That's where we disagree. I don't see him ever becoming Robert Woods. I don't see him as having shown in his first two years any of the potential Woods showed in his first two years, so I don't see how he's ever going to be that kind of complete #2. My argument in all of this is based on that view of Zay. If McDermott sees Zay as I do, I think Zay has a real fight on his hands, because it means he can't add much to the team this year or in the future. If McD sees the potential you see, then Zay's essentially a lock to make the team. I'd never let him go after two years if I thought he was on the path to becoming Woods.

This is good analysis, although I think that several pages back you said Brown, Beasley and Roberts ARE shoo-ins. Just pointing it out, not arguing about that. I don't think anyone's guaranteed a slot, but I will be surprised if any of those three don't make it. You're right about Foster and Jones last season. As we've said, and I think you agree if Foster makes the next step, he can take the second wideout spot from Zay, leaving Zay #4. I'm NOT saying Foster will do that, only that he could. I think Zay's in a real fight for the #3 spot, because the coaches certainly would prefer Foster's speed in the lineup, if he can do the other things he needs to do. And once Zay falls to 4, he's actually 5 because of Roberts, and the 5th receiver on almost any team just isn't all that important.

I don't hate him. I have been a Zay defender since I came to this board. What I'm saying is that he could be a victim of the process that McBeane are running. They want competition at all positions, and 2019 is the first year where they have assembled enough players to create competition. And they are building with a serious eye to the future; that is, personnel decisions are not made strictly on what makes the team better for 2019. 2020 and 2021 are always on their radar. I don't think Zay's done a lot to stand out. All he's done is be the best of a pretty bad collection of receivers. Nobody at any time in 2018 was saying, "Zay's a keeper." Compare him to Milano, for example. Milano makes things happen. Nobody said that about Zay last season. Zay's problem isn't so much whether he's good enough to make the team in 2019. He clearly is. His problem is that he isn't clearly good enough, not yet, to make the team in 2020. How do I know? Because McBeane will continue to bring in competition at all positions, including wide receiver. And his problem is whether this year he can make the top 3 receivers in terms of snaps. If he isn't in the top 3, he isn't very valuable to the team. Think about it: If Brown, Beasley and Foster are top three (IF - I don't know if Foster can make it), then Zay becomes something like the 45th most important guy on a 53-man roster. Why? Well, Roberts is more important, because of his kick returning. So that means in importance to the team, Zay is at best the 5th most important receiver on the roster. There are 7 or 8 offensive linemen ahead of him, 6 to 8 defensive linemen ahead of him, 4 or 5 linebackers, 6 DBs, a punter, a place kicker, a long snapper, 4 running backs, a couple of special teamers, 3 tight ends. Your fifth receiver just isn't a very important guy, and there isn't much difference between your fifth and your sixth. Now think about McBeane. If Foster becomes their number three, then Zay just isn't a key man on the team. They're mantra is continuous improvement, so they're looking at Zay and his competition in terms of their potential to improve and become an impact player. That's when Zay is in trouble, because he just hasn't such much to make anyone think that they HAVE to have him. It's all about who steps up, and who has the potential to step up. As much as I like him and root for him, I'm not sure Zay does very well in that competition.

I actually think there is some of that. That comment makes him sound like an alcoholic - I'm never recovered and I'm fine if I stay on course. And I don't think it was just the violent episode. He admits that he kind of quit at the NFL level, and he didn't really know what it would take when he got to Canada. So I think he's saying that he'll be fine so long as he stays committed. The reason I think it isn't much of an issue is because he understands now what it takes, and everyone in Canada says he was an unbelievable teammate - really tough competitor, completely dedicated to getting better and winning. The reason I think it isn't foolish to think he can have an impact is because he has the talent to be thought of as a first or second round pick AND he isn't a rookie coming in with that talent. He's a guy who's played committed, serious professional football for two years at a very high level. Yes, it was Canada, but it was serious football and his talent showed. He learned routes, he learned checks, he learned defenses. He know HOW to do it. He has more to learn, but he isn't a rookie.

That's an interesting point. Brown looked like a star as a rookie, but never really emerged. If he's the Bills #1, that might work, but he isn't a #1 who regularly demands a double. If Foster emerges as you hope, you're correct, he could be special. Brown #2 to Foster's #1 is awesome, with Beasley in the slot. Foster really looked like some light bulb lit in the second half of the season. Maybe it was just a little hot streak, but it seemed like every game he did something special. Training camp will be fun. All of what you say - Allen, Oliver, Edmunds, oline, receivers, Singletary. Knox and Sills. A lot of interesting stories. You can start to see the competition philosophy at work. The question around the lineup is who's going to win, not is there anyone who's good enough. Receivers should be good enough, oline good enough, dline good enough. Not what you want as a finished product, but no glaring holes. Just a bunch of guys fighting to get the snaps.

Let me say that I haven't been here for several hours, and although it's rambled a bit, this thread is a really good discussion by a bunch of people who know something about football and the Bills. People who are complaining about a long thread about Zay Jones are missing the point. This stuff is interesting. As for 5 or 6, I don't know, because I don't study the game in that kind of detail. I don't know what's involved in deciding on 5 or 6, what other positions essentially get the benefit of that extra body. I've always assumed it was 6. I've heard 5. I suppose with the running back logjam, the receiver roster could be shaved. I always assume the kick returner is one of the five or six (although occasionally you'll have a DB returner). I agree with Hap - Beasley, Brown and Roberts are the only locks to make the receiver squad. Something I said when Roberts was acquired was that McKenzie would be gone, and I still think so. McKenzie may have some upside; I haven't seen it, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have it. McKenzie's best moments last season were on jet sweeps and similar plays designed to get him the ball in space. As I understand it, Roberts has already done some of that for the Jets, and if he as any aptitude at all on those plays, aptitude in the sense that he has the ability to get meaningful yardage, then McKenzie will lose the battle for that spot. Roberts will be the kick returner and the last receiver, in terms of playing time. As he learns route running, if he does, maybe he moves up to more snaps. But just as the jet sweep guy, and the jet sweep decoy, the reverse guy and the reverse decoy, Roberts should be more effective than McKenzie, maybe a lot more, just because his kick return skills translate to those specialized plays. In my mind, as others have said, that means Zay is fighting to be the fourth or fifth or sixth guy to make it. In terms of playing time, he could be the third receiver, behind Brown and Beasley. Assuming he continues to show progress, Foster seems clearly to be the fourth guy to make the team - that is, Foster is the fourth after Brown, Beasley and Roberts. The Bills need his speed, and late last season he began to look like a guy who can be dangerous in the mid-range as well as deep. That kind of progress would actually push Brown for playing time, or more likely Zay. When you go three wide, in your ideal lineup, would you rather go Brown, Beasley, Foster or Brown, Beasley, Jones? If Foster can be a serious receiver in the whole route tree, I'm playing Foster ahead of Zay, just for the deep potential Foster brings, and his potential on slants and skinny posts. Foster and Brown on the field together forces the defense to cover the whole field, sideline to sideline. Zay doesn't do that. So I think Zay is at serious risk of losing the 3 spot. So that makes Foster the fourth man into a group of five or six to make the receiver squad. Who's left? Zay, Williams, Sills, Ray-Ray, McKenzie. I think McKenzie just doesn't fit, with Roberts here. Ray-Ray, I don't know. Never excited me. If I'm right, its Zay, Williams and Sills fighting for one or two spots. If I'm wrong about either McKenzie or Ray-Ray, it's because they've developed into something that's a serious threat, and it's probably something that Zay doesn't offer. And I think that's Zay's problem with Williams and Sills too. Zay just looks like a decent journeyman NFL receiver and hasn't shown much to cause anyone to expect more of him. Williams and Sills, and possibly Ray-Ray and McKenzie, all may look less well-rounded now, but all have better upside - Williams and Sills could be serious red zone targets, and Ray-Ray and McK could be serious threats with the ball in the open field, receiver like the little guys Belichick has played for years. In other words, I can project any of the four being someone the defense worries about some of the time; I have trouble projecting Zay the same way. . About the guys who are 5th and 6th on the receiving squad, the coaches are going to ask "Why do we need him? What does he do for us?" I think Zay may find that he doesn't offer as good an answer to those questions than some other guys who've had less NFL playing time. And one final thought: the questions for the coaches change if they're getting good tight end production. If the tight end is a threat in the offense, then maybe Zay's steady experience and nice route running becomes more of an asset in the game. On the other hand, a good TE game also could mean that the offense can afford to take more of a risk with the last receiver on the field, and then, again, the others might offer more than Zay. I don't know how it will go, but I think Zay has serious competition. It didn't seem like it was likely three months ago, but I think it's serious now. Thanks again to everyone for some great discussion. EDIT: And my apologies. I seemed to have just rehashed what others said in the last hour.

McD loves the high motor, intense competitor guys. I've started wondering whether there's too much focus on that type of player. Maybe you can't have too many of them. They got Murphy based on his motor. Maybe he will still work out. I just give as an example.

I know. What you say makes some sense, but not enough to convince me. As I said, I've changed my mind about Zay. I used to say what you're saying. I think Zay will have a decent career in the league - five or six years or eight years. He can have a career that might approach but not quite get to what Cotchery did. People will be happy to have him on their team, he'll fill a need, but he's not going to be anyone's go-to number 2 for more than a year or two. That's what I see in him now. What I'm saying is that if I'm correct about his upside, it's possible that Williams could be just as good as Zay was last season and have better upside. And I'm saying that even could be true about Sills. Since Zay isn't likely to be the one driving the receiving corps - much more likely that's Beasley or Brown - Zay may not be all that important to the Bills in 2019, and even less important in 2020. If Williams turns out to be his equal in 2019, Zay's in trouble.

All true. We'll know in September.

Hap - You make good points. And we both know we're both just amateurs at this. All we can do is wait and see what happens. In particular, Sills has to be a long shot, for exactly the reasons you give. The Bills took exactly that long shot on Foster last season, as you point out. So I wouldn't count him out for that reason. And particularly in particular Williams. You seem a bit stuck on his history, which is undeniable. Put the history aside for a moment. Physically, the guy is superior to Zay. He just is. His behavior has been under control for two years and he's playing for a coach who teaches a personal philosophy that is exactly what Williams needs. I don't think it's a stretch to think that Williams could be better than Zay out of the box and has a higher upside. I think there was an eight minutes of Bills' drops video. It wasn't just Zay. I have to say that when I saw it, I was surprised how many ugly drops Zay had in 2018. I thought he had improved, and he had. Just not so much as I remember.

You know, I've defended Zay for two years, and I'm starting to see him differently now. I'm having trouble identifying anything that he really does well. He's just out there, pretty good at taking what the game is giving to him, but not making anything happen himself. I can see him getting better at aspects of the game, but not being someone who drives the game, even a little. He's not ever going to be a solid number 2 receiver. To be a good no. 2 you need something special. You need to be like Robert Woods, who almost looks like a one but never really gets there. You need to be a big-time possession receiver. You need to stand out at something, and I'm not getting that from Zay. I think it would be unusual to let a second round guy go after only two seasons, so I'm not saying it WILL happen. That said, I'm not going to be surprised if it DOES happen.

The incident at Auburn was, I believe, his SECOND problem. He got Auburn from junior college. He was in junior college because he got into some trouble coming out of high school or early at some other D-1 school. Junior college was something like his last chance, he succeeded, got to Auburn. Then he had the incident. When the Rams signed him, it was sort of like another last chance. He wasn't ready. Canada was REALLY the last chance, and he seems to have turned his life around. Problem is that there's always the fear that he'll screw up again. He's had a pretty bumpy road to get to a real opportunity in the NFL. It isn't clear whether he's going to take advantage of it.

Yeah, it's absolutely rose colored. Maybe he just can't do it. But the picture of the guy is very clear: if there is any way, any way at all that he CAN do it, he WILL. This is one determined dude. May not be good enough, may screw up, may not make it for any number of reasons. But this is second-round talent with new-found determination to succeed that has stayed on track for two years. If he makes it, he's beating out Zay. Zay's not safe. It sounds like this guy is as good or better than Zay at everything. Definitely at making the big, contested catch. But also route running, runs after catch, blocking. He's a tough dude in all aspects of the game, and that's something we never say about Zay.

I agree with you. I think this is an unusual guy - a guy who had round one or round two written all over him who completely blew up his life. Now, it seems, he's back on track. Think about that for a minute - this is round one, round two talent who's been sitting on a shelf somewhere, doing more or less nothing. And now, it seems, he's back on track. I watch the video (not today, but back when he signed) and I am amazed at his hands. He fights for balls all day long. I wrote this several weeks ago talking about Williams: he's in Buffalo because he identified McDermott as a father-figure or an AA leader. This guy is quoted in the article saying he's good so long as he doesn't get off track. He stays on track by staying committed to football, and in McDermott he sees someone preaching exactly what Williams thinks he needs - focus on the right stuff, all the time. McDermott's culture, his values, are exactly what Williams wants for himself. McDermott sees a guy who is, apparently, a genuinely nice guy, straight shooter who turns into a really, really tough competitor when he gets on football field. He sees a guy who will do anything to win football games. The problem is that once he turned into that really, really tough competitor in a bar and did some serious damage to people. McDermott loves that competitive spirit, and he believes his brand of commitment to life and football is perfect for Williams. It's a match made in heaven. I wrote once that Williams is a guy who plays like - LIKE, not necessarily as good as, like Hines Ward. Tough route runner, tough fighting for the ball, tough after the catch, tough blocking. Tough football player. I think we're all in for a treat. And for the old timers, if you think about it, you've heard this story before. One really, really tough, nasty football player, maybe a little too tough for civilized society, comes out of Canada and tears up the league, winning an AFL championship in Buffalo. That was fun, and if Williams makes it he's going to be fun, too.

I suppose I should add this to your thread about Zay, but you read this article, and particularly when you read about his 50-50 ball skills and the fact that he made himself a serious route runner in the slot, it's not hard to imagine Duke ahead of Zay on the depth chart by the end of August. That leaves Zay head to head with Sills.

I hear you, and I'm one who always says you're better off giving up on talent too late than too early. Talent's too hard to come by to give up quick on someone. However, I think Zay has some things working against him. You say you can't let your judgment be clouded by preseason warriors, but consider this: McBeane saw something in Foster last summer. He didn't do much, as I recall, all summer, and no one was clamoring for him to be on the 53. So McBeane stashed him on the practice squad until he matured (and until guys ahead of him struggled), and then they activated him. If McBeane see a similar future or more for Sills and Williams, they probably can't hide them on the practice squad. Foster wasn't in high demand after the draft (again, if I recall correctly) and given how bad the Bills receivers were, other teams probably weren't all that willing to take a chance on him and put on their rosters. After all, if he wasn't in the top six in Buffalo, why would he be in the top six any place else? Williams and Sills are different. Moreover, McD has seen two full years of Zay, and he now has a very good understanding of Zay's upside. As I and others said earlier, Zay doesn't do any one thing special. He just doesn't stand out. Sills and Williams both do. They will be raw, but their potential should be clear, especially Williams, because he has some miles on him now, albeit only in Canada. And remember, McBeane aren't building for this season. They're building for the long term. So, if Zay turns out to be the number four guy - Foster and Brown wide and Beasley in the slot, Zay's not playing a big role in the offense. The Bills know his upside, and if after two years he can't hold onto a position as one of the starting three wideouts, and if Sills and Williams show potential and one of them (probably Williams) can do what Zay already does, Zay could be history. Especially when you know how much Beane likes having those late round picks. I think Zay is in a serious fight for a roster spot.

Well, a couple of things. It's not getting thrown to the curb. More likely he'd be traded. His problem may be that the Bills need to keep guys with better upside. I think someone made a good point: what about Jones is special? Not his speed, his catch radius, not his hands, and no not his route running. I think he runs decent routes, but so do a lot of them. And not his blocking, either. Sills and Williams could both be better possession receivers, and maybe better blockers. Again, no one is flat-out predicting it WILL happen; its just that it COULD happen.

The coaches never talk about how good any of the other teams are. For them, it's all about getting their team to be as good as it can be. I found myself getting excited about the 2019 Bills the other day, and then I remembered just how hard it is to win ANY game in the NFL. These are great, evenly matched teams, and they're all desperate to win. Daboll could be no better this season than last. The new Oline coach may be a failure. There's a new special teams coach, but that doesn't mean they'll be better. The defense might regress. Maybe Edmunds doesn't step up to another level of play. Most importantly, maybe Allen is a perpetual 54% completion guy, no matter what the Bills try to get him to do. If that alone turns out to be true, the Bills will have trouble winning 8 games. What do I think is going to happen? I think the offensive line is going to be better by a wide margin. Morse will take over the leadership of the line, Ford will handle business on the right side, and two veteran guards will step in play reasonably well. The result is that McCoy/Gore/Singletary will exceed 1500 yards. Allen will be over 60% and the Bills will win 9 or more. But people who aren't Bills fans and aren't paying attention still haven't realized that Allen is better than all the pre-draft analysis that said he was a project who only can throw deep. They still don't understand that the Bills acquired an entirely new, experienced offensive line. And they still think McCoy and Gore are way over the hill. I think half way into the season they'll be scratching their heads wondering where the Bills came from.

I used to listen to him a lot, and I don't know about open disdain for him. However, he has been very clear that he gets paid based on how many ears are listening and how many eyes are watching. So your list explains exactly why he says nice things about the Jets and not about the Bills.

Fair enough. I was just piling onto the same reaction others had.

Maybe in your world. The Bills under McBeane are about EVERY DETAIL. One of the details clearly is professional dress at certain times. It might be that professional dress is required whenever Mr. Pegula will be in the room, because he seems always to be in a coat and tie. Whatever the reason, the Bills are ALL ABOUT getting everything right, including how they present to the outside world. It's pretty impressive, whether you think a coat and tie is necessary or not. Friend of mine told me a story. His son got a speeding ticket and asked his father to go with him. Father insisted on a coat and tie. When they got to court, they were the only ones in business dress, and lot of people were in t-shirts, jeans or shorts. The judge said something like "when you come to this courtroom, you're speaking to the State, and you should show the Court and the State the respect it deserves. So if you aren't dressed properly, go home and get yourself cleaned up." When the son's case came up, the judge dismissed the charge, no penalty. It makes a difference.